تولید

Mehrdad Mahmoudian Zamaneh Mohammad Jafari Morteza Ezzati Abstract Aim and

The housing sector is one of the main pillars of the economy in many countries, including Iran. This sector plays an important role in economic development, employment and the welfare level of households. As a result of the sanctions, with restrictions on the foreign sector, the exchange rate changes, and as a result, the market of other assets, including the supply of housing, changes. The interrelationship between the housing market, exchange rate and economic sanctions has made us investigate the factors affecting the production and supply of housing under the influence of the exchange rate and sanction. The method used for data analysis is the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The findings of this research show that the price of housing, the number of issued building permits and inflation have a positive effect on the supply of housing, and the exchange rate, sanctions and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the supply of housing. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect on the reduction of housing supply through the exchange rate.

Different methods can be used to estimate the model of the equations of this study, such as single equation methods or methods of solving simultaneous equations, whose estimates are different. The most common methods of solving simultaneous equations are the two-stage and three-stage least squares regression methods, as well as apparently unrelated regression, which is used when there is a relationship between the error part of the equations Or there is a simultaneous correlation. The method discussed in this research is the model of apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) or apparently unrelated regression equations (SURE), which was proposed in 1962 in econometrics. It is used in this review.

The findings of this research show that housing price variables, the number of building permits issued, and inflation have a positive effect on the housing supply, while the exchange rate, sanctions, and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the housing supply. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect through the exchange rate on the reduction of housing supply. Discussion and

In the preliminary results, the estimate for the first equation of the average effect of labor wages as a part of the production cost was not significant. But in estimates, the effect of the price of construction materials is significant. This variable was removed from the model. It can be said that one of the reasons for the non-significance of the wage variable is its low relative growth compared to the growth of housing prices and the growth of construction materials. On the other hand, the share of wages in housing construction costs is much lower than the costs of materials and other costs. This causes the wage rate in Iran to be less effective in housing supply. It can also be said that an increase in the provincial GDP, housing prices and the number of building permits issued increases housing supply. The results of the second equation show that exports, imports, sanctions index, liquidity volume and provincial gross domestic product explain 99% of exchange rate changes. It is worth mentioning that the increase in exports and the sanctions index increases the exchange rate, but with the increase in imports, the exchange rate decreases, which shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and imports. Since the exchange rate increases under the influence of the sanctions and the exchange rate has a negative effect on the housing supply, it can be said that the sanctions have a direct effect on the economic activities of supply and demand due to the disruption of security, certainty and economic stability. Housing has an effect on the supply of housing due to the change in the exchange rate.

High tax rates and tax burden are one of the most important causes of tax evasion. In addition, the tax burden caused by the increase in the tax rate leads to an increase in the activity in the underground economy sector, which in turn will increase tax evasion. Studies show that the amount of tax evasion in Iran is high and tax is one of the important and influencing factors. Based on this, the present article investigates the asymmetric effects of tax burden and production on Iran's tax evasion using the NARDL nonlinear model for the years 2014-2014. To calculate the amount of tax evasion, Tanzi's money demand method is used, which according to the estimation results of the model, with the increase of real per capita income and interest rate, the ratio of money volume to liquidity increases. Also, the asymmetric positive and negative effects of the tax burden have also led to a decrease in the ratio of money volume to liquidity. Therefore, to solve the problem of tax evasion in Iran, one of the most important solutions is the growth and development of the production sector.

The present article explains the asymmetric effect of tax burden and production on Iran's shadow economy using the NARDL nonlinear model for the years 2005-2021. In this research, the Tanzi approach of the demand function (money) has been used to estimate the size of the underground economy. The index of the underground economy in Iran has ups and downs during the period under review, and this trend has been increasing in the years 2014 to 2015. In recent years, paying more attention to the issue of tax revenues, tax transparency and the reduction of oil revenues of the government, the size of the underground economy has gone through its downward trend. Also, according to the results of the model, the asymmetric positive and negative effects of the tax burden lead to a decrease in the ratio of money to liquidity, which results in an increase in the volume of the underground economy. High tax rates and tax burden are one of the most important reasons for the increase in the size of the underground economy. A higher tax rate and tax burden will lead to increased activity in the underground economy sector, which in turn will increase the size of the underground economy. When the tax burden increases due to the increase in the tax rate, people move towards the underground economy faster, but the reduction of the tax burden will probably have a small impact on the underground economy. To solve the problem of the underground economy, one of the most important solutions that was examined in this research is the growth and development of the production sector. The government should have continuous planning for the improvement and growth of production and the continued growth of production for many years will result in the reduction of the underground economy.

