ایران

In this research, to analyze the trends of precipitation extremes in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Basin, daily precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations over 30 years (1993-2022) were used. Fifteen precipitation extreme indices were extracted for all the studied stations, and their long-term trends were analyzed using Sen's slope estimator. The results indicated a decreasing trend in the annual total precipitation on wet days for the western and central parts and an increasing trend for the eastern parts of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Basin. Consistent with the decreasing trend in annual total precipitation, these two parts of the studied basin experienced a decrease in the number of days with heavy rains (more than 10 mm), very heavy rains (more than 20 mm), extremely heavy rains (more than 30 mm), and maximum consecutive 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitations. However, in the eastern part of the studied basin, the trend of maximum length of dry spells was decreasing. In line with this trend, the number of days with heavy rains (more than 10 mm), very heavy rains (more than 20 mm), extremely heavy rains (more than 30 mm), and maximum consecutive 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitations also showed increasing trends.

The contemporary global landscape is characterized by heightened geopolitical competition, in which energy resources have evolved from being mere support for nations to becoming pivotal elements in the contest for power. This context has transformed corridors into significant arenas for competition, as each country endeavors to establish its position within the intricate network created by these emerging corridors. In this regard, the prevailing global geopolitical trend has intensified the competition over maritime chokepoints and secured access to cross-border markets.This research serves as a theoretical foundation, employing a descriptive-analytical methodology that incorporates a comparative approach, utilizing library and internet resources for data collection. Within the chronopolitical framework of Iran-Iraq relations, each actor strives to delineate its role in international corridors while pursuing various objectives. For instance, Iraq is actively engaged in the "FAW Corridor" initiative, whereas Iran seeks to expand economic cooperation and secure a place in the burgeoning alliances of the East. While it is challenging to make definitive predictions regarding the future of relations between the two countries from a chronopolitical perspective, emerging signs suggest a trend toward diminished cooperation and increased competition, influenced by a multitude of variables. A key indicator of this potential competition is the rivalry over transit routes (corridors).

Water is a strategic and scarce resource that has become increasingly limited in recent years due to a variety of national and transnational factors, significantly impacting security, stability, development, and prosperity in various countries. The profound influence of water on these domains has positioned it at the forefront of the foreign policy and hydropolitical relations of numerous nations, including those in South West Asia. In recent years, despite the prominence of the water crisis and its implications for the relations between Iran and Iraq within scholarly, political, and media discussions, the complexities of this issue remain poorly understood, leading to disparate interpretations. The current research, which is exploratory in nature, utilized library methods for data collection with the aim of achieving a qualitative understanding of the multifaceted hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq. This study not only seeks to identify the content and methodological characteristics of existing literature but also aims to uncover research gaps in this field employing a qualitative meta-analysis approach. Through this method, the research examined 34 studies published between 2014 and 2023, including domestic scientific articles, theses, and contributions to reputable international journals. The findings indicate that a comprehensive analysis of the various dimensions of hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq has yet to be undertaken. In this context, the absence of accurate and reliable data, alongside the inadequacy of theoretical and cognitive frameworks, represents significant deficiencies in the existing research on the bilateral relations of these two countries.

Precipitation is the most important factor in the hydrological cycle, which has many temporal and spatial changes. The use of satellite precipitation data can be of great use in climatic and hydrological research, especially in areas without rainfall statistics. Over the past three decades, a large number of satellite-derived global precipitation datasets have been developed and used. The purpose of the current research is to investigate the accuracy of the satellite precipitation data of the PERSIANN family products, which includes: PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN-CDR and PERSIANN-PDIR. For this purpose, the daily, monthly and annual data of these products were compared with the observational data of 129 meteorological stations in Iran and in the period of 2008-2022. The evaluation of the accuracy of satellite precipitation data was done using CC and RMSE statistical indices and POD, FAR, CSI, HSS and KSS Categorical metrics. The results on a daily scale indicate the better efficiency of the PERSIANN-PDIR source with correlation and RMSE is 0.30 and 3.4 mm respectively and better performance in POD, CSI and KSS indices. In the monthly and annual scale, PERSIANN-CDR has the best estimation in monthly and annual precipitation with correlation values of 0.81, 0.78 and RMSE 23.4 and 152.7 mm. The PERSIANN source has an underestimation of annual precipitation and the PERSIANN-CCS source also has an overestimation of precipitation. However, in the high rainfall areas located in the northern belt and the Zagros mountain range, PERSIANN family products reported the annual rainfall lower than the actual amount and perform better on a monthly scale than on a daily and annual scale.

