بخش صنعت

Fiscal policy is one of the most effective government means to intervene in the economy. The relationship between government intervention in the economy and macro variables such as economic growth and employment is always one of the discussed issues in economics. The impacts of fiscal policies on production, employment and economic growth have been estimated in numerous empirical studies. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimum size of Iran's government. Furthermore, Considering the role of the manufacturing sector in Iran's economy, the impact of government optimal size on Iran's Manufacturing employment would be estimated.  while using data from the period 1360 to 1398, the optimal control method was used to determine the optimum size of the government, and then by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method( ARDL), the short-term and long-term Impacts of government optimum size on the employment of the manufacturing sector evaluated. The research results showed that the optimal size of the government both in the short term and in the long term had a positive and significant impact on manufacturing sector employment. In addition the results indicated that the Impact of government optimum size on manufacturing sector employment is greater compared to the current size of the government. In other words, if the size of the government is optimum, fiscal policies will have a greater impact on the manufacturing employment.

The growth of the industrial sector and the development of non-oil exports is one of the important factors in providing foreign exchange and increasing national income. The ever-increasing decrease in energy resources, including oil, and the extreme fluctuations in oil export income due to sanctions and political issues, show the special importance of non-oil exports. Financial markets play a key role in financing the growth and development of countries' exports. On the other hand, the financial market system of Iraq is bank-oriented, and the role of the banking system in financing the investment of Iraq is very important. Based on this, in this research, the relationship between bank credits on the export of the industrial sector of Iraq has been investigated. The statistical population in this research is Iraq in terms of the geographical area and in terms of the time area of ​​2007-2021. To estimate the research model, first, the Dickey-Fuller test and then, using the Wu-Hausman endogeneity test, the status of the variables was examined in terms of endogenous and exogenous and finally, according to the results of the tests, it was determined that Vector self-regression model should be used to estimate the research models. According to the results of the long-term estimates of the first and second models of the research, the effect of bank loans on the growth of the industry sector and the export of the industry sector is positive and significant, which shows the confirmation of the research hypotheses. Based on the results of the variance analysis of the research models, the highest impact on the growth of the industry sector and industry exports, respectively; from the variable side, it is physical capital and bank credits. Therefore, in terms of the positive effect of bank credits on the industry sector, on the growth of the industry sector and the export of the industry sector, it is better for the planners to pay special attention to the allocation and management of Iraq's resources.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the influence of monetary policy and total factor productivity on the industrial sector of Iran. By assuming the Iranian economy and the division of the economy into two sectors (namely, the industrial and other economic sectors), and drawing on the seasonal data between the years 2000-2022 and the Central Bank's Input-output table for 2016, the paper adopts a suitable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the regional New Keynesian framework. After assigning values to some parameters obtained in previous studies and deriving an estimation regarding some of them, the variables were simulated and compared with real data to validate the model. The results of the model simulation indicate that the total factor productivity shock of the industry sector's (as well as the total factor productivity shock of other sectors) has increasing effects on total production, production of the industry sector, production of other sectors, consumption and has had a reducing effect on inflation in the economy. Also, the shock of liquidity growth will cause the growth of total production, industrial sector production and other sectors production and will increase consumption, employment and inflation.

In this paper, the relationship between energy consumption and total factor productivity (TFP) in the industrial sector in Iran has been investigated using threshold-type nonlinear relationships. The results of estimating a two-threshold model in a sample including data related to 110 industrial branches during the years 2002-2019 show that the effect of energy consumption on the TFP in the industry sector is state-dependent on the energy consumption state or regime and the energy consumption variable coefficients in all regimes has a negative and significant effect on the TFP. If the energy consumption in Iran's industrial sector exceeds a certain threshold, the negative effect of energy consumption on the TFP will intensify. Also, the effect of energy consumption on the TFP in the industry sector is a state dependent on the TFP state or regime, so in low TFP regimes or states, the effect of energy consumption on the TFP of industries is considerable, but in high TFP regimes, industries with higher TFP have a much lower negative impact of energy consumption on their TFP.

