رویکرد اتورگرسیو با وقفه توزیعی

The currency crisis is a critical issue faced by many countries, imposing significant pressure on their currency markets. This research investigates the impact of sanctions on currency market pressure in Iran and Russia using data spanning from 2000 to 2023 sourced from central banks. Employing the ARDL method, the study examines how sanctions influence exchange market pressure. For Russia, the short-term analysis reveals that sanctions initially negatively impact the foreign exchange market pressure. However, in the long term, the error correction results suggest that this negative effect diminishes in significance. Furthermore, economic growth and government spending both exert positive and significant effects on exchange market pressure in the short term. In Iran, the ARDL findings indicate a significant negative impact of sanctions on exchange market pressure. Economic growth, both in the short and long term, and government spending also exhibit negative and significant effects on the exchange market pressure. Interestingly, similar to Russia, the long-term impact of sanctions on Iran's economy appears not to be significant. Comparing the models for Iran and Russia, both countries experience a short-term negative and significant effect of sanctions on exchange market pressure. However, the long-term effects differ, with the significance of sanctions diminishing over time in both economies.

Government borrowing is considered a means of financing the government, which first appeared in 1688 in Britain and then in America, Belgium, Denmark, etc. Receiving loans and credit through domestic banks and institutions as well as through international monetary institutions is one of the things that will create debt for governments in the future. Today, government debt is a global phenomenon that most countries in the world face. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of economic growth and government budget deficit on the accumulation of government debt in Iran's economy using the Lasso and ARDL approach for the period 1979-2023. The results of the research through the Lasso approach showed that economic growth, foreign investment, government budget deficit, trade openness, real interest rate and inflation variables were chosen as the determinants of accumulation of the government's debt. The results of the model estimation through the ARDL approach showed that in the long term, the trade openness variable had a positive and significant effect on the accumulation of government debt. Also, in the long term, economic growth and the real interest rate variables had a negative and significant effect on the dependent variable. The results of the model estimation of the dynamics of the short-term indicated the significance of the variables of trade openness, economic growth, real interest rate and budget deficit . Similar to the long-term period, trade openness had a positive and large effect of the accumulation of the government debt in the short-term period. Although the positive effect of the budget deficit was not significant, the negative effect of the interest rate on the reduction of government debt was significant in both the long-term and short-term periods.