جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « درآمد نفت » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The purpose of this study is to investigate the situation of foreign exchange market pressure and the effect of domestic and foreign variables on it and to investigate the direct intervention of the central bank in the foreign exchange market in two periods of shortage and abundance in oil revenue. For this purpose, using the VECM and quarterly data of Iran-US economy from 1990.1 to 2017.4, exchange market pressure index and central bank direct intervention index were calculated and the manner of the direct intervention of the central bank in each season in the foreign exchange market was determined. Then, using the VAR model, the effect of domestic and foreign variables on the exchange market pressure index was investigated. The results show that firstly, the predominant situation of the foreign exchange market in the period of shortage in oil revenue is appreciation in the exchange rate, and in the period of abundance in oil revenue is depreciation in the exchange rate. Secondly, the Central Bank has tried to reduce the supply surplus created in the foreign exchange market and prevent the exchange rate from depreciating during the period of abundance in oil revenues by leaning against the wind interventions and purchasing foreign exchange. Third, in the period of abundance in oil revenue compared to the period of shortage in oil revenue, the relationship among the factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations and the exchange market pressure index has decreased. Therefore, the exchange rate is expected to jump in the long run.

This article analyses the effect of replacing oil revenue with tax revenue on Iran's institutional quality. For this purpose, good governance index that is derived from the mean of 6 good governance indices, Voice and Accountability, Political stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law and Control of Corruptionwas ,considered as indicators of the institutional governance quality. The Threshold model of Oil revenue effect on the governance quality in Iran, over the period 1996:1-2017:1 estimated by Smooth Transition Regression Model (STR). The inverse U-shaped relationship between the share of oil revenue from GDP and the good governance index  and a direct relationship between the share of tax revenue from GDP and this index are obtained. The Estimated threshold level of oil revenue impact for good governance index was equal to 2.378 percentage. The scenario of a 10% decrease in oil revenue and a 10% increase in tax revenue showed that this replacement resulted in a 11% improvement in the quality of governance in Iran. It is therefore recommended that the reform of the tax structure in Iran be put on the agenda of the government and parliament in order to meet the government's financial needs as well as the state's independence from oil. The government, through its competitiveness and accountability mechanisms, supports the establishment of civil society institutions and enhances the power of citizens to help raise tax revenue.

Poverty reduction is one of the main goals of policies pursued by governments. At the same time, economic growth and a strong belief in growth along with justice have always been of interest to policymakers. In this regard, the concept of pro poor growth focuses on the interaction between three elements: growth, poverty and inequality. On the other hand, pro poor growth is affected by several factors including macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables including government expenditures, transfers, liquidity, openness, oil revenue and external debt on pro poor growth during the period of 1982-2015. For this aim, first, we calculate pro poor growth index and then by using the time series data of desired macroeconomic variables and by ARDL model we estimate that relationship. The results show that all macroeconomic variables, except transfers and openness, have a negative and significant effect. In other words, by increasing liquidity, external debt, oil revenues and government expenditure, the share of poor people from economic growth will be less than the rich. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should change the path of economic growth by improving infrastructure and increasing social spending in the field of education and health, as well as directing liquidity towards productive and employment activities and allocating oil revenues to improve the infrastructures so the benefits of the poor will be more than the rich from economic growth, and the goal of reducing poverty and inequality would be achieved. Also, in spite of the positive effect of transfers and the openness of the economy on pro poor growth, it is suggested that the accurate identification of poor people and the targeting of subsidies, as well as the removal of barriers of free trade and membership of the WTO, along with the establishment of appropriate infrastructures and institutions, will increase the effectiveness of these macroeconomic variables.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, Bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) as an estimation of AR (4) residues for inflation is used as a substitute for inflation uncertainty measurement, and a short-term model and long-term relationships between research variables have been set. The results of short-term model and long-run pattern show that uncertainty regarding inflation, interest rate, liquidity, GDP and national income have a positive and significant effect on housing prices. Indeed, stock prices and housing finance have a negative and significant effect on Housing prices. It is noteworthy to state that there are different sensitivities to housing prices in most variables, such as household income per capita, liquidity, and stock price index in the long term and short-term; so that, according to the theory, the elasticity of house prices relative to household income per capita, the volume of money and the stock price index in the long run is more than short-term.

