رشد اقتصادی

The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the threshold effect of Islamic banking development on economic growth in the member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. This research is quantitative, in terms of practical purpose, and in terms of the nature and form of implementation, it is descriptive-correlational. Statistical data have been extracted from relevant databases such as the World Bank during the period of 2000-2019 and analyzed using the econometric model of panel smooth transition regression. The results show that in the countries of Islamic cooperation, in the first regime, the effect of Islamic banking, good governance and population on economic growth is negative and significant, and the effect of the added value of the industrial sector is positive and significant. In the second regime, Islamic banking has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, and the added value effect of the industrial sector is also a positive and significant effect. Population variable has a negative and meaningless effect. In the selected countries of Islamic cooperation, in the first regime, Islamic banking and population have a negative and significant effect, and the quality of the government has a positive and significant effect on growth. While the effect of the added value of the industrial sector is negative and meaningless. In the second regime, government spending and the added value of the industrial sector have a positive and significant effect, and Islamic banking and the population have a negative and significant effect on the intensity of economic growth. This result shows the government's attention to improving good governance indicators in the selected countries..

Financial inclusion is a concept that denotes universal access to quality, economical, and efficient financial services. In the past decade, the development of financial inclusion has been recognized and emphasized by countries as a conduit for achieving development accompanied by economic justice. In this context, this article examines the importance of developing financial inclusion as a strategy for enhancing economic justice in Iran. Specifically, methods such as microfinancing and supply chain finance that can improve public access to financial services and create equal economic opportunities are explored. Furthermore, the paper attempts to present a picture of the state of financial inclusion in Iran using selected indicators such as loan facilities, insurance penetration, and access to electronic payment tools. Despite the progress made, challenges still exist in the realm of financial inclusion that require effective policy-making. The capabilities of developing financial inclusion in promoting economic justice are also outlined, with results indicating that the development of financial inclusion in Iran is not only an economic necessity but also a social imperative that can help establish economic justice with an emphasis on Islamic concerns.

The aim of this study was to examine energy efficiency and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran.The study was conducted between 1980 and 2021.The approach used in this research has been ARDL.The data from the research was obtained from the World Bank, and the software used in this research was the avivos software with version 12 to analyze the data obtained.The findings of the study have shown that: In the long term, the effect of energy efficiency on carbon dioxide emissions is positive and meaningful, and the impact of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions is also positive and meaningful, as well as the results of the relationship of variables in the short term, and the results of its estimates have shown that variables adjust the imbalance error at a rate of 0.54 percent and tend towards the long term. Therefore, according to the results obtained, the hypotheses of the research have been approved.

Economic growth models have long grappled with fundamental questions regarding the relationship between different types of capital and real growth rates. While numerous empirical studies have demonstrated the independent effects of physical capital and social capital on the quantity and quality of economic growth, less attention has been given to the interactive effects of these investment types. This study examines the influence of social capital on the interaction between physical capital and Iran's economic growth using the Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model. The analysis covers the period 1346–1400 (1967–2021) and employs four indicators inspired by Fukuyama's framework to measure social capital. The findings indicate that the impact of physical capital on Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) varies across different levels of social capital. Periods of greater fluctuations in social capital have been associated with increased variability in the effect of physical capital on economic growth. Specifically, stronger social capital enhances the productivity of physical capital, while weaker social capital reduces its effectiveness. This study highlights the critical role of social capital in shaping the returns on physical capital investments, suggesting that strategies to stabilize and strengthen social capital could lead to more consistent and sustainable economic growth outcomes.

Globalization as a complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon has wide-ranging effects on various economic, political, social and environmental areas. In recent decades, its importance has increased as one of the most important issues in policymaking and decisions among global communities. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of globalization dimensions on economic growth and environmental quality in Iran during the period of 1971-2021 using the wavelet method. Based on the results of the globalization and economic growth index, initially, there is a relatively high dependence on high frequencies during the middle period under review, and the two indices are in the same phase (in the same direction) and economic growth is the reason for the increase globalization. Economic, political and social globalization lead to a decrease in the quality of the environment. The findings also show that in order to improve the quality of the environment and achieve sustainable development, policy makers should pay attention to reducing its negative effects on the environment in formulating globalization policies and adopt strategies to reduce CO2 emissions.

