spi index

Drought is the most damaging natural phenomenon that occurs in all climates of the world, even in humid regions. Agricultural drought not only damages crops and causes changes in vegetation cover, but also causes social and economic damage. The aim of this study is to monitor agricultural drought and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of drought severity in the Aras River Basin for the vegetation growth months (April to July) in the statistical period 2012 to 2021. To assess drought conditions, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from precipitation data from 7 synoptic stations was used as the dependent variable, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Conditions Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were used as independent variables. The results of the correlation between meteorological indices and satellite indices showed that the SPI index has the highest correlation with the VCI index. This index also had high accuracy compared to other indices based on validation criteria, indicating its ability to monitor agricultural drought. Examination of classified drought severity maps based on SPI, VCI, VHI, and NDVI indices showed that April and May were the wettest months and July was the driest month. According to the TCI index, April was the driest month and July was the wettest month during the statistical period, and in all indices, 2021 was accompanied by severe drought. In terms of location, stations located in the western half of the Aras River Basin had more severe drought and rainfall deficiency than stations in its eastern half.

Drought is one of the most complex natural disasters that causes economic, social and environmental damage and is often described as a creeping phenomenon. Drought monitoring using satellite images can represent the severity of drought in areas with a lack of meteorological precipitation data and compensate for its spatial and temporal deficiency. In this research, the drought of Golestan province has been investigated using SPI, TCI, VCI and VHI indices and with the help of MODIS sensor satellite images. Therefore, first, VHI, VCI and TCI drought index maps were extracted. The findings in the TCI index study showed that in 2000, more than 80% of the studied area experienced severe drought. Similarly, in 2010, 2017 and 2018, a significant part of the studied area was in a severe drought situation. By examining the VCI index, 2008, and 2011. The maps also show that a very severe meteorological drought occurred in 2008. In the study of the VHI index during a period of 21 years in the studied area, it showed that the years 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021 have experienced a critical drought situation. Also, in the years 2000, 2008 and 2018, more than 60% of the area of the region was in a very severe drought situation. In general, most of the studied area is in the range of severe and severe drought classes, which requires attention to the optimal management of water resources in these areas.

Undoubtedly, one of the areas in which drought has a great impact is the water resources of each country, and the areas that have the capability of drought are more limited and sensitive to water resources and require measures before, during and after the drought(Lain and Adamowisky,2012). While the dependence rate of agricultural lands equipped for irrigation on underground water sources is 37.8% on average in the world, the said coefficient is 46.2% in the Middle East region and especially in Iran it is equal to 62.1%. This is a confirmation of the high share of the agricultural sector of groundwater consumption in Iran compared to other countries and even the Middle East region (FAO, 2009). About 85% of the surface of Iran has a dry desert, semi-arid and ultra-arid climate (Ghafouri, 2003). Also, the annual rainfall of Iran is 240-260 mm and less than one third of the average annual rainfall of the world (870 mm). The phenomenon of drought during its occurrence period affects the underground water resources, which unfortunately has been less noticed. One of the important effects of drought is related to the drop of underground water, which due to the lack of rain and snow, there is a sharp decrease in the nutrition of the aquifers, and with the excessive exploitation of these aquifers, the condition of severe drop. Water resources are provided at the water level.

The research area is located in the north of Lake Urmia and the watersheds overlooking the city of Tusuj in the coordinates of 45° 18’ to 45° 33’ east longitude, 38° 20’ to 38° 24’ north latitude. According to different classification methods, the climate of the region is cold, semi-arid, and it is considered a Mediterranean rainfall regime.In this study, one of the important drought indices that is widely used in drought monitoring is the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which was presented by McKay et al.(1993) to determine the probability of drought occurrence. To model the monthly rainfall data, one of the suitable statistical distributions for this task is to use the gamma distribution. The reason for using this distribution is the nature of the statistical distribution itself, in which values close to zero have a frequency with greater probability, and the same nature is also valid for monthly rainfall data (the existence of months without rainfall). In this study, the correlation between the SPI index and the GRI standard groundwater index is investigated and the effect of drought on the GRI index is evaluated with a regression model.

