سیاست مالی

Nowadays, achieving a balance between economic development goals and environmental protection has become one of the main priorities for policymakers. Using the E-DSGE model, this study introduces a new rule for fiscal and monetary policies and carbon taxation, aiming to regulate and stabilize carbon emission levels along with ensuring economic growth. It analyzes the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies and environmental policies. The findings indicate that while all the mentioned policies can bring carbon emissions close to the target level, their underlying mechanisms differ. Fiscal and monetary policies impact emissions by changing production levels, while environmental policies affect emissions by altering firms' spending on pollution reduction. In the presence of positive productivity shocks, fiscal policy is more effective in adjusting tax revenues, monetary policy in regulating prices, and environmental policy in modifying carbon emission intensity

Governments pursue macroeconomic objectives such as stabilizing the economy by employing fiscal policy tools. However, fiscal sustainability is obligatory for achieving economic stability. This research, utilizing linear and nonlinear fiscal reaction functions, including quadratic and cubic, time-varying parameter and Markov-switching fiscal regime change functions, measures the fiscal sustainability of the Iranian government and its determinants in the period 1970-2021. Based on the findings of this research, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in linear and nonlinear models is negative and insignificant, but in the model with control variables, it is negative and strongly significant. Hence, the model with control variables results in the unsustainability of Iran's fiscal policy. The results of Markov-switching fiscal regime change model reveals the existence of two fiscal regimes in Iran's fiscal policy. An unsustainable fiscal regime, in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is negative and significant, and a sustainable fiscal regime in which the reaction of the primary budget balance to the public debt is positive but insignificant. Also, the results of the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model demonstrates that the average filtered and smoothed transmission probabilities of remaining in unsustainable fiscal regime is higher than that of sustainable fiscal regime, which indicates that Iran's fiscal policy has been unsustainable. Based on the results of the time-varying parameter model, the reaction of the primary budget balance to the debt expansion has been negative and diminishing, therefore, debt reduction has not been the priority of governments in Iran, and as a result, Iran's fiscal policy has been proceeding in the unsustainable direction.

 A balanced government budget plays a decisive role in the stability of the macroeconomics, and the continuous budget deficit puts the stability of the economy at risk. A budget deficit transpires when the expansion in government expenditures exceeds the growth in government revenue. On the other hand, one of the reasons for the government debt enlargement is the continuous budget deficit. Permanent budget deficit has harmful effects on the economy. Therefore, economists recommend that the government should prevent excessive increase in debt by maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is sustainable when the government reacts to the debt swelling by creating an adequate budget surplus. On the contrary, unsustainable fiscal policy causes crises such as suboptimal allocation of resources, failure in financial markets and high inflation rates. Iran's economy has always been struggling with the permanent budget deficit and high debt stocks. The major motive for this is the dependence of the Iranian government's revenues on the sale of crude oil and its products, because with the decrease in oil revenues, the government resorted to borrowing to compensate for its budget deficit, resulting in debt accretion. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the perspective of fiscal sustainability in Iran. The objective of this research is to assess Iran's government fiscal sustainability and its influential factors by employing annual data of Iran's economy from 1971 to 2022 and by utilizing constant parameter fiscal reaction functions including linear and non-linear models, time-varying parameter fiscal reaction function, Markov-switching fiscal regime change model and fiscal reaction function including control variables.

The existing literature about fiscal sustainability in Iran, has mainly examined fiscal sustainability in the framework of constant parameter linear fiscal reaction function. This research assesses different models of fiscal reaction function, such as constant parameter linear and non-linear models, time-varying parameter models and Markov-switching fiscal regime change models regarding Iran's fiscal sustainability. It also evaluates the dominant variables affecting Iran's fiscal sustainability.