This study aims to analyze determinants of military expenditure in Iran, using the neoclassical demand model. For this end, the latest available data is used for a period of 47 years ending 2017. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic variables such as per capita GDP, oil revenue, non-military expenditure, real exchange rate, democracy level, war and conflict on military expenditure using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method. The results show that the oil revenue and non-military expenditure of government have positive and significant effects, and the per capita GDP variable has a negative effect on military expenditure. Democracy has a positive effect in the short run, and a negative impact on military spending in the long run. The real exchange rate has a negative impact in the short run, and a positive effect on the military expenditure in the long run. In addition, regional war as dummy variable has a positive and significant effect on military expenditure. Accordingly, the factors affecting military spending in Iran are not merely economic. Thus, political, strategic and even geographical conditions should be considered in order to assess the amount of military spending

The goal in this research is to obtain some stylize facts about the nature of monetary and fiscal policies in Iranian economy. Different economic and political factors are selected as the potential explanatory variables in monetary base (MB) and government expenditure (GE) regressions and the posterior inclusion probabilities are calculated using a Bayesian model averaging approach. The results show that oil revenue is dominant in GE variations, GE and MB are not sensitive to output variations of different sectors, GE is not sensitive to a change in inflation, MB increases when inflation rises and MB growth rate is higher in average during 2005-2010 period. Therefore, it seems that the policy makers respond to a change in output and prices are not consistent with the macroeconomics recommendations and the economic attitude of the president is more effective.

This paper presents an error-correcting macro-econometric model for the Iranian economy using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a theoretical long-run growth model developed by the authors for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analyzed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran’s financial markets.

Iran enjoys blessing of underground resourses and among them oil is an important resourse so that it’s export revenue is the most important foreign earnings and the main source of government income. Experience shows that changes in world oil price has lead to volatility in those earnings. "The foreign currency reserve account of the oil Income" with the objective of stablishing oil earnings and converting it’s revenues to productive investments, has established since the beginning of the third development plan.Therefore this article aims to evaluate the performance of this account. In this regard, beside the theoretical related issues and the other fund experiences, the performance of this account has also been investigated. The results shows that the foreign currency reserve account, not only did not succeed in achiving stated goals but also in comparision with funds in other countries has a less transpancy. So, "The national development fund (Oil Fund)" stablished in the fifth development plan, can be expected to increase the efficiency of oil earnings in Iran’ economy.

Since the first oil shock in 1973, almost the economic performance of Iran has been related to its natural resource wealth. The economy has experienced relatively lower per capita GDP growth and higher income inequality. This may support this hypothesis that natural resources seem to have been more of a curse than a blessing for Iran. This paper aims to analyze the effects of oil resource abundance on two major macroeconomic variables, economic growth and income distribution, in Iran using the data over the period 1968 - 2005. I take a time series perspective and focus on major forces of economic growth including oil resource. Moreover, the main determinants of income distribution are theoretically specified to examine the effects of oil resource. Due to the problem of data availability, and ARDL approach is employed to estimate the empirical models. Using the production function approach, the results of the study confirm that the overall long run effect of oil abundance on GDP is positive and significant but the value of the estimated coefficient is too small. The findings show that physical capital and human capital have positive and significant effects on GDP in the long run. Moreover, this study finds that oil abundance have negative and significant effect on income distribution. It means that oil revenue improves income equality in Iran. It should be point out that while the Gini coefficient is relatively higher compared to most countries, poverty level are substantially lower because of the distinguished social welfare system in the country and cohesive system of private social responsibility through a religious charitable system. However, income and human capital have a negative and significant effect on income distribution. The overall findings appeared to support this hypothesis that oil abundance is not a blessing for Iran.