آزادسازی تجاری

In the world, most of the national economies have experienced economic stagnation after the financial crisis. This has raised the need to examine the impact of financial innovation and economic growth to protect countries from problems that may arise from financial sector market failures. With the growth in the global economy, it is one of the basic factors of financial innovation that is observed in developed and developing countries and creates fruitful results for the economy. The relationship between financial innovation and economic growth during the last few decades is one of the topics of concern for economists.
In this study, using the PMG test, we test the effect of financial innovation indicators on economic growth in developed and developing countries for the period from 2000 to 2022. Three proxy variables have been used to calculate financial innovation: liquidity to the volume of money in circulation (M2/M1), bank credit to the private sector, and a proxy with mobile phone penetration is used to calculate the number of active internet subscribers to the population.
In developed countries, in the long run, all the coefficients except the inflation rate are significant at the level of 5%. The effect of government spending, gross capital formation and trade liberalization on economic growth has been positive. The coefficients of M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration are negative and the reliability coefficient is positive. In developing countries, coefficients of M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration are negative and credits are positive. Financial innovation indicators M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration rate (MB) have a negative effect on economic growth. The growth of innovation cannot be the basis of economic development for developing economies; Because the infrastructure is not available in these countries.

Investment is considered one of the most important components of economic growth, so that the fluctuations of this variable will cause economic prosperity or stagnation. Based on this, for a long-time theorist have been trying to prepare a model to explain investment behavior and identify the most important factors affecting it. Among the policies implemented in an economy, structural change policies are of great importance. Therefore, in this study, the role of structural change policies (privatization, financial liberalization, trade liberalization) as the most important economic policies on the investment volume in Iran has been investigated.

In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the autoregression model with extended intervals (ARDL) was used. The required information was received from the websites of Central Bank, Iran Statistics Center and Privatization Organization for the period from 1991 to 2020. The variables of the value of transferred assets and the intensity of trade indicate the policy of privatization and trade liberalization, respectively. The variables of floating exchange rate, foreign assets of the central bank and the value of stock transactions to GDP indicate the policy of financial liberalization.

The results of this research showed that only the privatization policy had a positive (non-significant) effect on the country's investment, and the policies of financial liberalization and trade liberalization have different behaviors in the short and long term on domestic investment. The trade liberalization variable has a positive effect in the short term and a negative effect on investment in the long term. Examining the variables that make up the financial liberalization policy shows that financial liberalization has no significant effect on investment in the short term, and the effect of this policy is significant in the long term. Each of the coefficients of the variables of the central bank's foreign assets, free exchange rate, value of stock transactions to GDP is equal to -0.05, -0.24 and 0.26 respectively. Among the mentioned variables, the free exchange rate and the value of stock transactions have a significant effect on domestic investment. The effect of these two variables on investment is positive (0.02) in the long term, also the total price index variables and the ratio of construction expenditures to current will cause a decrease and the gross domestic product will cause an increase in investment. The value of the estimated error correction coefficient (-0.85) shows that 85% of domestic investment imbalances are eliminated in each period. In other words, the imbalance in domestic investment will be resolved in less than two periods (2 years).

