دریاچه ارومیه

The purpose of this study is to identify the effective factors, prepare flood risk prediction maps using machine learning models, and finally evaluate the efficiency of these models in the Zive watershed of Urmia. For this purpose, environmental and human factors including morphometric indices; Waterway Power Index (SPI), Slope Length Index (LS), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Topographic Position Index (TPI), Land Roughness Index (TRI), Mass Balance Index (MBI), Profile Curvature Index and The surface curvature index (Plan Curvature), rainfall, basin height, slope degree, slope direction, lithology, land use, normalized difference index of vegetation cover (NDVI), distance from waterway, distance from village and distance from fault were used. For this purpose, 96 flood spots were identified in the basin by using field visits and Google Earth images and sources received from the offices. Layers related to morphometric indices from the digital height model (12.5 x 12.5) meters and in the SAGA_GIS environment; And maps of environmental and human factors were prepared and digitized in the ArcGIS geographic information system. The evaluation results of two models using the ROC curve for machine learning (ML) models showed that the maximum entropy model with AUC=0.916 and the generalized linear model with AUC=0.902 have excellent performance in the field The results of the Kappa index for the superior model showed that environmental factors including geology, distance from waterways, height and slope have the greatest impact and the least impact related to profile curvature index factors. , land use, and mass balance index. Identifying high-risk areas and determining factors affecting the occurrence of floods in this basin can be very efficient in reducing possible damages.

Using wind and converting it into a source of energy has been practiced in many countries since ancient times. On the other hand, weather is the cause of many natural disasters and accidents, and no part of the planet is immune to atmospheric hazards. Strong and intense winds, known as storms, cause significant damage to human living environments every year. Approximately 90% of the world's natural disasters are related to climatic factors. After floods, which account for approximately 35% of these disasters, storms are responsible for about 30% of the damage caused by natural disasters. The level of risk and damage caused by strong winds and storms depends on their direction, intensity, and the geographical location of the region. Considering the importance of wind in terms of its risks and potential, the study of this phenomenon has drawn the attention of researchers worldwide. Due to its arid and semi-arid climate, Iran experiences the negative effects and consequences of wind more than its benefits. East Azarbaijan Province, located east of Lake Urmia, is one of the windy regions of the country. Due to its proximity to the salt bed formed by the drying up of Lake Urmia, the province faces significant environmental and health hazards. By studying the speed and direction of strong winds in this region, management plans can be developed, vulnerability thresholds for structures determined, and resistant designs implemented to reduce resulting damages. The purpose of this research is to investigate the speed and direction of maximum wind and its changes while identifying vulnerable and windy areas east of Lake Urmia.

This research investigated the speed, changes, and direction of maximum wind at 16 synoptic stations located east of Lake Urmia during the period of 1394–1401. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator were used to determine the trend of wind speed changes. Wind Rose diagrams were used to analyze the prevailing wind direction. All calculations related to data preparation and tests for checking the trend of maximum wind speed were performed using XLSTAT software, and WRPLOT software was used to generate wind diagrams.

According to the results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, among the 16 stations investigated in the east of Lake Urmia, significant increasing trends in maximum wind speed changes were observed only at Shabestar and Sahand stations, with Sen's slopes of +0.089 and +0.070, respectively. A significant decreasing trend was observed at Tabriz, Malekan, and Maragheh stations, with Sen's slopes of -0.058, -0.037, and -0.092, respectively. No trend in maximum wind speed changes was observed at Kalibar, Mianeh, Jolfa, Bostanabad, Bonab, and Sarab stations. Based on the Wind Rose diagrams, the prevailing wind direction at most stations is from the west and southwest, which could potentially increase respiratory diseases in the future due to salt storms originating from the dry bed of Lake Urmia affecting the eastern provinces. This pattern is likely related to the pressure gradient influenced by topography, the presence of Sahand mountain heights in the region, surface friction based on geographical characteristics, land use, and urban structures.At specific stations, the prevailing wind direction was observed as follows: Bonab and Sarab from the west; Ahar, Charoimaq, Mianeh, Tabriz, and Varzeqan from the southwest; Bostanabad, Heris, Malekan, Marand, and Shabestar from the south; Jolfa and Kalibar from the northwest; Maragheh from the east; and Sahand from the west and southwest. The frequency of strong winds was high across all stations, with more than 50% of maximum winds exceeding 11.11 m/s.

The results of this research revealed that the maximum wind speed in the east of Lake Urmia was recorded at Varzeqan and Marand stations, while the lowest values were recorded at Kalibar and Jolfa stations. According to the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator, changes in maximum wind speed at most synoptic stations showed either no trend or a decreasing trend, with significant increasing trends observed only at Shabestar and Sahand stations. Significant decreasing trends were observed at Tabriz, Malekan, and Maragheh stations. The prevailing wind direction at most stations was found to be from the west and southwest. These findings should be considered in structural design, including the orientation of buildings, power plants, and wind turbines. Additionally, they are critical for agricultural planning, such as rain irrigation system design.The high frequency of strong winds across all synoptic stations underscores the vulnerability of this area to strong winds and storms, highlighting the importance of structural resilience. However, from an energy perspective, the region holds significant potential for wind power generation. Given the necessity of reducing dependence on fossil fuels due to their negative environmental impacts, including climate change, decreased precipitation, rising temperatures, and reduced water resources, utilizing wind power as a clean energy source becomes essential.One limitation of this research was its focus on the eastern part of Lake Urmia. A broader study encompassing the entire Lake Urmia basin in all directions would provide a more comprehensive understanding of wind speed and direction changes under conditions of Lake Urmia's drying and the expansion of the salt bed. This would enable more precise land-use planning and management strategies for the coming years.