 The tourism industry is considered a main driver of economic growth, and good governance is required to ensure the security of property rights, contract enforcement, and collective action. The tourism industry, especially in Iran, due to its historical, cultural, and natural attractions, should be given more attention than in the past, and appropriate policies should be taken into account. Therefore, this research investigates the demand for tourism in Iran by considering the indicators related to good governance separately.

 This research uses data from 1996 to 2020 and the Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) method, in addition to economic growth and exchange rate, to examine the effect of good governance dimensions on Iran's tourism industry in six separate models.

 The findings show that among the six indicators of good governance, only two dimensions of governance, i.e., rule of law and government effectiveness, have a statistically significant and positive effect on the demand for tourism in Iran. Also, the findings indicate that the type of party that controls the government does not have a statistically significant effect on the demand for tourism, while an increase in economic growth and a decrease in the value of the national currency always increase the arrival of tourists.

Therefore, to strengthen the development of sustainable tourism, policymakers must apply and adhere to high-quality governance practices, as well as effective government policies, a stable political and economic environment, and a positive and stable image of the country.

In examining the impact of governance on the tourism industry, with a few exceptions, most of the empirical studies are dedicated to developed or developing countries without considering Iran and the impact of one or two determinants of governance on the tourism sector, at the level of country case studies or as a cross-sectional comparative analysis In addition to filling this research gap, the present study investigated the importance of governance quality in the development and motivation of tourism in Iran by using the six governance indicators provided by the World Bank.

Iran is one of the countries that is prone to natural hazards due to its geographical situation. One of the risks that has always threatened Iran is the risk of earthquakes. The land of Iran, as a part of the active tectonic zone of the Alps-Himalayas, has been affected by many tectonic activities over time, such as the appearance of the Zagros-Makran and Alborz-Kope Dagh mountain ranges in the Iranian plateau as a result of subduction of the Arabian plates. The Indian Ocean is one of the landforms resulting from this convergence. According to the geological situation of the Iranian plateau, this plateau is facing many disturbances and this problem has caused Iran to be one of the earthquake-prone countries in the world. Earthquake is the most important natural hazard that is always associated with a lot of human and financial losses. Due to its unpredictability and its power, this hazard has faced serious challenges in the seismic regions of the world. In fact, large earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters, which often lead to widespread casualties and many deaths, and many cities are vulnerable to large earthquakes. Among the areas that are vulnerable to the risk of earthquakes are the metropolises because they house a large part of the country's population. According to the statistics of 2015, the metropolitan cities of Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, Tabriz, Qom, Ahvaz and Kermanshah include about 27% of the country's population. Due to the importance of the subject, in this research, the seismic status of Iran's metropolises has been evaluated.

In this research, information related to the epicenter of earthquakes recorded in Iran during the years 1286 to 1402 (1907 to 2023), demographic information of Iranian metropolises, statistical information related to the state of constructions of metropolises, and also The information obtained from satellite images has been used as the most important research data. The most important research tools are ArcGIS (to prepare the required maps) and SPSS (to analyze the data). Also, in this research, the Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) model was used in order to weight the parameters. According to the desired goals, this research has been done in two general stages. In the first stage, a 100 km boundary is defined for each metropolis, and then the earthquakes that occurred in this area are identified. In the following, the earthquakes that occurred in metropolitan areas have been analyzed in terms of number and size. In the second stage, based on 6 parameters, the state of vulnerability of metropolises has been evaluated. After evaluating the metropolises in terms of the desired parameters, first the parameters were normalized and then the parameters were weighted using the AHP model.

The results of the evaluation of earthquakes that occurred in the outskirts of 100 kilometers of metropolises have shown that the largest number of earthquakes with 390 recorded cases was related to the outskirts of Shiraz metropolis, and Isfahan and Qom metropolises recorded 19 and 20 respectively. Have the least number of earthquakes. Also, the results of the survey of the number of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6 on the Richter scale have shown that the outskirts of the metropolises of Shiraz and Kermanshah had the largest number of earthquakes with 4 earthquakes, and the outskirts of the metropolises of Isfahan and Ahvaz There has been no earthquake with a magnitude greater than 6 on the Richter scale. Considering that in addition to earthquakes, other factors are also effective in determining the vulnerability of metropolises against earthquake hazards, in this study, population parameters, population density, percentage of open space and percentage of worn-out fabric are also used. Has been According to the results, the largest population was related to Tehran city. The highest population density was related to the city of Mashhad. The highest percentage of worn out fabric was related to the city of Tehran and the lowest percentage of open space was related to the city of Tehran.

