اقتصاد ایران

Land is one of the most critical inputs in various sectors, including housing, agriculture, industry, and the start of any economic activity, along with capital and labor. Having land for many families to meet the necessary needs of residents and enterprises is considered a production input, and its capital aspect is weak (Ghanbari et al., 2017). In developing economies, including Iran’s economy, investment in fixed assets such as land and housing has a high return, which, despite high inflation, can maintain the purchasing power of families in proportion to inflation as an inflationary shield (Najafi,2013). The exchange rate is among the most important factors influencing Iran’s economy. Considering the dependence of Iran’s economy on the exchange rate, its fluctuations play a fundamental role in economic performance and the price of goods and services. Land is also a durable commodity; its price is determined in the supply and demand market and is not excluded from the effects of the exchange rate. (Tavakoli & Sayah,2010). In the past years, the price of this input has increased due to the increase in the general level of prices and the increase in capital demand for land. Additionally, from this point of view, it has played a significant role in increasing the prices of goods and is considered one of the factors of inflationary stagnation in the economy. Land has the largest share in the price of housing; as a necessary commodity without substitute, it has also caused a sharp increase in the price of housing. Many factors have been involved in increasing the general level of prices and land prices. Due to the dependence of Iran’s economy on the exchange rate, one of the most important factors of inflation is the changes in the exchange rate, which has a strong effect on the increase in the price of goods and services and, consequently, land (Tavakoli & Sayah,2010). The price of land as an input reflects the current cost of financing (sometimes considered equal to the price of capital supply) and expectations about the cost of financing in the future. From the perspective of cost pressures and rising input prices, it can cause or exacerbate inflation.  Various studies have been conducted on the exchange rate and how it affects the economy, as well as land prices and the factors affecting them. However, no one has examined the relationship between exchange rates and land, and how they affect each other is still in question. Since land, in the view of some economists, is considered separately as an important input in the production function, along with capital and labor, it is important to understand the factors affecting it. Since the Iranian economy is heavily affected by the exchange rate, land, in addition to being a production input, is considered a capital and low-risk commodity. Therefore, its level of impact is important. The main goal of the research is to answer the question of how and to what extent the exchange rate affects the price of urban land.

This research aims to investigate how the exchange rate affects the price of urban land as a commodity in the economy. It was conducted using an autoregressive model with distributional lags. It examined the effect of the exchange rate on the urban land price index from 1992 to 2011 in both short-term and long-term terms and achieved valuable results that will be useful to consider in the field of planning and policymaking. This model is beneficial for solving time series problems and can be used both in stationary and once-differentiated conditions. This flexibility of the ARDL model provides a significant advantage in econometric analysis. The ARDL model is designed using a combination of past lags of the dependent variable and explanatory (independent) variables. Among the advantages of the autoregressive model with distributed lags are the lack of the need for the order of cointegration of the variables at the level or first-order difference, the possibility of analyzing short-term and long-term relationships simultaneously, the ability to apply to small samples, and high flexibility in economic issues. Given that the number of observations is (30 years) and the minimum data required for this model is available, this method has been evaluated as appropriate for estimating the relationship between exchange rate growth and urban land price index growth.

The results of the model indicate that the growth of the land price index was a function of the dependent variable itself with a time lag of one and two years. According to the estimate, if the exchange rate increases by one percent, the land price index will grow by 0.70 percent in the same period. The results also indicate that in the long run, the impact of the growth of the urban land price index on the growth of the exchange rate has not been significant. Despite this impact, government intervention is necessary to prevent market failure and control the market, and policies and strategies have been proposed to control and manage the exchange rate and urban land price by implementing which the exchange rate can be controlled and the land market stabilized.

As mentioned in this study, the effect of exchange rate growth on the growth of the urban land price index in the period 1992 to 2021 was evaluated using the autoregressive model method with a wide lag. Land is an essential commodity for every individual as an input for building a place to live. In addition, it is also considered a major and non-renewable resource in sustainable urban development. From these perspectives, it is essential to manage supply and control its price and fair distribution. Given the dependence of the Iranian economy on the exchange rate, its fluctuations play a fundamental role in economic performance and the prices of goods and services. Given that land is also a commodity, its price is determined in the market by supply and demand; it is not exempt from the effects of the exchange rate. This means that in the short term, a one percent increase in the exchange rate leads to a 0.7 percent increase in the urban land price index. The results also indicate that in the long term, the impact of the growth of the urban land price index on the growth of the exchange rate has not been significant.

