انحراف نرخ ارز

Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium value and exploring the factors affecting its changes is crucial for both economic policymakers and economic agents. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate misalignment, the exchange rate regime, has received less attention in experimental studies. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to find out the answer to the question of how real exchange rate misalignment is affected by different exchange rate regimes. In other words, in which of the exchange rate regimes is the exchange rate misalignment less and in which one it is higher? To answer the question, the propensity score matching approach has been used. For this purpose, we have used data from 116 developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in 2019. Other factors such as real exchange rate misalignment in the previous period, inflation, the quality of institutions and financial development have been considered as match variables to net the effect of the exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignment and to separate the effects of other variables. The results showed that the real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level has responded significantly to the type of exchange rate regime adopted by the countries, so that the floating exchange rate regime increases the real exchange rate misalignment in the selected developing countries wherever implemented. It can be argued that factors such as high exchange rate  fluctuations, a more drastic adjustment in the price level, and speculative bubbles or contagion effects in the floating exchange rate regime have led to an increase in these misalignments.

Given the rapid exchange rate rise and deviation from the way of ensuring price stability, as well as its adverse effects on the Iranian economy, the study of the effect of this deviation on the macroeconomic variable of production is more important.In this study, after estimating the deviation of the exchange rate from the exchange rate ensuring price stability, it is attempted to investigate its relation with production in the country using appropriate definitions. The estimation results show that the higher the deviation from the exchange rate than the exchange rate guarantee the stability of prices, the lower the produced variable and the positive impact of capital input variables, intermediate inputs and labor force on positive output. In this regard, one percent increase in short-term exchange rate deviation reduces by 7 tenths of a percent, and in the long run it results in a two hundred percent decline in output.

Real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level can have negative effect on economies worldwide, especially on developing countries. For this reason, it is important to economic policymakers to make attempts in order to control for any misalignment. As detection of the real exchange rate is a first step to control for its misalignments, this study has explored the effects of the main determinants on real exchange rate within a framework of a non-linear model using data of 120 developing countries over the period 2000-2019. The model, which was specified as a panel smooth transition regression, contained a set of explanatory variables such as productivity index, the ratio of investment to GDP, the ratio of government spending to GDP, trade openness, term of trade and net foreign assets. The empirical results indicated that changes in all aforementioned explanatory variables affected significantly the countries` exchange rates. In addition, the results revealed that existence of various types of exchange rate misalignments, like over/under- valuation of exchange rate, in most countries during the period, even those the intensity of misalignments were different in the countries under consideration. Among them, Iran experienced the vast fluctuations in the real exchange rate by 2002, while the less deviation from the equilibrium rate happened in the rest of the period. The reason for such misalignment has been typically based on the overvaluation and undervaluation of the domestic currency.

Innovation diffusion is one of the most significant determinants affecting competitiveness, development and economic growth. Thus, investigating factors that affect this variable is important to stimulate the development process. One of the most prominent factors which affect innovation is the government’s policies. In this article, we attempt to look into the importance of governments' demand-side policies in developing countries on innovation growth over the period 2011-2015. Therefore, monetary, fiscal, commercial and currency policy effects on innovation growth are investigated. The outcomes of the GMM model show that the increase in interest rate, government spending, and tariff rate have a positive and statistically significant effect on innovation, while the impact of the under-valued exchange rate is negative and statistically significant. Hence, demand-side policies should be coordinated with supply-side policies to boost demand for domestic innovation.

Nowadays exchange rate management and eliminating its deviation is one of the main challenges of policy makers in countries such as Iran. Because any abnormal fluctuation and deviation of exchange rate can affect other economic sectors negatively. This article tried to evaluate exchange rate misalignment in Iran in context of inflation regimes in favor of reality of results. To do that by applying Markov Switching technique inflationary regimes which have taken place in Iran’s economy over period of 1990-2017 were extracted and consequently by applying a monetary exchange rate determination approach nominal exchange rate misalignment has been calculated. The results imply that in high inflationary regime the absolute value of misalignment is much greater than low inflationary regime. Meanwhile when in low inflationary regime a positive inflation shock on nominal exchange rate has an increasing but degenerating impact, but in high inflationary regime it leads to a persistent great increase in nominal exchange rate that continues for ever. These findings could have useful policy implications for authorities.