In this research, firstly, the Iran's government fiscal sustainability is tested through the constant parameter linear and non-linear fiscal reaction functions, and to identify the variables affecting fiscal sustainability, the model including control variables is utilized. Then the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model and the time-varying parameter fiscal reaction function are estimated. Among the constant parameter linear and non-linear models, only the linear model including control variables has a significant debt-to-GDP ratio coefficient, which its sign is negative. Hence, it indicates that the fiscal policy implemented in Iran is unsustainable. The Markov-Switching fiscal regime change model shows the existence of two fiscal regimes, one unsustainable fiscal rgime where the reaction of the primary budget balance to public debt is significant and negative and one sustainable fiscal regime where the reaction of the primary budget balance to public debt is insignificant and positive. Also, the results show that the expected duration of the unsustainable fiscal regime is longer than the expected duration of the sustainable fiscal regime. The results of the time-varying parameter model show that the trend of the smoothed changes of the time-varying parameter is downward during the time, therefore, Iran's fiscal policy has proceeded in an unsustainable direction.

The results of the model including the control variables and the time-varying parameter model and the Markov-switching fiscal regime change model show that Iran's fiscal policy is unsustainable. Also, on the basis of this research findings, the variables of the output gap, the government revenue to GDP ratio and exchange rate fluctuation have a positive impact, and the variables of the government real cyclical expenditure and the old population ratio have a negative impact on the fiscal sustainability in Iran. Based on the results of this research, the government debt reduction has not been the priority of the governments in Iran. This has caused unsustainable fiscal policy which in turn, made the Iranian economy more and more vulnerable with regard to external shocks. While developing revenue sources and reducing dependence on oil revenues, the government should reduce its borrowing and therefore decrease the public debt and take steps towards sustainable fiscal policy to help achieving economic stability and sustainable growth in the long-term

This study examines the role of fiscal policymakers, monetary policymakers, and currency speculators in macroeconomic stability, focusing on Iran. Using a game-theoretic approach, it compares non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, where the government and central bank adopt contractionary policies and speculators remain passive, with a semi-cooperative coalition aimed at reducing speculator profits and minimizing losses for policymakers. The findings reveal that collaboration among players in a coalition achieves higher social welfare and better economic outcomes than non-cooperative strategies.

Macroeconomic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentives in the production cycle (Mixed data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS))Abstract:In this study, the macro-economic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentive in the production cycle were investigated using the combined data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS) for different seasonal and annual time frames. In the estimated model, the annual data of the effective tax rate, the combined index of economic prosperity, current and construction expenditures of the government, and the seasonal data of the oil price and exchange rate, the volume of liquidity and the production index for the years 1370-1400 have been used. according to the model estimation results; Uncertainty of current and construction expenditures of the government, volume of liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations and crude oil price fluctuations have a positive effect and increasing economic security has a negative effect on the production gap. Fluctuations in exchange rates lead to an increase in the amount of external debt of manufacturing companies, and an increase in debt will lead to a lack of liquidity in general, which in general, lack of liquidity of economic enterprises has a negative effect on the production cycle. In general, it can be said that with the increase in volatility in Iran's economic situation, uncertainty in macro-financial and currency policies, oil price fluctuations and many other factors, the volatility in the Iranian market has increased and these factors are the reason for the decrease in production.Keywords: fiscal policy, tax incentive, production cycle, mixed data with different frequency.

The belief that innovation is a crucial factor in driving economic growth has led governments worldwide to increase investment in research and development (R&D). Many countries intervene in the R&D process of the private sector by utilizing policy tools such as tax credits, subsidies, direct financing, and research and development cost subsidies. Data shows a significant rise in the use of tax incentives in recent years. In Iran, there has been a particular interest in implementing tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies and providing tax credits for all firms.
Empirically, the existing literature in this field is still underdeveloped, particularly in the context of developing countries. This report aims to contribute to the existing knowledge by evaluating the impact of tax exemptions on R&D expenditures in Iran as a developing country.

