تورم

In recent years, sukuk has been proposed as an Islamic financing and an alternative to conventional bonds. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the role of sukuk on the selected macro indicators of a case study of selected Islamic countries. The current research method is practical and the time frame of the current research is 2010-2020. In this research, the data of 12 selected Islamic countries (Maldives, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, Pakistan and Iran) were used to estimate the model using the panel data approach in a static state. According to the research results, Sukuk has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. With every one percent increase in the issuance of sukuk bonds, the economic growth increases by 0.043 units; Also, based on the results of the economic growth equation; consumption (0.326 and significant); government expenditures (0.156 and meaningless); human resources (0.287 and significant); capital (0.209 and significant); liquidity (0.065 and insignificant) and openness of the economy (0.178 and significant); They affect economic growth. Sukuk has a negative and significant effect on inflation at the 95% confidence level; With the increase of each unit in the issuance of sukuk bonds, inflation decreases by 0.015 units; Also, based on the results of the inflation equation; exchange rate (0.361 and significant) and the gap between GDP and potential production (0.427 and significant); They affect inflation. Finally, sukuk has no significant effect on unemployment; Also, based on the results of the unemployment equation; Liquidity (0.279); The gap between GDP and potential production (0.265) and inflation (-0.289) have a significant effect on unemployment.

This paper aims to explain the real-fiscal linkages by identifying the macroeconomic determinants of government revenue in Iran. To achieve this, the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method was applied using data from 1972 to 2020. The findings indicate that inflation, centralization, the divergence of public prices from market prices, and the concentration of tax collection on labor income tax all have positive effects on government revenue in Iran. In contrast, economic growth and trade openness have negative effects on government revenue. Overall, these findings support implementing an economic growth strategy that is internally comprehensive within the tax system and externally coherent in terms of the economics of growth, and to which the government has a “tight commitment”. “Internally comprehensive” refers to establishing a mature progressive tax system that includes an inflation-adjusted comprehensive income tax along with automatic complete indexation. When complete and explicit automatic indexation is lacking, fiscal authorities may still benefit from inflation, which can lead to persistent political incentives for inflation inertia. “Externally coherent” refers to ensuring that aspects such as openness, decentralization of macro-fiscal decision-making, and the efficient size of government align with the comprehensive tax system to promote economic growth.

Higher education serves human resource development and national transformation through education, research, and social service. Since the Great Depression of 1929 until the COVID-19 pandemic, various research efforts have been made to analyze the effects of economic uncertainty on underlying indicators, including higher education. After the information technology revolution and its intermittent spread to developing countries and the increased attention of households to higher education, as well as the increased demand for educated labor by firms, it has had an increasing and then decreasing trend from 2000 to 2019.In this study, the impact of economic variables, especially inflation, monetary policies, and economic policy uncertainty, on the demand for enrollment in higher education was examined. The countries studied included Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan. The time period studied was from 1971 to 2022. The econometric method used in examining the model was the generalized system moment method. The results of the study showed that GDP per capita, secondary school enrollment rate, urbanization ratio to total population, global uncertainty index and broad money as an indicator of monetary policies and the share of education expenditure in government expenditure had a positive and significant effect, and on the other hand, the consumer price index and the interaction of inflation, money and uncertainty had a negative and significant effect on the demand for enrollment in higher education. The share of household expenditure to total GDP and the ratio of the young population to the total population did not have a significant effect on the demand for enrollment in higher education in the countries studied.

One of the main challenges when studying economic sanctions is the indexation of sanctions. Without a specific index that clearly shows the effects of sanctions, economic modeling does not provide reliable results. This article quantifies the effects of sanctions against the Iranian economy on the consumer price index (inflation) over the period 1979-2022. For this purpose, a quantitative index was used to measure the strength of sanctions and compare their severity with each other using mathematical calculations. Then, by using the Structural Vector Autoregression model and Vector Error Correction model, the effects of sanctions on inflation in the Iranian economy and its amount were separated from other effective factors is measured. The main goal of this article is to answer the question “Do sanctions have an effect on inflation in the Iranian economy?” The results indicate that sanctions have contributed to an increase in the general consumer price index (inflation) of 7.9 percent. This shows that in inflation targeting, in addition to variables such as liquidity volume, interest rate, etc., the policymaker should pay special attention to the quantification of the severity of sanctions.