The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between exchange rate misalignments and inflation persistence in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, we first use a non-linear smooth transition regression model to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in the context of a monetary model for the period 1978:2-2012:1. This allows us to compute exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level. In the next next state, in order to examine whether the inflation rate is persistence, we use a threshold autoregressive method to examine the non-linear behavior of inflation rate in Iran. In general, the result shows that there is a direct relationship between the exchange rate misalignment and the inflation persistence. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is costly due to its effect on inflation rate. Moreover, the result indicates that an increase in the level of exchange rate is associated with inflation persistence. This finding has important policy implication for monetary authorites in Iran to implement appopriate exchange rate policy in order to fight inflation persistence in this country.

Over the past years, Iranian foreign exchange system encountered with many changes. This matter has increased the possibility of deviation of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium path. So, realizing the long run equilibrium path deviations and their impact on macroeconomic variables can provide economic policymakers with suitable solutions. In specialists discussions, the correct exchange rate that meets the needs of all sectors of economy, from producers to the consumers in the best conditions, is among the most important and challenging issues. Theoretical frame work According to the extent of government and central bank intervention there are several exchange rate systems are: 1) fixed exchange rate regime, 2) managed floating exchange rate regime and 3) floating exchange regime. According to Nurks, deviation of exchange rate from long-term equilibrium path leads to internal and external balance simultaneously. The Real exchange rate balance can be determined with respect to three perspectives: Purchasing Power Parity method, The Elasticities Approach, and General-Functional Balance method. The nominal exchange rate can be determined according to: 1) PPP model, 2) Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange rate model, 3) Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange rate model, 4) Permanent Equilibrium Exchange rate model, 5) Natural Rate of Exchange. (Siregar& Rahan,2006) This Study attempts to estimate the deviation of nominal exchange rate of Iranian Rial against U.S. dollar from its long-run equilibrium level, using the model of Coudert and Couharde (2007), based on FEER, applying the method of Johansson cointegration (1999). None of the variables is stationary in level (TRGOVER/GDP), CPIIRWHOLS, and CPIIR. We apply the Johansen- Juselius test (1999), for testing the existence of cointegration relationship between time series. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) related to this model is as follow:〖∆Y〗_t=β_1 〖∆Y〗_(t-1)+β_2 〖∆Y〗_(t-2)+⋯+β_(ρ-1) 〖∆Y〗_(t-ρ-1)+∏▒Y_(t-ρ) +φD_t+Uu_tAfter estimation of import and export function and the their effect on exchange rates deviation, the deviations in official exchange rate according to trade balance in public and private sectors is:me (=[(tb) ̌-tbgovertarget-tbprovtarget])/(φ+(a/0.698273))a=φ〖*τ〗_g+ϑ*ε*τ_ρ-ϑ*έ-ϑConclusion & Suggestion: The result shows that the official exchange rate of the Rial against U.S. dollar has been over-valued by about 64.75 percent. Therefore the Iranian rial should be allowed to depreciate by this amount in order to achieve the internal and external equilibrum. The important point that must be considered by policymakers is that iranan country is the importer of many raw and intermediary goods, and with increasing exchange rate, the costs of production of final goods will increase. Therefore this condition leads to inflation, so that by increasing exchange rate, competition capacity of final producs in Iran decreases in comparing with the production of the same goods in other countries.A recommendation for solving this problem is that for importing raw and intermediary goods, subsides should be paid to the producers, so that the competition capacity of domestic producers increase against foreign producers.

Since the exchange rate and its misalignment the most important factors affecting macroeconomic variables of each country, business cycles’ fluctuation state would have also impacts on economic policy implementation. In this paper we showed the exchange rate deviation from equilibrium and studied its effect on business cycles in Iran economy. In order to achieve this aim, we used time series data of 1973- 2008 for measuring long-term and short term relationships between exchange rate deviation and business cycles using auto-regressive extensive Lags model (ARDL). We adopted Hodrick-Presscott (HP) filter for computed Business cycle indicator. After confirming long-term relationship, results imply that the exchange rate deviation is effective on business cycles in Iran economy so that an increased exchange rate deviation can cause more fluctuations in business cycles. The coefficient of error correction (ECM) obtained in this model suggested that41percent of imbalance during each period is modulated in business cycle standing to its long-term process.

The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in IRAN. The study employs simultaneous co-integrated system in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports followed by structural VECM which provides a practical approach to incorporating long run structural relationship. The finding is that resource balance(capital flows), productivity, tariff and nominal exchange rate influence the real exchange rate for imports and exports in the long-run. Besides the difference of the fundamentals mentioned above, fiscal balance and money supply are found to impart short-run effects on the real exchange rate indices. Our results confirm that resource balance is the main source of real exchange rate fluctuation. The coefficients of adjustment are found to be -0.24 and -0.38 respectively for the real exchange rates for imports and exports.