Policymakers often create significant economic uncertainty when they fail to reach consensus on addressing a problem or when they repeatedly change economic policies. This process, known as economic policy uncertainty (EPU), can affect various sectors, including the stock market and its returns. Conversely, given that policymakers seek the results of their actions in the stock market and may be influenced by political pressures and vested interests, stock returns can also induce EPU. Therefore, investigating the relationship between EPU and stock market returns can reveal important policy implications. Accordingly, this study uses continuous wavelet transform and time-series data from 1990-2023 to analyze the relationship between EPU and stock market returns in Iran within the time-frequency domain. The results indicate that, in the short-run, medium-run, and long-run, stock market returns have historically caused EPU. However, this effect has ceased after the 2010s. Since the 2010s, an increase (decrease) in the effect of EPU has led to a decrease (increase) in stock returns.

One of the key rights of Islamic governance is the sustainable use of government assets. The productivity of government assets, in addition to aiding government financing alongside taxes, is considered a requirement of urban governance due to its favorable economic impacts. Among the state's assets, land holds a special place in Iran. This research examines the economic impact of providing government land for rent using an analytical and descriptive method, alongside reviewing global experiences, jurisprudence, historical texts, and available statistics. The findings reveal that the leasing model, unlike the sale, provides stable, long-term financing for the government. Additionally, offering government land in long-term leases for residential, commercial, administrative, agricultural, horticultural, and other uses can lead to long-term economic growth without inflation. Reducing or eliminating the cost of land through government land leasing lowers the initial and fixed costs of producing and consuming goods and services. Consequently, the growth of land prices and the prices of goods and services related to land will be controlled to some extent. Ultimately, the rental supply of government land creates opportunities for balanced production and consumption for the public.

The relationship between population growth and economic growth is among the important topics in population economics studies. Using the analytical and econometric methods, this article seeks to examine the relationship between these two variables in the Islamic economic approach applied to the Iranian economy. Based on the research findings, increasing the Muslim population is inherently desirable in Islam, and reducing the population rate in Islamic societies is considered reprehensible. Economic growth is also desirable from the perspective of Islam and can lead to happiness and good life. Within this framework, population growth provides the conditions for economic growth. An analysis of Iranian economic data from 1989 to 2014 using the linear least squares (OLS) method shows that population growth has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Also, variables such as net exports, private consumption, and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. In the early stages, the increase in population growth was directly associated with economic growth, but in the short term, economic growth decreased due to the baby boom of the 1960s and the incomplete entry of the population into the cycle of economic activity. However, in the long term, the human resources and capacities have had a positive effect providing the basis for the country's economic growth.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of using artificial intelligence in reforming the macroeconomic structure of Iran. As an emerging technology, AI can transform the economy by improving production processes, reducing costs, and increasing productivity. This research analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment and investment. The research method is based on quantitative analysis and econometrics, and the data are collected from domestic and international sources, including the Central Bank of Iran and the World Bank. After the data normality test, suitable econometric models were selected and analyzes were performed in EViews7 software. The findings show that artificial intelligence has a positive and significant effect on Iran's economy. Specifically, the coefficient of impact of artificial intelligence on GDP is 0.85 and on unemployment rate -0.60, which indicates an increase in production and a decrease in unemployment, respectively. Also, its effect on inflation is -0.35 and indicates a decrease in inflation. The positive effect of 0.40 on investment indicates the growth of investments. These results confirm that artificial intelligence plays an effective role in improving Iran's economic indicators. In other words, artificial intelligence has significant effects on Iran's macroeconomic indicators. The analysis indicates that the use of artificial intelligence can increase the GDP, so that its coefficient of influence on the GDP is positive and significant. Also, the effect of artificial intelligence on the unemployment rate has also been significant and has led to a decrease in this rate, which indicates the positive role of this technology in creating new jobs and improving the labor market situation. Regarding the inflation rate, the results show that the use of artificial intelligence can lead to a decrease in inflation, which can be justified due to increased productivity and reduced production costs. Finally, the effect of artificial intelligence on investment was also investigated and it was found that this technology can stimulate new investments and increase the amount of investment in the country's economy. The research results confirm that artificial intelligence can be effective in correcting macroeconomic indicators and help Iran's economic growth.