Good governance can influence economic growth and development through various pathways, including formulating appropriate strategies for economic growth, establishing institutional infrastructure, and developing economic policies for better resource allocation, reducing uncertainty and risk for economic agents, and consequently attracting long-term domestic and foreign investment. The question of what role good governance plays and the extent of its impact on growth, economic development, and poverty reduction has become not only a topic of discussion in the literature but also a significant concern for economists, policymakers, and development managers. In this research, the effects of corruption control, the rule of law, and government effectiveness as sub-indices of governance on economic growth are examined. Additionally, to enhance the model, governance variables, and the interplay between the sub-indices of governance with representatives of physical capital, human capital, and economic governance are utilized in an empirical testing model across a dataset of several countries in panel format. Data related to 51 countries was collected semi-randomly for the period from 2000 to 2020 from the World Bank. Based on the obtained results, the composite index of the rule of law, corruption control, and government effectiveness has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the aforementioned interaction components also have a positive and significant impact on economic growth

Abstract The impact of government expenditure on economic growth has always been one of the most important elements in managing a country's affairs towards achieving desirable and sustainable economic growth. Corruption is a common phenomenon in countries with bloated governments. Given the role of natural resources in shaping corruption and rent-seeking behavior, controlling corruption is essential for selected OPEC member countries, as well as the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in these countries. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the role of corruption control in the impact of government expenditure on economic growth for selected OPEC member countries during the period 2002-2022, using annual data and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Threshold Model by Hansen (1999). The findings indicate that government expenditure has a nonlinear effect on economic growth, meaning that the research model has a threshold for corruption control at a significant level of 95% with a value of -1.4622. The results show that at lower levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure positively impacts economic growth. However, at higher levels than the threshold variable (CC), government expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth. Considering the magnitude of the corruption control index in selected OPEC member countries and the study results, implementing expansionary fiscal policies by governments is not recommended. Theoretically, these findings support the theory of "grease the wheels.

This study aims to identify the key and leading sectors of Alborz Province as a tool for fostering production and employment development. The input-output table, one of the most effective tools for analyzing economic structures, has been used to determine intersectoral linkages. Due to statistical limitations at the provincial level, this research utilized the non-statistical MFLQ method and calculated the input-output table of Alborz Province based on the latest national table from 1395. The results indicate that the industrial sector has been identified as the leading sector of Alborz Province. This sector, due to its strong linkages with other economic sectors, has the most significant impact on the province's production and employment. Moreover, six subsectors, namely "paper production and paper products, printing, and reproduction of recorded media," "rubber and plastic products manufacturing," "fabricated metal products manufacturing, excluding machinery and equipment," "electrical equipment manufacturing," "motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers manufacturing," and "other manufactured products," have been identified as the leading subsectors in Alborz Province's industry. Based on these findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed: developing industrial infrastructure, providing targeted support for leading industries, and enhancing export capacities. These actions can play a significant role in improving productivity and achieving sustainable economic growth in the province.

Taxes are one of the most important sources of government revenue, which has received increasing attention in the country's economy in recent years. Important sources of taxation are VAT and payroll taxes, which play a major role in raising tax revenues. Therefore, the present paper tries to examine the effects of increasing the VAT and payroll tax rates on Iran's economic growth. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the effects of these tax policies. The main source of data is the latest Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) provided by the Central Bank of Iran. Policy analysis is done based on three scenarios: 5%, 10%, and 15% increase in VAT and payroll tax rates. The results show that increasing the VAT rate increases economic growth, but an increase in the payroll tax rate will lead to a reduction in economic growth. On the other hand, as the rate of both taxes increases, government revenue increases, but the increase in VAT revenue is far greater than payroll tax revenue. Therefore, in general, an increasing the VAT rate takes precedence over the payroll tax rate. Also, the results of sensitivity analysis indicate the high accuracy of the research model and the reliability of the results of policy analysis.