According to the results of the correlation coefficient table, the GRI index has a significant positive correlation with the SPI drought index in the time scale of 48 months for Tasuj station. For Sharafkhane station, the SPI index has a significant negative correlation at a significance level of 0.05 in the time scale of 12 and 24 months. For Khoi station, in all three time scales of 12, 24 and 48 months, there is a significant negative correlation at the significance level of 0.05 and even 0.01. The 48-month drought index of Tasouj, 12-month Sharafkhane and 24-month Khoi, which have the most significant correlation with the GRI index, were entered into the regression model as factors influencing drought to determine the total changes in GRI that were affected by the drought conditions of three stations, to be determined. Therefore, three drought indexes as three independent variables and GRI index as a dependent variable form a linear multivariate regression model.According to the results, the correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination of the model (R Square) are 0.706 and 0.499, respectively, and this indicates that 49.9 percent of the changes in the model are determined or covered by independent variables. A value of 0.000 for Sig. In the analysis of variance (ANOVA) table, it shows the significance and validity of the model. By having regression coefficients, it is possible to reach the relationship between the GRI index and the drought indices of the stations. which is mentioned in relation 1. All coefficients of the model are significant (Sig.=0.000) and indicate the validity of these coefficients. Therefore, the regression relationship of the model can be shown as follows. GRI=0.240+0.923×SPI48(tasouj)-0.235×SPI12(sharaf)-0.559×SPI24(khoy) (1)

The results of the study of the effect of drought on the underground waters of the Tusuj aquifer area indicate a significant correlation between the 24-month drought profile of the Tusuj station, 12-month Sharafkhane and 24-month Khui stations with the GRI standard groundwater profile of the Tusuj aquifer area. The downward trend of the GRI groundwater standard index is consistent with the downward trend of the drought of the Tasuj rain gauge station in three time scales of 12, 24 and 48 months. Of course, despite the fluctuations of the SPI drought index, especially the short-term increase and the occurrence of insignificant drought in some years in Sharafkhaneh and Khoi stations, but due to the accumulation of drought and the dominance of drought years over drought years on the long-term climate memory The region has been affected and has caused a decrease in groundwater and a downward trend in the GRI standard index.For a more accurate statistical analysis, a suitable regression model was determined between the GRI index as a dependent variable and three drought index variables of 48 months of Tasouj, 12 months of Sharafkhane and 24 months of Khoi as dependent variables. which is given in relation (1) as the result of the regression equation. By using this relationship, it is possible to calculate the values of the corresponding GRI standard index by having the SPI drought index values.

