امنیت انرژی

In recent years, economic development and public welfare are not possible without reliable and sustainable energy sources. Therefore, providing energy security is one of the basic priorities of every society and government. On the other hand, energy security is closely related to human life and productive activities and is strongly related to the increase in the number of extreme natural events in the past decades. Natural disasters can have different effects on energy consumption depending on the type of disaster and the desired energy source. Emergency food products can be useful for disaster situations, and carbon absorption is one of the solutions that can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The search for better energy performance of buildings and the using alternative sources of energy along with the rationalization of energy consumption can be directly related to reducing emission levels in the atmosphere and alleviating detrimental impacts on the environment. However, the transition to renewable energy sources requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security and prevent negative environmental effects, natural disasters also have significant implications for energy security, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can affect the availability and reliability of energy resources, especially hydropower. Therefore, it is crucially important to consider the potential effects of climate change on energy systems and to develop adaptation strategies for ensuring energy security. Therefore, dealing with climate change and energy security are two critical challenges of any society today. Transitioning to renewable energy sources can reduce climate change, but requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security. In addition, it is vital to consider the potential impacts of climate change on energy systems and develop adaptation strategies to ensure energy security. Therefore, dealing with and managing severe natural disasters is necessary to ensure and manage energy security. Therefore, considering the importance of energy security on the one hand and limited research on the other to depict the impact of extreme natural events on energy security is of paramount importance. Therefore, considering the increasing frequency of natural disasters and energy security, how natural disasters affect energy security needs to be debated which has rarely been addressed yet. So, the aim of this research is to fill this theoretical gap so that the impact of severe natural hazards on energy security from a theoretical point of view to be investigated and  solutions for diminishing the impact of natural disasters on energy security proposed.

In this research, due to the fact that the degree of significance of all research variables was of the first order and with the difference of the first order of significance, to estimate the research model, it is possible to use co-accumulation methods to avoid creating false regression and misleading results. In econometric literature, various methods are introduced to check the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Therefore, this research uses Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration method to estimate the research model. The fully modified least squares method by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to examine long-run relationships and estimate a co-integrated relationship that has a combination of I(1) was introduced and developed. This method uses a quasi-parametric correction to eliminate problems caused by long-term correlation between co-accumulation equations and changes in random variables. Characteristics of this estimator; They are highly consistent and asymptotically distributed normally without skew and provide better results in small samples. It also provides modified standard deviation that allows statistical inferences to be made. In fact, the fully modified least squares method applies two corrections of distortion and endogeneity to the ordinary least squares method. On the other hand, the FMOLS method is not affected by the length of the interval and is asymptotically unbiased and has a fully efficient combination of asymptotes when all variables are endogenous. In fact, by means of this method, an optimal estimate of the cointegration vector can be estimated.

In this study, for the first time, the effect of severe natural disasters on the risk of energy security in Iran during the period (1980-2018) have been examined. To estimate the model, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) method was used. According to the variable results, severe natural disasters have a negative and significant effect on energy security in Iran, which is in agreement with the results of the research by Qiu et al. (2023), Lee et al. (2021), Rakshit (2021), Wei et al. 2022). Open degree index without trade has a negative and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which confirms the results of Qiu et al. (2023), Wei et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) studies. The industrialization index has a positive and significant effect on energy security in Iran, and the results of this section agree with the results of Qiu et al. (2023) research. The growth rate of urbanization also has a positive and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which rejects the results of Qiu et al. (2023) study. Technological innovation has a positive and significant effect on energy security. Financial development had no significant effect on energy security. The GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on energy security. The results of this section are contrary to the research results of Qiu et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) and are consistent with the research results of Wei et al. (2023).

Natural disasters are an inevitable part of life that threaten different aspects of human life. Natural disasters may create some long-term social, economic and environmental trends in the society, whose effects have economic consequences for the country for decades. The position of natural disasters and its effect on other variables in a disaster-prone country like Iran should be given special attention. Natural disasters should be a gateway to a scientific, strategic and accurate look at these events and their social, political and economic consequences. Increased investment in infrastructure and mechanisms related to crisis prevention and management, and serious attention should be paid to basic indicators such as trust and political legitimacy to facilitate the functioning of the government in crisis conditions. The results of this study show that policy makers should pay enough attention to natural environment, especially natural disasters in planning agenda to improve energy security so that appropriate policy interventions can help deminish the impact of extreme natural events on energy security.