Climate change is among the vital phenomena related to human societies, and its consequences have been demonstrated, particularly in recent decades, with varying intensity in many regions of the world. The importance of climate as one of the fundamental aspects of human life has never been as significant as it is today in macroeconomic and social issues. Analyzing climate change's economic impacts necessitates precise national and local analyses. Although numerous global studies examine the economic effects of climate change, limited research has been conducted at local levels within countries, especially concerning Iran. This article attempts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the susceptibility of the country's provincial economic production to climate change by utilizing a new dataset of weather conditions in the provinces from 2000 to 2020 through the random forest algorithm of machine learning subsets. Studies indicate a significant relationship between weather and sectors beyond agriculture, forestry, food security, tourism, health, fisheries, livestock, mining, and energy. Weather conditions can directly or indirectly impact various economic sectors, and their effect on economic activities is inevitable. However, research results regarding the impact of weather fluctuations face varied findings. Drought, with a higher recurrence than floods, poses more significant challenges to the economy on scales beyond local levels.

The current article is the result of research on the slogan for the year 1402, which examines the different dimensions of two fundamental keywords of curbing inflation and production growth with the approach of political socialization from the author's point of view. Political socialization is considered the most important factor in transferring the strengths, stability, and continuity of any political system. Undoubtedly, neglecting it or ignoring it will increase the indifference of the people of the society towards the fate of the country and their vulnerability to the false propaganda of the enemies. In fact, the author's concern is the optimal use and utilization of the existing capacities in various fields and resources at the country level to curb inflation and production growth, increase public satisfaction, and promote political socialization among the people of Iran. This research has studied and presented various topics in the economic field using a qualitative, descriptiveexplanatory method with the content analysis tool. As it was clear in the final evaluation of the conducted studies, the most frequent were related to the components of controlling and reducing liquidity, preventing the government from becoming too big and shrinking it, the variable of curbing inflation, the criteria of fighting against the rentier economy, staying away from it and strengthening the private sector, and the variable of production growth, which are among the most fundamental factors, which should be given more attention in the policy-making.

One of the factors affecting production and employment in one economy is investment. In economic literature, capital formation is the driving force of economic activities and economic growth patterns are based on the use of capital and labor. Despite the importance of investment in production and subsequent employment in the economy, unfortunately, in recent years, capital formation and the level of investment in the country have been very low due to several reasons such as economic instability. Therefore, it has created major problems in the field of production and employment in the country and its different regions, and it is necessary to make a codified and coherent planning to increase production and employment in the country. On the other hand, the first step for planning and making policies for the growth of production and employment is to identify the factors affecting them and to examine the effectiveness of each of these factors. The point that exists in relation to investment at the sector level (different economic sectors) is that the potential of creating production and employment (direct and indirect) of different economic sectors is different from each other. For this reason, investment in different economic sectors can have different effects on production and employment at the level of the sector as well as the whole economy. Among the reasons for the difference in the production potential and direct employment generation of the sectors, we can mention the difference in technology used in different sectors. In this way, some economic sectors have a high direct employment generation coefficient and some others have lower direct employment generation. Among the reasons for the difference in production potential and indirect employment generation of the sectors, we can also mention the difference in the communication and links between the sectors of each of the sectors with each other. Sectors that have more links with other sectors have a high potential in production and creating employment due to a certain amount of investment. Therefore, it can be said that in addition to the total amount of investment in the economy, the relative share of the sectors in the total investment, or in other words, the structure and composition of the investment is also effective in the production and employment of the entire economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investment expenditure change on changes in output and employment in different economic sectors in Iran. In this study, structural decomposition Analysis (SDA) in the input-output model between 2011 and 2016 have been used. To do this, first, the investment demand matrix in the economy was divided into two matrices, one is the investment composition (structure) matrix and the other is the total investment matrix. The investment composition matrix represents the share of each sector in the total investment in the economy and the second matrix represents the total investment in different sectors of the economy. For the calculations of this study, the input-output tables of the years 2011 and 2016 are needed. The statistical table of 2011 and 2016 was obtained from Iran Statistics Center. In the next step, both input-output tables were aggregated based on the availability of employment statistics in 18 sectors. After that, to remove price effects in research calculations, input-output tables should be converted to constant price. In this study, to eliminate the effect of price changes between 2011 and 2016, the table of 2016 was converted to the constant price of 2011 with the double deflation method. For this purpose, the price adjustment index of eighteen sectors has been used. Finally, this adjustment index was used to convert the 2016 table to the 2011 price. The results of this study showed that the increase in the level of investment (with a constant composition) has increased the total production of sectors of the economy by 2361599.59 billion rials, but the change in the structure of investment (with a constant volume) has reduced the total production 5224865 billion Rials. Changing the composition of investment has decreased 509620 people and changing the volume of investment has increased 3021509 people in the total employment of the economy. Considering the negative impact of the change in investment composition on production and employment in Iran's economy, it is suggested to prioritize investment in sectors that have higher production and employment coefficients in the economy.