To assess the effect of tax exemptions, we are interested in the R&D intensity index, which represents the ratio of R&D expenditures to GDP at the national level and the ratio of R&D costs to company income at the company level. The variable in question is a ratio between 0 and 1, like many other economic variables such as participation rates, market shares, debt-to-finance ratios, etc. The limited nature of such variables - and in some cases the large and significant accumulation of data at one or both limits - leads to limitations in estimates and inferences, and its economic modeling should be done with special approaches. In particular, the usual use of linear models is not a very accurate and correct method because it does not guarantee that the values predicted by these estimates are in the range of 0 and 1. In recent years, this concern has led researchers to focus on functional forms resulting from such data and develop models called Fractional Regression Models (FRMs).
In the model, the dependent variable is the share of a company's current R&D costs relative to total costs, which serves as a proxy for R&D intensity. The explanatory variables include the following:Researchers: The number of researchers in the company, logged.
Size: The sum of current and capital expenses of the company, used as an index of the size of the company in logarithmic form.
Avalibility of External Finance: For each company which used any financial resources rather than its internal resources, the value of this variable is 1, and in cases where the financing is completely internal, it is considered as 0.
The level of knowledge-based development (KBEDev): A variable based on previous studies, ranging from 1 (lowest level) to 3 (highest level).
Tax incentive: For those companies subject to this exemption, the variable amount is 1, and for the rest, it is 0.
Technology Intensity (Tech Level): According to the industry in which companies operate and using the categories used for technology leveling in the two leading organizations in this field, UNCTAD and OECD, number 3 represents the high level, number 2 represents the medium level, and number 1 represents the low level.

Using a fractional logistic regression approach on the data of 2,678 knowledge-based and industrial companies collected in 2020, the effects of tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies have been evaluated. The results of this article confirm the positive and significant effects of this exemption on research and development costs of companies. At the same time, it is indicated that, compared to other variables in the model, the presence of researchers, the level of knowledge-based development of the location of the company, and the opportunity for access to external financial resources have had a greater effect on the share of research and development expenses. However, these incentives have been more effective than the company's technology level. Additionally, the size of the company has a significant negative relationship with the interest ratio.

While our study supports the use of tax incentives, it is crucial to consider the broader economic landscape. Our findings highlight the importance of human resources and external funding. To effectively support knowledge-based companies and to create a more R&D-intensive country, it is not enough to solely provide tax exemptions for firms. However, mechanisms must be in place to foster reaching much more qualified human resources and to a greater extent finance. Financial incentives should be utilized in a manner that minimizes costs and maximizes economic growth and productivity. Future research can explore how to optimize the use of these tools, offering valuable insights to policymakers

According to the important role of governments in economic development and the interrelationships between government's fiscal policies with economic growth and inflation rate, especially in developing countries such as Iran, and based on previous theoretical studies, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationships between fiscal policies (tax revenues and government expenditures) with economic growth and inflation rate in the provinces of Iran during 2009-2021 applying Domitrescu-Horlin causality test. The results indicate that there is a two-way causality between taxes and government expenditures, a two-way causality between taxes and economic growth, no causality between government expenditures and economic growth, a one-way causality from inflation rate to taxes, a two-way causality between government expenditures and inflation, and a one-way causality from inflation to economic growth. Based on the results, it is suggested that the government create a suitable and efficient tax system and also make changes in its expenditures in order to help reduce the inflation rate and affect the budget deficit.

Considering the two characteristics of real estate, including consumption and capital characteristics, the total demand of the housing sector can be divided into consumer and investment demand. Different policies can have different effects on each component of housing demand. In this study, using the iran's seasonal data of 1380-1400 and the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, the effects of monetary and financial policy as well as the oil price shock on housing demand were investigated. The results show that investment demand can explain housing price fluctuations better than consumer demand. For example, while expansionary fiscal policy increases both types of consumption and investment demands; Contractionary financial policy causes a decrease in consumer demand and an increase in capital demand for housing. When the economy is booming, the housing market fluctuates. As the fluctuations in the housing market increase, the share of investment in housing increases, and this indicates that housing applicants tend to give more weight to the investment value than the value. Provide consumption that may cause the formation of a housing bubble. In the end, some reasonable policy proposals are presented in the field of price control.