The extensive changes caused by the implementation of structural change policies in different countries led to the study of the effects of financial liberalization and trade liberalization policies on the country's investment during the period from 1991 to 2020. The results of the estimation of the autoregression model with wide intervals show that only the privatization policy has a positive (non-significant) effect on the country's investment, and the policies of financial liberalization and trade liberalization have different behaviors in the short and long term on investment. They have internal Therefore, it is recommended that in the implementation of the aforementioned policies, their possible results are predicted in advance and appropriate measures are taken to compensate for the short-term negative effects. Increasing the degree of openness of the economy, which requires the acceleration of trade exchanges, will increase investment in the country in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to provide the grounds for attracting domestic investment by reforming the appropriate structure in this sector. Also, in order to eliminate the negative effects of the implementation of this policy in the long term, it is necessary to specify a limit on the level of trade liberalization in the country in order to reduce the negative effects of this policy in the long term. Considering the effect of the total price index on investment, it is recommended that the government always pays attention to the creation of economic stability and the control of the inflation rate, because inflation (price index) in addition to reducing the real interest rate, has caused an increase in uncertainty about the future. and reduces investment. Considering the positive effect of the country's gross domestic product on investment, one of the most important recommendations for the growth of investment in the country is to adopt growth-oriented policies. Also, due to the variable negative effect of the ratio of construction expenditures to current expenditures in this study, it is necessary to change the balance of government expenditures (construction and current expenditures) in favor of the country's construction expenditures, in addition to implementing financial expansion policies for the growth of the economy. investment in the country will increase. So that the results of this study showed that the low share of construction expenses compared to current expenses caused the effect of government expenses (the ratio of these two expenses to each other) on domestic investment to be evaluated negatively.

In the past decade, there have been many debates about globalization and its effects on economic, political and social aspects. In this regard, different countries have tried to lead to integration through trade agreements. These trade agreements have affected the structure of countries. On the other hand, the wage gap and wage inequality have created many challenges. Therefore, the paper assesses the impact of trade liberalization on the labour market by focusing on skill wage premiums. The paper tests these effects by developing a monopolistic competition model with two factors of production characterized by their skill levels (skilled and unskilled labour). The paper finds that tariff level reductions cause a moderate increase in the wage gap. Thus, our analysis shows that a 10% decrease in tariffs is accompanied by a 16.1 % increase in the skill premium. Also, the same level of tariff cut will on average increase the gender wage gap by 26.8%. The study implies that trade liberalization tends to benefit more workers in the skilled labour market compared to workers in the unskilled labour market.

This study evaluates the effect of the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone on the development of counties located in this region. For this purpose, the development index of the counties has been calculated based on 22 variables and the TOPSIS method for 2011 and 2016. The results indicated that the development convergence hypothesis between the counties is not confirmed. Also, the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has increased the difference (positive difference) in the level of development of Maku county from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Showt county, despite the improvement in the development rank, the difference (negative difference) has increased from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Poldasht county, while the rank deteriorates, difference (negative difference) from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province has also increased. In summary of the results, it can be argued that the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has not made a significant change in this zone in terms of development.

An efficient financial market in the economy can cause economic growth by ensuring the optimal allocation of financial resources, efficient allocation of economic resources, and reducing the cost of capital by accelerating capital accumulation processes in the financial system. The relationship between financial innovation and economic growth has been one of the topics of concern for economists for the past few decades, and different views and opinions have been raised in this regard. In this article, three indicators of financial innovation, i.e. the ratio of liquidity volume to the volume of money in circulation, the ratio of bank credits to the private sector, and the penetration rate of the Internet on the economic growth of Iran during the years 1375-1399, using the auto-distributional regression model with a break (ARDL) in Short term and long term has been paid. The results show that the short-run credit ratio and the long-run ratio have a significant positive effect on Iran's economic growth. Also, trade liberalization has a positive effect on economic growth in the long-run. It is suggested that financial innovation expands financial activities in the economy with the emergence of new forms and structures of financial institutions, better financial services through technological advancement, improvement of financial products and capital accumulation by encouraging savings in society, which in turn leads to economic growth. In addition, an efficient financial sector requires financial innovation that allows efficient allocation of economic resources to productive methods.