Monetary policies and factors influencing liquidity creation are among the key drivers of inflation in the economy. Various elements play a role in the process of liquidity creation and analyzing the impact of each can greatly aid in controlling inflation and shaping macroeconomic policies. This study investigates the effects of different components of liquidity on inflation in Iran during the period 1981-2021, employing Bayesian averaging methods. Using three Bayesian averaging techniques -BACE, BAS, and BMA- the study identifies the main factors influencing inflation. Subsequently, inflation models are estimated using JMA and MALLOWS methods. Robust checks, conducted via machine learning techniques, confirm the findings of JMA and MALLOWS. The results reveal that among the six key factors contributing to liquidity creation, the most significant drivers of inflation are commercial banks overdraft, the money supply, and inflation expectations. Across all methods employed, the findings indicate that the net debt of government to the central bank has a far smaller inflationary effect compared to the aforementioned three factors. Additionally, growth in quasi-money and the central bank's foreign assets exhibit anti-inflationary effects.

One of the characteristics of oil-exporting countries like Iran is the dependence of the economic structure on the income from oil exports, which causes the Iranian economy to be affected by the conditions of recession or boom prevailing on the world economy. In this case, extreme oil price fluctuations can affect inflation. In this research, the time-frequency characteristics of the oil price-inflation relationship and oil price-inflation volatility with wavelet analysis approach and monthly data are investigated for the period 1980-2020. The results show that there is a positive, in-phase and significant coherence between inflation and oil prices in the short term. However, in some years, a negative and out-of-phase correlation has been established, so that with the passage of time and in the medium and long term, the coherence between the two series has disappeared. Also, there is a positive and significant correlation between inflation and oil price volatility and by controlling the effect of liquidity growth, the correlation of oil price and oil price volatility with inflation has intensified. Therefore, it is suggested to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenues to the minimum possible amount.

Inflation means the continuous increase in the price of commodities and services in a society and for a certain period of time. Inflation decreases the purchasing power of households, although this decrease in purchasing power will not be the same in all commodities, and this makes it difficult to predict economic and analytical conditions and investment opportunities.Investigating the consequences of inflation in countries, such as the reduction of purchasing power, using different techniques such as data mining techniques, seems necessary. On the other hand, by predicting inflation and analyzing the data, it is possible to manage it correctly and on time. Data mining techniques are a useful tool in solving various problems in the economic field by identifying correlations and discovering patterns that helps the analysts to make the best predictions of economic indicators. In the economic field, the use of some data mining techniques brings a set of advantages such as optimization of basic activities. The present study deals with the identification of bottleneck commodities in the chain of basic commodities in the country. In order to obtain different variables and the impact of different product groups on inflation, 12 basic groups, which are the main products that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), were analyzed and evaluated during the years 2017 to 2021.the present study identifies bottleneck commodities which pricing them are more important in the control of inflation rate. In order to achieve this goal, 12 groups of basic commodities of the country, which are the main commodities that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), were collected and presented in a complete graph. For each node that represents a group of basic commodities, five fratures were considered, the annual inflation related to each group, the degree of influence in increasing the total index, the number of subgroups of each main group, the degree of dependency, and the priority (level of demand). Then, by running the traveling salesman algorithm on the graph, we found a path where the group of foods and beverages is the bottleneck of the research subject. The results of the present study show that the management of pricing this group can have an effective impact on the inflation control of other groups over time.

In recent years, the country has experienced large budget deficits and increasing inflation rates. Imbalances in both the budget and banking sectors have been major factors contributing to this inflation. This study investigates the relationships between key monetary variables, government budget deficits, gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rates, and oil revenues from 1991 to 2022, using a dynamic vector error correction model. The findings show that government budget deficits have a significant long-run positive effect on the monetary base, which in turn increases inflation. The analysis also finds a one-way relationship where the monetary base and operating balance deficit lead to higher inflation rates. It suggests that the operating balance deficit may also affect changes in the monetary base. Overall, the results indicate that monetary dynamics in the country are closely related to government budget deficits, emphasizing the important roles of both monetary and fiscal factors in driving inflation.

