ارز

Mehrdad Mahmoudian Zamaneh Mohammad Jafari Morteza Ezzati Abstract Aim and

The housing sector is one of the main pillars of the economy in many countries, including Iran. This sector plays an important role in economic development, employment and the welfare level of households. As a result of the sanctions, with restrictions on the foreign sector, the exchange rate changes, and as a result, the market of other assets, including the supply of housing, changes. The interrelationship between the housing market, exchange rate and economic sanctions has made us investigate the factors affecting the production and supply of housing under the influence of the exchange rate and sanction. The method used for data analysis is the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The findings of this research show that the price of housing, the number of issued building permits and inflation have a positive effect on the supply of housing, and the exchange rate, sanctions and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the supply of housing. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect on the reduction of housing supply through the exchange rate.

Different methods can be used to estimate the model of the equations of this study, such as single equation methods or methods of solving simultaneous equations, whose estimates are different. The most common methods of solving simultaneous equations are the two-stage and three-stage least squares regression methods, as well as apparently unrelated regression, which is used when there is a relationship between the error part of the equations Or there is a simultaneous correlation. The method discussed in this research is the model of apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) or apparently unrelated regression equations (SURE), which was proposed in 1962 in econometrics. It is used in this review.

The findings of this research show that housing price variables, the number of building permits issued, and inflation have a positive effect on the housing supply, while the exchange rate, sanctions, and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the housing supply. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect through the exchange rate on the reduction of housing supply. Discussion and

In the preliminary results, the estimate for the first equation of the average effect of labor wages as a part of the production cost was not significant. But in estimates, the effect of the price of construction materials is significant. This variable was removed from the model. It can be said that one of the reasons for the non-significance of the wage variable is its low relative growth compared to the growth of housing prices and the growth of construction materials. On the other hand, the share of wages in housing construction costs is much lower than the costs of materials and other costs. This causes the wage rate in Iran to be less effective in housing supply. It can also be said that an increase in the provincial GDP, housing prices and the number of building permits issued increases housing supply. The results of the second equation show that exports, imports, sanctions index, liquidity volume and provincial gross domestic product explain 99% of exchange rate changes. It is worth mentioning that the increase in exports and the sanctions index increases the exchange rate, but with the increase in imports, the exchange rate decreases, which shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and imports. Since the exchange rate increases under the influence of the sanctions and the exchange rate has a negative effect on the housing supply, it can be said that the sanctions have a direct effect on the economic activities of supply and demand due to the disruption of security, certainty and economic stability. Housing has an effect on the supply of housing due to the change in the exchange rate.

This research estimates the simultaneous effects of sanctions, unemployment, inflation, and other factors with potential negative impacts on the economy, focusing on the context of Iran. The analysis applies a vector autoregression (VApR) model to data spanning Iran's economy from 1358 to 1400 (1979–2021). The findings highlight the detrimental influence of United Nations economic sanctions on Iran's economic growth. Increased government spending, higher unemployment rates, and rising inflation exert negative pressures on long-term economic growth. In contrast, increased investment and higher foreign exchange rates (in rials) enhance long-term economic growth but contribute to economic instability. This study addresses a critical need in economic policymaking by simultaneously assessing these factors' impacts.

The future growth of the demand for food consumption will bring significant opportunities for agriculture in the world, both quantitatively (the amount of consumption and variety) and qualitatively. Nevertheless, this sector is faced with many challenges to respond to the future demand in a sustainable way due to the changing conditions of production, including weather, etc. To strengthen the capacity of this sector so that it can respond to future challenges and opportunities, the use of different policies and tools is always considered important for the development plans of countries. Different countries of the world support this sector in various ways. The investigation of political developments in the field of agriculture in the world shows that a number of countries have always provided support based on past policies and a number of countries have taken new measures. But the type and amount of support is not clear in many countries. In this regard, it is interesting to note that industrialized and developed countries, as supporters of the free market system, provide the most support to the agricultural sector.

In most countries, the amount of support for the agricultural sector is estimated based on the indicators introduced and modified by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It includes agricultural producer support estimate (the annual monetary value of gross transfers from consumers and taxpayers to agricultural producer), agricultural general services support, agricultural consumers support estimate (the annual monetary value of gross transfers from or to consumers of agricultural commodities), and the total support estimate for the agricultural sector.