IntroductionUndoubtedly, one of the areas in which drought has a great impact is the water resources of each country, and the areas that have the capability of drought are more limited and sensitive to water resources and require measures before, during and after the drought(Lain and Adamowisky,2012). While the dependence rate of agricultural lands equipped for irrigation on underground water sources is 37.8% on average in the world, the said coefficient is 46.2% in the Middle East region and especially in Iran it is equal to 62.1%. This is a confirmation of the high share of the agricultural sector of groundwater consumption in Iran compared to other countries and even the Middle East region (FAO, 2009). About 85% of the surface of Iran has a dry desert, semi-arid and ultra-arid climate (Ghafouri, 2003). Also, the annual rainfall of Iran is 240-260 mm and less than one third of the average annual rainfall of the world (870 mm). The phenomenon of drought during its occurrence period affects the underground water resources, which unfortunately has been less noticed. One of the important effects of drought is related to the drop of underground water, which due to the lack of rain and snow, there is a sharp decrease in the nutrition of the aquifers, and with the excessive exploitation of these aquifers, the condition of severe drop. Water resources are provided at the water level.Materials and methodsThe research area is located in the north of Lake Urmia and the watersheds overlooking the city of Tusuj in the coordinates of 45° 18’ to 45° 33’ east longitude, 38° 20’ to 38° 24’ north latitude. According to different classification methods, the climate of the region is cold, semi-arid, and it is considered a Mediterranean rainfall regime.In this study, one of the important drought indices that is widely used in drought monitoring is the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which was presented by McKay et al.(1993) to determine the probability of drought occurrence. To model the monthly rainfall data, one of the suitable statistical distributions for this task is to use the gamma distribution. The reason for using this distribution is the nature of the statistical distribution itself, in which values close to zero have a frequency with greater probability, and the same nature is also valid for monthly rainfall data (the existence of months without rainfall). In this study, the correlation between the SPI index and the GRI standard groundwater index is investigated and the effect of drought on the GRI index is evaluated with a regression model.Discussion and resultsAccording to the results of the correlation coefficient table, the GRI index has a significant positive correlation with the SPI drought index in the time scale of 48 months for Tasuj station. For Sharafkhane station, the SPI index has a significant negative correlation at a significance level of 0.05 in the time scale of 12 and 24 months. For Khoi station, in all three time scales of 12, 24 and 48 months, there is a significant negative correlation at the significance level of 0.05 and even 0.01. The 48-month drought index of Tasouj, 12-month Sharafkhane and 24-month Khoi, which have the most significant correlation with the GRI index, were entered into the regression model as factors influencing drought to determine the total changes in GRI that were affected by the drought conditions of three stations, to be determined. Therefore, three drought indexes as three independent variables and GRI index as a dependent variable form a linear multivariate regression model.According to the results, the correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination of the model (R Square) are 0.706 and 0.499, respectively, and this indicates that 49.9 percent of the changes in the model are determined or covered by independent variables. A value of 0.000 for Sig. In the analysis of variance (ANOVA) table, it shows the significance and validity of the model. By having regression coefficients, it is possible to reach the relationship between the GRI index and the drought indices of the stations. which is mentioned in relation 1. All coefficients of the model are significant (Sig.=0.000) and indicate the validity of these coefficients. Therefore, the regression relationship of the model can be shown as follows.GRI=0.240+0.923×SPI48(tasouj)-0.235×SPI12(sharaf)-0.559×SPI24(khoy) (1)ConclusionThe results of the study of the effect of drought on the underground waters of the Tusuj aquifer area indicate a significant correlation between the 24-month drought profile of the Tusuj station, 12-month Sharafkhane and 24-month Khui stations with the GRI standard groundwater profile of the Tusuj aquifer area. The downward trend of the GRI groundwater standard index is consistent with the downward trend of the drought of the Tasuj rain gauge station in three time scales of 12, 24 and 48 months. Of course, despite the fluctuations of the SPI drought index, especially the short-term increase and the occurrence of insignificant drought in some years in Sharafkhaneh and Khoi stations, but due to the accumulation of drought and the dominance of drought years over drought years on the long-term climate memory The region has been affected and has caused a decrease in groundwater and a downward trend in the GRI standard index.For a more accurate statistical analysis, a suitable regression model was determined between the GRI index as a dependent variable and three drought index variables of 48 months of Tasouj, 12 months of Sharafkhane and 24 months of Khoi as dependent variables. which is given in relation (1) as the result of the regression equation. By using this relationship, it is possible to calculate the values of the corresponding GRI standard index by having the SPI drought index values.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of two precipitation datasets, CHIRPS and ERA5-Land, in detecting droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over Iran. To achieve this, the raster data of the two datasets were evaluated using the standardized precipitation index in 11 time steps, along with precipitation data from 110 meteorological stations and correlation analysis. The study results revealed that both CHIRPS and ERA5-Land datasets exhibited a high degree of correlation with station data in time steps ranging from 1 to 12 months across Iran, except for the northern region (RCHIRPS = 0.56, RERA5 = 0.76). Furthermore, the ERA5-Land dataset demonstrated an acceptable level of performance in higher time steps (24-72 months) compared to CHIRPS. Additionally, the study revealed that the areas affected by drought were relatively similar between both datasets for time steps up to 12 months, although the reliability of CHIRPS was questionable at higher time steps. Moreover, based on the results, it was found that in general, the accuracy and capability of databases in high time steps, with a statistical period length of 30-40 years, have been significantly reduced, and for longer time steps, a longer statistical period should be used.