In addition to natural disasters such as floods, which cause great damage to the environment and human societies, the phenomenon of dust also causes irreparable damage to urban environments, transportation systems, respiratory systems, etc. Identifying Potential Dust Source Areas is considered the first step to control and prevent this phenomenon. Various researches have been conducted to identify dust sources, but most studies have relied on small-scale images. This research aims to use medium-scale satellite images to identify local areas prone to dust production. Google Earth Engine was used to analyze factors influencing dust generation, including slope, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, soil salinity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), soil moisture, wind speed, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST). Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign weights to these elements. The resulting weights were: soil moisture (0.264), NDVI (0.208), wind speed (0.153), precipitation (0.107), land use/soil salinity (0.081), LST (0.064), DEM (0.024), and slope (0.020). The inconsistency index (0.015) indicated a high degree of consistency between the assigned weights, which is below the acceptable threshold (1). Due to the lack of ground-based air quality measurements, the Aerosol Optical Depth product (a satellite-derived measurement of airborne particles) was used to validate the resulting dust source maps. The final map showed that the potential for dust generation decreased closer to the heights of Sahand and increased closer to the lake.

Clouds are one of the most important climate factors affecting water systems on Earth's because, on the one hand, they transfer variable amounts of ocean moisture to land, and on the other side, they play a decisive role in the distribution of rainfall on the earth's level. Also, due to their influence on the amount of solar radiation and the extraction of energy from the Earth’s surface, they are the controllers of the energy outflows on the Earth's surface. Thus, any change in time and space in the clouds can affect other climate factors and complicate the effects of climate change. The basin of Urmia Lake is one of the most important and largest ecosystems in the northwest of Iran, whose change has notable impacts on the local climate and economic, social, and hydrological conditions. The basin of Urmia Lake has been hit by a severe low-water crisis in recent years, which has led to a significant drop in the lake’s water level and a worrying drop in its level. The basin is considered to be one of the crucial poles for the slaughter of debris and various agricultural products, so cloud coverage and its association with other climate parameters such as temperature and rain can have a constructive impact on the lives and economies of its inhabitants. Then, in the current study, the supernatic process of the sky was carried out using the reductive analysis of the observation data of weather stations for the first time in Iran and the world to reveal supernatic changes in the sky in the basin of Urmia Lake.

To reveal supernovaic changes in the basin of Urmia Lake, data on the total daily coverage of the sky for the statistical period of 71 years (1951–2021) for five selected stations were taken from the Meteorological Organization Statistics Center. Satellite data from Moody’s Three for 22 years (2001–2022) and Moody's Aqua for the 20-year period (2003–2022) were also extracted on a monthly scale from NASA’s site for overall supernova coverage of the sky. For the purpose of analyzing the cloud spread in the study area, the analysis of data obtained using the Ridit analysis method was made, and the meaningful Mann-Kendall test was used. The cloudiness of the sky was classified into five classes (0 to 8 octaves). For the cloudiness of the sky, the data of the hours of the day 09, 12, 15, and 06 were analyzed. Due to the nature of satellite data and observations, two different methods were used to analyze the trend. Because the cloudiness data is ranked and the cloudiness of the sky is classified into nine classes (0 to 8 octaves), the only statistical method that can correctly obtain the cloudiness trend is the Ridit analysis method, but to check the cloudiness trend Because the satellite data are distant, the Mann-Kendall method was used. Ridit analysis is a statistical method of analysis that was first introduced by Bross in 1958 in the statistical literature. It is a method for comparing the distribution of ordinal (rank) scale variables and is similar to non-parametric statistical techniques that require the calculation of changes for successive classes. This method compares year-to-year changes relative to a reference distribution. If it increases over time compared to the values, there is a probability of an increasing trend compared to the reference distribution, but if it decreases compared to the values, there is a probability of a decreasing trend compared to the reference distribution. Ridit analysis is used to express volatility relative to the reference distribution. Annual outputs of Ridit analysis were used to analyze the trend. If the output of Ridit analysis is drawn as a graph, the trend can be shown, and the existence of the trend can be determined with the trend test. For this purpose, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to test the significance of the trend.

In this research, the aim is to reveal changes in the overall cloudiness of the sky based on observational and satellite data in the basin of Urmia Lake. The findings of the research showed that the results of the analysis of Reddit and Mann Kendall on an annual and seasonal basis indicate a negative trend and a decrease in the overall cloudiness of the sky in this basin. So all five stations annually and in the winter season have a decreasing and decreasing trend of cloudiness, and in the autumn season, the stations of Urmia, Saqez, and Khoy have an increasing trend, and Tabriz and Maragheh have a decreasing trend. In the spring and summer seasons, three out of five stations show a decreasing trend, which indicates a decrease in the amount of cloud cover in these seasons, which can be the reason for the increase in temperature and the decrease in relative humidity in the spring and summer. The results of both Aqua and Tera satellites are the same annually and seasonally, so the cloudiness of the sky in Urmia station has a positive trend and insignificant increase, but in Tabriz, Khoy, Saqez, and Maragheh stations, it has a negative trend and insignificant decrease. The results obtained from the analysis of Ridit and the data of two satellites, Aqua and Tera, on an annual and seasonal basis also show the greatest agreement between the results obtained from the analysis of Ridit and the data of Aqua and Tera satellites on an annual basis, but also seasonally, respectively. They are most appropriate in summer, autumn, and winter. But in the spring, except for Urmia and Khoy stations, the rest of the stations do not have compliance. According to the obtained results, the compatibility of the results of the Ridit analysis with the satellite data was confirmed, and the correctness of the results obtained from the Ridit analysis was proved.

Generally, the results are obtained from observational and satellite data, indicating a reduction in all cloud days and overall supernova coverage of the sky at the stations studied. So the largest percentage of total supernovaic coverage of the sky must belong to cloudless, nebulous, and semi-nebulous levels that may be caused by a decrease in moisture entry into the area studied. Also, since the rainfall in the northwest of Iran, in which the basin of Urmia Lake is affected by periods due to decreased temperature, increased relative humidity, and the introduction of cooling systems, occurs more in the autumn and winter periods, the reduction of all cloud days and overall supernatural coverage of the sky in all segments, especially in the fall and winter, can create drier climate conditions and have a noticeable impact on the local climate and economic-social and hydrological conditions of the basin of Urmia Lake.