Taxation is one of the primary fiscal policy tools available to the government, playing a crucial role in economic growth, price stability, and promoting social equity. The value-added tax (VAT) law serves as an effective alternative to many indirect taxes and fees that cause significant distortions across economic sectors. VAT, by addressing shortcomings in the tax system, can provide a reliable income source for the government. Since the introduction of a pilot VAT law in 2008 and the enactment of a permanent law in 2021, Iran’s tax system has faced various legal and operational challenges. This study simulates the effects of VAT rate increase shocks across three scenarios (12%, 15%, and 20%) on Iran’s economic sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the ORANI-G-Iran model and a 2016 input-output table. The results indicate that higher VAT rates lead to increased inflation and investment while reducing GDP and consumption.

Currency volatility is very important because of its adverse effects on economic performance and especially economic stability. In this regard, the present study investigates the behavior of the most important macroeconomic variables on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran's economy based on seasonal data of 1376-1401 with the help of the Auto-explanatory Vector Model Augmented with Time-varying Parameters (TVP-FAVAR). The results of the study of shock-reaction functions of the variables indicate that many exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by the behavior of some of the most important fundamental variables of the economy, including the budget deficit, inflation rate, liquidity and economic policy uncertainty. The more accurate modeling of exchange rate fluctuations and following that, predicting the range of exchange rate fluctuations in future periods requires that the relevant policy makers, while closely monitoring the behavior of the fundamental variables of the economy, adopt stability-creating policies to prevent extensive and unpredictable changes in the behavior of such variables

In the current climate, the imposition of sanctions as a tool for foreign policy is not only increasing in terms of frequency of incidence, but also in terms of scope, complexity and effects. The unpredictability regarding the application of sanctions, uncertainty around interpretation and the evolving nature of sanctions imposed on Iran, have created an atmosphere of uncertainty for businesses, and thus, compounded the complexity of the effects of sanctions. Economic sanctions imposed on Iran have covered various aspects of its economy and, the extent of their effects depends on how these sanctions are applied. The most effective economic sanctions are those that target channels of interaction with the international economy. The bodies responsible for the imposition of economic sanctions first identify the most vital arteries in the economic body of a country, and then, target those areas so as to that compel the targeted country to accept their requests. In this article, the effects of economic sanctions against Iran have been estimated using the macro-econometric model via providing the sanctions index in 15 macroeconomic relationships using statistics of 2002(2)-2023(1) and the 2SLS estimator. The results show that economic sanctions have had a negative effect on almost all sectors, however, the extent of the impact experienced strongly depends on the extent of the relationship of the sector in question with other countries. The findings show that: the elasticity of private sector investment and consumption compared with economic sanctions is -89.30 and -18.69 percent, respectively; The elasticity of oil revenues compared with economic sanctions is -30.72%; The elasticity of industrial goods export supply and intermediate goods export supply relative to economic sanctions is -59.21 and -11.82 percent, respectively; The elasticity of competitiveness of industrial goods, demand for money and the level of domestic prices compared with economic sanctions are -81.24, -13.59 and 20.73%, respectively.

According to the important role of the banking industry in the economic development on one hand, and the importance of bank profitability as a necessity for the banks success on the other hand, this study tries to examine of the determinants of bank profitability in Iran provinces, emphasizing the transitional effect of economic growth during 1385-1397 applying GMM method. The results show that monetary policy and economic growth have positive effects, and inflation and nonperforming of loans have negative effects on the banks' profitability. In addition, the effect of the economic growth on the relationship between monetary policy and bank the profitability is positive. However, the effect of the granted loans is small and ignorable. Accordingly, it is suggested that policymakers increase the economic growth and reduce the inflation, and banks, instead of increasing their loans, check the credit status of the borrowers more closely and thus reduce credit risk.

Economic development is one of the main goals of all countries, and most scientists believe that development is only accessible if there is equality. For this reason, despite the differences and contradictions in schools and societies, the issue of inequality and especially economic inequality has been always a vital concern of economists and policymakers all over the world. Meanwhile, since justice is one of the fundamental goals of Islam, Islamic economists have a more scrutinizing and much clear vision of equality. Apart from the importance of economic equality in Islam, it has a cucial role in social security systems and equality concepts as well. Takaful insurance, is a widely used Islamic model in insurance risk coverage which has fundamental differences with conventional insurance mechanisms. Takaful is cooperative, not profit oriented, and fully allined and complied with Islamic rules and regulations. This study is aiming at  investigating the effect of various layers of social security system on Islamic-economic equality in the Iranian provinces during 2008-2021. GMM prediction model is applied for predicting the effect of Takaful on inequality and directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful insurance.