Mehrdad Mahmoudian Zamaneh Mohammad Jafari Morteza Ezzati Abstract Aim and

The housing sector is one of the main pillars of the economy in many countries, including Iran. This sector plays an important role in economic development, employment and the welfare level of households. As a result of the sanctions, with restrictions on the foreign sector, the exchange rate changes, and as a result, the market of other assets, including the supply of housing, changes. The interrelationship between the housing market, exchange rate and economic sanctions has made us investigate the factors affecting the production and supply of housing under the influence of the exchange rate and sanction. The method used for data analysis is the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The findings of this research show that the price of housing, the number of issued building permits and inflation have a positive effect on the supply of housing, and the exchange rate, sanctions and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the supply of housing. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect on the reduction of housing supply through the exchange rate.

Different methods can be used to estimate the model of the equations of this study, such as single equation methods or methods of solving simultaneous equations, whose estimates are different. The most common methods of solving simultaneous equations are the two-stage and three-stage least squares regression methods, as well as apparently unrelated regression, which is used when there is a relationship between the error part of the equations Or there is a simultaneous correlation. The method discussed in this research is the model of apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) or apparently unrelated regression equations (SURE), which was proposed in 1962 in econometrics. It is used in this review.

The findings of this research show that housing price variables, the number of building permits issued, and inflation have a positive effect on the housing supply, while the exchange rate, sanctions, and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the housing supply. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect through the exchange rate on the reduction of housing supply. Discussion and

In the preliminary results, the estimate for the first equation of the average effect of labor wages as a part of the production cost was not significant. But in estimates, the effect of the price of construction materials is significant. This variable was removed from the model. It can be said that one of the reasons for the non-significance of the wage variable is its low relative growth compared to the growth of housing prices and the growth of construction materials. On the other hand, the share of wages in housing construction costs is much lower than the costs of materials and other costs. This causes the wage rate in Iran to be less effective in housing supply. It can also be said that an increase in the provincial GDP, housing prices and the number of building permits issued increases housing supply. The results of the second equation show that exports, imports, sanctions index, liquidity volume and provincial gross domestic product explain 99% of exchange rate changes. It is worth mentioning that the increase in exports and the sanctions index increases the exchange rate, but with the increase in imports, the exchange rate decreases, which shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and imports. Since the exchange rate increases under the influence of the sanctions and the exchange rate has a negative effect on the housing supply, it can be said that the sanctions have a direct effect on the economic activities of supply and demand due to the disruption of security, certainty and economic stability. Housing has an effect on the supply of housing due to the change in the exchange rate.

Inflation affects the budget deficit in two dimensions: income (Tanzi hypothesis) and expenses (Patinkin hypothesis). Understanding how inflation affects the government budget deficit in different countries can provide the basis for controlling inflation and reducing the budget deficit. To this end, the present study simultaneously examines the impact of inflation on government budget deficits in selected developed and developing countries using annual data for the period 2019-2000 despite the coronavirus epidemic in November 2019. For this purpose, first using the Quantile panel, it has studied the effect of inflation on the budget deficit in developing countries (almost with high inflation) and then developed countries (low inflation). The results of model estimation in both groups of countries show the effect of inflation on the budget deficit, but in two different cases. In other words, this effect in developed countries indicates that both the Tanzi effect and the Patinkin effect have been established in these countries, but in the group of developing countries, the Tanzi effect due to Patinkin is predominant. In fact, the results in countries with higher inflation show that as a result of rising inflation, the government budget deficit has increased