Today, following the drying up of Lake Urmia, new centers for wind erosion activity have been formed in the northwest of the country, and these centers have become the source of dangerous dust production. In the southeastern part of Lake Urmia, the formation of wind erosion centers can lead to irreparable damages from the point of view of nature and human health. In this study, in order to identify wind erosion centers, changes in the water level of Lake Urmia based on the fluctuation pattern of climatic parameters using data The long-term effects of the existing stations in the Urmia Lake watershed were investigated. In order to identify the origin areas of fine walnut production and track dust storms in the studied area, horizontal visibility data below 1000 meters of meteorological data and Lagrangian HYSPLIT model in retrograde mode were used at different stations and at different levels of the atmosphere. It was used regularly and also the highest amount of dust containing 26 pressure tsars (100-1000 hectopascals) and available with a time step of 12 hours. At the same time as the first dust entered the study area, the wind direction was investigated for 24 hours before that. In the studied area (Banab and Malekan cities), the focus of wind erosion was investigated using AOD data from MACC database with a spatial accuracy of 0.125 × 0.125 geographic degrees and a daily time scale. In this study, MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites with a wavelength of 550 nm were used to generate AOD data. Day-by-day review of MODIS satellite images and the implementation of the fine dust characterization index revealed the occurrence of specific dust storms over Urmia Lake and southeast of the lake on different days. Investigations showed that extensive salt dust spreads in all parts of Lake Urmia, including the southeast of the lake in the limits of Bonab city, and the dust in this part is spread in the bed of atmospheric currents to the east and southeast for a distance of more than 140 km. In the northeast direction, they spread over 150 km in 12 hours.

The water level reduction in Lake Urmia and its effects on the surrounding environment has been among the important national and international challenges in the past two decades. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the current status and predict the future state of land use in the Gadarchai watershed, located in West Azerbaijan Province, which is one of the important sub-watersheds of the Lake Urmia basin. For this purpose, Sentinel-2 satellite images for 2016, 2020, and 2022 were obtained from the European Union's Copernicus website. Then, preprocessing methods were applied in various software environments, and the relevant images were sent to the eCognition software environment. In this environment, using various basic and object-oriented methods (especially segmentation and production of different coefficient layers), the nearest neighbor classification method was implemented, and land use maps were produced. Finally, the Markov chain model was used to predict changes in land use in future years. To verify the accuracy of the Markov chain model, the predicted land use change map for 2022 was compared with the 2022 classification map. The research results showed that with the application of basic methods, especially nearest neighbor classification, it is possible to produce land use maps with high accuracy (90% kappa coefficient). Also, by applying the Markov model, land use change maps with an acceptable accuracy level (around 80%) are possible. The final results indicate that by the year 2028, agricultural land use (13.89%), dry farming (14.1%), residential areas (0.33%), and salt pans of Lake Urmia (26%) will increase. It should be noted that the soil use class will decrease by 10.26%, and pastures will decrease by 5.35%. Overall, the final models demonstrate the high accuracy of basic and object-oriented methods and the suitable performance of the Markov model in the process of studying land use changes.

The Aral Sea was one of the four largest lakes in the world. In the past six decades, the drying of the Aral Sea has caused environmental changes and increased water salinity. Considering that Lake Urmia has been exposed to widespread drought in recent years, the main objective of this article is to study the environmental hazards created around the Aral Sea after its drying. In addition, the aim is to better understand the tensions that affect Iran and other neighboring countries with the drying up of Lake Urmia. In this study, researchers conducted on the changes in climatic and social conditions of the population of the Aral Sea basin were identified using databases such as PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar between 2000 and 2022, and several articles were reviewed. According to studies, the Aral Sea was 11 times larger than Lake Urmia in the mid-20th century. Due to excessive agricultural development, it began to dry up. The government's solution was to revive it on a smaller scale, of which two parts have been revived. Most studies have reported a significant relationship between the drying up of the Aral Sea and various diseases, including respiratory diseases, types of cancer, fertility dangers, and mental and neurological disorders. Considering the environmental problems and the spread of various diseases among the inhabitants of the dried-up Aral Sea, the revival of Lake Urmia is more necessary than before. Moreover, Kazakhstan's successful experience in Aral restoration can be a model for the revival of Lake Urmia.

The sudden decrease in water levels in Urmia Lake has elevated the environmental risk to both nearby and distant communities. For the people living in this region, particularly the villagers, the crisis has brought about a number of negative effects, including economic, social, environmental, and production-related. The current study was carried out with the purpose of evaluating the economic and productive effects of this problem from the viewpoint of the rural residents in the eastern part of the lake. The eastern of the lake's including 87,049 rural households that made up the statistical population of this study from which 230 households were chosen and analyzed using a stratified sampling method. The formula proposed by Cochran was used to determine the sample size. A questionnaire and face-to-face interviews were the data collection tool and method. By employing the opinions of experts and determining Cronbach's alpha coefficient the validity and reliability of the research instrument were assessed. The data analysis was done using SPSS statistical software. According to the findings, among the most significant effects that the villagers agreed upon were the decrease in the area used to cultivate agricultural products, the reduction of water resources and the rise in costs associated with the supply of agricultural water, and the decline in the quality of surface and ground water. According to the results of the exploratory factor analysis, the various economic-production effects of the water reduction of this lake can be summarized under four groups including "quantitative and qualitative reduction of agricultural production and income", "decrease in the quantity and quality of water resources", "increase in costs and threat to job security and income", and "reduction of non-agricultural activities". Around 69% of the variance in the results' overall variance was explained by these four variables. Among the recommendations made by this study to lessen the effects of water depletion in this lake are encouraging the production and introduction of agricultural and horticultural crops suitable for the eastern area of Urmia Lake, developing new irrigation systems, and altering the pattern of irrigated agricultural crops.

Lake Urmia is one of the most important environmental challenges in Iran, as the most important salt lake in the middle east. So, we see environmental challenges and economic, political-security and social challenges in the northwest of Iran. One  of the ways to restore Lake Urmia to prevent drying and reach the ecological level of the lake is water transfer project from little zab basin to Lake Urmia. The project is implemented in an area where ethnic - religious pluralism is present, considering that this transfer could have different social, economic and political consequences.

Methodology  :

The outcome of this project is studied using qualitative research method of content analysis by interviews of elites, researchers and managers and using open coding technique.

The results indicate that the negative consequences are the disintegration of activity, spatial mobility of the population, the form of ethnic tensions, the formation of fragility in water transport and economic and cultural discourse.