In case of an increase in marketing costs, the price supported by the government's pricing policies, exchange rate and budget support will increase with the aim of supporting the community of agricultural producers. The foreign exchange policy of allocating government currency to the import of agricultural products has gained different unexpected results every year. In 2016, this policy measure improved the situation for supporting agricultural producers, whereas, in 2017, the establishment of preferential currency reduced the support of all agricultural products. The continued establishment of official currency and the stabilized currency system in the years 2017-2019 negatively evaluated the protection of consumers. Different currency policies achieved different results every year. In those years, the policy of allocating preferential currency to the import of agricultural products worked to the detriment of the consumers of the agricultural sector. In 2017, different conditions were established and the establishment of government currency allocation policy increased the support of agricultural consumers. On average, the support of general services took a different share of the total support of the agricultural sector in each year. In 2016, with the change of foreign exchange policy and the allocation of government currency to the import of agricultural products and the strengthening of producer support, the share of support for public services was 13%. In 2017, considering the total support, this percentage was negative and equal to 22%. In 2016, the total support for the agricultural sector was evaluated positively, while, in terms of government currency allocation, the total support in 2018-2019 was negative.Conclusions and Policy Implication: The negative results about the producer, consumer and total support indicators show that the combination of support policies and macro policies and exogenous variables such as border prices has not been effective. Also, with regard to the wide range of support tools, alternative policies with more optimal results can be chosen. Mandatory and suppressive pricing policies at the producer level can bring additional concerns to support domestic producers at the same time as global prices increase and the value of the national currency weakens. In the current situation of Iran and the increase in the exchange rate, it is necessary to take cautions in applying such policies. When the budgetary support decreases, it is obvious that budgetary restrictions cause the tendency to take distorting policies that impose less financial burden on the government. Therefore, it seems that, by gradually moving from adopting distorting policies towards budgetary and support payments, especially in the field of infrastructures, more favorable and optimal results can be gained.

Smuggling goods and currency as a destructive factor of the country’s economy, by creating deviation in investment and expansion of economic activities, disorganizes economic equivalence and progress. So the governments are trying to confront with it in any way; thus since the problem of Smuggling is wicked in Iran, different proceedings and attitudes couldn’t control this progress. So in this research, in addition to distinguishing and determine the fields and the results of smuggling and enumerating lawful actions done to confront with smuggling goods and currency in Iran, with pragmatics case of wicked problems according to RITTEl and WEBBER(who believe: these cases not only require alternative action strategies but also alternative ways of observing and enabling)and using this descriptive analytic way and guttering library resources, documentary and statistical, we are going to answer the question: At the present situation of Iran what patterns are necessary to confront with the smuggling goods and currency? Statistics show that, although there is rules to confront with smuggling establishing the staff to fight with smuggling goods and currency and administrative efforts of constriction, disciplinary and complexity of the ways used by the smugglers, the average of smuggling goods and currency in Iran has been increasing and as a result of the corruption perceptions Index is not including the ranking of Iran in the transparency of international organization. So according to these writers, with the participatory cooperative guidelines and using economic policy to increase domestic and international qualifies and trying to concur renting domestic rules and international trades we can help to improve the situation.

he spread of the virus (Quid 19) since January 2017 in Wuhan, China has caused many diseases and deaths in the world. The consequences of this virus have caused recession and other global problems so that even developed countries claim to have social health systems. Advanced were in trouble. Questions or hypotheses including: a) The main questions of the research: Does the financial crisis of Corona have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies? Model sub-questions: Do currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Do oil crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Sub-hypotheses of the research: Currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected listed companies. Oil crises have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies. The statistical population is all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization that the research return time period is seven years between 1392 and 1399. The method used in the present study is descriptive-analytical, which in order to adapt economic theories to the realities of society, the relationships between variables are examined using statistics and after matching the theories, using From the inferential statistics and econometric method of the panel in Iveys software, the rejection or proof of the presented hypotheses is tested. All three models were accepted.

