بیکاری

In recent years, sukuk has been proposed as an Islamic financing and an alternative to conventional bonds. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the role of sukuk on the selected macro indicators of a case study of selected Islamic countries. The current research method is practical and the time frame of the current research is 2010-2020. In this research, the data of 12 selected Islamic countries (Maldives, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, Pakistan and Iran) were used to estimate the model using the panel data approach in a static state. According to the research results, Sukuk has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. With every one percent increase in the issuance of sukuk bonds, the economic growth increases by 0.043 units; Also, based on the results of the economic growth equation; consumption (0.326 and significant); government expenditures (0.156 and meaningless); human resources (0.287 and significant); capital (0.209 and significant); liquidity (0.065 and insignificant) and openness of the economy (0.178 and significant); They affect economic growth. Sukuk has a negative and significant effect on inflation at the 95% confidence level; With the increase of each unit in the issuance of sukuk bonds, inflation decreases by 0.015 units; Also, based on the results of the inflation equation; exchange rate (0.361 and significant) and the gap between GDP and potential production (0.427 and significant); They affect inflation. Finally, sukuk has no significant effect on unemployment; Also, based on the results of the unemployment equation; Liquidity (0.279); The gap between GDP and potential production (0.265) and inflation (-0.289) have a significant effect on unemployment.

the main purpose of this research is to investigate the symmetrical and asymmetrical effect of unemployment on the load capacity factor (LCF) as a new and comprehensive indicator of environmental sustainability and analysis of the EPC hypothesis in 11 countries of the MENA region during the years 2000-2022 in the form of a STIRPAT model. For this purpose, unit root and panel cointegration tests with cross-sectional dependence and pooled mean group estimator have been used in two symmetric (PMG-ARDL) and asymmetric (PMG-NARDL) models. The estimation results of the symmetrical model show that unemployment had a positive and significant effect on LCF. The estimation results of the asymmetric model also indicate the positive and significant impact of positive unemployment impulses and the negative and significant effect of negative unemployment impulses on LCF; in such a way that the effect size of negative impulses is larger (confirmation of asymmetric impact). Based on Dumitrescu & Hurlin's (2012) panel causality test, the two-way causality relationship between LCF and unemployment variables is confirmed. Based on other results, total population and energy consumption have a negative and significant effect on LCF, and the hypothesis of an N-shaped load capacity curve (LCC) is confirmed.

Numerous studies have been conducted to explore the relationship between unemployment, inflation expectations, exchange rates, and inflation. However, the connection among these factors remains ambiguous, especially in the context of Iran's economy, where the macroeconomic structure and geopolitical situation significantly heighten its importance. In this research, the dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, considering the exchange rate, are analyzed over the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 on a seasonal frequency using a Multivariate Continuous Wavelet Transform (MCWT) model across different frequencies (short-term, medium-term, and long-term). According to the findings of this study, the structure of the Phillips Curve does not align with the realities of Iran's economy. Even during periods of economic recession and expansion, a significant relationship between inflation and unemployment is sometimes absent, even in the short term. However, inflation is primarily influenced by inflation expectations and, to a lesser extent, by the exchange rate in the medium and long term. This indicates that if expectations and exchange rates are not managed, they could lead to persistent long-term inflation. Furthermore, due to price stickiness, even with successful management of exchange rates and expectations, a significant reduction in prices may remain elusive.

This research estimates the simultaneous effects of sanctions, unemployment, inflation, and other factors with potential negative impacts on the economy, focusing on the context of Iran. The analysis applies a vector autoregression (VApR) model to data spanning Iran's economy from 1358 to 1400 (1979–2021). The findings highlight the detrimental influence of United Nations economic sanctions on Iran's economic growth. Increased government spending, higher unemployment rates, and rising inflation exert negative pressures on long-term economic growth. In contrast, increased investment and higher foreign exchange rates (in rials) enhance long-term economic growth but contribute to economic instability. This study addresses a critical need in economic policymaking by simultaneously assessing these factors' impacts.

One of the most important goals of economic policy makers in the country is the proper and fair distribution of income among different classes of people. The problem of lack of proper distribution of income and increase of income inequality is often considered from the point of view of social justice and poverty, and this has led to recommend short-term solutions to solve this problem. This article presents the optimal model of Iran's international energy trade with emphasis on international crises, economic growth, unemployment and income distribution using SVAR structural vector autoregression model for the years 1364-1399 in Iran's statistical society and in oil energy. Based on the estimation results of the SVAR model; An impulse coming from the area of energy prices will increase the inequality of income distribution by 0.3%, increase unemployment by 15% and decrease production by 12% in the country, as well as an impulse coming from the years of embargo in the country's oil exports will cause respectively 0.5% increase in income distribution inequality, 7% unemployment and 0.6% decrease. Establishing a suitable theoretical relationship between the discussed variables in the country, rather than being affected by the government's temporary economic policies, undergoes fundamental changes in the structure and political and economic conditions, but according to the model results, the economy has not been harmed much by the financial crisis. , or usually with a gap of six months to one year, has affected the country's economy.