Validity of a policy to achieve the goal of sustainability is an important issue. Stability of expectations through monetary policy is successful when financial policies do not make expectations unstable. The coordination between monetary and financial policies is done at two different levels, firstly in the short term and in accordance with the conventional performance of monetary and financial policies, and secondly regarding the long-term effects of macroeconomics, which can affect the coordination of unadjusted policies. In the short term, coordination is a policy to achieve financial goals, including price stability. The main focus should be placed on monetary policies and government debt management. In the long term, the issue of policy coordination is adjusted based on how to design the structure of monetary and financial policies, which leads to maintaining the path of economic growth in a balanced way; that is, it controls inflation and provides financial conditions for sustainable growth. This indicates that the financial deficit should be limited to such an extent that the capital market can operate without disturbing the allocation of resources in the economy and bringing the need for the central bank. Considering the continuous budget deficit, one of the most important economic challenges in Iran is the dependence of the government budget on oil, because the more the dependence of the government budget on oil revenues and its influence on oil impulses, the more fluctuations in the demand of the entire economy. The importance of the mentioned issue stems from the fact that increasing government spending has been one of the ways to achieve greater economic growth in recent decades, but this has caused governments to face the problem of continuous budget deficits. On the one hand, the government's income has serious limitations due to the weakness of the tax system and some economic structural problems. On the other hand, the adoption of incorrect financial policies and lack of proper planning along with population growth lead to an increase in demand for public goods such as education and health. This has led to the increasing growth of government expenditures. The limitation of the government's resources and incomes causes a budget deficit, making governments borrow from the central bank to cover this deficit. The monetary authorities' reaction to this issue can be effective in the stability of economic policies.

Monetary and financial policies have always been of interest to economists as tools to achieve macroeconomic goals. Of course, there have been fluctuations in focusing on the positive role of each of the economic policies in stabilizing economic fluctuations. The main goal of this research was to examine the relationship and coordination between monetary and financial policies in Iran's economy. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1989-2022 was used based on the frequency of the seasonal data. In order to model the interaction and relationship between monetary and financial policies in Iran, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was used.

Based on the results, the shock of monetary policies initially has a very decreasing effect on economic growth and consumption. From the fourth period onwards, however, the impact of monetary policy shocks on these two variables is positive. This can be due to the existence of unsupported monetary policies in the country and the resulting increase in inflation, which has a negative impact on consumption and economic growth. As a result of the monetary policy shock, the net investment increases sharply at first and reaches a maximum in the fourth period and then decreases with a downward trend. Therefore, due to the effects of inflation, monetary policies lead to the desire of households and companies to increase investment. In the case of government spending, the monetary policy shock increased the government spending sharply at first and, after six periods, it went through a relatively downward trend with a gentle trend. According to the results, financial policy shocks have first led to an increase in consumption and economic growth and finally to a decrease. As a result of the financial policy shock, the net investment decreases sharply until the sixth period and reaches zero. After that, it increases mildly. Also, in response to the financial policy shock, there is an increase in the inflation rate and the amount of money in response to the financial policy shock. This indicates the supremacy of financial policy over monetary policy in the country.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

In Iran, monetary and financial policies are always implemented by policymakers with the aim of creating economic growth and stability. But, unfortunately, there is always the issue of deviation from the goals and the undesirable and negative welfare and economic effects of applying such policies. It seems that most of these issues are due to paying attention to monetary and financial goals separately rather than dealing with the interactions of those policies and, most importantly, recognizing the goal of preparing executive programs for these two areas. On the other hand, the dominance of financial policy and lack of attention to monetary and financial policy interactions have limited the power of the central bank to use monetary instruments to control inflation. It is necessary to study the interaction of monetary and financial policies, both from the point of view of economic considerations and with regard to the requirements of revising the implementation of those policies in terms of the negative effects on the economy caused by the implementation of wrong policies in the economy of Iran. According to the results, it is suggested to control the inflation rate and money growth in the country with the financial discipline of the government and the reduction of financing the government expenses from the area of money creation. In the end, non-violation of the announced policies by the policy makers will be the most important factor in reducing the financial indiscipline of the government.