The results of this research have shown that Iran's metropolises have different seismic potentials due to their geo-structural position, and also, under the influence of various population factors and constructions, different potentials in terms of damage. They are resistant to earthquakes. In this research, in order to investigate the seismic status of metropolises, the earthquakes that occurred within 100 kilometers of them have been analyzed. According to the results, during the years 1286 to 1402, 999 earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 3 on the Richter scale occurred within a radius of 100 km from these metropolises, 15 of which had a magnitude of more than 6 on the Richter scale. Is. The results of the analysis of earthquakes have shown that the largest number of earthquakes occurred in the metropolitan areas of Shiraz, Ahvaz and Kermanshah, so that 390, 186 and 147 earthquakes occurred in these metropolitan areas, respectively. The lowest number of earthquakes with 19 and 20 cases respectively was related to the metropolitan areas of Isfahan and Qom. Also, the largest number of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6 on the Richter scale was related to the metropolitan areas of Shiraz and Kermanshah. The results of this section have shown that the seismic status of Iran's metropolises has been very different, and considering that in addition to the number of earthquakes, various human parameters are also effective in the degree of vulnerability to earthquakes, in this research Based on different parameters, the state of vulnerability of metropolises was evaluated. Based on the results, Shiraz metropolis with a total score of 17.68 is considered the most vulnerable metropolis in the country against earthquake risk. After this metropolis, Kermanshah and Tehran metropolises have the highest vulnerability potential with 13.12 and 10.87 points, respectively. Also, Isfahan metropolis with a total of 2.75 points has the lowest vulnerability potential among the metropolises of the country, and after that, Ahvaz and Qom metropolises have the lowest with 5.72 and 6.66 points, respectively. They are potential vulnerabilities.

Geopolitics is a product of its time and its definitions have evolved accordingly. Geopolitics is defined as the study of the interrelationships of geography, power, politics and the actions resulting from them. Geopolitics is a study that combines human geography and applied political science, which dates back to the times of Aristotle, Montesquieu and Kant. Geopolitics is the analysis of power competition over land. In many cases, the territories are objectively devoid of economic or strategic usefulness. The credibility that is considered for representations in geopolitical analysis, in turn, causes the expansion of the field of geography. Geopolitics has taken different approaches and definitions with historical periods and with the change of the global geopolitical system.

The present research is descriptive-analytical and has both applied and theoretical objectives.The required sources and information for this research have been collected throughdocumentary and library research, utilizing books, scientific articles, and reputable websites(governmental, non-governmental, news agencies, etc.).

The Islamic Republic of Iran has always tried to have a balanced policy towards its neighbors and in this direction, it has tried to solve the differences between the parties. Therefore, the issue of Iran's interest in creating peace towards its neighbors is not a new issue and has been on Iran's agenda since the past. If we take the priority of Iran's foreign policy in the region based on security issues, in order to maintain its security and territorial integrity and consequently the security of its surrounding environment, Iran must seek stability in its borders and surrounding countries, if the priority of its policies consider the regional economic interests, economic stability, regional stability is a prerequisite for any extensive economic relations. Iran's view of the South Caucasus region was also a result of these two priorities.