The negative consequences of financial crises on the real sector of the economy of developing countries have led policymakers to pay special attention to monitoring and evaluating the financial stability of the banking sector. The role of banking sector in developing countries is very important because the financial sector provides financial services to the rest of the economy. Liberalization theory argues that liberalization of international trade and financial flows can promote financial stability and the development of banks. Trade liberalization reduces transaction costs while increasing the volume of trade, and financial liberalization leads to better allocation of financial resources by creating a competitive environment in the financial market and facilitating the mobilization of capital. Therefore, in this study, the effect of financial and trade liberalization on the banking stability of 25 selected developing countries in the period 2000 to 2019, using the GMM dynamic regression model has been investigated. The results show financial and trade liberalization have positive effects on the banking stability of selected developing countries. Simultaneous implementation of financial and trade liberalization has an unexpected negative effect on banking stability. Findings also show that per capita income increases banking stability and inflation decreases banking stability.

Aim and Introduction :

Unemployment is a major issue in developing countries. The high rate of unemployment means that the country does not use the workforce effectively. Unemployment is the worst economic problem due to its negative impact on the individual and society and the speed of its spread in the world. Therefore, solving the problem of unemployment is one of the most important goals of institutions. Trade liberalization is one of the effective factors in reducing the unemployment rate.Globalization is an inevitable process with different economic, social and political aspects. Meanwhile, trade liberalization is considered as the main symbol of globalization and its most important driving force. Therefore, considering the high unemployment rate in most of the provinces of Iran, with the increase in commercial liberalization in line with the economic growth and development, it can be seen in the sectors that have a relative advantage. Increasing national security and political and economic stability provides the necessary infrastructure to attract foreign investors. Therefore, by increasing trade liberalization, it is possible to overcome many economic and political problems in the provinces of Iran, and its effects will spill over to the provinces with the high unemployment rate and will increase economic growth, will increase gross domestic product and finally will reduce the unemployment rate in the provinces of the country.

In spatial econometrics, spatial effects are added to the performance of periodic or complex regression models (panels). Therefore, in spatial econometrics, sample information has a spatial component. When data has a spatial component, two issues can be discussed: (1) Spatial dependence, and (2) Spatial heterogeneity. Before estimating spatial panel models, we need to perform spatial dependence tests and to check the existence of autocorrelation between disturbance terms. The existence of spatial coherence between observations and spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms indicates the need to use spatial panel models. To do this, Moran, Jerry C, and Jetis Ord J tests are used. The Moran test examines the assumption of spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms. In spatial econometric models, to model spatial reactions, it is necessary to select the numerical value of spatial directions. For this purpose, we have two sources of assumptions: (1) Position on the coordinate plane, which is expressed by latitude and longitude, so that the distance of any point in the location, or distance of any observation located at any point relative to fixed or central points or observations can be calculated. (2) The source of spatial information is neighborhood and neighborhood, which expresses the relative location in the space of an observed peripheral unit, compared to other such scales.

In this study, the impact of trade liberalization on the unemployment rate in the provinces of Iran over the period 2006-2019 was investigated with a spatial econometric approach. First, to check the spatial dependence, the spatial dependence of the provinces was confirmed by the Moran and Jerry C test, and based on the significance of the above tests, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel model. According to the results, trade liberalization shows positive effects on reducing the unemployment rate of these provinces, and this result is compatible with the results of other studies including Yanıkkaya (2008), Li et al (Li & et al., 2020), Adou (2021), Amini and Muradzad (2014) and Samimi et al (2014). The variables of gross domestic product and construction credits have positive and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate. However, the inflation rate and the wage rate have negative and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate of the provinces of Iran.

Since according to the research literature, part of the unemployment rate is reduced through various channels such as trade liberalization, attracting foreign investment and export, considering that macroeconomic decisions are made in the center of the country, it is suggested It is possible, taking into account the increase in regional and provincial decision powers, it is possible to achieve favorable economic effects in the direction of improving macro-economic variables, policy and regional planning.The cooperation between the central government and the provincial centers increases the security of the region (country). As a result, high security encourages foreign investment, increases the stability of the economic policy, facilitates the laws and removes obstacles. National security increases the degree of commercial openness, increases production and reduces the unemployment rate.To achieve a balanced and convergent regional development and to resolve the spatial and financial disparities and heterogeneities of the country's provinces, it is suggested that the allocation of budget resources to the less developed provinces should be increased. And the share of allocation of budget resources of different provinces should be converged. As a result, the provinces of the country, especially the less developed provinces should be able to flourish as much as possible from the point of view of economic growth and unemployment rate reduction.The lack of economic infrastructure in rural areas, especially in the industrial sector, increases the rate of emigration and the overflow of labor to urban areas. Therefore, the improvement of economic infrastructure and the increase of trade liberalization policies lead to the improvement of technology and innovation in the less developed regions, and ultimately lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate in the province level.