Financial instability causes uncertainty and a lack of transparency in the market and decision-making processes, ultimately leading to reduced investment and economic growth. Additionally, economic shocks alter investors’ expectations. This study relied on the seasonal data from 1991/3 to 2021/6 in order to identify financial shocks and their impact on macroeconomic variables such GDP, the debt-to-GDP ratio, and financial instability. The Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model was used to analyze the data. The findings showed that fiscal policies (debt-to-GDP ratio) reduce GDP. Second, positive shocks from financial instability lead to a decrease in GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio. In the first regime, positive fiscal policy shocks (increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio) leads to an increase in financial instability, while in the second regime, positive fiscal policy shocks can reduce financial instability.

According to the economic literature, the exchange rate is one of the important channels of money transfer, so that changes in the exchange rate play an important role in creating the competitiveness and uncertainty of the economy. This can put monetary policy changes on inflation and production growth under different conditions in different conditions. In this regard, this article has investigated the role of exchange rate in the effect of money on inflation and gross domestic product growth by using the seasonal time series data of 1370-1400 and using the time-varying auto-correlation parameter method (TVP-VAR). The results of this study show that the lower the variance of the exchange rate growth, the more effective the monetary policy is in curbing inflation. On the other hand, if the average growth of the exchange rate is close to the growth of the monetary base, then the monetary policy will increase production. Also, if the exchange rate grows more than the monetary base, inflation increases and GDP growth decreases. The results of this research confirm that the growth of the monetary base more than the economic capacity leads to an increase in inflation and a decrease in production growth, and this inflationary process leads to an increase in the exchange rate. In such a structure of the economy, where high money printing is a prominent feature, the suppression of the exchange rate provides the basis for increasing the currency jump, and the currency jump is an important factor in strengthening the recessionary inflation in the economy. Therefore, the policy recommendation of the present study is to reduce the growth of the monetary base and not to manipulate the exchange rate

Economic uncertainty is a situation in which the future economic environment is difficult to predict, and there is a high degree of risk or unknown issues involved. This can be caused by a variety of factors, such as political instability, financial market volatility, or natural disasters. Economic uncertainty can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth, investment, and consumption.Economic uncertainty can have a number of negative consequences for the economy. It can lead to a decrease in investment, consumption, and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in inflation and financial market volatility. If there is a political crisis, businesses may become more cautious about making investment decisions, as they are not sure what the future holds. This can lead to a decrease in investment, which can dampen economic growth. Similarly, if there is a financial crisis, consumers may become more cautious about spending money, as they are not sure whether they will lose their jobs or their investments will lose value. This can lead to a decrease in consumption, which can also dampen economic growth.

As a basis for analysis, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was used in this study. It is a type of economic model that combines elements of both microeconomics and macroeconomics. They are used to simulate the effects of economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The DSGE model used in this study was based on Iran’s data from 1989 to 2022. The model was then used to simulate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, investment, consumption, the exchange rate, the interest rate, and inflation.Since the central bank in Iran is not independent, it is not possible to model the government and the central bank as two separate parts, but these two should be considered in the same framework. The government tries to balance its expenses in the form of current and construction expenses through the revenues from receiving a lump sum tax from the household, the sale of partnership bonds and the income from the sale of oil. In fact, it is assumed that most of the banks are owned by the government.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending, and taxes decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty. However, nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate increased in response to that shock.The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can lead to instability in the economy. This is because economic uncertainty induces a decrease in economic activity, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about making investment and spending decisions. This can lead to a decrease in GDP growth, employment, and income.In addition, economic uncertainty can increase the inflation by making the demand for goods and services exceed the supply.

Conclusions and Policy Implications:

 The findings of this study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables. Policymakers should be aware of the potential negative consequences of economic uncertainty shocks and take measures to mitigate their impacts. This could include policies that promote economic stability, such as fiscal stimulus and monetary policy. By understanding the causes and consequences of economic uncertainty, policymakers and businesses can take steps to mitigate its negative impacts and promote economic stability.