The headquarter of facilitation and elimination of production barriers has been working since 2016  supporting the production sector in Iran in reference to the articles 61 and 62 of the law of eliminating production barriers, - in each province in form of a committee- some responsibilities and authorities of this headquarters are to make the right decisions to finance the production units properly, especially the unfinished projects, cooperating the agent banks, if those units have been approved by the bank and the corresponding committee based on  technical and  financial plans, and economic feasibility studies. The performance evaluation of the corresponding committee in Qazvin Province from 2016 to 2020 depicts that there is a considerable deviation amid the selected applications approved by the committee and the ones financed by the banking system, although  the banking system has refused to pay the financial facilities to 44 percent of the approved applications ( 58 % in terms of the amount of facilities). Hence,  the the committee 's approvals are obligatory for all executive bodies and service companies and banks in compliance with the prevailing laws. This study aims to identify and classify the reasons behind the refusal of the Agent Banks to implement the facilitation and elimination of production barriers committee’s approvals in the industry sector of Qazvin Province. Therefore, the reasons have been identified and ranked by collaborating 15 experts in the industrial production banking and government sectors using TOPSIS method and  the Delphi method. The Results illusterate that the unstable situation of the macroeconomics and the lack of technical, financial, and economic feasibility study for economic plans considered as the most important reasons behind the refusal of Qazvin province banking system to implement the facilitation and elimination of production barriers committee’s approvals.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the role of the structure of industries in their labour demand. The main questions raised in this article are what factors affect the level of employment and employment of labour in Iran's industrial sector and what is the role of structural characteristics in industrial labour demand? This issue was investigated using the econometric model of panel data using the data of 23 two-digit ISIC codes of industrial enterprises for the years 2011 to 2018. The findings of this article showed that the real wage did not have a significant effect on labour demand in Iranian industries. Also, the real interest rate of bank loans to the industrial sector is not significant as an indicator of the cost of capital at the probability level of 5% or 10%. Among the variables representing structural characteristics in industries, the ratio of added value to the number of enterprises, which is an indicator of the average scale of production in the industry per enterprise, has had a positive but small effect on the labour demand of industries. This shows that the industries that have a larger scale do not have a lot of job creation potential and this situation is also true for the ratio of investment per worker. The message of this article is that if the government's goal is to increase employment in the industrial sector, paying attention to small and medium enterprises compared to the policy of increasing the size of enterprises will probably have a greater effect on labour demand and industrial employment growth. Also, just creating economic growth or achieving industrial growth in Iran's economy cannot be expected to increase industrial employment.

In this paper, the effects of energy consumption on the total factor productivity (TFP) have been examined in the industrial sector in Iran. For this purpose, FarPrimont's TFP index and its decomposition into different efficiency components have used. The results of a vector autoregressive model in the form of panel data (PVAR) show that the null hypothesis that energy consumption is not the Grange cause of TFP in the industry sector is rejected. However, the null hypothesis that TFP cannot be the Granger cause of energy consumption is not rejected. Therefore, there is a one-way causality relationship between energy consumption to TFP in Iran's industrial sector. Also, the results of the impulse-response of two energy consumption (EI) and TFP show that a shock of one standard deviation on the energy consumption can increase the TFP of the industry sector for up to two periods. However, after that the negative impact of energy consumption on TFP gradually decreases.

Developing national policies and monitoring water management regulations must be socially desirable, environmentally sustainable, and economically appropriate for both government and industry. In the present study, for the first time, using data from the period 2002 to 2015 and the Generalized Fluid (GMM) method, in addition to examining the Kuznets hypothesis by considering water consumption in the provinces of Iran, the effect of value-added variables of industry and trade (As economic factors), urbanization, government size (as social factors), annual rainfall and temperature (as ecological factors) on industrial water consumption are discussed. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between the amount of trade, value added of the industrial sector and its square with the water consumption of the industrial sector and the Kuznets hypothesis in the industrial sector is not confirmed. The results also show a significant inverse effect of government size and temperature and a positive and significant effect of urbanization and rainfall on water consumption in industry. Therefore, it is necessary for the industries of each province to be equipped with water quota management technologies in accordance with their local natural, social and economic conditions and water conservation should be encouraged.