According to relevant international economics theories, imports either substitute for or complement FDI. The present study aims to examine this issue in 27 selected developing countries that joined the WTO during 1990-2019. At the first step, Granger and Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests were used to determine the direction of causality between two variables. The results demonstrated a strong one-way causal relationship from imports to FDI. Then, the effect of imports on FDI was estimated by FGLS method. The results showed a significant positive effect of imports on FDI. Hence, in the selected countries, imports complemented FDI rather than replacing it. This finding confirms that a competitive economy in which low barriers are imposed on imports is more attractive for foreign investors than a protected economy. The results also confirmed the hypothesis of the positive effect of accession to the WTO on FDI absorption. The obligation of the member states of the WTO to observe the principle rules of non-discrimination and transparency (through binding their tariffs and trade regulations), as well as to respect all aspects of intellectual property rights and above all the efficiency and effectiveness of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) of the WTO are among the main reasons behind this fact. Therefore, Iran by lowering its tariffs through joining the WTO, not only does not cause destruction of its industries in long run but it is expected to accelerate the economic growth based on its comparative advantages.

Trade liberalization, both directly and indirectly (through structural changes), affects the total factor productivity. The key factor in determining the direction of this impact is the quality of institutions. In this study, to consider the most important aspects of structural change, we propose a multidimensional index for structural change using the principal component method and then applying the Bayesian averaging method (IVBMA) econometrics model evaluate the effect of trade liberalization, structural changes, and the quality of institutions on total factor productivity in a subsample of 64 countries. our IVBMA results indicate that structural change, business freedom, and resources rents are the most important variables in explaining the observed differences in the total factor productivity index. Structural change with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 0.74 Is the most important independent variable to explain the observed differences in the level of total factor productivity. Increasing the multidimensional index of structural change with a posterior coefficient of 0.14 has a negative effect on total factor productivity. An increase in business freedom index and resources rents leads to 0.39 and 0.22 increase in total factor productivity index. Trade liberalization with a posterior inclusion probability of 0.45 had a positive effect on total factor productivity. Granger causality test also shows that trade liberalization is the cause of structural change; Therefore, trade liberalization in this study has caused structural changes that reduce productivity.

Instability and Volatility in economic growth will cause significant changes in the economy and its variables. Therefore, examining the cause of Volatility and instability in economic growth can eliminate or improve their effectiveness. In this study, using by vector Auto-Regression model, the relation of economic adjustment policies and instability of economic growth during the period 1360 to 1397 have been investigated. For this purpose, the annual fluctuations of economic growth were calculated using the Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and the effects of the three policies of privatization, trade liberalization and financial liberalization were measured. The results of this study showed that financial liberalization variables have the lowest (0.6%) and trade liberalization variables have the highest (21%) share on the instability of economic growth. Also, examining the rate of growth instability response to restructuring policies shows that these policies are not compatible with each other so that trade liberalization policy reduces instability and privatization policy increases Economic growth will be stable in the short and long term.