In this study, we seek to examine the effects of oil, gold and currency prices on the country's Business cycles. For this purpose, using the rotational model and change of Markov switching regime, we study the effect of oil and monetary shocks, currency fluctuations and financial crises and the gold market on the country's trade cycles. The research period is from 1985 to 2018. The results of the Markov model estimates for the recession and boom period show; In the second regime, the boom period, with the increase of positive oil shock, the production gap decreases, and with the increase of monetary shock and financial crises, inflation and increase of gold price in the recession and boom regime, the production gap increases. Economics In the present study, there are 17 periods of recession versus 16 periods of prosperity in the first model, 15 periods of recession versus 18 periods of prosperity in the second model, and 17 periods of recession versus 16 periods of prosperity for the third model. Also, based on the results of transfer probability functions, it is observed that the survival rate during the recession in Iran has a high probability and all these factors increase the risk of investing in industrial projects and lead to an increase in the production gap.

The overall stock market index of listed companies is one of the important criteria in assessing macroeconomics. Among the factors affecting the stock price index are the exchange rate, oil prices and economic growth. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations, crude oil price and economic growth rate on the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange, during the period of 2009-2018 using monthly data has been studied. Then, to calculate exchange rate fluctuations, oil prices and economic growth, the regression method of conditional variance variance was used and then it was estimated through the generalized model torque model. The results of the model estimate showed that the fluctuations of the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange are affected by exchange rate fluctuations, crude price and economic growth, and among them the total index of a previous period and the exchange rate have a greater impact on the overall stock market index. Leaves securities.

Due to the importance of studing the behavior of asset markets, the risk aversion term and its operational calculation has attracted many researchers. The present study intends to examine this issue by considering a portfolio with three assets in the three  markets of stock, currency and gold. Therefore, by examining the fluctuations of previous years in the portfolio consisting of three macroeconomic assets , stocks, currency and gold, we can assess the risk aversion of investors in these markets and the causal relationship between these markets and take steps to construct long-term policy goals.

To investigate the issue, using a mathematical equilibrium model and dynamic econometric methods, the monthly data of stock markets, currency and gold during the period 1995 to 2018 has been analyzed.

Based on the research findings, the amount of risk aversion for the sample size shows that the average risk aversion index of investors in the stock market is higher than the other two markets and this index is the lowest in the gold market. Also, the value-at-risk index of return has a one-way causality and a significant relationship with the degree of risk aversion of investors in all three asset markets.

The results of this study of risk aversion and risk value in these markets can help policymakers to better understand the interactions of these markets, control them and eliminat the destabilizing conditions of these markets. Specifically in the case of the Iranian stock market, it can be said that investors are relatively more risk averse to the both gold and foreign exchange markets in the conditions of economic recession and increasing political instability, in other words, stock market investors have less confidence in  the exchange and gold markets. The reason is the newness of the stock market compared to the global stock markets and also the longer existence of gold and foreign exchange markets than the emerging stock market in Iran. Also since gold assets have an intrinsic value and the dollar market is supported by a large global economy, Therefore to strengthen the support of the Iranian stock market, it seems improving economic infrastructure,  promotion of the conditions of companies in the stock market, increasing government support for competitive condition and prohibition of direct intervention in the stock market are necessary. In addition, due to the complex nature of the stock market and the lack of sufficient public information , the need to inform and increase public awareness for a long-term presence in the stock market seems necessary.

One of the features of a financial market, the stock market in particular, is its affectability from other financial and non-financial markets; on the other hand, investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and other assets can be helpful for investors to create an optimal portfolio. On this basis, regarding the importance of this issue, the present study aimed at investigating the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the returns on the domestic and foreign assets in monthly data (oil, industry, exchange and base metals including total, copper, steel) and returns on the stock price index in Iran during March 2001 to April 2017 using the DCC-FIAPARCH approach. The obtained results indicated a statistically significant and positive DCC coefficient difference between the metals, industrial products, and copper returns with the stocks returns. Consequently, it is not possible to put each of these assets with the stocks in an identical situation (purchase or sale), but instead they should be always placed in opposite situations for the purpose of risk control. However, with regard to other assets, the DCC was not significant; accordingly, the assets can be placed in the investment portfolio together with the stocks although the presence of such assets in the given portfolio did not help to reduce the portfolio risk.