Land is one of the most critical inputs in various sectors, including housing, agriculture, industry, and the start of any economic activity, along with capital and labor. Having land for many families to meet the necessary needs of residents and enterprises is considered a production input, and its capital aspect is weak (Ghanbari et al., 2017). In developing economies, including Iran’s economy, investment in fixed assets such as land and housing has a high return, which, despite high inflation, can maintain the purchasing power of families in proportion to inflation as an inflationary shield (Najafi,2013). The exchange rate is among the most important factors influencing Iran’s economy. Considering the dependence of Iran’s economy on the exchange rate, its fluctuations play a fundamental role in economic performance and the price of goods and services. Land is also a durable commodity; its price is determined in the supply and demand market and is not excluded from the effects of the exchange rate. (Tavakoli & Sayah,2010). In the past years, the price of this input has increased due to the increase in the general level of prices and the increase in capital demand for land. Additionally, from this point of view, it has played a significant role in increasing the prices of goods and is considered one of the factors of inflationary stagnation in the economy. Land has the largest share in the price of housing; as a necessary commodity without substitute, it has also caused a sharp increase in the price of housing. Many factors have been involved in increasing the general level of prices and land prices. Due to the dependence of Iran’s economy on the exchange rate, one of the most important factors of inflation is the changes in the exchange rate, which has a strong effect on the increase in the price of goods and services and, consequently, land (Tavakoli & Sayah,2010). The price of land as an input reflects the current cost of financing (sometimes considered equal to the price of capital supply) and expectations about the cost of financing in the future. From the perspective of cost pressures and rising input prices, it can cause or exacerbate inflation.  Various studies have been conducted on the exchange rate and how it affects the economy, as well as land prices and the factors affecting them. However, no one has examined the relationship between exchange rates and land, and how they affect each other is still in question. Since land, in the view of some economists, is considered separately as an important input in the production function, along with capital and labor, it is important to understand the factors affecting it. Since the Iranian economy is heavily affected by the exchange rate, land, in addition to being a production input, is considered a capital and low-risk commodity. Therefore, its level of impact is important. The main goal of the research is to answer the question of how and to what extent the exchange rate affects the price of urban land.

This research aims to investigate how the exchange rate affects the price of urban land as a commodity in the economy. It was conducted using an autoregressive model with distributional lags. It examined the effect of the exchange rate on the urban land price index from 1992 to 2011 in both short-term and long-term terms and achieved valuable results that will be useful to consider in the field of planning and policymaking. This model is beneficial for solving time series problems and can be used both in stationary and once-differentiated conditions. This flexibility of the ARDL model provides a significant advantage in econometric analysis. The ARDL model is designed using a combination of past lags of the dependent variable and explanatory (independent) variables. Among the advantages of the autoregressive model with distributed lags are the lack of the need for the order of cointegration of the variables at the level or first-order difference, the possibility of analyzing short-term and long-term relationships simultaneously, the ability to apply to small samples, and high flexibility in economic issues. Given that the number of observations is (30 years) and the minimum data required for this model is available, this method has been evaluated as appropriate for estimating the relationship between exchange rate growth and urban land price index growth.

The results of the model indicate that the growth of the land price index was a function of the dependent variable itself with a time lag of one and two years. According to the estimate, if the exchange rate increases by one percent, the land price index will grow by 0.70 percent in the same period. The results also indicate that in the long run, the impact of the growth of the urban land price index on the growth of the exchange rate has not been significant. Despite this impact, government intervention is necessary to prevent market failure and control the market, and policies and strategies have been proposed to control and manage the exchange rate and urban land price by implementing which the exchange rate can be controlled and the land market stabilized.

As mentioned in this study, the effect of exchange rate growth on the growth of the urban land price index in the period 1992 to 2021 was evaluated using the autoregressive model method with a wide lag. Land is an essential commodity for every individual as an input for building a place to live. In addition, it is also considered a major and non-renewable resource in sustainable urban development. From these perspectives, it is essential to manage supply and control its price and fair distribution. Given the dependence of the Iranian economy on the exchange rate, its fluctuations play a fundamental role in economic performance and the prices of goods and services. Given that land is also a commodity, its price is determined in the market by supply and demand; it is not exempt from the effects of the exchange rate. This means that in the short term, a one percent increase in the exchange rate leads to a 0.7 percent increase in the urban land price index. The results also indicate that in the long term, the impact of the growth of the urban land price index on the growth of the exchange rate has not been significant.