Due to its geopolitical location, South Caucasus has always been very important for Iran's national security. As a regional power, Iran attaches special importance and priority to the South Caucasus region in its security policy. This policy is based on two realistic and pragmatic factors based on national interests and geopolitical considerations. Iran is trying to create a security structure based on factors such as border security, territorial integrity, national unity, stability and economic development. From Iran's point of view, this region is facing numerous threats and challenges in terms of security, and it is necessary to ensure security and maintain regional stability, the cooperation of all countries in the region without the interference and presence of powers outside the region. The crisis-causing geopolitical factors of the South Caucasus have brought the continuation of tension-causing factors in the region and led to the presence of regional and extra-regional powers in the South Caucasus. For this reason, Iran as an important regional power, considering the possibility of exerting influence in the region, the following factors should be taken into consideration as factors affecting geopolitical goals and approaches: -Caucasus region is considered to be Iran's geopolitical complement and Iran's strategic depth. On the one hand, due to critical points such as Karabagh, which is located next to the geographical borders of Iran, and on the other hand, due to identity reasons, there is a possibility of spreading ethnic conflicts in the northern regions of Iran. -Caucasus is the entry way to European countries and can contribute to the variety of transportation and transit points. Iran is closer to Europe through the South Caucasus borders and can reduce its dependence on Türkiye's communication routes. On the other hand, the Caucasus Ring is the connection between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. with Turkey; So that the two countries of Iran and Turkey can improve their hydropolitical relations with each other in Arvandroud and Aras basins with a conciliatory approach. In general, it can be concluded that the process and apparatus of water diplomacy in the hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq in the transboundary river basin of Arvandroud since 1847 AD. So far it has been passive. One of the important reasons for this is 1) the continuation of disputes over the ownership of Arvandrod River; 2) Türkiye's indiscriminate dam constructions in the upstream of the basin; 3) decrease in river water quality; 4) Türkiye's instrumental view of water; 5) Intensification of the fine dust crisis in Iran and Iraq; 6) The deviation of the river's path is indicated.

Street is a primary component of the establishment of cities. Given the continuity of its functional dimensions over time, it constitutes a key element in the appearance of the spatial organization and subsequently, of the urban landscape. The functional role of the street has been merged with its other roles, to be precise: the social, cultural, economic, or political; fact which caused the complexity of its existential dimensions. Thus, this role constantly oscillates on a spectrum between the function (access, passage) and the user’s experience in the urban space. The present paper is an essay on reading the street landscape to state its role in explaining the meaning of the city, by going through a historical trajectory around the cities of Iran from Antiquity until the end of the Safavid reign. The question of this research is How did the street, as a multidimensional element, influence the formation of the material and semantic aspects of Iranian cities before and after the emergence of Islam? The hypothesis of this research is The street landscape in Iranian cities has always had a ritual character and its role has been to conduct the nature of the urban landscape from a sacred fact toward a social one during the historical evolutions in Iran.

Defining effective mechanisms, this research seeks to design a model for establishing integrated regional governance in Iran, realizing "convergent interaction" with a flexible structure with macro and micro players, resource mobilization for redistribution, development, and improvement of resource allocation in an integrated manner. The main research question addressed in this research is: "What mechanisms can be formulated for the establishment of integrated regional governance in Iran? "This research was conducted using the grounded theory method. The statistical population included experts and managers of macro-level and micro-level ministries selected through the snowball sampling technique. Based on the theoretical summary and the results of the opinion of the expert panel, to design a model for the establishment of integrated regional governance in Iran, it is necessary to define mechanisms. First, the conditions that led to this were formulated with propositions such as decentralization in the planning system and political-administrative decentralization which directly affect the main category of "spatial management." The next layer involves the governing platform  with the definition of institutional-legal, economic, and environmental mechanisms. The next level is the intervening conditions by defining the mechanisms of reforming the educational system and reforming the culture. Finally, all these levels related to the actions and interactions by defining the mechanisms of reforming the management structure with an integration approach, can create structures to realize the model of the establishment of integrated governance in Iran. Therefore, integrated regional governance in Iran will be made by multi-level governance systems with complex configurations of connecting structures and mechanisms at different levels.

One of the important climatic events that has a great impact on the life of living organisms is extreme temperature events. Cold days and cold waves are examples of extreme temperature events in which unusual minimum temperature values are observed. The creation of these temperature conditions is a function of complex synoptic and dynamic patterns, the identification of which can be useful in increasing awareness of how these conditions are formed and predicting similar situations and thus reducing possible damages. In this research, based on the concept of relative coldness in time and place, cold wave was defined as a condition in which the minimum temperature standard score is less than -1.2; continue for at least 3 days and cover more than 20% of the country's area. In order to meet the objectives of the present research, two environmental (minimum temperature) and atmospheric databases (sea level pressure, geopotential height, atmospheric temperature and orbital and meridional wind component) were used for the winters of 1339 to 1394. The results of examining the patterns showed that all the cold waves in the country were caused by the formation of a high-pressure pattern on the surface of the earth. The arrangement of the two high-pressure systems of Siberia and Azores have played a very important role in guiding the cold air of northern latitudes towards the country. The location of sub-arctic low pressure in the northern regions of Europe and Russia has also caused the cold polar air to move to more southern latitudes. Mid-atmosphere patterns have also had a significant impact on the creation and continuation of cold waves. In such a way that the most severe, widespread and continuous winter cold waves were formed when the barrier systems were established in Eastern Europe and their eastern flank was placed over Iran.