 The international exchanges of business cycles influence the domestic economy through channels. Such exchanges can arise from global shocks (e.g., in oil prices), unobserved global factors (e.g. technological advancement or regional political development), or even national shocks in a particular country. To understand the impacts of such shocks on domestic economy, it is required to model the economy in the form of a global model. The global modeling of countries and the study of the relative importance of different movement sources of macroeconomic variables in the global economy to understand the impacts of global shocks on the domestic economy of Iran have been overlooked. However, a number of studies investigated shocks in oil prices by assuming interrelations of countries, no study has been conducted on the impacts of oil price shocks on the economy of Iran by assuming interrelations of Iran with its business partners. Although, a large number of studies have explored the impacts of oil price shocks , however, the impacts of the prices of other commodities on the economy in Iran or other countries have not been studied. Therefore, the aim is to investigate the effects of global changes on Iran's macroeconomic changes, including the real exchange rate, inflation, interest rate and real production.

The present work employed the seasonal data of Iran and its business partners, including China, India, Russia, EU (i.e. Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands), Turkey, and South Korea from 2001 to 2022. The variables were selected based on  model of Pesaran et al. (2004). The internal variables of the present study included the real production , inflation , short-term interest rate , and real currency exchange rate . The weight matrix was obtained by using the separate exports and imports of the countries for 2001-2022, calculating the external variables. The relative contributions of the countries to the economy of Iran were obtained using the channel of the business sector of the economy. The weight matrixes of the countries were calculated based on the GVAR model by using the ratio of the total of each country’s exports and imports from Iran to the total of Iran’s exports and imports to introduce the relative contributions of the countries to Iranian business into the model. The global variables of the present study included global commodity price shocks, including the logarithmic prices of oil, metals, and agricultural raw materials. The data were collected from the International Monetary Fund and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

All three global prices have positive effects on the real currency exchange rate; however, the effects of oil prices are more significant, and those of basic metal prices are less significant. The positive shock effects of agricultural raw material prices on the currency exchange rate of Iran are not significant. Finally, the interest rate in Iran has positive and significant impulse responses to shocks in the prices of basic metals and agricultural raw materials and negative impulse responses to the price shocks of oil. That is, the government adopts an expansionary monetary policy (i.e. reducing the interest rate) in response to rising basic metal and agricultural raw material prices and a restrictive monetary policy (i.e. increasing the interest rate) in response to rises in the oil prices. 

Concerning the effects of increased global prices on the internal macroeconomic variables, it can be said that such price rises could increase the final cost of domestic products and raise inflation through the cost pressure channel if these commodities are seen as internal consuming items for production. This is reflected in the form of the positive impacts of global prices on internal inflation in the impulse response functions. However, these effects can be investigated from the demand perspective. Since Iran exports oil, basic metals, and agricultural raw materials, a rise in the global prices of these commodities raises the foreign revenues of Iran. As Iran has a relatively constant currency exchange structure, the foreign currency resources of Iran in the Central Bank rise, increasing liquidity and inflation. In such a case, the Central Bank reduces the currency exchange rate (i.e. the expansionary monetary policy) due to increased revenues of basic metal and agricultural raw material prices to support the domestic production of these commodities. This policy has increased the inflationary impacts of the prices of basic metals and agricultural raw materials within Iran. While oil revenues rise, the expansionary monetary policy is adopted to alleviate the initial inflationary effects. As a result, the initial positive effects of increased oil prices on inflation and domestic real production become insignificant. From this perspective, the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran does not adopt the same policy in response to increased revenues arising from increased global commodity prices. It can be said that the Central Bank of Iran adopts an inflation control policy for increased revenues of oil exports and an economic growth enhancement policy in response to the increased revenues of exporting basic metals and agricultural raw materials and increased real production in China. These policies can be explained by the relatively exogenous revenues of oil exports since oil revenues are not endogenous incomes arising from production structures in the economy. Moreover, since oil revenues are higher than other revenue sources, the inflationary effects of oil could be stronger. As a result, the Central Bank would have to adopt an inflation control policy. When global commodity prices and foreign currency revenues rise (which reduces the currency exchange rate in a floating exchange system) and induce inflation, the real exchange rate is expected to reduce. The results, however, revealed increased real exchange rate and, therefore, increased nominal currency exchange rate due to the Iran Parliament’s Managed Floating Currency Exchange Act of 2003. This act was in fact passed to avoid Dutch disease with the Iranian economy. According to the act, the currency exchange rate should be increased by the external-internal inflation difference every year. As a result, due to the inflationary effects of increased global prices and the policy structure of the Central Bank, increased foreign currency revenues and inflation weaken the Iranian currency and raise the real currency exchange rate