The objectives and uses of water transfer should be clear and not applicable to agricultural development and drinking purposes, because the development of agriculture and drinking uses in the destination can cause unbalanced development in dependence on water in destination and create conflicts and protests at the origin.

Urmia Lake is one of the largest saltwater lakes in the world, which unfortunately is drying up and has caused many dangers and concerns, especially in relation to salt dust in its dried areas. Therefore, in this research, we tried to investigate the relationship between vegetation and dust in the cities around Lake Urmia. Salinity in plants causes physiological disorders, salt stress causes growth, photosynthesis, protein, respiration, energy production, premature senescence, water reduction in plants. Considering these effects, it was tried to evaluate the overall health of plants by using related indicators including NDVI, CIre, GCI, CRI2, NDWI, NDII, MSI, PSRI. These indicators evaluate the amount of plant water, plant water stress, photosynthesis capacity, plant growth and water deficit, the amount of chlorophyll, nitrogen and pigments, which are related to plant energy and health. According to these indicators, the health of plants is generally in a favorable condition, and mostly the highest numerical values of the indicators were assigned to gardens. Using Landsat and Sentinel 2 images and the NDVI index, the vegetation changes of the region were determined in the period from 2010 to 2020, and then using the MERRA-2 database, the amount of dust concentration was also extracted for the mentioned years. The results showed that the average NDVI in the studied area follows a constant trend with an overall average of 0.2957 and sometimes it increases or decreases due to the influence of external factors such as dust. Based on this, the highest (0.3495) average NDVI is related to 2018 and the lowest (0.2579) is related to 2013. Also, two methods of linear and logarithmic regression were used to investigate the relationship between vegetation cover and dust, and the results showed that based on the linear (0.7703) and logarithmic (0.7915) regression, the highest coefficient of explanation between the two mentioned indicators was in May. have been.

In this research, the aim of this research is to the environmental, political and security consequences of the drying up of Lake Urmia using remote sensing on the barracks of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army in Lake Urmia. In terms of the purpose, the present research is in the category of applied research, and in terms of the nature and method of the research, it is a descriptive survey type of research. The statistical population of the current research is the army barracks of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the area of Lake Urmia. To monitor salt particles in Urmia Lake, Sentinel 5, Madis and Landsat 8 satellite images for 2000 to 2022 from the Google Earth Engine system were used. In this research, the spatial descriptions and analyses available in the geographic information system (GEE system and Gis Arc software) have been used. According to the results of Moran's spatial autocorrelation analysis of salt dust dispersion and their impact on army barracks in Lake Urmia basin during 2010, Moran's coefficient showed 0.816328%. This percentage has reached its highest level by 2022. The highest concentration of hot spots (dispersion of salt particles) can be seen in only one high cluster in the northeastern parts of the Urmia lake basin, which includes Tabriz's 2nd Shekhari Barracks and Tabriz's 121st Brigade. In addition, the results of the research show that the security consequences of the mini-guns in the two barracks of Mahabad and Saqzaz Nazar show the defence and security aspect in 2015, which include an increase in the amount of unauthorized traffic, the creation of security loopholes, disruption in the movement of patrolling personnel, a decrease Field of vision, especially in times of wind and visibility, disturbance in standby and support, and disturbance in telecommunication networks are the most important security consequences of crisis defence. In 2022, the spatial dispersion of salt dust was not specific to one barrack, and most of the army barracks in the region were affected by the harmful dust of the lake, in this year, the highest amount of salt dust was found in the barracks of Urmia, Shekhari, Tabriz, Ghoshchi, Saqez and Mahabad is scattered. The security consequences of micro-rounds in the whole region in terms of defence, security and political dimensions, including ethnic-religious differences between the Turks and Kurds, increasing public discontent, decreasing the social solidarity of citizens with the government, increasing street protests and urban riots in the region, ethnic incitement. and more dissatisfaction, security crimes have increased.

Soil erosion is considered as an important factor in reducing soil quality and degradation. One of the important and influential parameters in soil erosion is the types of land use. Each of the land uses directly and indirectly affects the erodibility of the soil and as a result the quality of the soil. Heshtian Catchment area needs monitoring of soil quality and erodibility due to natural conditions, human interventions and diversity of land use. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of land use on erodibility and soil quality in Hashtian Catchment. In this research, 21, 18 and 14 samples of agriculture, pasture, and garden land use were taken from the basin by systematic-random method, respectively. By performing statistical analyses, the physical and chemical characteristics of the samples, including sodium, potassium, total phosphorus, organic carbon, electrical conductivity, pH, calcium, saturated percentage, bulk density, particle density, and soil texture were determined. Using variance analysis, the relationship between the measured parameters and land uses was determined. The results showed that most physical and chemical parameters of soil with P value less than 0.05 have a significant relationship with land use. Also, the results showed that soil quality index with P value (0.17) has no significant relationship with land use, and soil erodibility with P value less than 0.001 has a significant relationship with land use. Also, using Post-hoc test and Tukey's method, it was determined that agricultural use with better quality soil due to aeration and remaining straw and stubble during plowing and vegetation is suitable, and pasture use is suitable due to excessive livestock grazing and the reduction of soil nutrients has a high erodibility compared to agricultural and garden use.

Lake Urmia has been one of the richest national parks and the most attractive natural habitat for animals, which is currently facing a water shortage and drying crisis that has had many consequences in various dimensions in the surrounding area. It can be said that the socio-economic consequences of the drying is one of the most important aspects affecting the people and settlements of the region. Indeed, with the drying up of Lake Urmia and its subsequent decline in income, investment, and employment, there are other social problems, such as the migration of people from the region and the depletion of settlements in the region, particularly rural areas that are heavily dependent on the natural environment for socio-economic aspects. And given the importance of rural areas and the importance of these areas and the pursuit of sustainable socio-economic rural development caused by natural crises, it is very important. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the effects of Lake Urmia drying on socio-economic development with a case study of North Anzal Village. In this study, the statistical population was all residents of North Anzal, 328 of whom were selected as the sample population by Cochran formula and selected by random sampling method. The tools used in this study include a researcher-made questionnaire and statistics available in the field that validity and reliability of the presented questionnaire can be confirmed. Then, based on documentary statistics and statistical analysis using Pearson, regression and Friedman methods, the effect of drying Lake Urmia on socioeconomic development is investigated. The results of this study confirm the research hypotheses and have a significant impact on the drying up of Lake Urmia on socio-economic development. Consequently, to reduce the crisis caused by this phenomenon, we must control and reduce the human and natural factors affecting the drying up of Lake Urmia, and to understand the consequences of this crisis, we must be able to identify strategies to mitigate these consequences in the areas affected. To make an impact.