In the labor market literature, Shimer's criticism of the standard search and matching models indicates a low elasticity of the labor market as to the technology shock. As a result, the standard search and matching model is not able to explain the fluctuations observed in the main variables of the labor market, such as unemployment and job vacancies. In other words, in the standard model of search and matching with Nash bargaining, the fraction of fundamental surplus is large. Various explanations have been proposed to increase the elasticity of labor market compression to changes in productivity, and they all entail reducing the fundamental surplus fraction. By integrating the current and expected monetary policy induced debt overhang friction in the production and financial intermediatory sectors with a standard search and matching model this study aims at analyzing and pursuing how inclusion of this friction, through reducing the fundamental surplus and raising elasticity of labor market compression, could explain the excessive volatility in unemployment and job vacancy opportunities and thereby rendering a new solution for the Shimer’s puzzle. Further, the basic idea of this research was developed within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the key components of the search and matching model entailing the fundamental surplus fraction.  The resulting integrated model can be viewed as a theoretical framework for investigating the implications of including long-term risky nominal debt and the debt overhang for the fundamental surplus fraction in the structure involving financial frictions and the main features of the search and matching model subject to firm-specific productivity shocks and inflation. Considering the Iranian economy features, the model has been simutated for two cases one involves inertia in prices and the other one entails flexible prices.  The findings show that a monetary regime that leads to inflation would ensue the debt overhang episodes via reducing the real value of companies' debts. As leverage and default rates upsurge, firms pass up new investments and this leads to reduced labor force recruitment, job vacancy opportunities cut, and increased unemployment. As such, the debt overhang in companies lowers the fundamental surplus fraction and thus aggravates the impact of shocks on the elasticity of the labor market compression.

Crime is a multifaceted phenomenon that has always attracted the attention of economists, sociologists, lawyers and psychologists. Many experts and economic pioneers consider it necessary to achieve economic development to improve the level of security and reduce crime in the society. Since the occurrence of any phenomenon is affected by various factors, the occurrence of crime as an undesirable phenomenon is not excluded from this rule. Various economic, social and political factors affect crime in society. Identifying these factors can help a lot in the correct understanding and appropriate policy making in order to control and reduce the crime rate in the society. Meanwhile, one of the most important economic factors affecting crime is unemployment. Unemployment is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, which clearly affects many social phenomena, including crime. In this regard, the main goal of the present study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime and to identify factors affecting crime in the Iranian cities. The statistical population of the current research is the cities of Iran and the time range under investigation is 2016.

In this study, the spatial causality test was used to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime. The first step in investigating the spatial causality relationship between the studied variables is to perform the spatial independence test of the variables. In the second step, the existence of spatial dependence between variables is examined. If both the investigated variables have a spatial structure and there is a spatial dependence between the two variables, then the spatial causality test is performed in the third step. In this study, the spatial econometric approach has also been used to estimate the crime model in the cities of Iran. In this regard, the presence of spatial effects in the model has been tested using Moran's I test, and then the most appropriate spatial regression model has been selected and estimated based on the Lagrange coefficient (LM) test and the LR diagnostic tests. The software packages used in this study are Matlab 2023, GeoDa 1.16 and Stata 15.

The results of the spatial tests show that both crime index and unemployment rate have a spatial structure and the spatial dependence between these two variables was also confirmed, so in the third step, the spatial causality has been tested. The results of spatial causality test indicate the existence of a two-way causality relationship between the crime index and the unemployment rate. In other words, unemployment was the cause of crime during the period under investigation, and unemployment also led to the occurrence and increase of crime. According to the results of the spatial causality test, the crime model of the Iranian cities was developed in terms of the unemployment variable and several control variables. In order to estimate the model, the presence of spatial effects was first investigated using Moran's I test. The results of this test indicate the presence of spatial effects in the model. Also, based on the results of the Lagrange coefficient and likelihood ratio tests, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was chosen as the most appropriate method for estimating the model. The results of the estimation of the crime model indicate that the spatial lag coefficient is positive and significant at a high level, which indicates the existence of spatial dependence in the model. The positiveness of this coefficient shows that an increase in crime in one city causes an increase in crime in neighboring cities. Also, according to the results of the research, the variables of unemployment, industrialization, urbanization and divorce rate are the most important variables affecting crime rate. The results show positive and significant relationships between unemployment, urbanization, divorce rate, and crime. The industrialization variable also has a negative and significant effect on crime. Also, the spillover effect of the unemployment variable is negative and significant. Based on the results, the higher the unemployment rate and the urbanization rate in the cities, the crime rate will also increase in those cities. On the other hand, as cities move toward industrialization and the number of industrial enterprises in them increases, the rate of crime will decrease more.