Due to the undeniable importance of energy in development countries, energy security is an important object in the economic and political policies of countries. In fact, the importance of the issue of energy security in today's world has caused a wide interaction between energy and politics, and many friendships, competitions and political developments in the world are influenced by energy and its surrounding issues. This paper examines the theoretical aspects of the problem of energy security which is becoming a topical geopolitical issue today. In other word, interpreting the concept of energy security and a geopolitical factor of energy security have become important. The results indicate that in order to achieve sustainable energy security, countries should pay special attention to the geopolitical dimension to evaluate energy security.

Energy is a vigorous input for any economy and a determining factor in economic growth and development. The production, supply, distribution, consumption management, and conservation of energy resources are key areas, which are influenced by governance. This article intends to evaluate approved energy policies and propose improvements to energy governance in Iran. Methodologically, this research can be considered descriptive-analytical, utilizing document analysis and content analysis to interpret and analyze data. Data were gathered from various sources, including legitimate documents (general policies, permanent laws, development program laws, and budget laws) spanning from the year 1368 to 1400, as well as from published research, articles, interviews, and expert opinions. Analysis of longitudinal and diagonal relationships of approved energy policies revealed alignment between upstream documents such as general policies, five-year development plans, and annual budget laws, but shortcomings in governance have led to insufficient comprehensiveness, continuity, coherence, and convergence. This lack of governance threatens Iran's long-term energy security. Therefore, six policy packages are proposed to reform the current governance system in the country's energy industry.

The high consumption and the increasing need of the European Union to import energy, especially from Russia, as the largest owner of gas resources in the world, has caused Moscow to use energy resources as a strategic lever to rebuild its empire and advance the Kremlin's policies towards Brussels. This has caused the security of sources and energy supply routes to be of great importance for Europe. In this regard, Europe has tried to reduce its vulnerability in this issue by diversifying these sources and routes, which has caused Europe to pay special attention to the South Caucasus region. Thus, the present study aims to analyze Europe's concerns about Russia's instrumental use of energy based on the components and indicators of energy security. This study will seek to answer the main question, what is Europe's concern about Russia's instrumental use of energy? The research hypothesis is that the European Union's concern about Russia's monopoly on the energy resources of Central Asia and the Caucasus; and on the one hand, the Kremlin's use of energy as a powerful weapon to advance its political and economic goals towards Europe, has a strategic impact on energy security. and the possibility of jeopardizing the national security of the Union; Therefore, in order to get rid of the crippling dependence on Russian energy sources and ensure high energy security, the Brussels authorities are trying to replace and diversify the imported oil and gas baskets </span>isolating Moscow in the energy market, increasing the bargaining power and helping European to act in regional and international equations. The results showed that Pursuing the policy of diversification and reducing Russia's monopoly on the energy market of the region will lead to greater independence of Europe in energy decisions and policies and the promotion of Europe's power and international status while reducing threats to energy security. The method used in this article is descriptive-analytical.

This study examines the impact of energy security on the economic growth of the 10 selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East. The Benchmark model is based on a generalized version of Cobb Douglass’s production function.  Ten measures of energy security have been used for the whole set of panels, using five concepts of energy security including, availability, accessibility, acceptability, cost- effectiveness and development capability. The paper uses estimated generalized least squares (EGLS), and panel– corrected standard error (PCSE) to estimate the model. Based on the results, the lack of difference between "energy production" and "energy consumption", has a positive effect on the economic growth of selected Middle Eastern energy exporting countries . Also, "national energy supply ability", "national energy structure", "renewable energy consumption", "carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy consumption", "political stability" and "oil price" also have a positive effect on the economic growth of these countries. But the amount of "energy intensity" and "the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP" had a negative impact on their economic growth.