The industrial sector and its growth is one of the most important performance indicators of the economy at the macro level and achieving a higher growth rate in this sector is one of the important goals of any economic system. Therefore, it is important to study the factors that affect the development of the industrial sector and improve the predictability of this sector. A review of the literature on the development of industry in the economy shows that one of the most important factors affecting its development is the stability of macroeconomics in both economic and political sectors, so that economists today have accepted that economic and political stability is a necessary condition for growth. It is high and continuous in the industry sector of the economy. In this regard, in the present study, the role of political and economic uncertainties on improving the predictability of industrial sector activities in Iran during the period 1991 to 1399 has been investigated. GMM generalized torque method was used to analyze the data. Findings showed that economic and political uncertainties have had negative and significant effects on the development of the industrial sector in Iran. It was also observed that considering political and economic uncertainties can improve the predictability of industrial sector activities. Accordingly, it is concluded that macroeconomic and policy policies in the country should be implemented a way that does not harm economic stability and thus the development of the industrial in the country.

In order to implement a successful monetary policy, monetary authorities must have a correct assessment of the time and extent of the impacts of this policy on economic variables in different conditions. In this article, using the quarterly data of Iran's Central Bank, the contribution of different channels of monetary policy effects on the production of manufacturing sector and the general level of prices in the period of 1994-2008 will be determined. For this purpose, while using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Method (MSVAR), two endogenous and exogenous models are estimated under two regimes of zero and one. Considering Iran's Bank based financing system, it is expected that the credit channel will play an active role in transferring money to the production sector. The results of this research confirmed the effect of monetary policy on production and inflation through the credit channel in both regimes. Also, the results confirm that currency rate and housing channels have been effective in transferring the effect of monetary policies to production and the general level of prices. Considering the high cost of housing rent in Iran, it was found that housing price fluctuations in the regime zero have more inflationary effects than in the regime one. Compared to other channels, the stock price channel has had less impact on the transmission of monetary policies on the level of production and inflation. According to the above results, it is necessary to pay more attention to currency stability, and in addition, pay more attention to the capital market as a suitable tool for directing resources to productive activities.

Industry is not only a conventional path for development,but as one of the results of globalization, it can be an accelerator for development.. In this regard, the industry has caused economic dynamism and vitality in many regions of the world, but it should be kept in mind that accelerated and unplanned development will also have more negative consequences. The financial market of the industry has a significant importance due to the effective role it plays in providing the financial resources and capital needed for investment and development of the industry sector. Therefore, this research was conducted in 2017 using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and by completing 10 questionnaires from the experts of the ministry of industry, mining and trade with the aim of prioritizing the financial components of capital investment in the industrial sector of Lorestan province. The results showed that among the components affecting investment in the industrial sector, attention to the private sector, injecting liquidity into the financial markets, updating financial and credit institutions, creating financial consulting centers, diversification in financial and credit institutions, and super-specialization Financial and credit institutions, respectively, have had the highest degree of importance. The maximum rate of consistency in this research is estimated to be 0.98, which indicates that the level of consistency in judgments is favorable. Therefore, it is suggested to reduce the reliance of investors on the financial resources of banks by providing the financial resources needed by investors through the expansion of financial and stock markets as well as the expansion of active investment companies."

The study of the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate as one of the performance variables of the industrial sector in the theoretical and experimental literature of industrial economics in recent years has been considered by economists in this scope. Therefore, in this paper, by using of nonlinear NARDL approach, the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate of the industrial sector in Iran during the period 1986-2019 have been examined. The empirical results of model estimation indicate that the effect of real wages is asymmetric on the employment of Iran's industrial sector in the short and long term. On the other hand, increasing the real wage of the industrial sector in the long run has a negative impact and decreasing it has a positive and significant effect on the employment rate of this sector and the error correction coefficient also indicates the speed, above the adjustment of short-term error towards equilibrium and long-term value. The value added variable of the industrial sector and economic sanctions also have a positive, negative and significant effect on the employment of the industrial sector in the long run, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that economic policy makers and the industrial sector increase employment through increasing production capacity. Furthermore, controlling the inflation rate can reduce the employment costs of employers and producers in the industrial sector and help increase labor demand and employment.

The industrial sector plays an important role in creating job opportunities. Therefore, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization on the industrial sector is of particular importance. In this regard, this study investigated the effects of reducing importation tariff rates in the industrial sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance. These effects were analyzed based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (25% reduction and 50% reduction of tariff rates) using the GEMPACK software. Trade and specialization cause changes in the structure of production activities and consequently changes in wages and rents of production factors. Thus, the total effect of changing trade policies on the economic welfare index is measured. In addition to the above-noted factors, the volume of initial trade and initial tariff rates can affect the welfare rate. Considering that the tariff rate imposed by Iran is higher than Eurasia, the level of welfare is lower in Iran. Since some activities have various effects in different scenarios, they should be investigated closely to balance welfare. Tariff rate changes are also recommended to be done with high accuracy.