The feasibility of any policy document includes understanding the strategic environment of the document development. In such a way that by understanding the strategic environment of the document, the strategic action position as the field of document implementation should be considered in accordance with the prevailing conditions. (Vision document) is a document that expresses the idea of creating, values or a future state of a specific organisation, product or service better than today. In the field of statecraft, vision documents have played and continue to play an irreplaceable role as the basis for the implementation of policies and strategies. These documents act as a link between the ideology of governance and space, as a vital facilitator of the dynamics of the mechanism of policy and space, creating a visible and perceptible space. Vision documents, with a future-oriented view, organise future developments to best meet the current needs of societies and play an effective role in strengthening their central idea. For a developing country, the vision document is not used as a political statement, but as a tool for development planning. Given the importance of matching the geopolitical propositions of the model document with its strategic environment, this article uses a descriptive and analytical method and utilises library and field resources to examine the extent to which the geopolitical propositions of the model document matched the strategic realities of the country in the early fifteenth century.

The research mostly aims to investigate the correlation analysis of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index   and drought and wet years in Iran on a monthly basis. To this aim, a correlation analysis was performed between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of 63 synoptic stations in Iran and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. The findings suggested that in autumn, a moderate positive correlation was noted between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Index and    drought and wet years in Iran in a one-month lag. In other words, droughts of the autumn season in Iran occurred in the negative phase while wet years in the positive phase of this index. In the winter, however, no significant correlation was noted between the drought and wet years in Iran and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index. It was also noted in springs that there was a negative correlation between drought and wet years in Iran, especially in its southern parts and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index. In other words, the droughts in this season in Iran occurred in the positive phase while the wet years in the negative phase, i.e., exactly the opposite of the relationship seen in the autumn.

It is essential to disclose or evaluate the impacts of global warming and climate change on temperature in order to account for the climate variations in each given area, such as Iran. This research aimed to assess the effectiveness of the MPI-ESM-LR model, a part of the CMIP5 model series, in evaluating the seasonal anomaly of Iran's temperature. It addressed the lack of comprehensive studies on modeling and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature events in Iran. This study focused on different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to provide a comprehensive analysis. It examined two time periods, including the historical eras (1980–2005) and the future (2021–2100). The analysis was done based on the CORDEX-WAS dynamical downscaling approach at the station size. The present study aimed to provide solutions to the following two questions: Is the described model, which utilizes the CORDEX dynamical downscaling approach, capable of accurately forecasting seasonal temperature fluctuations in Iran with little error? Will there be a rise in air temperature conditions on a seasonal scale in the future?

Eight models, namely CanESM2, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2M, ICHEC-EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M, were examined to determine the optimum model for forecasting Iran's seasonal temperature. The verification findings of the preceding models indicate that the MPI-ESM-LR model exhibits the least bias, making it the most accurate model for forecasting Iran's seasonal temperature in future periods. To verify the accuracy of the air temperature data obtained from the MPI-ESM-LR model, a total of 49 synoptic stations were chosen across the country. This selection was made based on the historical data provided by the CORDEX project, covering the statistical period from 1980 to 2005. This study examined the effectiveness of the MPI-ESM-LR model, a collection of CMIP5 models, in assessing seasonal air temperature in Iran. It focused on three scenarios: RCP 2.6 (optimistic), RCP 4.5 (moderate), and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic). The research analyzed the seasonal temperature anomaly in Iran for three time periods: the near future (2021-2050), the middle future (2051-2075), and the distant future (2076-2100). The time frame spanning from 1980 to 2005 was designated as the historical period for comparing the data collected from synoptic stations with the simulations generated by CMIP5 models. The validity of observational and modeled data from 1980 to 2005 has been assessed using statistical measures such as the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The non-parametric sense approach was employed to calculate the slope of the data trend in the time series. The present study utilized CORDEX-WAS dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.44 arc degrees. The dynamical downscaling was performed using the RCA4 model for regional climate modeling (RCM) and the r1i1p1 ensemble.