The findings reveal that, unemployment is one of the most important variables affecting crime in the Iranian cities. So, it is recommended that authorities pay special attention to sustainable policies regarding employment and its proportional distribution in cities. Considering excessive growth of urbanization and its detrimental impact on rampant crime rates, it is suggested that statesmen and policy makers create more facilities and pay special attention to rural areas to provide reverse migration in order to prevent occurrence of various crimes, which are happenning due to population increase especially in informal settlements of larger cities.

We survey the literature on the relationship between macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth and identify gaps in our knowledge. We examine the role of macroeconomic policies (fiscal, monetary, macroprudential, and exchange rate) and measures of inclusiveness (income inequality, consumption inequality, wealth inequality, poverty, and unemployment) across countries at different income levels. Avoiding procyclical macroeconomic policies and mitigating macroeconomic volatility should be on the agenda of all policymakers concerned with promoting inclusive growth. The emerging theory and evidence suggest a strong role for macroeconomic policies in shaping inclusive growth, both in the short-run and the long-run. The two-way relationship between the macroeconomy and inequality underscores the challenge of identifying and estimating causal relationships. Models with heterogeneous agents have much to offer in this area.

Due to the need to understand how oil income uncertainty affects macroeconomic variables, in this study, the asymmetric effect of oil export on GDP, unemployment and income distribution in Iran was investigated. For this purpose, required data were collected from central bank during 1990-2022 and analyzed with generalized moments model (GMM). Results showed that oil export has an asymmetric effect on GDP, unemployment rate and Gini coefficient. Also, the positive momentum of oil exports has strong positive significant effect on GDP, weak positive significant effect on unemployment rate, and strong positive significant effect on the Gini coefficient. Since the results of the research showed that the positive impulse of oil export has a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate, it is suggested to the economic policy makers to prevent its adverse effects on employment with a coherent program and with supportive packages, reduce the welfare of the newly unemployed. Finally, since the positive momentum of oil exports on the one hand has a significant positive effect on the gross domestic product and on the other hand it increases income inequality, "growth with redistribution" and "growth with greater equality" should be on the agenda of the country's planners.

Unemployment is a key economic indicator that has consistently garnered attention from policymakers, economists, and the public. In major oil-exporting countries like members of OPEC, crude oil exports significantly impact revenue, foreign exchange flows, and the labor market. This research investigates the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil price fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and unemployment. To achieve this, annual data (1990-2020) from selected oil-producing countries (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria) were analyzed. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach with asymmetric lags will be employed to reveal the asymmetric impacts on unemployment in response to oil price and exchange rate fluctuations. Our findings suggest that positive oil price shocks have a significant short-term impact on increasing unemployment in these countries, while negative oil price shocks have no significant short-term effect on unemployment. However, in the long term, the impact of a positive oil price shock on unemployment is greater than the impact of a negative oil price shock. Additionally, positive exchange rate changes (depreciation of domestic currency against foreign currency) have a significant negative impact on unemployment in the short term. Regarding the long-term effects of exchange rate changes, both positive and negative changes impact unemployment in these selected countries, leading to decreases and increases, respectively. Notably, the magnitude of the impact of appreciations in the exchange rate is greater than that of depreciations.In contrast, in the long term, the effect of a positive oil shock on unemployment is greater than a negative oil shock.

Reduction of unemployment as one of the key indicators of economic evaluation of countries has always been the focus of attention of economists and politicians of countries. In recent decades and with the expansion of the new institutionalism approach, good governance and its components have been considered as one of the important factors affecting the development strategy of countries and unemployment control. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of good governance on unemployment in selected oil exporting countries. In this regard; The effect of good governance indicators on unemployment in selected OPEC member countries was investigated by using the Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The data used in this research are annual data extracted from reliable scientific organizations and databases for the period from 2002 to 2021. Considering the strong correlation between good governance indicators and in order to prevent problems caused by multiple collinearity, by using the principal component analysis (PCA) method, the main governance components were extracted and the first principal component ( PC〗_1) was included in the model as a proxy for different dimensions of governance. The results of the estimation of the model showed that the first main component of governance has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in this group of countries, which means that improving the governance situation can provide the basis for reducing unemployment in OPEC member countries. Also, the interest rate, as one of the macro variables affecting unemployment entered in the model, has a positive and significant effect on unemployment. 