The current study uses TVP-FAVAR models to investigate the effect of monetary and financial shocks on inflation, with a focus on the intermediary role of banks, from 1370-1 to 2018-4. Main variables influencing inflation are considered to be money volume, current expenditures, construction expenditures, taxes, and the bank intermediation index. The rate of return variable of the speculative sector is considered as an unobservable and hidden variable. The findings show that not only the bank intermediation index, but also the variables of liquidity, construction expenses, and current expenses, have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and that each standard deviation of change in these variables between one and three years has an effect on the country's inflation stability and permanence. Based on the model's findings, policies such as floating the bank interest rate and credit indexing can be implemented, as can supply-side policies such as increasing the level of work culture, increasing human resource productivity, and changing the labor market's composition. The annual anchoring of government spending in four-year periods, as well as the adoption of policies that reduce the uncertainty of inflation, can be effective in adjusting the inflation rate for the ratio of budget deficit or government debt to GDP.

According to some common views in macroeconomics, fiscal policy can be effective in stabilizing the economy and achieving macroeconomic goals. The past few decades have seen the widespread use of monetary policy tools for this purpose. Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a renewed interest in using fiscal policy as a stabilizing tool. The macroeconomic implications of government expenditures and revenues and their effects on the overall economic structure have been studied by various empirical methods in several countries as well as in Iran. In this paper, far from previous studies, the issue has been implemented using Bayesian structural vector autoregression (B-SVAR). Because this method takes the previous information into account, the B-SVAR method is able to make more accurate estimates than other VAR models. Empirical findings show that government spending and income (income tax) have a limited effect on macroeconomic variables, including GDP, inflation, private sector consumption, income tax and total investment, and in the housing sector. Also, the impact of the private sector on production fluctuations in this model was not confirmed.

One of the most important challenges of societies in the last few decades is the destructive and repeated human activities to destroy the environment. The ecological footprint is the latest index measuring the extent of individuals’ influence and engagement in addressing the issue of climate change as well as their negative impact on the environment. The economic policies adopted by societies have a significant effect on the process of ecological footprint. Monetary and Fiscal Policies are among the most important policies that, in addition to affecting the productive and economic activities of society, also affect the environment. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary and Fiscal policies on the ecological footprint in Iran during the period from 1980 to 2021 and using the structural vector autoregression method. “Liquidity and the government’s final consumption expenditures have been employed as monetary and fiscal policy tools, while economic growth, urbanization, and foreign direct investment have been utilized as control variables.” The results of this research show that foreign direct investment and urbanization have a negative and significant impact on the ecological footprint. Also, economic growth, monetary policy, Fiscal policy and the dependent variable itself have a positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint and lead to an increase in the ecological footprint during the mentioned time period. On the other hand, fiscal policy impulses in the long term have resulted in a rise in environmental degradation in Iran. The results of variance analysis in the 10th period show that monetary policy explains 6.70% and Fiscal policy 24.06% of changes in the dependent variable.