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in economic growth. Also, the countries' institutional environment with its influence on the legislation's quality and logistic infrastructures with trade facilitation for business owners are considered as an effective factor on the foreign investors' decisions. In this article, for investigating the role of FDI in transferring the effects of logistics performance and institutional quality on Iran's economic growth in 2007-2022, two models for FDI and per-capita growth were estimated using the FMOLS method. The results showed that logistics performance and the legal system health as institutional quality index, had a positive effect and the multiplication of them had a negative effect on FDI. The calculation of the logistics performance final effect, achieved a threshold of 0.792 for the legal system health, so that before this threshold, the increase of this index leads to increase this positive effect of logistics performance on FDI, but after passing the threshold, the effect reduces this relationship. In addition, FDI had a positive effect on economic growth. Based on Sobel, Aroyan and Goodman tests, the role of FDI in transferring the effects of logistics performance, legal system health and their cross effect on economic growth was confirmed.

According to ins titutional growth models, efficient ins titutions positively influence economic growth. Among these institutions, market institutions play a vital role by preventing market failures and enhancing resilience to economic shocks. Government integrity—specifically through reducing corruption—can further strengthen the impact of these institutions on growth. This article aims to analyze the threshold effects of market ins titutional quality on the economic growth of 19 selected lowermiddle-income developing countries, with a focus on government integrity, over the period 2014–2022. To measure market ins titutional quality, this s tudy uses an index composed of the market regulator (averaging indicators for regulations and controls in the credit and labor markets) and the markets tabilizer (measured by access to sound money). The results indicate that government integrity acts as a transition variable in the economic growth model, with a threshold of 0.017% and two identified regimes, each showing a positive impact on growth. While the market institutional quality index does not significantly impact growth in the first regime, once the government integrity index crosses the threshold into the second regime, market ins titutional quality positively affects economic growth. Additional control variables—including human capital, capital per capita, technology, and foreign trade—also demonstrate positive effects on economic growth.

Economic growth and development are important economic goals for every country and have been the focus of economic planners for a long time. Therefore, with the formation and development of growth models in economic literature, the category of investment and capital provision has been placed in the focus of researchers and policymakers as one of the basic economic issues. This research aims to examine the asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Iran by applying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed Lag (NARDL) and existing theories in this field, with seasonal data from 2001 to 2021. The research results show that the positive shock of foreign direct investment has a positive effect, and the negative shock of foreign direct investment has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. Also, the positive shock of the degree of trade openness has a positive effect, and the negative shock of the degree of trade openness has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. In addition, the results show that the balance of payments also has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long term. Finally, the results of the Wald test also show that the effects of foreign direct investment shocks and trade openness are asymmetric in both the short and long term

Economic growth is a crucial indicator of a country's development and plays a significant role in its integration into global economic exchanges and its bargaining power in international trade. This study investigates the effect of sustainable competitiveness convergence on per capita income convergence among the top 50 science-producing countries between 2014 and 2023, using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The findings reveal a positive and significant relationship between the convergence of natural capital, intellectual capital, resource efficiency, and social capital, and the convergence of per capita income. Governments have a dual responsibility: they must direct resources toward wealth generation while also converting non-renewable natural resources into renewable ones to achieve sustainable growth and development. Additionally, by fostering and motivating human capital, governments can enhance innovation and close the technology gap with leading countries in sustainable competitiveness. Two estimation cases were analyzed. The first case examined the interactive effect of governance on natural capital, while the second focused on the interactive impact of governance on intellectual capital. In both instances, these interactive effects were found to have a positive and significant influence on per capita income convergence. Given the critical importance of economic growth and per capita income, policymakers are encouraged to create a conducive environment for attracting intellectual capital into production activities by developing new markets for production factors. Moreover, it is expected that leaders will enhance the competitiveness index, particularly in terms of social capital, and facilitate economic growth by improving people’s livelihood security and well-being, promoting accountability and responsibility, and striving for equal opportunities.