Drought is a mysterious phenomenon whose effects, unlike earthquakes and floods, are not sudden and cover wide areas. Understanding this phenomenon can increase the resilience of human societies and reduce its consequences. Otherwise, drought leads to imbalance and anomaly in social and ecological systems. In this research, Fars province (9 selected stations) has been selected to investigate the drought during a statistical period of 28 years (1994-2021), and the SPI and PNPI indices and the NDVI index have been used to verify the validity of these indices and the consequences of drought. The results showed that climatic droughts continued during this period with the difference that the index (SPI) shows the severity of drought better and emphasizes minimum ranges, and the PNPI index displays the maximum ranges while providing a better classification of drought severity. According to the results, the severity of droughts is inclined from the south to the northern parts of the region. The results of the vegetation cover index showed that there are many changes in the density and extent of vegetation cover during the period of about 30 years, which confirms the evaluation of the drought indicators in this research.

A large part of our country has an arid and semi-arid climate due to being located in the desert belt of the world, and because of this it receives little rainfall (one third of the world average rainfall), which also has severe rainfall in different years. Drought is a phenomenon that occurs at least once a year as a result of reduced rainfall in different parts of the world, and if agriculture cannot resist this phenomenon, famine will occur. Numerous indicators are used to monitor drought as indicators of drought around the world. In this study, SPI index has been used to study drought and wetlands in Chahbahar city. To conduct this research and with the aim of analyzing precipitation and determining dry and wet years, monthly precipitation data of Chahbahar Synoptic Meteorological Station in a period of 34 years (2018-1985) have been used. The results of this study show that in 6 months of the year, from December to the end of May, most years of drought have occurred and the drought situation is mild, mild. Also, in 6 months of the year, from June to the end of November, the situation of Chahbahar city is in normal conditions and no drought has occurred in this part of the year. The results also show that the number of wetlands in Chahbahar is less than droughts, but unlike droughts, they occur in all months of the year except May, and January with 10 wet years, 13 drought years and 11 The year of normal conditions is the most volatile month of the year. Also, 1997, 2007 and 2008 were the wettest years during the period under review.

In this study, the relationship between meteorological drought index (SPI index) and remote sensing indices of VCI, TCI and VHI in Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Markazi and Qom provinces has been investigated. In this regard, using the satellite images of Modis Terra sensor and precipitation data of rain gauge and synoptic stations located in the study area, the detection of changes occurred over a period of 10 years was calculated. For this purpose, four months (April, May, June and July) were selected as a sample by reviewing the data of existing stations and using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) model. In this study, due to time accuracy, high spectrum coverage, ease of access, no need for atmospheric correction and ground reference, images with code (MOD11A2 and MOD13A2) of Modis satellite sensor products related to the years 2011 to 2020 due to Confidence of wet and drought phenomena was used and then SPI index was compared with VCI, TCI and VHI indices in combination. The results of drought monitoring showed that during this ten-year period, there was severe drought in some years, and in the same year, less rainfall occurred. In 2020, for example, the drought was very severe, and in 2011 it was very wet. The results of the correlation between SPI index and remote sensing indices showed that SPI index has the highest correlation with VCI index at the level of 0.01. It was found that MODIS images and constructed indices have the necessary capability for drought monitoring. The results of this study can be a good option for decision makers to monitor, investigate and resolve drought conditions and double the need to define an index.

Investigating the effect of drought on water resources of countries plain is high important at optimal management of water resources in the agriculture and natural resources part. The phenomenon of climate change, affects the amount of water existence in aquifer by changing amount of precipitation. The occurrence of consecutive climate droughts affects ground water resources. Knowing and awareness of the effect of time between two phenomenon of drought and hydrological drought, can help managers and planners of the water sector. Over the years, the effect of drought on ground water resources less attention has been paid. In order to understand the state of groundwater resources and optimum management, it is necessary to carry out a thorough study of groundwater fluctuations. In this research, Marand plain is the purpose of this study. Marand Plain is poor in rainfall and has a rainfall of 450 mm / year and at least 150 mm / year which varies in the plains and mountainous regions. In this research, we have tried to investigate the effect of atmospheric drops, including rainfall, on ground water level in the Marand watershed.