The findings indicated that the MPI-ESM-LR model, when implemented with the CORDEX dynamical downscaling approach, demonstrates a high level of accuracy in forecasting seasonal temperature extremes in Iran. This is evident from its average correlation coefficient of 0.99, average RMSE index of 0.55° c, and MBE of -0.3° c. The majority of stations have mean square error values that are below 1 ° c. The greatest bias was found in Bandar Lengeh, with a deviation of 1.6° c, while the smallest bias was found in Sanandaj, with a deviation of 0.06° c. The average error deviation index reveals that Khorram Abad had the highest positive skewness, measuring 0.81° c, whereas Dushan Tappeh displayed the highest negative skewness, measuring -1.8°c. Throughout the year, the lowest rise in air temperature under the 2.6 RCP scenario in the distant future is 7.1°, 21.5°, 25.7°, and 10.8° c. The highest temperature increase in the pessimistic scenario is 8.5 RCP in the distant future. The expected temperatures for winter, spring, summer, and autumn are 10.5°, 25.7°, 30.3°, and 14.9° c, respectively. During the historical period, the mean air temperature in winter, spring, summer, and autumn was 6.3°, 20.3°, 24.8°, and 9.9° c, respectively. In RCP 2.6, the spring, summer, and autumn seasons exhibit a declining trend in temperature. Specifically, the temperature decreases by -0.037°, -0.075°, and -0.037 ° c every decade, respectively. However, in other times and scenarios, the model and station data from the historical period consistently demonstrate a rising temperature trend throughout all seasons. During the winter season, the highest deviation from the average temperature occurs in the Zagros, Sablan, and Sahand Mountains in the western and northwestern regions of the country. Conversely, the lowest deviation from the average temperature is observed in the low-altitude parts of the desert plain and the eastern slopes of Shirkouh. During the spring season, the northwest and Zagros mountains have the most deviation from the average maximum temperature, while the coastal parts of the Caspian and the eastern part of the country see the lowest deviation from the average minimum temperature. During the summer season, the northwest and western regions of the country have had the highest temperature anomalies in most times and scenarios. Conversely, the southeast regions of Jask and Chabahar have shown the lowest temperature anomalies. During the autumn season, the eastern half of the country, particularly the southeastern region and the Lut plain, experience the most deviation in temperature. The lowest temperature anomaly occurs mostly in the elevated regions of Talesh and Sabalan and sometimes on the western slopes of the Zagros Mountains.

Regarding the projected increase in air temperature in the upcoming decades and the concern of water stress, it is recommended to carefully strategize future water management, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. This planning should take into account population growth as well as the development of industrial and agricultural sectors. Additionally, the impact of climate change on water demand and water resources must be taken into consideration.

Spatial diversity and temporal variability of natural phenomena make their study time-consuming and difficult. On the other hand, there are mutual relationship between the phenomena and aspects and the position of their performance, that have spatial and temporal homogeneity. Based on these criteria, space (time) can be divided into independent units (Kavyani and Alijani, 2001: 344). therefore, classification is the systematic grouping of phenomena or events that have common characteristics or relationships within groups (Heydari, 1999: 8). Climatic phenomena are one of the important and most variety things in the nature of the world. There is no environmental-climatic phenomenon that is not caused by a specific pattern of air pressure distribution (Alijani, 2006: 201). Air pressure is an element that can be used to determine the characteristics of climatic elements, including temperature, precipitation, etc... Therefore, pressure systems are the main and independent factors that control characteristics of humidity, temperature and pressure with their temporal and spatial changes. Most of these pressure systems have a medium or synoptic scale (Boucher, 2006: 5). Therefore, in this study, sea level pressure was chosen as the climate index. Heavy rainfalls are one of the climate phenomena that can have many effects on the environment. This kind of rainfalls are most important natural reason of floods that cause irreparable damage to the natural environment and human societies. Therefore, the study of heavy rainfalls, especially in pervasive areas, is essential to understand the behavior of this type of rains. Identifying the behavior of this type of precipitation is an important step in water resources management. According to the amount of available data and for the ease of knowing the behavior of heavy rainfalls, we will need to use classification. Because despite the variety of patterns leading to heavy rainfall, there are similarities in these patterns.