According to previous theoretical and experimental literature, economic inequality can be affected by inequality in previous years. Therefore, in this study a dynamic econometric method is used to include the lagged dependant variable as one of the explanatory variables. In general, if a variable depends on vaiables of previous periods, among other independent ones, it is better to use a dynamic panel data model. Generalized method of moments is one of the common and widely used dynamic approaches. The reason for the popularity of this method is that it is very flexible and requires only some weak assumptions. Therefore, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) greatly solves the problems of static panel data methods related to autocorrelation, variance heterogeneity, and skewness. The reason for using this method is that, firstly, there is a possibility that the current dependent variable is affected by the lagged variables, and secondly, since one of the ways to control the endogeneity of variables is to use instrumental variable and due to the fact that it is very difficult to find such an instrument, it is possible to use lagged variables as appropriate instruments applying GMM estimator.

The results of this research indicate that the inequality of the previous period has a positive and significant relationship with current economic inequality in all three models. This means that high inequality in the previous period causes high inequality in the current period. Moreover, consistent with some studies, GDP has a positive and significant relationship with economic inequality. It means that an increase in GDP is associated with increased inequality. This result indicates that in Iran, there is no antipoverty growth. Inflation rate has also a negative relationship with inequality in all models, and this relationship is significant in two models. Following some previous studies, this result can be interpreted as the negative relationship can be caused by the fact that the inflation of luxury goods is higher than the inflation of essential goods and therefore, increased inflation is more detrimental to the rich. In addition, all three layers of social assistance, basic social insurance, and supplementary social insurance significantly reduce inequality. Meanwhile, basic social insurance has the greatest effect, and social assistance has the least effect on reducing inequality. In addition, based on the results, it can be stated that by directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful insurance, which is an Islamic insurance and a type of basic social insurance, it is possible to reduce Islamic-Economic inequality in 2023 and 2024. The amounts of the decreases are predicted to be a minimum of 0.31 and 0.25 (Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari) and a maximum of 5.95 and 5.91 (Markazi).

According to the results, investing in all three layers of social security can lead to a reduction in inequality. Therefore, it is suggested not to ignore any layer in policymaking. Due to the greater impact of basic insurance on equality, it is thought to consider it as the basic layer of social security and focus on this layer to reduce inequality more. Managers and policymakers can also focus on Takaful as one of the basic types of insurance and help to provide Islamic-Economic equality by directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful. Moreover, it is suggested that the governmental plans should be based on combining economic growth with improved welfare and income distribution which is one of the main goals of the Islamic economy. It is also suggested that the religious and cultural officials should create the necessary explanation and enlightenment related to Takaful and social responsibility of people. The government responsiblity in creating a foundation and guiding people to fulfill their social responsibility by strengthening and developing Zakat headquarters and communicating with social security organization should not be underestimated.

The informal economy plays a significant role in economies, influencing their overall performance and stability. Reducing the negative effects of the informal economy requires a balanced combination of policies. Monetary policy, along with its transmission channels, directly and indirectly, have positive or negative consequences on the activities of both formal and informal economies. In this study, it is investigated the effect of various monetary policy tools, including interest rates, bank credit ratio, and exchange rate changes, on the size of the informal economy in Iran. An asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze the relationship between these variables during the period of 2017-2018. The results indicate the negative effect of the monetary policy credit channel on the informal economy. Additionally, the exchange rate channel shows a positive effect, while the interest rate channel has a negative effect on the informal economy, and these coefficients are asymmetric. The coefficients of inflation rate and the ratio of liquidity to GDP also show a positive effect. Therefore, policymakers can utilize monetary policies to control the informal economy by implementing measures such as increasing the granting of bank credits, controlling inflation, and managing the exchange rate.