The Marand plain with 45 °, 15 to 50 minutes east longitude and 37 ° 7 'to 38 ° 56' north latitude and with an area of 42.517 square kilometer is one of the vast plains in the northwest of East Azarbaijan province. Which is selected as the study area. In this study, in order to study the trend of ground water level changes in the Marand Plain, the static surface data of 23 piezometric wells was used during the 2000 to 2016. First, a common statistical period was chosen to analyze the data series (2000 to 2016). Then in order to reconstruct the statistical defects, the correlation between stations and piezometric wells and linear regression method was used. The IDW method was used to calculate the average rainfall of the plain. Finally, the standard water level index (SWI) and the SPI index for the studied basin were calculated and analyzed. 

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate drought on the fell of groundwater level in the Marand plain using SPI and SWI indices. Meteorological drought conditions in the Marand plain were calculated using the SPI index on a 12-month time scale. The results and drought accuracy of the rain gauge stations in the studied basin showed that during the study period, the first period of drought since 2005 started gradually with decreasing atmospheric precipitation and continued until 2007 and after a period of humidity short-term, again, a short period of drought from 2008 to 2009 has been on the ruling area. The SWI index was used to survey the status of groundwater level. This indicator also showed that in terms of time and place, the drought based on this index corresponded to the drought caused by the SPI index.

Using the SPI index, the drought trend was studied in the region. The results showed that during the study period (2000-2016) three drought periods from winter 2005 to beginning of 2009, summer of 2011 to the end of 2012 and winter of 2015 to summer of 2016 occurred. Drought affected areas included the east and center of the study area and the west of the region witnessed more atmospheric precipitation. The SWI index was used to survey the status of groundwater level. The index showed that in terms of time and place, the drought based on this index corresponded to the drought caused by the SPI index. Data analysis showed that these two indices with a time interval of one season had a correlation of 1%. This means that the hydrological drought after a season has a direct impact on the surface of the water. In general, we can conclude from the results of this study that the trend of ground water surface changes has been consistent with the drought and weathering changes in the region. Therefore, the fall of the ground water level of Marand plain can be largely influenced by weathered droughts.

Drought Hazard is one of the natural features of the planet that can occur in all climatic zones. This study aimed to analyze the time series of agricultural drought in Darab city over 20 years (2000 – 2020) using remote sensing and satellite images in the Google Earth engine system. Satellite imagery includes 460 images of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation (NDVI) MODIS satellites are Terra which are used to calculate the temperature condition index (TCI) and vegetation condition index (VCI) was used. Also, using the recorded rainfall data of the Darab synoptic station, the SPI index was calculated by MATLAB software in different time intervals. The results show that according to the Extreme dryness class and based on the TCI index of the 2000 year with an area of 225.46 square kilometers and also according to the VCI index of the 2013 year with an area of 280.80 square kilometers, They had the most land area in Darab city. As a result, comparing the numerical value of SPI index for each of the years of the period under study with the amount of non-drought areas obtained from TCI and VCI indices obtained from satellite images, The highest correlation coefficient of 0.76 was observed between the 12-month SPI and the VCI index, which indicates the VCI satellite index as the optimal index indicating the drought situation in Darab city. Another outstanding result of the present study is that the use of remote sensing data and Google Earth Engine system to monitor and investigate drought in areas that do not have observational data from land surveys is very useful.

Drought is one of the climatic phenomena that occurs in all climatic conditions and in all regions of the planet. Various indicators are used to quantify this phenomenon and evaluate it. The index used in this study to study drought and wet season is the standardized SPI precipitation index. For this purpose, monthly rainfall data for a statistical period of 29 years (1989- (1961) were studied with the aim of statistical analysis of rainfall and determination of dry and wet years. The results of this study show that the severity of drought in Isfahan province Mild droughts, that is, normal drought conditions, account for a larger share than other droughts, and in general, among all SPI conditional transmission modes, the transition from normal to drought is more likely than other modes .According to the SPI index, Isfahan province has experienced more drought events compared to wet season and its climate has a greater tendency to transition from normal to dry.