In this research, heavy and pervasive rainfall in Iran has been studied by using the third version of Esfazari database. For this purpose, the values of the 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on rainy days were calculated for all cells of the map. This means that for each cell a specific threshold was obtained. Then, data above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles were identified respectively as heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rain days. To determine the threshold for the definition of " pervasive rainfall " in this research, at first, anomaly of heavy rainfall area was calculated, and then the days with a positive anomaly was selected. Then the 75th percentile of the area of the selected days were obtained. The 75th percentile value obtained for the mentioned days is equal to 16% of the country's area and it was determined as the threshold of pervasive area. Result shows that 160 days with pervasive heavy rainfall (with precipitation equal or more than 90th percentile) occurred during the study period. Rainfall data of 160 days classified by using Binary cluster analysis. For this purpose, the Euclidean distance method and "Ward" linkage method were used. After identifying the number of heavy rainfall patterns, Indicator Days for each pattern identified by using correlation method (Lund) and the average area method. After identifying the Indicator days by both methods, by using sea level maps and the upper atmosphere levels and checking moisture convergence flux maps, Omega and statistical methods, the Indicator days obtained through both methods are compared.

As mentioned above, 160 days with pervasive heavy rainfall were identified and then classified by using binary cluster analysis method. Result show that the 160 studied days are placed in 10 groups (patterns). After determining the number of patterns, the indicator days for each pattern were identified by using correlation method and the average area method. Then, the indicator (obtained from both methods) days were compared by using sea level pressure maps and upper atmosphere levels and checking moisture convergence flux maps, Omega and statistical methods. Result show that average area method can choose indicator days better than correlation method. In the other hand indicator days chosen by correlation method most of the patterns are attributed to the Red sea low pressure and the role of other factors is small or ignored. For example, in this method, the role of the Indian Ocean in providing moisture for the heavy rains in the east and southeast of the country has been very small. But on the indicator days selected by the area average method, the pressure centers are arranged in such a way that a relative balance has been established in the role of factors that cause heavy rainfall.

The results of this research show that 160 days with heavy rainfall (with precipitation equal or more than 90th percentile) and in the area of more than 16% of the country (pervasive) occurred during the study period. The classification shows that 8 synoptic patterns cause heavy rainfalls. Also, Result show that average area method can choose indicator days better than correlation method.

Local differences in the capacity of water resources, their exploitation and development outcomes resulting from water resources consumption are among the main challenges facing policymakers, planners and local communities. Iran is one of the countries facing a crisis in managing the consumption of water resources, and regional development of is not directly linked to its water capacities. Accordingly, the main question raised in this study is whether the development outcomes of water resources exploitation have been consistent with their capacity and extent of consumption in Iran. Drawing on a descriptive-analytical method and based on spatial data and official statistical reports on the state of water production and consumption on the one hand and analysis of the general indices of the global economy (GPD and added value of activities) and mixed development indicators (Gini coefficient and human development index) on the other hand, this paper looks into the relationship between water exploitation and its development outcomes in Iranian provinces. The argument presented in this research is that there is no correlation between the water capacities of different regions of Iran and the extent of their water exploitation and development outcomes. The analysis of the research findings shows that spatial, provisional and regional differences exploitation of water resources and the formation of development patterns inconsistent with capacities and natural and ecological resources will escalate debates on uneven and unbalanced development between regions and provinces of Iran. Further, enhanced exploitation of water in regions with high water demand and lower economic growth and added value in regional development plans should be given high priority.

Background and security challenges in border areas have internal or external origins and are formed in military, cultural, economic and political formats. Developments on both sides of the border, especially in areas with common ethnic-cultural obstacles, can spread security-political consequences as quickly as possible. Considering the recent developments, the present research seeks to identify the consequences of the second Karabakh war on the security of the northwestern borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this research, a qualitative method with an exploratory approach has been used. The data collection tool was a semi-structured interview, whose face and content validity and reliability were confirmed using the coders' consensus process. The statistical population of the research includes commanders and experts familiar with the subject of the research, who have been interviewed with a theoretical saturation of 28 people. Data analysis has been done using the three-level theme analysis technique (basic, organizing and inclusive themes). The findings of the research through qualitative analysis and examination of the codes of basic and organizing themes, including 5 categories of inclusive political-security, social, cultural, economic, security and law enforcement themes and organizing themes including 12 categories: creation of insecurity, ethnic differences. - Religious, vandalism, influence, economic pressure, border change and geopolitics, disruption in transportation and separatism and 218 basic themes. The results of the above research show that through the examination of the codes of basic, organizing and ultimately inclusive themes, it can be concluded that the security parameters of the Second Karabakh War in all political, social, cultural, economic and security areas of the northern borders It includes the West, which can affect the national security of the country and consequently affect all parts of the country.