This paper aims to study the role of gold, stock and foreign currency as hedges against inflation in Iran based on monthly data over period 2000-2016 by using a novel approach with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL). To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative inflation shocks  on price of these assets is estimated separately. The results show that all assets (foreign currency, gold and stock) are hedges against inflation in Iranian economy. As inflation rate increases, the prices of these assets also increase, but the magnitude and type of their hedge against inflation vary in different time horizons. The results show that the effects of both positive and negative inflation shocks on gold price are symmetric in the short-run, but in the long run, the effect of positive inflation shocks on gold price are more than negative shocks. The results of the inflationary coverage of foreign currency show that the effects of the positive and negative inflation shocks on it are asymmetric in the short-run and long-run; while these effects are symmetric for stocks in both short- and long-term. Furthermore, stocks is a proper hedge against inflation in the long run and not only it maintains purchasing power, but also it increases value of investors’ assets. Moreover, the inflationary coverage of foreign currency and gold are the same and less than rising inflation, but exchange rate is a hedge in the short-run and gold plays the role of hedge against inflation in the long-run.

Investors usually are challenged in an environment marked by uncertainty caused by the financial markets operation. Therefore, it is essential that information to investors in the field of financial risk and return and correlation is to take advantage of the opportunities available. The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between the returns on financial assets pairs (gold coins, dollar, and stock) using the new approach of Hilbert - Huang transform in the period from 25/03 / 2001- 21/12/2015. The results of this study show that correlation is not constant over time. During the 25/03/2001-22/9/2013 period between two sets of coins and dollar, coin is the leading factor; between coins and stock, again the coin is the leading factor; however, between the dollar and stocks, the dollar has been the leading factor. And in the period 23/09/2013 -21/12/2015 between two sets of coins and dollar, dollar was a leader; between the coins and stocks, the leading factor was the stock; and between the dollar and stocks, the dollar has been the leading factor.

During recent decades, Iran's economy  experienced numerous fluctuations,  some of them, such as reliance on oil revenues, high inflation and high unemployment rate, are now chronic . The other economic problems, among others, are sizable share of oil-related exports, bank-based financial system and lack of  market depth. These features leave the economy highly prone to external shocks.  An important area, affected by the sanctions and affecting various economic sectors, is the foreign exchange market. . This study examines the effects of recent sanctions on foreign exchange market as well as the consequences of foreign exchange fluctuations, due to sanctions, on economic sectors and economic variables, in order to identify SWTOs in exchange market and the related markets. The research proposes approaches for reaching a esilient economy.

Iranian economy as a state – petroleum economy with inflation and budget deficit challenges pass big and small Business Cycles in the last three decades. Obviously recognition of significant causes of these Business Cycles can to help to programmers and policy makers for the more accurate and efficient offers. This research by using of Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model recognizes The Effective Causes on Business Cycles of Iran. The conclusion shows between 1990 & 2012 budget deficit growth and real exchange rate growth were the most important causes of Business Cycles of Iran. According to this conclusion macroeconomic policy makers should attention to these causes for gaining more stability.

In recent decades, currency swap has been introduced as one of the efficient tools to cover the risk of assets in currency in Islamic financial markets. Using the method of legal-deductive study, the present paper investigates the legitimacy of this financial tool. The research findings indicate that the main legal problem of this tool is the interest which parties pay mutually. This paper introduces two different approaches for solving this problem. The first approach necessitates interpreting and justifying this contract as a usury-free contract like the "contract of promise". The second approach requires drawing a new contract as an Islamic swap contract by using such contracts as contract of promise, tawarruq contract* and the method of currency options contract. The review of proposed methods for issuing Islamic swap indicates that the method of contract of promise in superior to tawarruq contract.

Concentrating on the international conditions of Iran economy in recent years, exhibits extensive economic sanctions as well as variations in crude oil prices. It shows the effect of unanticipated factors under above condition on official foreign reserves. In order to achieve macroeconomic targets, we study the feasibility of optimal policy for foreign reserves combinations.Using Mean-Variance approach, we try to simulate official foreign reserves in Iranian economy within the period of 1999-2007.The results show that the average share of the U.S Dollar and Pound were more than its optimum share, while the average shares of the Euro and Yen were less than their optimum shares.