Efficiency is a fundamental concept in economics and is applied in various economic areas. In microeconomics, efficiency has a particular role in consumption and production. The focus of this article is on production efficiency, which itself consists of many kinds. In the economics literature, the important question is that how much the current economic situation is away from the efficient situation and, in other words, what the extent of inefficiency is. Statistical facts and evidence clearly show that the Islamic Republic of Iran's economy suffers from a relatively high level of inefficiency in its various sectors, which can be induced from different factors including big size of the public sector, governmental controls in various economic sectors, deviation of domestic relative prices from the world relative prices, untargeted protective system, old technologies, widespread corruption, and economic rents and lack of competitiveness of domestic outputs. Although economic justice should not be sacrificed for increasing efficiency, it seems that the efficiency itself has been sacrificed during the last four decades of IR Iran's economic life. The economy has not been on the right path to deliver sustainable economic growth. Too much emphasis on the issue of economic justice in the last two decades and ignoring the issue of efficiency have been misleading. It seems that the investigation of efficiency in various economic sectors and identification of its determinants are essential for future financial planning. Various kinds of efficiency cannot be dealt with in one article. For this reason, the purpose of this paper is to estimate resource allocation inefficiency in the Iranian industrial sector.  

For this purpose, we calculate in the first stage the deviations in each sub-sector of the industry. Then in the second stage, we estimate inefficiencies in 23 industries with two-digit ISIC codes over 1374-1393. 

The empirical results derived from the stochastic frontier function show that the industry's efficiency in the production sector is about 60 percent.  Also, due to increasing returns to scale in the Iranian industry, marginal and average production costs are decreasing, and production does not occur in economic areas.  Therefore, firms operating in Iranian industries are not profit maximizers and have not reached an efficient production scale. Our estimated stochastic frontier function also shows that the labor force is an essential part of efficiency deviation in our calculations.  Therefore, it is necessary to promote labor quality through learning-by-doing as well as technical and professional education to increase their share and create incentives.  

This aim can be reached by linking labor force compensation and wages to its productivity. Also, it is necessary to investigate and evaluate the influential factors causing inefficiency in various economic sectors to design economic policies to eliminate or at least reduce these factors.

The sustainability of economic growth, the development of the industrial sector, the service sector, the agricultural sector and the oil sector are at the forefront of economic discussions in developing countries. Because economic growth and development is the product of interactions between different economic sectors. The importance of identifying the large economic sector of each country and determining the share of each sector in the future improvement and performance of each economy and country is one of the most important issues studied by economic planners of each country. So that the effect of decisions and policies of each economic sector can have different economic and social effects on the economy of each country. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to determine the dominant sector among the sectors of agriculture, industry, services and oil in the Iranian economy. Also, the effect of each of these economic sectors on economic growth has been studied and analyzed.

In order to determine the dominant sector in the Iranian economy among the economic sectors (agriculture, industry, services and oil), the Herfindahl method has been used. In order to investigate the effect of each economic sector on economic growth, the distributed intermittent auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method has been used. The data of the present study from 1978 to 2017 were extracted from the site of the Central Bank of Iran and then examined. Considering that the results of this research can be used in the decision-making process of economic planners, it is applied in terms of the purpose of this research.

The results of Herfindal index show that the service sector is the dominant sector in the Iranian economy in terms of size, which means that the service sector has the largest share in terms of size in terms of GDP. Also, after the services sector, in terms of share, the oil sector, industry sector and agricultural sector have formed other sectors of the Iranian economy, respectively. While the results of the estimate show that there is a positive and significant relationship between value added of services, industry, agriculture and oil with economic growth in the short and long term. On the other hand, the findings of the model with auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) show that the effect of oil in the short term and services in the long run on Iran's economic growth was greater than other sectors, so that even in the short and long term, respectively The second place in terms of impact after the services and oil sector is on economic growth. Examination of the error correction factor also shows that in each period, 69% of the imbalance in different economic sectors moves towards the long-term value.