Financial inclusion, which refers to the access of individuals, firms, and businesses to quality and affordable financial products and services responsibly and sustainably, plays an important role in enhancing the living standards of low-income households, increasing opportunities for the growth and development of small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing poverty and inequality, and improving financial stability. Various factors, including competition in the banking industry and economic growth, influence financial inclusion. This article addresses the critical significance of accurate and scientific estimation of the impact of these factors on financial inclusion. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL-PMG) model is the econometric method employed, and the data utilized are associated with ECO member countries from 2004 to 2020. The results indicate that economic growth enhances the demand for financial services, resulting in the emergence of new financial institutions and markets to meet this increasing demand. Additionally, the results suggest that the heightened competition in the banking sector considerably enhances financial inclusion. The market power in the financial industry intends to restrict the supply of loans and raise interest rates, exacerbating the cost of financing for firms. As a result of increased competition, banks with lower profit margins are compelled to implement a customer-centric approach. Finally, the results suggest that enhancing competition in the banking industry and reducing market influence are critical strategies for enhancing financial inclusion in the country's banking system.

This study examines the impact of social capital and economic growth on financial development in Iran from a demand leadership perspective. Utilizing statistical data from 1996 to 2020, the study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Financial development is measured as a weighted average of five indicators: (1) the ratio of banknotes and coins held by the public to the total money supply (FD1), (2) the ratio of liquidity to GDP (FD2), (3) the ratio of banking system claims on the private sector to total banking system credit (FD3), (4) the ratio of private sector debt to the banking system relative to GDP (FD4), and (5) the ratio of total traded shares' value to GDP (FD5). Additionally, principal component analysis combines six indicators of social capital, including life expectancy, income equality, political stability, absence of violence, government integrity, and rule of law. The study estimates both short-term and long-term relationships among these variables and employs a band-edge test to verify the existence of long-term relationships. The results indicate that, both in the short term and long term, social capital, economic growth, and foreign trade volume have a positive and significant influence on financial development, while the unemployment rate has a negative and significant effect. Consequently, the findings demonstrate consistency between short-term and long-term results.

Financial crises can rapidly affect the real sector of the economy, causing significant damage. The existing literature highlights the crucial role of a country's vulnerability in undermining the stability of the financial sector. This study investigates the effect of country risk on financial fragility in selected countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from 2000 to 2021 using the vector autoregression (VAR) method for panel data. The findings reveal that economic growth, economic structure, and economic freedom negatively impact financial fragility, whereas inflation rates, real interest rates, and country risk positively impact it. Country risk generates uncertainty, diminishes the security of the political, economic, and financial environment, and consequently reduces investment, leading to decreased economic growth and increased financial fragility. Despite its significance, the effect of country risk on financial fragility remains largely understudied. The results of this study have important implications: policymakers should focus on reducing country risk to foster a more stable political, economic, and financial environment.

The relationship between population growth and economic growth is among the important topics in population economics studies. Using the analytical and econometric methods, this article seeks to examine the relationship between these two variables in the Islamic economic approach applied to the Iranian economy. Based on the research findings, increasing the Muslim population is inherently desirable in Islam, and reducing the population rate in Islamic societies is considered reprehensible. Economic growth is also desirable from the perspective of Islam and can lead to happiness and good life. Within this framework, population growth provides the conditions for economic growth. An analysis of Iranian economic data from 1989 to 2014 using the linear least squares (OLS) method shows that population growth has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Also, variables such as net exports, private consumption, and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. In the early stages, the increase in population growth was directly associated with economic growth, but in the short term, economic growth decreased due to the baby boom of the 1960s and the incomplete entry of the population into the cycle of economic activity. However, in the long term, the human resources and capacities have had a positive effect providing the basis for the country's economic growth.

Military expenditure is a key variable in various economic growth models, and its effects can vary depending on different conditions. However, there is no general consensus regarding the relationship between defense spending, economic growth, and other macroeconomic variables. Considering the significance role of defense expenditures for ensuring of a nation's security, it is essential to examine its impact on various economic sectors. This study aims to explore the relationship between defense expenditures and macroeconomic variables in Iran over the period 1980-2022, using the vector autoregression (VAR) technique and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The analysis examines the relationship between defense spending and several key economic variables, including economic growth, inflation, trade balance, employment, and imports. The results obtained from the causality test point towards a bi-directional causality between defense spending and economic growth, whilst, on the other hand, a uni-directional causality exists from defense spending to employment. The study did not find a causal relationship between defense expenditure and trade balance, inflation, or imports. Additionally, the reaction functions indicate that a positive shock in military spending can lead to an increase in economic growth, imports, and employment, whilst causing a decrease in inflation and trade balance in subsequent periods.