Drying up of Urmia Lake has great influence on the surrounding environment. The salinity of the soil on the edge of the lake, the increase of salt particles and the reduction of the usual agriculture in this area are among the effects of this drought. With proper planning and extensive studies, it is possible to turn the created deficiencies into opportunities and take maximum advantage of them. One of the parameters that can be checked using satellite data is soil salinity. Soil salinity is the accumulation of dissolved salts in the form of electrical conductivity, and it can be measured.  In this study, the changes in land use and vegetation from 2000 to 2016 have been investigated using Landsat 5 and 8 images. The analysis of the images has been done using object-oriented methods, and the soil salinity has been calculated using salinity indices and during the studied years. Soil salinity index as well as other indices such as plant indices has been used in the classification and examination of changes. Land use changes were obtained by object-oriented method in Ecognation software and calculations related to the amount of changes is done using Arc map and Idrisi software. The study was carried out on 4 periods of 2000, 2006, 2010 and 2016. The images related to each year are first classified into 9 classes of water, salt marsh, new salt, pastures and weak pastures, city, agriculture, barren land and garden by object-oriented method. After classification, the amount of changes during these years has been obtained.

Most of the study area is located in pass 168 and row 34, and only parts of the lake in the northwestern part of the study area are outside this image, so to get the desired result, we have to mosaic the images of passes 168 and 169 with rows 33 and 34. Processing is divided into three stages: pre-processing, processing and post-processing.Segmentation is the first step in processing images in object-oriented methods. Segmentation is the integration of objects from small to large based on the parameters of color, shape, density, smoothness and scale. In this study for processing have used from ecognation Software. The method used to classify images is the thresholding method. In order to improve the classification method, salinity indices and vegetation indices have used in this study.

The amount of water in the lake has decreased drastically between 2000 and 2016, and it has decreased from 54.39% range to 29.26%. By examining the changes, it can be seen that other land uses have been reduced, and salt marshes have been added.  The comparison of land uses from 2000 to 2016 shows that the amount of salt marshes has increased from 12.37% in 2000 to 13.84% in 2006, 24.7% in 2010 and 33.25% in 2016. Studies show that the intensity of changes in the amount of water and salinity between the years 2006 to 2010 and 2010 to 2016 is much more intense than the period 2000 to 2006. It seems that before 2006, unprincipled exploitation of lake water and underground water was less than after 2006, or the environment had the ability to recover the amount of water harvested. As it can be seen from the map of 2000, the amount of new or wet salt around the lake is very small, which has increased with the decrease of the lake's water. The survey of gardens in the studied area shows that the area occupied by gardens has increased from 2000 to 2010, but the results of changes in use from 2010 to 2016 show that the area of gardens has almost halved (1099 pixels from the image in 2010 And 667 pixels in 2016) that one of the factors of this reduction can be soil salinity.Another thing that can be seen by studying the maps is the distribution of new salt in the areas far away from the lake, which at first was only attached to the water at the edge, but over time, when the amount of this type of salt increased, due to the occurrence of salt storms, it was spread to further areas. If measures are not taken to control this amount of salt and soil salinity that has occurred after that and will increase over time, we will witness more severe problems in the region.

Problem statement:

In recent years, Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran, has faced severe water shortages, which has raised concerns in terms of economic, social and environmental consequences in the surrounding communities, especially in rural areas. Livelihood dependence of rural community stakeholders, to the natural resources and agricultural products have caused the harmful effects of drying Urmia Lake to be more visible. The drying up of Lake Urmia is not limited to this lake, but human communities have also suffered a lot from their sphere of influence. Due to the human effects of the drying of Lake Urmia,  it is necessary to analyze the effects of this phenomenon from a human perspective in research. Identifying the adaptive capacity of rural community stakeholders makes it possible to adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by lake drying. Therefore, despite the importance of the subject of this research, it seeks to study the factors and forces affecting the adaptation capacity of rural settlements in the face of the drying crisis of Lake Urmia in the city of Miandoab and so on.

In terms of methodology, strategy and design, the present study is a combination of (mixed), sequential and explanatory exploratory, respectively. In this study, for a detailed study of community mentalities, a discourse on effective factors to increase the adaptive capacity of rural settlements in the face of drying or water retreat of Lake Urmia, the combined method of (Q) was selected. The research discourse community included local managers (governorate experts, heads and employees of government departments, districts, rural districts and Islamic councils) as well as local experts in the sample villages of Miandoab city. Targeted sampling method (snowball) was used to select the statistical sample. Q statements were also compiled using first-hand sources (expert opinions, local managers, field observations, etc.) and codified sources (books, articles, publications, etc.) using the library and field methods. The Q questionnaire was also used to assess the attitude of experts. In order to analyze the data of the Q (Q) method matrices, heuristic factor analysis based on the individual method (Stanfson method) was used.

 In reviewing the findings of the exploratory factor analysis model with KMO criterion, Bartlett test confirmed the sufficient number of samples and its appropriateness for the research. To investigate the most important influencing factors, the specific value and percentage of variance were calculated and the number of factors was determined by pebble diagram and Kaiser Guttman criterion. The results showed that the most important factors and forces affecting the increase of adaptation capacity to the drying of Lake Urmia in the sample villages of Miandoab are: 1) Increasing economic capital and the use of natural resources, 2) Increasing social capital and investment, 3) Developing infrastructure facilities and improving the skills of villagers, 4) Economic diversification and improving rural management .. Among these factors, the first factor with a specific value of 5.40 and a percentage of variance of 24.55 was recognized as the most important factor and effective force in increasing the adaptation capacity of the studied villages against the drying of Lake Urmia. Thus, economic and natural factors, as the most important assets of the villagers, are endangered at any time by the drying up and retreat of the water of Lake Urmia and have a direct impact on the livelihood of the villagers.