According to economic views, money can have nominal and real effects on economic variables. Meanwhile, changes in the monetary base in the economy can be considered a function of the changes in the central bank's financial assets. Central banks in countries are responsible for issuing banknotes. This bank uses foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves, claims from the government and claims from banks as a basis for issuing banknotes. The debt of the central bank is also the bills and securities in the hands of the people, the legal, additional and precautionary reserves of commercial banks. The main purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between monetary base components and production and inflation in Iran's economy. In this regard, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the time periods of 1989-2022, the relationship between the variables was estimated. The obtained results showed that the variable effect of commercial banks' debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 0.33 and 0.62, respectively, and the net effect of public sector debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 42, respectively. 0.0 and 0.57. Considering the results obtained and the importance of paying attention to the contribution of each component of the monetary base on inflation and production in the country, the central bank should pay more attention to changing the share of the components of the monetary base and be disciplined in the growth of the sectors that have a high contribution to the country's inflation.

Bank facilities are known as one of the most important ways of financing economic enterprises to increase production and employment; So that nearly 90% of financing in Iran is done by banks. However, the effects of bank facilities on macroeconomic variables are controversial due to the creation of liquidity or the deviation it can have from production. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effects of bank facilities on macroeconomic variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) during the period of 1978-2022. The results of the research showed that the effect of bank facilities on the variables of economic growth, non-governmental sector debt to banks, liquidity and capital stock was positive and insignificant on the government sector debt to banks. Therefore, since the main purpose of banking facilities is to increase production and employment, granting these facilities is expected to lead to favorable results in the economy. However, if there is not enough supervision on how to pay and spend it, it can increase the volume of money and liquidity (according to the research findings) and lead to economic instability.

The cement industry is considered one of the most important, fast-moving and influential industries in the industrial development and growth of any country. In the current research, the aim of more precisely knowing the cement market of Iran in order to achieve the goals of principle 44 of the constitution of Iran using analytical and quantitative methods, the economic situation of cement in various fields including its market structure in Iran and the world in the period of 2012-2018 has been investigated. The results obtained in Iran have shown that the cement production capacity has a growing trend and an excess of supply compared to demand. The countries of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kuwait have been the most important target markets for Iran's cement exports so far. Determining the price of cement through the commodity exchange has removed the existing challenges. The cement industry is one of the energy-intensive industries, which has the largest consumption of fuel oil (furnace oil) among the different energies compared to all industries. the production companies in order to manage costs are mainly located in the border points and close to the production raw materials and they export their products to the nearest target market. The results of Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index calculations, by information of 36 active companies and members of the stock exchange in Iran, showed that this industry has a monopolistic competition structure regardless of the ownership effect, and a multilateral monopoly structure in terms of the ownership effect. The structure of the export and import side of this industry in global markets also has a structure of monopolistic competition.

The purpose of this research is to answer the following question:What is the impact of tourists in a region on the production and employment of that region and other national economies? For this purpose, the national input-output table of 2015 published by Central Bank has been prepared based on the generalized spatial share method of SFLQ in twenty districts and for two regions of Yazd province and other national economies. Then, the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Yazd province has been investigated. The results of the current research indicate that domestic tourists in Yazd province in 2015, the production of the province increased by 989 billion Rials and the employment of the province increased by 10,101 people. In addition, the arrival of domestic tourists in Yazd province has generated 1611 billion Rials in the national economy and created 48636 jobs. Also, the results show that "other services" and "transportation" sectors have the most effective production and employment due to the arrival of domestic tourists. By identifying the location and effectiveness of tourism areas, it will be possible to implement appropriate planning, which will automatically lead to the development of other sectors of this industry.

Financial intermediation plays a significant role in the economic growth and development of a country. The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of the financial intermediation sector in production and employment, considering Iran's double-digit unemployment rate and negative economic growth rate, using the country's latest data-output table. Hence, the expanding extraction method of Diazenbacher and Lehr (2013) is used.The results of the study demonstrate that if 10% of the output of the financial intermediation sector is removed, the total output of the economy will decrease by 31188388 million Rials (31.1%). In addition, this elimination has the greatest impact on the financial intermediation and transportation sectors. Also, the 10% reduction in the supply of the financial intermediation sector will have the highest reduction in the value-added percentage on the agriculture, industry and construction sectors. In addition, the removal of 10% of the financial intermediation sector will reduce the employment of the entire economy by 49,972 people (12.3%). Considering that the agricultural and fishing sectors, industry, construction and wholesale and retail services are considered key from the perspective of production and employment, and also there is a high correlation coefficient between the decrease in output and the decrease in employment between economic sectors, it can be said that growth-oriented policies and job-creating policies are in the same direction in Iran's economy are in the same direction. Therefore, it is suggested that economic policy makers should improve employment by adopting a growth-oriented policy. In this article, the 99-sector data-output table of 2011 (which was published by the Central Bank in March 2017) has been used as a section by section. Then, the above table is aggregated into 15 sections and it has been used after separating imports