Increasing economic integrity and expansion of trade across countries have caused international movement of production factors in order to achieve higher income. According to Mundell's theory (1975) and based on traditional theories of trade, unequal and different endowment of factors of production in countries cause the establishment of trade and the movement of factors, until reaching the equalized factor endowment. In other words, factors movement is a substitute for trade, although in most cases the empirical evidence reveals different and sometimes contradictory results to Mandell's theory. The present study investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the international movement of skilled and unskilled labor in Iran. Accordingly, trade liberalization is stimulated through four scenarios of import tariffs reduction of 5%, 10%, 25% and 50% in agricultural, industrial and the whole imported goods by using Global Trade Analysis Project. The findings of this research indicate that there is a complementary relationship between the liberalization of industrial and all imported goods with the mobility of skilled and unskilled labor. However, trade liberalization in the agricultural sector and skilled labor mobility are a complement, they are substitutes in terms of the unskilled labor movement.

The industrial sector plays an important role in creating job opportunities. Therefore, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization on the industrial sector is of particular importance. In this regard, this study investigated the effects of reducing importation tariff rates in the industrial sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance. These effects were analyzed based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (25% reduction and 50% reduction of tariff rates) using the GEMPACK software. Trade and specialization cause changes in the structure of production activities and consequently changes in wages and rents of production factors. Thus, the total effect of changing trade policies on the economic welfare index is measured. In addition to the above-noted factors, the volume of initial trade and initial tariff rates can affect the welfare rate. Considering that the tariff rate imposed by Iran is higher than Eurasia, the level of welfare is lower in Iran. Since some activities have various effects in different scenarios, they should be investigated closely to balance welfare. Tariff rate changes are also recommended to be done with high accuracy.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the industry sector tariff rate changes on the Iranian households’ welfare under the conditions of the resistance economy. To achieve this goal, based on Samadi et al.'s (2019) survey, the computable general equilibrium model of Decallo et al. (2013) has been adjusted. After making the adjustments, using the adjusted social accounting matrix of 2011 and GAMS software, the equations were solved and analyzed in the form of three scenarios. The findings show that in the first scenario, without assuming the implementation of the notified policies of the resistance economy, the reduction of tariff rate in all sectors of industry causes the level of households’ welfare will become negative. In the second scenario, assuming the implementation of the notified policies of the resistance economy, welfare in all sectors of industry except medium-tech industries is positive and its trend is descending in all sectors except high-tech industries. In the third scenario, assuming the strengthening of social and institutional factors, welfare in all sectors is positive and its trend is upward in medium and high-tech industries and downward in low-tech industries. Therefore, the reduction of tariff rate is recommended only in the high-tech industries if the notified policies of resistance economy are implemented.

This paper aims to analyze the long-run effects of Iran's tariffs reduction on the value added in agricultural, industrial and service sectors. The study is conducted in the framework of accession to the WTO and by applying the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. To this end, the model is first calibrated using the data base of the 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Next, the model is simulated as a rival scenario on the basis of the market access commitments of 22 developing countries acceded to the WTO. Under the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, the economy, without joining the WTO, is supposed to be developed at the rate of the population growth (2 percent) annually. The results indicate a substantial reduction of the value added in industrial and services sectors following accession to the WTO, but there is a moderate growth in the value added of the agricultural sector after a decade of slow reduction. By the third decade after accession to the WTO, the value added in the industrial and service sectors under the rival scenario will be respectively 80 and 55 percent less than the value added under the BaU scenario. The average value-added growth of agricultural, industrial and service sectors under the rival scenario are found to be 0/5, -3/4 and -0/7 respectively.

One of the reason affecting on the national economy is, GDP . But it only covers market value of final goods and services produced in the economy;it is not inclusive negative environmental impacts.On the other hand as a result of trade liberalization, economic activity expanded and use of resources and energy inappropriately increases.So theoretically, demonstrate that GDP is not a good criterion for measuring the economic well-being. Consistently, standards for calculating national income has been proposed to raising the inadequacy of these measures standards, is green GDP. In this study, to evaluate the impact of trade liberalization on green GDP, methods gravitational search algorithm and Firefly algorithm that has been used for some given time in the years 1961- 2015. The results of the evaluation of the impact of trade liberalization show that this variable is positive and significant effect on green GDP. The results show that due to the positive impact of trade liberalization on green GDP, this variable as a variable known to reduce pollution; this means that an increase in trade transactions with Iran will lead to improved environmental quality.