By the self-sufficiency in production of essential refining products (e.g. gasoline, gas oil) in Iran, always there has been a constant debate about constructing new refineries or exporting oil in crude form instead. On the one hand, refineries are vital for modern life but on other hand, Refining is a capital-intensive and low profit industry; because of these, it’s always been difficult to make decision in dilemma of constructing new refineries or exporting crude. Due to this, in this research will be tried by presenting a theoretical framework, be assist in making better decision about refinery construction. Our method in this research is Cost-Benefit Analysis(CBA) that in addition of financial view contains the economic point of view and also as the case study, the Siraf refineries complex is chosen. The results indicate that, despite the advantage of Siraf, the full feasibility doesn’t approved; but by regarding the economic view, feasibility increases meaningfully. In financial model, project is feasible in 3 scenarios (out of 5) whereas; in economic model, project is feasible in every 15 scenarios. In economic model besides using shadow prices, the externalities (energy security and environmental effects) has monetarized. By considering the results, in current consumption and production conditions of refined products, stablishing a new refinery leads to more welfare for society; accordingly stablishing Siraf is recommended.

Despite the growing trend of renewable energy production in the world, that will significantly reduce dependence on fossil fuel  in major energy comsuming countries, the IAEA forecasts during the next 30 years all industrialized countries, including menbers of the EU, will be increasingly dependant on the importation of oil and gas. Thereforethe security of energy supply will be a core issue in the EU.  According to forecasts by the European Commission's Energy Office, energy supply within the European Union will decline by about 20% in2030compared to 2005, so that Europe will need to import more than 55%of its energy. Meanwhile, gas is the main source of energy on which there wiil be the most dependence. Gas cooperation between the EU and Russia has existed since 1960. It has passed a variety of challenges successfully and is now an important aspect of the overall EU-Russia relationship. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas to the European Union, so as the revenues from exports to the EU accounts for a large share of Russia's GDP. However, current EU-Russia energy policies do not appear to becooperative, and implementation of previous initiatives has slowed. There are a number of studies on the interdependence between Russia and the European Union in terms of energy, especially gas trade, as well as the analysis of misunderstandings and conflicts in this regard. However, the way in which such interdependence can affect Iran has not been well explored. None of the studies has considered Iran as an important player or even a solution to the "crisis" in EU-Russia energy relations.

In this research, statistical, descriptive, analytical and historical research methods have been used. Information was also collected through library and Internet resources and using news databases based on objective-historical data, and an attempt was made to use the most reliable and up-to-date statistical and descriptive information of domestic, regional and international study centers. The libraries of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Library of the University of Science and Research, the Library of the Center for Middle East Studies and Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Library and domestic and international virtual libraries have been used to obtain library information.

The inability of some members of the European Union to supply energy resources or their monopoly, and high dependence on Russian gas and lack of trust in that country, insufficient gas resources in the Caspian Sea and a 25 percent reduction in energy production within the EU by 2030 (compared to 2000(, the Union's main challenges in ensuring energy security have made the EU adopt a "collective energy security" approach. In line with theories of reciprocity and neo-functionalism, EU-Russia cooperation in the field of energy can reduce the conflict and accelerate cooperation in other areas and establish peace in relations between the two sides. One of the requirements of the EU Collective Security Strategy is the diversification of the EU's energy supply, and in this strategy, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the holder of the world's first energy reserves (total oil and gas), can play a key role in the EU's energy supply. If this is achieved, further stabilization will accelerate Iran's economic development from two perspectives of Iran's security and the region, as well as the provision of economic benefits.

Despite various challenges in reducing the share of Russian gas in the European energy basket, Iran can play a special role in this process due to its abundant gas resources and strategic geographical location. Although the establishment of a special program for strategic cooperation between the EU and Iran regarding energy has always been a serious challenge due to the  US economic sanctions, the strong mutual desire to establish economic relations, especially after the 2013 nuclear deal, confirms that the concept of interdependence can be used for bilateral relations in this regard. This study discusses  how this dependence regarding energy, can ultimately lead to explaining the role of Iran in the future energy supply of Europe. According to the results, Iran will be able to meet 10% of global consumer needs in the long run if it overcomes the political challenges of international relations and lift sanctionsThis will lead to a strategic partnership between the EU andIran that will improve international investment and trade as well as technology transfere. With the rapid,stable improvement in Iran, this can be an advantage.