Iran and the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (saudi arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain) as the most important economic and political pillars in the oil-rich region of the Persian Gulf, are among the most important exporters of oil in the world market, whose economy relies on oil revenues. is Each of these countries, based on their economic structure, market requirements, internal institutions and different business conditions, have used various combinations of income sources in order to reduce the effects of oil shocks in different economic sectors. Therefore, investigating the effects of oil shocks on the macroeconomic variables of these countries separately and with a comparative approach is significant.

This article aims to analyze the impact of oil income shocks on the variables of economic growth, trade balance and inflation in Iran and the member countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and during the period from 1980 to 2017 using the shock response functions of the Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR). ) has investigated and compared the effect of oil income shocks on macroeconomic variables of each of the mentioned countries separately.

The result shows that oil income shocks affect economic growth, trade balance and inflation in Iran and GCC countries. By comparing the effect of the oil shock on the economy of Saudi Arabia and Iran, it can be said that the positive effect of the oil shock on the economic growth and trade balance of Saudi Arabia is shorter than that of Iran in terms of duration, but the effect of the shock on inflation in Iran is significant for longer periods than in Saudi Arabia. Also, the positive effect of the oil shock on the economic growth and trade balance of Bahrain is greater than that of Iran in terms of the duration of the effect, but the effect of the oil shock on inflation in Bahrain is significant for less periods than Iran. In the country of Kuwait, the effect of the oil shock on the economic growth and trade balance of this country is more stable and longer than that of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, but the intensity of the impact of the oil shock on inflation in Kuwait is much less compared to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. In Oman, the effect of the oil income shock on the economic growth and trade balance of this country has been more stable and continuous for longer periods compared to Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait, and the shock effect on Oman's inflation has had a negligible effect. By comparing the effect of the oil shock on economic growth, the trade balance of the UAE with other countries, it can be said that the effect of the shock is somewhat similar to that of Saudi Arabia, and the positive reaction of the UAE's inflation to oil income shocks is different from the reaction of the inflation of other countries except Bahrain. Comparatively, Qatar's economy has not been affected by oil income shocks compared to other studied countries. In the country of Qatar, the oil income shock has no significant effect on economic growth, trade balance and inflation, and it behaves differently from other countries under investigation. In terms of behavioral comparison among these economic variables, Iran's inflation response to oil income shocks is significantly different from other GCC countries. Iran's inflation has shown a positive reaction to the oil income shock, which has not disappeared in the long term, but in most of the GCC countries, inflation has shown an insignificant reaction to the oil income shock (except for Saudi Arabia) that the shock effect in Long gone.

In the general conclusion, a major heterogeneity is caused by the different degree of dependence of the economy of these countries on oil revenues and the specific characteristics of their economic structure, which causes significant differences in the response of these countries' economy to oil shocks in terms of duration and intensity has been

Inflation uncertainty is as important as the inflation rate. Even if all prices in the economy are flexible, a change in this variable has serious welfare loss consequences for risk-averse economic agents. Therefore, modeling and forecasting inflation uncertainty is of importance. The uncertainty of future price levels increases the risk for long-term contracts and increases the cost of hedging against inflation. Hence, in order to minimize the cost of hedging and the loss of wealth, it is important to be able to model and predict the behavior of inflation uncertainty as much as possible. For this purpose, in the current research, the monthly inflation data of Iran was used in the period from April 2011 to March 2024. In this paper, a Markov regime switching model has been used. Assuming linear behavior in economic processes can provide useful approximations of their actual time paths. However, the existence of changes in the macroeconomic environment obliges policymakers to use nonlinear models. Because ignoring breaks and significant changes will lead to serious mistakes. Correct inferences about the inflation regime are of vital importance for the implementation of monetary policies. Additionally, in order to provide an accurate estimate of unconditional inflation uncertainty, each regime is allowed to use a separate conditional distribution. The results show that the important factor in the increase and persistence of inflation uncertainty in Iran is not the persistence of regimes caused by external shocks such as sanctions, but the persistence within the regime due to the empirical characteristics of this variable and economic policies. Also, further investigations in this research show that people have less expectation errors in the regime with low inflation Volatility.