Drought is a climatic phenomenon that is likely to occur in any region and leads to social, economic and environmental damage. Due to the importance of remote linking patterns and their impact on climate, therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the relationship between remote linking patterns and drought in northwestern Iran. In this regard, the precipitation statistics of 17 synoptic stations located in the provinces of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil and Zanjan during the statistical period 1988 to 2018 and the statistics of 16 connection patterns from the Northern Hemisphere during the same period were used. First, using the drought index (SPI) of the study area on an annual scale, with a delay of one month and a delay of two months. Then, the relationship between drought and remote grafting patterns was investigated using Pearson correlation and linear regression methods. The results show that on a monthly scale, the PNA pattern showed a correlation with the studied stations more than other patterns in the one-month delay time of the TNA pattern and in the two-month delay time of the NAO pattern. Spatially, Maragheh and Jolfa stations have shown more correlation with remote connection patterns than other stations. Examination of seasonal correlation coefficients also showed that in winter HCNA and SNA patterns; NAM, NPI and PN patterns in spring; In summer, the SNAO pattern and in autumn, the POL / PEP pattern were more correlated with the drought of the studied stations than other patterns.

One of the most important challenges of human being in recent years is water crisis and drought. So evaluating the situation of drought is very important in optimized water resource management. In current research, the data of precipitation for two future periods of 2025-2045 and 2065-2085 produced using results of 5 general circulation models of atmosphere (Csiromk3.6, Gfdlcm2, GISS-E2-R, Ipsl, and MIROC-ESM) and 4 scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Next step was downscaling which carried out using WG-LARS model. The intensity of drought identified using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using different time periods (3, 12 and 48 months) for Zabol and Shiraz zones. Results of SPI index showed that the intensity of drought in 12 and 48 months periods has higher drought intensity in comparison with 3 months. Also results showed that drought in Zabol and Shiraz was higher due to results of ESM-MIROC model and RCP 8.5 Scenario. Comparison of scenarios also shows that in both study areas, the RCP 8.5 scenario in both future periods shows a drought in the average range compared to the baseline period.

Drought is one of the natural disasters occurring over a long period of time compared to other natural phenomena which intermittently impedes human societies through the negative impacts on water and agricultural resources and subsequently the economy. One of the methods of drought monitoring is the use of drought indices such as SPI. In this study, SPI index was used to study drought over the period 2001 to 2016. The SPI index is purely based on precipitation, so it is important to select a proper precipitation source to extract the SPI index at different time scales. Synoptic stations, due to lack of proper distribution and high statistical gaps, cannot be a reliable source of precipitation in this type of research, so global precipitation datasets having high spatial and temporal resolution can be used as a viable alternative to ground stations, in this study the Era-interim precipitation product, which is the product of the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast was used. Initial results indicated that the Era-interim precipitation product could be used as a viable alternative to synoptic stations nationwide. Therefore, this precipitation product was used to assess the drought situation in the country. The study of drought status with respect to SPI indicated that with increasing SPI time scale dry and wet conditions became more severe so that mild dry and wet conditions in most in most month and years turned into severe dry and wet conditions.

Today’s drought and dehydration have become one of the great problems of the country and as a solution; several dams have been established in different regions of Iran to combat that. Typically, hydrological drought is affected by climate change and human activities, which has been studied with respect to climate change and its relation to drought, but the impact of human activities on droughts has been less widely considered. Therefore, in this research has tried to investigate the effect of Karkhe dam construction on occurrence of hydrological droughts. To achieve the research objectives, information was obtained from 14 hydrometric stations and 19 Rain gauge station which had long-term data of 30 years. First, hydrological drought was calculated using SDI and meteorological drought using SPI index. Then, in order to answer the research question, the regression relations, the analysis of the boxplot in SPSS software and descriptive statistics of droughts were analyzed by two statistical periods before and after the construction of the dam. The results showed that, before the dam was constructed, the magnitude and duration of hydrological droughts in the upper regions of the catchment area was higher, but with dam construction, the magnitude and duration of droughts in the bottom of the dam increased. These results indicate the negative impact of the dam on the Karkheh River. Therefore, Karkheh dam can not only reduce the hydrological droughts of the area but also increase them.