The increasing dependence of European Union member countries on imported oil and gas has led to concerns about energy supply and security.  At the same time the share of clean energy in Europe’s energy consumption basket is increasing due to environmental issues. About a quarter of all energy consumption in the EU is natural gas, and most EU member states import almost all of their energy resources, especially oil and gas. The increase of European energy imports, including gas from Russia, increases their energy dependence.  We use literature review to study the question of what the most important energy security problems for European countries are and what strategies they can adopt to increase their energy security. The results of this study show that European energy security is compromised by high dependence on oil and gas imports from Russia and inability to source energy from countries like Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions. The most important strategies of countries are to strengthen international institutions such as oil exchanges, use of alternative sources of fossil fuels, diversification of oil and gas import portfolios, joint investment with a basket of oil producers and new pipelines to transport gas. Iran can be a good option for Europe to increase its energy security, given the country’s oil and gas resources and strategic position.

Developing and economizing the unconventional energy resources extraction or, in other words, the Shale Revolution, is a new global capacity that could change the current situation of economic relations and security of energy in the world. This new development has created opportunities for the European Union to strengthen its energy security. This article aims to identify opportunities associated with the Shale Revolution for the EU and evaluate the EU's capacity to exploit these opportunities. The main question is, what opportunities does the Shale Revolution provide for enhancing the energy security of the European Union? This study hypothesizes that exploiting of Shale resources reduces the possibility of securitization of energy within the EU's regional energy security complex. By using the descriptive-analytical approach, it was concluded that the extraction of Shale resources would not be possible at least in the short time within the EU. However, using the benefits of Shale extraction in other states, by diversifying imported energy sources and suppliers, reduces the possibility of securitization of energy within the EU's regional energy security complex, and by stabilizing global energy prices due to the increment of supply, could further strengthen the EU's energy and economic security.

Recently the improvement of new energy technologies, the importance of environmental considerations, the stimulation of economy and creation of new industries and jobs, have led to the fact that industrialized and developing countries, increase the share of these resources in their development plans. Meanwhile, Iran, as a country with the world’s largest total oil and gas resources, should be more aware of trends in the energy sector and the penetration of renewables in the market; to promote its energy security and subsequent national security.Therefore, this research aims to investigate the role of renewables in the global energy market and provide strategies in order to improve the energy security of Iran; relying on principles of futurology, scenario-based planning, and applying the GBN method. The GBN method provides several reasonable, but a challenging framework for a particular method by developing a scenario matrix. So, three different scenarios have been designed; in the first scenario, market forces, and technology, in the second one policies against climate change and in the third one geopolitical competitions and tensions are considered as the main drivers of the energy sector. In the end, according to the national strategic energy document, strategies to improve the energy security of Iran have been proposed in each scenario. Also in order to increase the efficiency of strategies, short-term and long-term perspectives are considered for their implementation.

The authors’ main objective is to examine the nature of the relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI)'s gas export policy and its national security policies as well as its energy security policies. The research hypothesis postulates that success or failure of Iranian gas export policy is related to energy security criteria of the two sides of transaction. Moreover, this association is affected by Iran's national security policy. To gain conceptual framework for analyzing Iranian gas export policy, we try to compare gas export policies of Qatar and Russia, the two key natural gas exporters in the world. The studies of gas export negotiations conducted in the past three decades in addition to challenges toward mega project of Iran’s gas export clearly show lack of sufficient knowledge of Iranian energy policy-makers about energy security concepts. Overlooking the requirements of energy security in the process of gas export policymakig has greatly contributed to the loss of Iran's geo-economic potentials in spite of its considerable natural gas resources. Furthermore, Iran’s gas export policy is under pressure from the US imposed sanctions with "lack of supply security" justification for clients and is rooted in Iranian national security and foreign policy. Russia has also been striving to prevent major natural gas producers like Iran to enter the European market in order to protect its "demand security" across the continent.