Urmia Lake is the most extensive Iran, whose water level has decreased significantly in recent years. This study aims to analyze changes in land use in the past and predict its changes in the future using land change modelling (LCM). In this study, Landsat images of TM and ETM sensors (in 2000, 2010 and 2020) related to May and June were analyzed with the shortest time interval. Images of all three time periods were classified into six categories: agriculture, forest, rangeland, waterbody, human-made areas, and low-lying cover, including soil and rock. The development trend of the next 20 years will be seen in medium-sized cities such as Saqqez.Regarding the use of oak forests, there is almost stability that the area of these forests increases from 532 thousand hectares to 510 thousand hectares, the rate of change of which is less than 2%, and this trend will decrease compared to previous periods in this area. In total, we expect 50% of the area to be destroyed in this area. Rangelands have increased from 52% of their area to 26% of their area and a large area of the area can be seen quickly and with low coverage. Therefore, low power cover or soil from 10% of the total area of the basin to 37% and most of the Urmia basin becomes desert or uncovered. Agriculture continues in its early 2000s with only 2% as these are the only areas that support this use with ecological potential.

Lake Urmia is one of the centers that has suffered a water shortage due to natural and man-made factors, and in case of lack of appropriate measures, apart from security problems, it can also impose exorbitant costs on the country. This issue requires more attention and conducting more comprehensive studies from various aspects, especially intelligent basin management and integrated studies of water and soil resources and the implementation of specialized and timely programs for the supply of agricultural, drinking and industrial water. Investigations carried out during the last two decades show that the water level of Lake Urmia has decreased by more than eight meters and its area has decreased by more than 80% and has been subjected to complete drying (Shadkam, 2017). Currently, the water level of Lake Urmia is 1271 meters above sea level, the volume of water is 3 billion cubic meters and its area is between 2500 and 3000 square kilometers, and to reach the water level of 1274 meters and an area of ​​4300 square kilometers, it needs 14 billion cubic meters of water. Also, in order to reach the ideal water level, i.e. 1276 meters and an area of ​​5700 square kilometers, the volume of water should increase to 30 billion cubic meters (Asri and Ahmadi, 2018). Also, the drying of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisations inside the lake basin. Agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and  proper management of water resources and accurate knowledge of water balance components are of particular importance (Abdali et al., 2018). Since the drying up of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisms inside the lake, agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and even political adversities, therefore it is necessary to apply proper management in order to adapt to the existing conditions and carry out basic planning. is inevitable (Fazli, 2014). Therefore, the mainreason for the lack of water and the drying up of Lake Urmia is the lack of foresight and long-term planning, and more importantly, the lack of discipline in the management and guidance of operational plans at the basin level (Mahdavi Damghani, 2019). Basically, strategic management includes 3 stages of strategy setting, strategy implementation and strategy evaluation, which the QSPM matrix (quantitative strategic planning matrix) is proportional to the first stage, that is, strategy setting. SWOT analysis includes the systematic identification of factors with which the strategy should have the best compatibility. The logic of the mentioned approach is that an effective strategy should maximize the strengths and opportunities of the system and minimize the weaknesses and threats. If this logic is used correctly, it will have very good results for choosing and designing an effective strategy (Zangiabadi and Mousavi, 2012). In 1989, Johnson et al., in a study, introduced SWOT as a tool used in the early stages of decision making. This matrix is ​​effective in implementing development plans if specific goals and required indicators are available (Johnson et al., 1990).In this research, it is tried to determine the management strategies of Urmia lake basin in order to adapt to water shortage and drought in the process of comprehensive basin management using strategic management models (SWOT and QSPM). Therefore, it is necessary to first identify the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the opportunities and threats of the basin, and then determine the practical strategies, and after analyzing them, using the QSPM model, prioritize strategies to modify or complete the plans. In progress, he suggested to the relevant officials. Quantitative strategic planning matrix QSPM is an analytical method that determines the relative attractiveness of strategies. With this method, it is possible to objectively determine the various strategies that are among the best strategies, and the results of the matrix of internal and external factors are used to prepare a quantitative strategic planning matrix. In fact, this technique determines which of the selected strategic options is possible and  then prioritizes these strategies (Zarrabi and Mahboob Far, 2012).Regarding the innovation in the research topic, in general, most of the studies have been done, they have discussed why the lake dries up and also provide solutions to improve the problem of dryness of Lake Urmia. Some studies have also addressed the problems caused by the drying up of Lake Urmia and its possible damages in the future and have concluded that it is important and necessary to try to revive this lake. Also, the researches that have been carried out in fields such as water shortage or drying up of Lake Urmia have mostly focused on the environmental, economic, health and sustainable development and even political, security and geopolitical aspects, but so far not much attention has been paid to the issue of strategic planning of Lake Urmia. and so far, a detailed assessment of the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the comprehensive management of the Lake Urmia basin has not been done. Therefore, this research has a scientific innovation from this point of view.
Research and analysis

There are different methods and models to investigate and analyze this issue. Each of these models has its own concept and insight and follows a special technique and instructions. Among them, the SWOT matrix, which evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the system, is more common and famous (Hill, T. and R. Westbrook, 1997). The SWOT model is one of the group decision-making models used in It is designed to determine long-term or short-term strategy and make big and key decisions about various issues and topics. The main task of the mentioned model is to determine the strategy to improve the efficiency or the situation (Bazrafkan and Ekhsish, 2015). Therefore, the application of SWOT analysis in the field of basin management in determining the optimal conditions and logical guidelines with appropriate executive and legal support, alignment between legislative, executive, supervisory organizations and the interpretation and analysis of the current conditions governing the basin, especially in the field of comprehensive studies and even The evaluation of the system letters and the description of the study services will be in different stages of justification, semi-detailed and detailed-executive (Chang, 2006 & Huang). Therefore, the use of new methods in the review of plans and programs can be very beneficial in order to achieve the goals of management. Based on the SWOT model, appropriate strategies are developed to achieve maximum strengths and opportunities and minimize weaknesses and threats (Nikolaou et al, 2010). It is necessary to set laws and extensive trainings and simultaneously conduct studies with the mentioned approach to understand the results obtained from it (Afkhami, 2018). In this research, SWOT and QSPM models were used to determine the appropriate strategies for determining adaptation patterns to water scarcity and drought in Lake Urmia. After collecting and analyzing the information obtained from the questionnaires using SPSS software, the total and average scores obtained for each factor were calculated, as well as the normalized weight along with the weighted score using EXPERT CHOICE software. Then, based on the ranking of the weighted points from the highest to the lowest, the top 5 strategies were determined in terms of the highest weighted points for each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Then the factors identified in the four modes of SO (offensive strategies), WO (conservative strategies), ST (competitive strategies) and WT (defensive strategies) were linked.