In this study, first, by studying the research, criteria and sub-criteria were identified that are effective in terms of environmental sustainability. After the Delphi stages, the criteria of environmental resources and services, environmental health and energy were selected as the most important criteria for assessing environmental sustainability in Babak, then using the neural network model to analyze and evaluate the environmental sustainability of Babak. In this study, drought in Babak city was analyzed with a SPI index of drought during a statistical period of 32 years 1361-1392. This index is specifically for time series six; Twelve and forty-eight months were calculated. The city of Babak has been facing drought during the statistical period of thirty-two years, especially the last seven years, and on an annual scale of six months, most of its droughts are mild to moderate droughts. But in the long-term Myas 48 months, 75% of the droughts were severe and very severe, which shows a high relationship with the quantitative and qualitative decline of groundwater in this area.

In the present study to identify and analyze the drought and rain in the catchment area of river valley in North West Iran, were used The annual rainfall data of 38 stations for Climatology and synoptic during a period of 25 years (1990-1991 to 2014-2015). Initially, the use of SPI gamma index, as well as the Deciles drought index, were identified drought and wet periods in the study area. Stations studied In terms of homogeneity Using Agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) method in three homogeneous classes. In the following Drought results with simple Kriging method, with a Semi-Variogram Spherical model with the lowest RMS erro, Zoned in ArcGIS software. Using appropriate variogram, cells with dimensions of 1 * 1 km were extended to perform spatial analysis on the study area. In order to explain the pattern of drought in the region From Global and local statistics of Moran were used as spatial data exploration approaches. The results of the application of Moran's index about identifying spatial distribution of drought patterns showed that The values of the different years during the period, have a positive a positive coefficient close to 1 (Moran's I> 0.95) and this shows that The spatial distribution of drought is clustered. Also the results of the standard score Z values and the P-Value proved the clustering of spatial distribution of drought. Eventually from General Statistics G Was used to identify spatial patterns of the drought. The results showed that the east and north-east of the region have a very severe drought pattern whose significance level is 0.99

Climate change, the quantitative and qualitative decline of water resources and the increasing trend of the world's population have made water management difficult. The purpose of this study was to assess the situation and management of meteorological and agricultural droughts from the point of view of experts and household supervisors in rural areas of Eslamabad Gharb.

This descriptive-analytical study was conducted in 2017 in 7 households of Eslamabad Gharb. A total of 374 households (in 21 villages) were selected through multi-stage stratified random sampling. Data were collected through library and field research (questionnaire and interview). To analyze the quantitative data, standardized precipitation indices, standardized transpiration and one-sample T-test, and in the qualitative part, Delphi method was used..

According to the results of the Standardized Precipitation Index, from 1986 to 2016, 14 years of drought occurred at the county level (8 years normal, 4 years moderate and 2 years severe). According to the results of the long-term standardized transpiration index, 2.1% of the city population was affected by moderate drought in 2008-2009, and 64.6% by mild drought.

Rural participation in drought management planning is the most important and effective factor affecting drought management.