High and volatile inflation has had numerous adverse effects on the Iranian economy. Effective inflation-targeting policies require a thorough understanding of the key drivers of inflation. This study aims to identify the most important determinants of inflation in the Iranian economy from 2008 to 2022. In this study, tree-based ensemble methods, which are a class of intelligent machine-learning techniques, have been utilized. Furthermore, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are utilized to interpret model predictions and determine feature importance. Model performance is evaluated using three error metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Results indicate that Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) exhibit the lowest error rates across all three metrics. The findings reveal that broad money growth is the most significant determinant of inflation, contributing an average of 72% across all models. The exchange rate, while a contributing factor, plays a less substantial role compared to broad money, accounting for approximately 17% of the inflationary pressures.

Consumers' perceptions of inflation can differ markedly from official statistics, especially in heterogeneous market environments. A significant discrepancy between public perception and official inflation figures can erode trust in governmental statistical agencies and central banks, potentially undermining the objectives of monetary policy. Furthermore, households may alter their economic behaviors, including consumption, investment, and savings, based on their perceived inflation rates, leading to deviations from policymakers' intended goals. This study adopts a cognitive approach to examine this phenomenon. Within a behavioral economics framework, we introduce an index to measure the perceived inflation of Iranian citizens. This index is derived from survey data and official statistics provided by the Statistical Center of Iran, specifically focusing on the food and beverage consumption group in 1399, disaggregated by province. Our findings indicate that West Azerbaijan province reported the highest perceived inflation for food and beverages, while Golestan province reported the lowest, highlighting a substantial disparity compared to official inflation rates. Even in Tehran, Iran's most populous province, residents perceived a significantly higher inflation rate, estimated to be 11.8 percentage points above the official figure. Factors such as diverse consumption patterns, household economic conditions, accessibility to information, and personal experiences can contribute to the gap between perceived and official inflation. Understanding this discrepancy is crucial for policymakers in formulating effective economic and social policies.

Inflation has become one of Iran's permanent problems, and unlike many countries in the world, Iran has not been able to keep inflation at low levels. In this research, the factors affecting inflation between 2001 and 2021 were investigated using the quantitative regression approach to compare the intensity of the effects of variables at different levels of inflation. The results show that M2 growth has a positive and significant effect on inflation in all distributional quantiles, but this effect is ascending from the first to the second decile and then goes through a downward trend. The exchange rate coefficient, which was 0.120% in the first decade, reached 0.204% in the last decade and this shows that at low inflation levels, the exchange rate has less impact on inflation, but at higher levels of inflation, the intensity of the effect of the exchange rate on inflation also increases. In Iran's economy, the deficits that have led to the creation of liquidity beyond production have become a factor for excess demand and the formation of pressure to increase prices. In addition to the M2 growth, currency jumps have also played a significant role in Iran's inflation, and in the absence of currency jumps, the inflation rate experienced milder changes.

Market economies rely on the payment system to facilitate trade and exchange between businesses and consumers in the product market. "Payment" is the transfer of monetary value. The ability to control monetary policy instruments is one of the challenges of monetary policy in Iran. The reduction of the central bank's control over the money supply and the implementation of monetary policy is due to the change that occurs in the monetary base and the monetary multiplier. The structure of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models, like other general equilibrium models, aims to describe the behavior of the entire economy and use decision interaction analysis. Wisdom is built on different levels.Due to the existence of sanctions and the lack of clear and correct information on the amount of sales of crude oil and other export items and petroleum products and unnecessary complications in doing the economics paper, it is considered closed, but if the correct information in can be considered as the expansion of the economy.The findings of this section indicate that the central bank's reaction to the growth rate of the total index of the real sector of the economy against the reaction to the deviation of the total index from its long-term equilibrium level can be more effective in reducing the real effects of the shocks of the real sector of the economy on macroeconomic variables. . Because the central bank controls the status of asset returns in other parallel markets such as currency, price levels, deposits and loans, and therefore the reaction to the emotional dynamics of the market return against the reaction to the market index level further guarantees macroeconomic stability.