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on Social Accounting Matrix data of year 2011. The results show that in current institutional situation of Iran, the reduction of tariffs in the agriculture, horticulture, forestry and mining sectors can reduce inequality and tariff reduction in sectors of food industry, low technology industries, high technology industries, higher education, transportation and other services will increase inequality in urban and rural areas. By reducing tariff rates in mid-tech industries, inequality in urban and rural areas initially decreases and then increase. Reducing tariffs in oil and gas and healthcare sectors does not affect inequality in urban and rural areas. It is also shown that in the case of implementing resistance economy policies and improving institutional quality, tariff rate reduction in all sectors of production will reduce inequality. Reducing tariff rates in primary and secondary education sectors, housing and other sectors that de not have any link to outside world has no effect on inequality, both in the current institutional situation and in the case of institutional quality improvement as a result of implementing resistance economy policies. Therefore, it is suggested that attention be paid to improvement of institutional quality in the country, along with the implementation of resistance economy policies.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) and increased trade volume have been known as resources for capital accumulation and economic growth in developing countries. FDI and trade are also associated with  technology transfer, linkages with international markets, and transfer of management skills. However, increasing economic growth requires higher energy consumption, which leads to environmental degradation in these countries. This study probes the effect of foreign direct investment and trade openness on Carbon dioxide emissions (as an indicator of environmental quality) and clean energies in the selected developing countries using a panel-ARDL approach during 1971-2014. The findings of this study reveal that despite the positive and significant effects of direct foreign investment on economic growth and the use of clean energy, they have no significant effect on the environmental degradation in these countries. The results also show that trade openness has a positive and significant correlation with carbon dioxide emissions, while this variable has a negative and significant effect on clean energy consumption. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the speed of adjustment towards long-term equilibrium in this model is relatively slow.

Trade liberalization is the removal of restrictions created by policymakers on the way of macroeconomic variables in the market. Trade liberalization leads to more specialization in production, division of labor, and increase in income. In turn, increase in income results in educational opportunities, better health and medical care services, and provision of more favorable social services by governments. Moreover, trade promotion improves the cultural interactions, and increases the variety of goods available to consumers. Trade introduces new types of goods and services, such as medical and sanitary equipment, to domestic markets. Thus, the health and longevity of individuals increase, and affect the human development index. Trade liberalization can reduce government tax revenues and tariffs. Reduction in government revenues affects the quality and quantity of public government services, such as education, health, and decreases the human development index. Trade promotion can also impose adverse effects on environment and sustainable development. In this regard, this paper aims to examine the effect of trade liberalization level on human development index in a group of selected middle-income countries during the period 2000-2015. The results of models estimated by the fixed effects method indicate that the trade liberalization has a positive and significant impact on the human development index

This paper aims to analyze the long run effects of Iran's tariff reduction in the framework of accession to the WTO on agricultural and industrial sectors trade, using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011,. According to the results, joining the WTO will lead to a 70 percent jump in the imports of agricultural products. Then, the process of mild reduction of imports initiates and continues for a decade and stabilizes in the second and third decade following accession. Agricultural exports also grow slowly after a reduction for a decade. Hence, the negative effects of joining the WTO in agricultural sector is mostly appeared in the first decade after accession. In the industrial sector, by contrast, imports and exports jump 21 and 3 percent, respectively, after which the reduction process starts and continues more sharply and lengthy than agricultural sector. Average estimated long-run growth rates of industrial imports and exports are -3/7 and -3/5 percent, respectively. Although total imports increases in short-run due to tariff reduction, it decreases, in long-run, due to fall in the demand for domestic production, GDP, and household real income. Furthermore, decreases too. low competitiveness of local products will lead to a fall in GDP and total exports