 The purpose of this study was to analyze the status of effective factors on drought management in rural areas, which was done in rural areas of Eslamabad Gharb. The statistical population of the study consists of all households of over 20 households (due to agricultural land and topographical conditions) in seven rural districts. Using the Cochran formula, 374 of them, located in 21 villages, in each village, 3 villages, have been studied as an example due to the environmental structure. To analyze the data, the confirmatory factor analysis method was used in the Spss 22 and Smart-Pls software environment, and the Spi index was used for assessing the situation in the region for drought severity. Economic dimension has an impact on drought management, with a value of 17,642 T, and the path coefficient between these two is 0.251. The social dimension, with a value of T 23.999, and a path coefficient of 0.351, an environmental dimension, with a value of 23.449, and a path coefficient of 0.168, an institutional dimension-substructure, with a value of 32.421 T and a path coefficient of 0.381, Direct management of drought. Accordingly, the institutional-infrastructural dimension, the most impact, and economic dimension, has the least effect. In general, in order to manage drought in rural areas in Eslamabad Gharb, in planning, priority should be given to effective factors in drought management, especially social factors. Accordingly, it should first be facilitated by the capacity of the region, with regard to the existing rural population, in the context of universal participation, as well as the prevention of migration, by resorting to professionals and instructors.In recent years, due to the successive droughts, many villages have suffered a slight blue crisis, and have certainly caused adverse effects on their social, economic and environmental conditions, and the fundamental problem has occurred when Paying attention to this drought, the authorities and authorities, have not discussed the effects of this drought on the dimensions of the lives of villagers, and have gone through the issue with formalities, and have taken action against this dysfunctional and cross-sectional measures. Undoubtedly, the first step, in order to adequately deal with the drought and its consequences, is to understand and understand the phenomenon and its effects in different dimensions in order to be able to draw up effective strategies and strategies in this regard. And he worked. On this basis, it is necessary first of all, based on a scientific and logical research, to investigate the effects of this bite on different dimensions of life, and then on the basis of it, to plan, the present study is in this regard. So, the present research seeks to answer the following question: How much is the economic, social, environmental and institutional-physical effects on drought management in the rural areas studied? The life of the rural community, among the three existing human societies in Iran, due to drought-induced crises, has had many destructive effects in rural life, and faces them with many challenges, and has had a major impact on the economy and its livelihoods, so that Past strategies for managing droughts in rural areas have not been so successful and have not been able to resolve issues such as water scarcity, and easing rangelands and migration. Kermanshah province is the sixth province of the country due to drought problems. As a result of recent droughts, about 550 villages in the province suffered from a mild crisis, and the damages caused to the province due to drought and frost in 2008 exceeded 800 billion USD It was announced.

The statistical population of the study consists of all households of more than 20 households in seven rural districts. Using the Cochran formula, 374 of them (located in 21 villages), for example, have been studied. To analyze the data, confirmatory factor analysis method was used in SPSS 22 and Smart-Pls software.

The economical dimension of drought management, with a 17,642 coefficient, indicates the significance of economic dimension to drought management, and the path coefficient between these two is 0.251. Also, the social dimension, with the value of 23.999, the path coefficient 0.351, the environmental dimension, with the value of 23.449, the path coefficient 0.168, and the institutional-institutional subfield, with the value of 32.421, the path coefficient of 0.381, directly explained the drought management they do. 

In general, in the management of drought, in rural areas of Islamabad, West, planning should prioritize factors affecting drought management, especially social factors. Accordingly, first, government measures should be taken to create the technical, institutional and service infrastructure in the region, and then, based on the capacity of the region, with regard to the prestigious rural population, in the direction of universal participation, as well as the prevention of migration, basic measures, the face Take up. Key Words: Drought Management, Rural Areas, Islamabad, West, Modeling of Structural Equations.

Drought is one of the most prevalent and dangerous disturbances around the world, which cause significant economic and agricultural losses. Kerman province located in the center of Iran is in the first places of drought. The purpose of this research was to investigate the meteorological and hydrological drought condition of the study area. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was also investigated. For this propose, 11 hydrometric stations and 10 precipitation hydrometric stations were extracted. The hydrological and drought indicators were measured using SPI and SRI were calculated at different time scales. Then, the relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought, as well as the relationship between meteorological drought with hydrological drought occurring with different time delays, were analyzed using Pearson correlation. The comparison between SPI and SRI indexes showed that in all meteorological stations, drought periods have increased since 2000. The highest correlation between these two types of droughts in the region was related to 48 month periods. The results showed that hydrological drought severity is more than meteorological drought in the region. At the beginning of the study period, meteorological droughts have not an important different with hydrological droughts; however, since the year 2004, the severity of hydrological drought has increased continuously in the region. The correlation between SPI and SRI index at different stations was not the same. The results of the Pearson correlation between SPI and SRI index with delay of 1, 2, 3 and 4 months showed that the highest correlation between SPI and SRI were occurred for the same period. These results also indicate that meteorological droughts immediately affect the river flow and consequently, the hydrological drought was happened