Using the GMM econometric method, this article examines the impact of active labor market policies as a percentage of GDP, inflation, tax gap, foreign direct investment and unemployment rate on reducing the unemployment rate using statistical data from Iran and The G20 member countries, which was collected as a panel data in the period from 2005 to 2022, and the estimation results of econometric models show that a 1% increase in the expenditure of active labor market policies reduces the unemployment rate by 0.031%, which It seems that this decrease in the unemployment rate due to a one percent increase in the expenditure of active labor market policies is less than the study conducted by Escadoro in 2018 in the study of the impact of active labor market policies on reducing the unemployment rate of OECD member countries and concluded that a 1 percent increase in expenditure The active policies of the labor market will be forced to reduce the unemployment rate by 0.38%. The researches conducted indicate that the costs of the active policies of the labor market in Iran (creating direct jobs, job search services, wage subsidies and training and skills training in the workplace) and..) are done, they can help the success of workers in finding and finding jobs and ultimately lead to the reduction of unemployment in Iran.

Unemployment is one of the most important issues in all countries around the world. An increase in the number of unemployed in any society will cause many problems. Due to the high importance of the issue of unemployment, in many researches, the correct recognition and deep understanding of the factors affecting unemployment to reduce it has been considered. The current research collects data related to the Population and Housing Census 2016 of the Statistical Center of Iran. In these data, the economically active population and the number of unemployed, aged 15 years old or above are categorized by gender and different levels of education in Iran counties. The aim pursued during this research is the spatial modeling of the number of unemployed in counties of Iran, based on gender and education as covariates. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian approach and a method called “integrated nested Laplace approximation” or INLA for short, have been used. After fitting the appropriate spatial model, the coefficients of covariates have been estimated. The obtained results show that women's unemployment is higher than men's, and unemployment has also increased with the increase of education level compared to illiteracy. Finally, the spatial effects of the counties have been estimated and the counties with the highest and the lowest risk of unemployment, as well as the counties that have no significant difference with the average unemployment of the country, have been identified.

Investigating and Comparing the Effects of Corporate Income Taxes and Government Expenditures on Unemployment Rates in Iranian ProvincesAbstract:Unemployment is one of the most significant economic and social issues in the country, with extensive implications for people's lives and economic development. Reducing the unemployment rate through various policies, including changes in government expenditures and tax rates, is a matter of concern. Given the importance of the issue of unemployment at the provincial level in Iran and the necessity of identifying the factors affecting it, this study seeks to investigate and compare the effects of corporate income taxes and government expenditures on the unemployment rates in Iranian provinces during the years 2008-2021. The model under study is dynamic, as the unemployment variable is influenced by its past values, thus creating autoregressive conditions. Accordingly, the econometric method used in this study is generalized method of moments (GMM). The results showed that corporate income taxes, the unemployment rate in the previous period, and urbanization have a positive impact on unemployment. On the other hand, economic growth variables and the government expenditure index have a significant negative effect on unemployment. Considering that the coefficient of corporate income taxes is greater than the estimated coefficient of government expenditures, corporate taxes have a more significant impact on the unemployment rate than government expenditures. Based on the results, it is suggested that the policy-making process should prioritize reducing corporate income taxes and allocating government expenditures towards job creation and business development. 

The development of the capital market is considered as a driving force for economic activities and improving the employment environment in societies. In this regard, the aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and the capital market (stock price index) in Iran using the autoregressive approach with distributional intervals (ARDL) and seasonal data related to the period of 2000-2019. The results of the cointegration test show that there is a negative and significant relationship between unemployment rate and the stock price index; As the stock price index increases (decreases), unemployment decreases (increases). On the other hand, the obtained results show that an increase in the exchange rate and an increase in the inflation rate lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate, while the unemployment rate increases with an increase in the GDP per capita. In addition, the results of the causality test based on the error correction model show that the stock price index is the causality of the unemployment rate in the short term. The findings of this research have important policy implications for the development of the capital market (improvement of the stock price index) with the aim of reducing the unemployment rate.