In order to carry out the applied model of the research, first the current situation of the basin was investigated, then based on the models and patterns of management and strategic planning, environmental and internal factors were investigated, and by determining the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities, it was analyzed. The findings of the analysis using the SWOT model and its related matrices include: evaluation matrices of external and internal factors and the combination of both, and finally, the QSPM quantitative strategic planning matrix is ​​prepared. To determine the strategy, examining the internal and external factors alone is not the answer, and to identify the areas that can be improved, in addition to the SWOT model, it is necessary to analyze it using the quantitative strategic planning matrix or QSPM. For this reason, after examining the SWOT matrix, the QSPM analysis method is used. In fact, the research application model is obtained from the combination of the two matrices of SWOT strategic analysis and QSPM quantitative strategic planning.

The studies conducted show that 10 factors have been identified as strengths and 17 factors have been identified as weaknesses to determine patterns of adaptation to water scarcity and drought based on the strategic management approach. Also, among the external factors (opportunities), 15 factors have been identified and 9 factors have been identified as threats.The most important factor among the strengths of 1-preventing new development in the agricultural sector and 2-stopping all dam construction projects has been identified in the study. On the other hand, the most important weaknesses have been identified: 1- the creation of a future research center in the environmental organization and 2- the pathology of the social effects caused by the drying up of the lake. The most important opportunity for Lake Urmia 1- Education and raising awareness 2- Applying ecosystem-based management has been identified in contrast to the most important threat to the basin of Lake Urmia 1- Increasing water extraction from underground sources (drilling illegal wells) and 2- The planting of non-native and aquatic species has been identified.Also, based on the sum total of internal and external factors, the scope of determining the strategy was determined. As explained in the methodology section of this research, the IFE-EFE matrix is ​​used to determine the range, and according to the calculations, the strategy range was placed in a conservative position. Therefore, WO strategies will be used for ranking and prioritizing strategies for the consistent management of Lake Urmia.In the next step, quantitative strategic planning matrix or QSPM was formed. In the quantitative strategic planning process, different strategies are examined and the best ones are selected. Meanwhile, in order to evaluate the attractiveness of each of the strategic factors in Table 4, a quantitative matrix for determining strategies compatible with water scarcity and drought for the management of Lake Urmia along with the attractiveness scores and other calculations is provided.

In this research, which was carried out in order to formulate and prioritize the strategy and patterns of adaptation to water shortage and drought in the Urmia catchment area, according to the different coefficients assigned to different internal and external factors, each of the influencing variables in the form of standardized matrices (matrix of internal factors and foreign) were measured and evaluated. The results obtained from the total weighted points of the matrix of internal factors showed that the management of the Urmia Lake catchment area has weaknesses in terms of adaptation to water shortage and drought in terms of internal factors, and in fact, the amount of weaknesses is more than the amount of strengths. Also, the results obtained from the total weighted points of the matrix of external factors showed that the compiled patterns are facing opportunities in terms of external factors. In other words, managers' advancement opportunities have a higher influence than threatening factors. The simultaneous analysis of internal and external factor matrices showed the general situation of the strategies related to the pattern of adaptation to water shortage and drought in the conservative area.QSPM matrix calculations in Table 5 showed that among the optimal WO strategies, priority is related to WO5, WO2, WO3, WO1 and WO4 strategies respectively. Therefore, in order to develop patterns of adaptation to water scarcity and drought in Lake Urmia, first of all, policies should be applied in the direction of changing the cultivation pattern by identifying salt-tolerant species suitable to the conditions of the region. Then apply ecosystem-oriented management by studying and implementing the national park's ecological protection program. In the next stage, the preparation of the plan to increase employment and alternative livelihoods should be done with the participation of the people, and finally, the prevention of unauthorized withdrawals from surface water should be implemented by applying integrated management and reforming the structure of the country's divisions, as well as organizing wells and installing volume smart meters in order to establish the water market.