The public sector and its role in the implementation of financial policies for Iran are of special importance for two reasons. On the one hand, the main source of government income is the foreign currency income from oil exports, which is strongly affected by international shocks, and on the other hand, due to the prominent role of the government in Iran's economy, the government's financial behavior in the form of annual budgeting and policies Government finance, like tax collection, has a great impact on other productive sectors. Therefore, it is necessary to follow the implementation of financial policies with special care. In this regard, tax is one of the most stable government revenues and can be used as a tool to implement social justice and encourage investment. Tax collection in an optimal way can have an effect on economic indicators in addition to its positive effects. The purpose of this article is to determine the effective factors on the optimal tax rate in Iran's economy during the period of 1981-2016 with the help of the optimal control method. The results of the research show that the consumption ratio of the private sector to the public sector and the depreciation rate have a negative effect, the ratio of public sector investment to the private sector, capital stock, technical progress coefficient, the elasticity of production compared to the investment of the public and private sectors have a positive effect on the optimal tax rate. are Among the mentioned factors, the ratio of private sector consumption to the public sector and the elasticity of production compared to private sector investment have the greatest impact on the optimal tax rate. Depending on the value of the mentioned variables, the optimal tax rate in the economy is between 22.88 and 25.5 percent. The average tax rate in the period under review was about 14% at constant prices. One of the reasons for the low tax rate is the existence of tax exemptions, the exclusion of taxes on some activities, and the dependence of the government budget on oil. Therefore, for the optimization of taxation in the economy, it is necessary to expand the tax bases, prevent tax evasion in the economy, collect taxes in a targeted manner from activities, reduce the government budget deficit, especially the current budget, remove dependence on oil revenues, and downsize and reduce the administration of the government. The attention of policy makers.

one of the most important experience of the crisis of 2008 was the ineffectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policies to get out of the recession due to the high debt of the countries. Therefore most of the countries started strengthening their economy. Now,  one of the important questions in the field of public sector economy is how to achieve economic growth by reducing the debt ratio. The present study was developed in order to answer this question for a hypothetical economy with natural oil revenues. For this purpose, control theory has been used and simulations have been made for a closed economy in a ten year period. The results of the simulation show that it is possible to simultaneously target the two issues of growth and debt with a consolidated fiscal policy.  In this proposed policy, a combination of government spending and tax rate, as control variables, is obtained, which leads us to the predetermined goals in economic growth and government debt ratio, as state variables, in each period. finally, oil modeling and control rules extracted in this study make fiscal stabilization less expensive for governments.

Despite the increasing debate around the role of alternative renewable sources of energy such as solar and nuclear power, oil still has a central role for a vast portion of the world’s countries. Therefore, oil price is one of the key prices in the international economy, and its effects and mechanisms on macroeconomic variables has been an important topic of economic research. In oil-exporting countries, oil price fluctuations have implications for all macroeconomic and prudential policies but due to the government ownership of natural resources, fiscal policy is especially important and can be a main mechanism for transferring these fluctuations to the economy. In this regard, this study aims to analyze the complex relationships and dynamic co-movements between international oil price movements and macroeconomic variables, emphasizing the role of fiscal policy in a time-frequency approach in the years 1978-2020. For this purpose, we implement two novel wavelet analysis techniques, namely, multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC), which are used to explore the real relationship between variables. The use of the wavelet tool is superior to traditional tools because it allows the analyst to determine how the series interact at different frequencies and how they evolve over time. To the best of our knowledge, the current is the first paper to implement the wavelet framework to analyze the effects of oil price dynamics on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Therefore, this study makes a modest contribution to the empirical literature by unveiling the main transmission mechanism of oil prices at different time horizons.