The objective of this paper is to examine the welfare cost of inflation in the context of Iran's economy, incorporating labor market frictions (search theory) within a monetary general equilibrium model. The model also features a cash-in-advance constraint. To achieve this goal, through the utilization of calibration and sensitivity analysis in the steady state, the findings indicate that both employment and production are contingent on the elasticity of labor supply and the elasticity of vacancies in job matches. Depending on these two parameters, they may exhibit an increase in response to an escalation in the inflation rate. Additionally, the three-month optimal inflation rate in a stable state is determined to be 4.66%. The welfare gains, derived from reducing the three-month inflation rate from its current level of 5.3% to the optimal rate in a steady state, is calculated to be 0.0031% of total consumption. Therefore, based on the results, it is suggested that in inflation reduction policies, the effects of this reduction on welfare are taken into consideration, and special attention should be paid to the area of business investment by giving tax incentives, especially tax credits.

The unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are among the most important economic indicators that understanding their current and future trends can help policymakers and decision-makers adopt appropriate solutions to prevent crises and improve the country’s economic situation. Accurate prediction of these two indicators can be useful in future planning and improving the country’s economy and people’s livelihoods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques and tools, given their many capabilities, can play a very important role in predicting important economic indicators. Therefore, given the high importance of the two indicators of unemployment rate and GDP on the economy of our country Iran, this article intends to first predict these two indicators separately and then predict the rate of GDP growth based on the unemployment rate using artificial intelligence techniques. For this purpose, in this research, seasonal data related to GDP and its components and the unemployment rate for the years 1976-2022 have been used. Also, machine learning models based on regression have been used for prediction. The results show that the predictions of the mentioned models have an appropriate accuracy in terms of evaluation criteria such as root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, which indicates.

Unemployment is one of the problems of developing countries and addressing this problem requires proper and comprehensive planning. In view of the escalation of oppressive economic sanctions against Iran, the policies of the resistance economy to deal with economic and political shocks and shocks were put on the agenda. Considering the importance of resistance economics, the effect of resistance economic indicators on unemployment control in Iranian provinces was investigated using the generalized least squares econometric method of panel estimation. The results show that there is a significant relationship between unemployment rate with people-centered economy, knowledge-based economy, endogenous economy, justice-oriented and continuous progress as components of resistance economy in Iranian provinces. Thus, the endogenous of the economy and the knowledge base of the economy with a coefficient of 0.68 and 0.61 percent, respectively, have the greatest impact on reducing unemployment in the provinces of Iran. Therefore, it is necessary for economic and regional policymakers to reduce unemployment in the provinces of Iran, increase growth and technology centers, equip and upgrade skills centers, develop technology infrastructure, regional balance policies, empower low-income, reduce production tax rates. And put monetary and financial discipline on their agenda.

Ensuring energy security is one of the most vital goals for countries that seek sustainable economic development because fluctuations in global energy markets lead to economic instability for energy-exporting countries (such as Iran). Also, developing countries (such as Iran) have reasons to worry about energy security. First, they cannot apply imported energy technologies, which leads to dependence on foreign know-how. Second, these countries need better governance to manage energy technologies effectively. Third, in cases of disruption due to natural or man-made events, the energy infrastructure in these countries is more vulnerable. In this regard, the current research seeks to investigate the role of the energy security risk index and inflation rate in improving the economic stability of Iran by using the very new approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1991 to 2021. The results show that the quantile (0.5 to 0.7) of the energy security risk index and the quantile (0.4 to 0.9) of economic stability indicate a negative relationship. Therefore, the energy security risk index causes economic stability to decrease. Also, in quantile (0.1 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.1 to 0.7) economic stability have a negative relationship, and in quantile (0.6 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.7 to 0.95) economic stability has a positive relationship. Therefore, a high inflation rate hurts economic stability in the long run. Thus, the results show the importance of international cooperation in developing a more sustainable energy system that increases the security of energy supply and economic stability.

Answering the fundamental question of whether technological progress can lead to unemployment has always been one of the most challenging issues in economics. In this regard, the present study investigates the effect of technology-based innovations (including process innovation and product innovation) on unemployment using panel data techniques (random effects model) and data from a sample of developing countries during the period 2008-2018. To this end, the number of patents registered is considered as an index of process innovation and the ratio of research and development (R&D) expenditure to GDP is considered as an index of product innovation. Moreover, GDP per capita, inflation and trade openness are included in the model as control variables. The results obtained from the estimation of the panel model show that both the growth of process innovation and the growth of product innovation reduce unemployment. In addition, the empirical results indicate that GDP per capita and trade openness have a negative and significant effect on unemployment, but the effect of inflation on unemployment is not statistically significant. Overall, the findings of this study have important policy implications for dealing with the problem of unemployment in developing countries through increased investment in R&D and stronger patent protection.