Diversity is the basis of the sustainability of any system. Whatever the system varies, its sustainability and dynamism are preserved over time and place. Understanding the barriers to rural diversification is one of the attitudes towards sustainable rural development. This study aimed to study the barriers to the diversification of the rural economy from natural, institutional, economic and social dimensions in South Marhamatābād. The research is applied with a descriptive-analytical method. Library studies and field surveys (observation, interview, and questionnaire) were used to collect information. The spatial scope of this research is the south Marhamatābād village in Miāndoāb County. This sub-district has 19 villages and 3363 rural families. 353 families were selected through the modified Cochran formula as the research sample size. T-test was used to analyze data. The results of the research showed that from the viewpoint of the villagers of the region, in terms of the barriers to the diversification of the rural economy; organizational-institutional factors such as the lack of access of villagers to loans and financial resources, the lack or inappropriateness of financial services, and the lack of public and private sector investment, have had a more prominent influence on the creation of barriers to the diversification of the economic activities of villages in the region.Highlight -With proper management in order to preserve lakes and water resources, the problem of water shortage is solved and the possibility of developing employment and entrepreneurship is provided.-One of the most important ways to diversify the economy of coastal areas is the development of tourism. By providing infrastructure and investment from the private sector and facilitating business start-ups by government agencies, it is possible to increase employment and income in these areas. Extended Abstract Introduction Rural development programs, along with prioritizing the economic needs of local people and the participatory role of rural people on various activities in the rural economy, can lead to economic development and rural development and integrated and comprehensive rural development. The importance of the diversification approach to economic activities is that if the agricultural sector is in recession, the non-agricultural rural economy may be able to repair some of the damage and improve the economic and social resilience of rural settlements. Diversification of rural livelihood plays a prominent role in sustainable development, especially the economic, social and environmental sustainability of rural areas. Economic restructuring is possible by using the livelihood diversification strategy because as a fundamental solution, it creates employment, increases income, stabilizes the population, increases production and accumulation of savings, increases self-awareness, etc. in rural areas. Villages along Lake Urmia in the last decade due to neglect of environmental aspects and uncontrolled water withdrawal, has led to a decrease in water, especially in agriculture. In addition, the weakness of infrastructure, lack of water resources, lack of capital, lack of government facilities, lack of specialized personnel, etc. have caused problems in the region. Due to the weakening of economic activities in the region, recognizing the capabilities of the region and creating suitable conditions for various economic activities for the sustainability of rural settlements in the region are among the items that necessitate the need for this research. The purpose of this study is to investigate the barriers to diversification of rural economy from natural, infrastructural, institutional, economic and social dimensions in South Merhamatabad rural area. MethodologyThe present research is of applied type and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. In order to collect information, library studies and field survey (questionnaire and observation) have been used. The study village has 19 villages. According to the population of the region, the sample size was selected based on the Cochran's formula, equivalent to 345 questionnaires. In order to select the sample members from the statistical population, a simple random sampling method was used. Then, the sample size in the formula was calculated and a questionnaire was completed for each household in each village. Results and discussionAccording to exploratory studies in the region conducted by experts and local people and data available in the executive branch, the most important barriers to economic diversification of rural settlements in the region were classified into four categories: social, economic, natural and managerial-institutional. In order to investigate the effect of the variables on the lack of diversity of rural economic activities, multiple regression analyzes were used by stepwise method. The standardized beta coefficients related to institutional-managerial factors were calculated to be 0.582, which has the highest value compared to other independent variables entered in the regression model. Therefore, it can be said that the existing institutional-managerial factors such as; Inadequate roads, lack of production support services, inadequate banking services, lack of cooperatives, low level of investment and lack of conversion industries more than other restrictions affect the lack of diversity of rural economic activities in the region and later , Economic factors, social factors and natural factors have had an effect on the lack of diversity of rural economic activities. It can also be predicted that each unit of increase in the independent variable "institutional-managerial", 0.582 units increase in the lack of diversity of rural economic activities, plays a role. This figure is 0.080 units in the variable "environmental factors (provided that the independent variables of the model are constant), 0.273 units in the variable" economic factors "and 0.257 units in the variable" social factors ". Therefore, it can be said. The most important factor limiting the economic diversification of the villages in the region is the institutional-managerial barriers. ConclusionAccording to the field observations of the researcher, it can be stated that one of the obstacles faced by the inhabitants of the study area for economic development is the lack of possible infrastructure, reduction of the water level of Lake Urmia and as a result the lack of sufficient and necessary investment. Lack of sufficient motivation and skills to establish non-agricultural activities. So that if appropriate facilities are provided by banks and governmental and non-governmental institutions to the villagers of Marhamatabad district, it will increase the motivation for non-agricultural activities and improve the situation of water and soil resources, especially in the agricultural sector. Therefore, the lack of proper investment and income reduced the possibility of creating non-agricultural employment related to agriculture in rural areas. It is necessary to identify new areas of income that are not dependent on land and water, given the region's constraints on economic diversification. In addition, access to low-interest credit, education and skills acquisition, marketing, self-confidence, the establishment of non-agricultural cooperatives, and attention to the capabilities of women and youth should be a priority for the region's economic diversification. According to the obtained results, in order to diversify the rural activities of the region, in the first priority, it is suggested to: expand economic activities such as industrial livestock, poultry breeding, natural and cultural tourism, cold storage, grading warehouses and product segregation and construction Salt refinery on the shores of Lake Urmia. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ ContributionAuthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the Meteorological Organization for permission to use the daily Meteorology data.

The dust is one of the natural hazards of arid and semi-arid regions, including Iran. When this problem coincides with the drying up of the largest salt lake in the Middle East (Lake Urmia), the occurrence of a salt dust storm will be inevitable, which will have profound effects on human communities, animals and plants. On the other hand, agriculture and the growth of crops are also strongly affected by dust deposition on the leaf surface. Therefore, in order to investigate the effect of dust on growth and some physiological characteristics of three important crops in Azerbaijan, namely wheat C3 monocot (Triticum aestivum L.), corn C4 monocot (Zea mays L.) and chickpea C3 dicot (Cicer arietinum L.), a completely random experiment designed with three replications. Treatments included two levels of dust (zero and 10 grams of dust per m2), Application of dust for 3 days had no significant effect on wheat growth. Maize responded to this environmental pollution by increasing growth and chickpeas by decreasing growth. The content of photosynthetic pigments decreased in chickpea leaves, increased in wheat and remained constant in corn. Dust increased the sugar content of corn and peas. Also, exposure to dust had little effect on the total protein content of wheat and corn, while the protein content of chickpeas showed a significant and clear decrease. Changes in the various parameters of the studied plant species can be considered as an adaptation to protect plants against dust stress. Corn and wheat seem to be more resilient, but chickpeas are stunted. Selecting a suitable crop species for cultivation in areas that receive a large amount of salty dust annually can be one of the important strategies to reduce the adverse effects of dust on the agricultural economy.

Due to a better understanding of the status of resilience and optimal management of distribution services, it will be essential to analysis of spatial resilience patterns and examine the spatial relationships between resilience and influencing factors, including distributive justice. Therefore, the purpose of this descriptive-analytical study is to investigate distributive justice and its effect on the resilience of villages west of Lake Urmia to drought. The statistical population of the present study was all villages located within 10 km of the shore of Lake Urmia, which were selected 53 villages as a research environment and finally 380 households as the human analysis units using the Cochran's formula and by multi-stage random sampling method. The research instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. In this study, the effective factors (distributive justice indices) on the resilience of the studied villages were investigated by geographic weighted regression (GWR). The results of GWR regression showed that the variables entered in the model explain 47.8% of the dependent variable. Also, the results of regression model (OLS) showed that infrastructure, trade-service and economic indicators have the greatest impact on the resilience to drought in the studied villages.