Monetary policies affect macroeconomic variables and financial indexes through changes in importance parameters of macroeconomic. Therefore, it is necessary to test the effects of changes in these parameters in a simulation environment. In present paper, the effect of monetary policies on Iran’s financial market has been simulated with a system dynamics model and using data from 2011 to 2021 (and simulated until 2031). The results showed that some monetary policy variables, such as the increase in interest rate, have an effect on the distribution of financial assets between the bank, the stock market, and non-productive assets, and reduce the capital market size, and others, such as increasing in bank credit, foreign asset in central bank and government debts will increase all financial markets. The increase in the bank interest rate, despite the increase in deposits in the bank, will reduce investment in the stock market and increase the trend towards non-productive assets such as dollars and gold. Also, government financing through borrowing from the central bank increases propensity to non-productive assets and increases the inflationary cycle.

Today, smuggling of goods is one of the basic economic problems in all countries of the world, especially in developing countries. In the meantime, due to its special geographical location and due to the fact that it has always been the bridge of trade between different countries, Iran has always seen an increasing growth of smuggling. Based on this, many policymakers are always looking for solutions to deal with smuggling. On the other hand, income is one of the main causes of development, and its low level can lead to many problems, such as increasing crime, deterioration of health, and so on. One of the economic crimes that low income can increase is smuggling. Because if people cannot earn enough income through legal ways, they are more likely to turn to illegal ways such as smuggling. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of income, among other factors, on smuggling of goods in Iran during the period of 1375-1401 by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods. The results indicate that income has a negative and significant relationship with smuggling. In addition, trade openness and added value of industrial sector also have a negative and significant relationship with smuggling. In contrast, the variables of difference between official and unofficial exchange rates, taxes, government size, tourism, mortality and communication have a positive and significant relationship with goods smuggling in Iran.

Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics, which has an undeniable effect on economic stability in the countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify factors affecting inflation. In the meantime, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues such as Iran. Accordingly, considering the importance of inflation and the need to identify the causes and factors affecting it on the one hand, and the prominent role of supply side factors on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate considering the threshold effect of economic growth, and to identify the other supply-side factors affecting inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics during 1375-1401, applying the threshold regression of time series. According to the results, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate when the economic growth is lower than 4.303%. This effect is also positive and significant in the economic growth of above the mentioned threshold, but its amount is less. In addition, unemployment and technology have negative and significant effects on inflation rate, which respectively confirm Phillips theory and Solow growth theory. However, population size has a positive and significant effect on inflation rate.

Tax is the main and most stable financial source of the government and plays an important role in increasing the government's income. The level of realization of tax revenues depends on the economic structure of the country. In recent years, with the outrages rise of prices and the formation of high inflation in the country, people are reluctant to pay taxes and as a result motivation of rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues has enhanced. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation on rent-seeking from tax revenues in Iran's economy. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model has been purposed which considered the realities of Iran's economy and involved sectors of household, business, oil, government and central bank during period of 1991-2020. After extracting the equations of economic agents, the model has been processed in Dynare software. The simulated results indicate that the increase in prices has led to an increase in rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues which is consistent with the theoretical foundations of the economy and the reality observed in the country. Since the increase in rent-seeking from tax revenues leads to the reduction of public resources of the government budget, budget deficit, and a reduction in non-oil production and employment in the country, therefore, it is suggested that the country's economic policies should be implemented in order to control prices and limit the space for rent-seeking.

The advancements in the field of information and communication technology have paved the way for economic and societal progress and development. The penetration of technology into various aspects of life and society has led to the emergence of the concept and method of the digital economy, which has increased economic productivity. In this research, the Digital Economy Infrastructure Index (DEII) has been used to examine the position and performance of the digital economy. The performance of this index in the provinces of Iran is composed of components such as the number of fixed telephone users, the number of mobile phone users, the number of internet users, and internet bandwidth, considered for the period from 2013 to 2023. This research has been conducted using an analytical-descriptive method, and the ranking of the Digital Economy Infrastructure Index (DEII) in the provinces of Iran has been completed using the method of principal component and cluster analysis. According to the research findings, the provinces of Tehran, Isfahan, and Razavi Khorasan ranked first to third, respectively , while the provinces of North Khorasan, Ilam, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad ranked twenty eighth to thirtieth, respectively. Additionally, the performance of the provinces in the field of the digital economy was divided and categorized into three clusters: very suitable, suitable , and very unsuitable. Based on the examination of the digital economy performance of the provinces and the categorization of the provinces, the path for digital economy policy making and planning in the country can be facilitated.