According to the results of the study, the oil sector can be mentioned as an important part of economic growth. While the agricultural sector has played a very weak role on economic growth during the period under review. So that the agricultural sector, both in terms of size and impact, has the lowest amount of the country's economy.

Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the prices of industrial goods. Therefore, determining the factors which affect price changes might come in handy for policymakers. Considering this, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on the price dynamics of selected industrial commodities group in Iran using a Bayesian VAR in the period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. Due to statistical limitations, the selected industrial commodities include aluminum, copper, gold, beams and zinc. The results showed that in long-term the exchange rate had the most impact on the prices of aluminum, gold and beams; copper and zinc have had the most impact on their prices.  The least impact on all goods except beams was through the price of beams and the least impact on the price of beams was from the price of zinc.

The present study intends to use analytical and modeling methods to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the value added of the industrial sector with sub-sectors of industry, mining, construction, water, electricity and gas in the Iranian economy during the period 1370-98 , Pay. Based on this, first, using the generalized torque econometrics (GMM) method, the current situation is identified and then, by examining and pathology of monetary policies, to extract strategies and operational strategies in order to achieve the desired situation using the SWOT method. The present study intends to use analytical and modeling methods to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the value added of the industrial sector with sub-sectors of industry, mining, construction, water, electricity and gas in the Iranian economy during the period 1370-98 , Pay. Based on this, first, using the generalized torque econometrics (GMM) method, the current situation is identified and then, by examining and pathology of monetary policies, to extract strategies and operational strategies in order to achieve the desired situation using the SWOT method

It is important to examine the dynamics of prices for industrial commodities in different periods of time, because fluctuations in commodity prices can be posed as a serious problem in policy making. The fluctuation in the price of industrial goods can also affect the production of various sectors of the economy. Therefore, the relationship between the factors affecting the price of industrial goods is very important. Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the price of industrial commodities. Therefore, identifying as accurately as possible the factors affecting price changes, as well as the exact trend of monetary policies and examining the impact shocks, can help policymakers in many sectors. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on the price dynamics of industrial commodities group in Iran using SVAR method during the time period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. The statistical population of the study is the macroeconomic sector of Iran and the commodities selected in this study include aluminum, copper, gold, rebar, beams and zinc. The results showed that in the long run, the greatest impact on the commodities by credits. Finally, it can be said that increasing the amount of credits paid to the industrial sector in order to provide the necessary capital to expand the production centers of industry and achieve a stable situation in the price of industrial goods are among the policies that can be effective to improve the situation.

In recent years unemployment is a serious challenge for Iran’s economy. According to international studies, growth in service sector can reduce unemployment while agricultural and industrial sectors, due to the mechanization and use of high technology, have greater need for capital. In addition, service sector has basic role on facilitating the growth of other sectors. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of growth in service, industrial and agricultural sectors on unemployment in Iran.

We used time series statistics of mentioned variables for years 1971 up to 2017. In order to study the short-run and long-run relationship of the variables, Co-integration approach and ARDL were used.

The results show that growth of industrial sector increases unemployment in the short-run, and has no significant effect in the long-run. Also, growth of agricultural sector increases unemployment in the long-run, and has a positive and meaningless coefficient in the short-run. However the growth of service sector significantly reduces unemployment both in the long-run and in the short-run.

growth of service sector reduces unemployment in long-run and short-run, while growth of agricultural and industrial sectors had no significant effect on unemployment. Also inflation unlike the short-run Phillips curve, increases unemployment in long-run.

Nowadays, the most important factor affecting production is efficiency, which recovers economic performance, adjusts prices, enhances competitiveness, and improves social welfare and growth sustainability by influencing the production level. This paper aims to estimate the technical efficiency of production in Iranchr('39')s industrial sector by implementing Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SAF); To this end, the Translog Function is used to estimate the production and technical performance of the Iranian industry sector in terms of four-digit International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) codes for the period 2010-2018. Accordingly, the panel data technique is applied to estimate the technical efficiency and production function Frontier Production Functions, the estimator of maximum likelihood variables of using value-added variables, labor force, capital, and energy based on four-digit ISIC codes. The results show that the chemical, petroleum, and coal industries ranked first in efficiency; textile manufacturing, clothing industry, wood, and cork industry, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, and paper and paper products ranked second in efficiency; Coke production and refined petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, and manufacturing other non-metallic mineral products ranked third in efficiency; and lastly, manufacturing basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, ranked as fourth.