The political organization of space has been used as a framework and platform for land administration since long ago by various societies, from primitive societies to empires and today’s modern governments. The present research is practical in terms of purpose and qualitative in terms of methodology. Data collecting was done through in-depth interviews and focus groups, and data analysis was done through discourse analysis. The study results showed that, firstly, the formation of unrealistic bureaucracy, weakness of budgeting system, weakness of participatory system, homogenization of geographical space, inefficient management system, one-way flow of ruling from top to bottom, weakness of discourse of justification and propaganda, and taking advantage of the in creasing requests for promotion in political compttitions have damaged the political organization of the current space and caused the inefficiency of the national divisions system. And secondly, "type of ruling ideology", "contradiction between the political spatial structure of the country and historical-social realities" and "indecisiveness in the use of an authoritarian and democratic approach" were identified as the ideological indecisiveness of this discourse.

Housing is recognized as a basic human right in the constitutions and declarations of many countries, with various policies addressing this need. In Iran, housing policy initiatives began with the Third Development Plan and were reinforced after the Revolution when housing became a constitutional right. However, housing provision remains a challenge. Therefore, it is crucial to examine Iran's housing policies over time and compare them with global strategies. This study uses library-based data collection to examine Iranian housing policies through historical-comparative content analysis. It explores how the goals and content of housing policies have evolved from the Revolution to 2021 and identifies which global housing approaches were adopted in each period. A public-policy content analysis framework was selected, focusing on objectives, tools, and key institutions. Major policy documents from each period were analyzed within this framework to identify the global approach applied in each phase. The findings indicate that Iran’s housing policies throughout the analyzed period largely aligned with global approaches used until the early 1980s, with a focus on social objectives, shifting to economic goals thereafter. Correspondingly, the tools utilized predominantly included special concessions and loans, regulatory delegation, command-based laws, financial support for stakeholders, and direct provision of goods. The pivotal role of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development has led to the dominance of administrative agencies as the main implementing bodies, with citizens emerging as a secondary group of stakeholders, particularly in light of the increasing importance of public participation in policies.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the beginning, end and length of the snow season in Iran. For this purpose, daily data from the MODIS, spanning from 20/03/2000 to 19/03/2020, was obtained from the NASA website at a spatial resolution of 500 meters. First, temporal and spatial filters were applied to eliminate the impact of cloudiness on the data. Furthermore, the first day when a cell was reported to have snow cover (based on the elapsed days since the start of Mehr) was determined for every water year. This process was conducted separately for each water year, ultimately yielding a matrix of dimensions 20 × 7541502, where each row represented the first day that the MODIS detected snow on a given cell, and each column represented a spatial cell. Similarly, the same procedure was employed to calculate the end and length of snow season. The findings indicate that, in general, the beginning of snow season is shifting towards the winter season in the western parts of the country. Conversely, in the northwestern regions, including the northern slopes of Alborz and certain areas of the southern Zagros, the beginning of snow season is transitioning towards the autumn season. Moreover, in many highland areas in the west and northwest, as well as on the Alborz mountain range, the end of the snow season is progressively occurring towards late winter and spring.

Nourabad of Fars, like other geographical spaces, has been affected by geopolitical trends. This trend has affected it both on a neighboring and extraterritorial scale. In the meantime, the active actor of Iran could have greatly influenced this trend and emerged as a global player at least up to the border of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, and at most, as a global player. In general, these trends have affected the country of Iran and also on an internal scale, Nourabad of Fars, and suddenly, its elite human resources realized that they were not fluent in the first language of the world and were isolated and far from the global network. Along with the effective geopolitical trends, climate change and drought made this human (Iranian and Nourabad of Fars) vulnerable and made the conditions difficult and challenging for them. Geopolitical trends are those forces that are created by actors and affect national and intra-national spaces. Sometimes geopolitical trends cause development, in which case countries are guided by measured governance in the direction of the trends and are absorbed in them, but most often they cause underdevelopment because governance is against the trends or is in conflict with them. Therefore, it can be said that in parallel with inward-oriented statecraft, geopolitical trends have caused Iran's territorial isolation and backwardness from the communication network and integrated geographical scope.