Improving economic conditions and the quality of life is part of the goal of achieving economic development. The tourism industry as a dynamic industry with distinct characteristics can share an important part of the countries' economic and production activities.In this respect, the tourism sector can play an important role as a driving force of economic development. The impact that this industry can have in different stages of economic development depends on the specific characteristics of the country. Given the complexity of tourism consumption, its economic impact is felt widely in other production sectors, contributing in each case to achieving the aims of accelerated development. The tourism industry affects the economic growth of countries in both direct and indirect ways. Tourism can contribute to the goal of the balanced development of different regions in a country because the income from it can lead to economic growth and the balanced development of different regions of a country by creating jobs, boosting economic activities and generating income. Therefore, it is important to identify the economic effects of tourism development in different regions of the country according to the local capacities. With its rich history and ancient civilization, Isfahan has many historical and religious monuments and is considered as one of the centers of tourism in the center of the country. Therefore, considering the potential of Isfahan, the question to rise is ‘how can tourism in this city affect the local economy?’ In this regard, the current research measures the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan Province on the production of the province and the national economy. To this end, the two-region input-output approach is used.

Over the past decades, introducing the concept of regional planning and applications of the input-output model in this context have led researchers and policy-makers to consider regional input-output tables more seriously. Since survey-based methods of providing input-output tables are expensive and time-consuming and regional data are poor in Iran, non-survey based methods, especially location quotient (LQ), are the most common methods for providing regional input-output tables in this country. In recent years, LQ method and its various functions have significantly evolved, and the SFLQ function has been introduced.Among the methods of spatial contribution, the industrial specific spatial contribution method of Flag SFLQ has been used to extract a provincial input-output table. This can maximize the number of spatial economy factors included in the coefficient of spatial contribution. It can also minimize statistical errors. Furthermore, the two-regional input-output table model has been used toinvestigate the effect of tourism expenditures on the production in Isfahan Province and the national economy. So, a two-region input-output table, production coefficients and spillover effects have been estimated.Considering the tourists' investment in the export of Isfahan Province and an increase in the final demand of the province (), the rise of production due to the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province is estimated with Equation:The production effect of the domestic tourism in the province is evaluated through Equation: The productive spillover effect of the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province on other national economic sectors is equal to ..This is how the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan on the production of the province and the national economy is estimated.

In the current research, the effect of domestic tourists entering Isfahan Province was studied using a two-region input-output table. Therefore, firstly, the table is estimated for Isfahan Province and the other national economies at the level of 20 sectors using the SFLQ method. Then, after calculating the multiplier coefficients of production, the effect of the arrival and expenditure of domestic tourists in Isfahan on the national economy and the economy of the province is examined. Calculation of extra-regional or spillover effects for both regions is also done in this research. The results of the research show that the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province in 2016 increased the production of this province by 4325 billion Rials. The arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan not only increased the production of the province but also had an extra-regional impact of 69 billion Rials on production. As a result, the effect of tourists entering in the province at the national level, which is obtained from its total effect on Isfahan and the other national economies, is 4394 billion Rials. In addition, based on the results of the research, "Other Services" and "Transportation" sectors have been most affected by the arrival of domestic tourists. Next to them, the "Food, Beverage and Tobacco Industries" sector is prioritized. These results are not far from expected because the arrival of tourists is mostly under the service sectors including accommodation costs, cultural and sports costs, costs of buying souvenirs, etc., and costs including those related to transportation and food.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Given the broad role of tourism in economic prosperity, the purpose of the present study is to answer the question ‘What is the impact of incoming tourism in Isfahan Province on the production of that region and other regions?’ To this end, the national input-output table of 2016, published by the Central Bank, was prepared based on the method of generalized SFLQ spatial contribution in twenty sections and for two regions of the province and other national economies. Then, the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan was examined. The results of the present study show that the entry of tourists into an area, in addition to affecting the production of the region itself, has an external impact on other national economies.The results of the research also show that the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province in 2016 increased the production of this province by 4325 billion Rials. In addition, it not only increased the production of Isfahan but also had an extra-regional impact of 69 billion Rials on production.