The econometrics techniques that have been previously used are focused on time domain analysis. This analysis may return incomplete and ambiguous information on the relationship between economic variables. Therefore, this study is focused on time and frequency domain analysis using the wavelet transformation approach that has been left out for the relationship dynamics among these variables.The origin of wavelets can be traced back to Fourier analysis, which is the foundation of modern time-frequency analysis. Fourier transform, examine the periodicity of phenomena by assuming that they are stationary in time. But most economic and financial time series exhibit quite complicated patterns over time. The wavelet transform approach was introduced to overcome the limitations of the Fourier transform. In fact, if the frequency components are not stationary traditional spectral tools may miss such frequency components. The wavelet analyses do not follow the initial checks to observe if the series have unit root or not. The superior feature of the wavelet analysis is related to its flexibility in monitoring several non-stationary signals.Wavelet Analysis is a method that allows simultaneous decomposition of original time series according to both time and frequency domains. This is very important for economics and finance, as many of the variables in this field can operate and interact differently on dissimilar time scales. So, in this paper, we used two innovative wavelet approaches to study and compare the interdependence between oil prices, non-oil GDP, public expenditure, and trade balance. This approach implements the estimation of the spectral features of time series as a function of time, displaying how the various periodic components of time series vary through time. To check the relevance of the coherence of multiple independents on a dependent one, we use multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), a similar method to the multiple correlations. The partial correlation is one of the tools that can be used in a simple correlation concept. In the wavelet, the researchers can attain this using partial wavelet coherence (PWC). This approach is able to identify the partial wavelet coherence between the two-time series y and x1 after eliminating the influence of the third time series x2. Hence, we use partial wavelet coherence to identify the wavelet coherence between oil prices and government expenditure when canceling out the effect of non-oil GDP and trade balance.

The results of the wavelet analysis show that there is a strong coherence between oil prices and the macroeconomic variables at different frequencies. multiple wavelet coherence, shows a high coherency between the four variables in the short-run (1-4 years) and in the long-run horizons (8-16 years). In fact, multiple wavelet coherence between variables shows that there is always a relationship between variables over time and different scales with different coefficients.Partial wavelet coherence between oil and non-oil GDP has been significant by removing the effects of government expenditure in the short term during the years 1988 to 1992 and also  2000 to 2012. In the scale of 6 to 8 years from 2010, the partial coherence shows an approximate value of 0.6, which is maintained at this frequency until the end of the period. This issue shows the greater correlation between oil price fluctuations and non-oil GDP by removing the effects of fiscal policy fluctuations in these years. Also, by removing theeffects of the trade balance, there is a partial wavelet coherence between the pairs of oil price and non-oil GDP from 1996 to 2012 in the short-term time horizon.The partial wavelet coherence between oil price and trade balance by removing the effect of fiscal policy and also by removing the effect of non-oil GDP indicates a limited relationship between the pair of oil price and trade balance by removing the effects of other two variables during the study period. In both cases, the relationship between the two variables is limited to the early years of the study period, and there is no independent relationship in other areas.The results of the partial wavelet coherence between oil price and government expenditure showed that by removing the effect of non-oil GDP, the highest correlation of the variable occurred in the short-term and medium-term region. In the short-term time horizon, during the years 1979 to 1992, a strong wavelet coherence can be seen between the oil prices and government expenditure, which was repeated during the years 2010 to 2011. Also, by keeping the variable effects of the trade balance constant until the end of the 80s, there is a co-movement between oil price and government expenditure independent of the effects of the trade balance. This net correlation between the two variables well indicates the role of fiscal policy in the transmission of oil price fluctuations in multiple time scales.

The most important effective factor in increasing oil price fluctuations is the unforeseen and increasing risks related to oil and its related industries. Since the world has seen rapid and successive developments in recent years (including the spread of disease, war, etc.), severe fluctuations have been observed in the global oil markets during these years. Therefore, in a fluctuating environment, oil prices have forced governments and policymakers to formulate policies to deal with the uncertainty of oil prices. To implement such policies, it will be useful to examine the relationship between oil price dynamics and its transmission mechanisms in the economy. In this regard, the present article analyzes the relationship between oil price dynamics and macroeconomic variables, emphasizing the role of fiscal policy in Iran through time-frequency analysis and the new approach of multiple and partial wavelet coherence.The results of multiple wavelet coherence show the co-movement between oil price and other variables of the model in different time scales. In such a way that this co-movement shows the greatest intensity in short and long-time horizons. Also, the partial wavelet correlation results between the variables of oil price and non-oil GDP as well as government expenditures showed that by removing the effects of other variables, the co-movement between the pair of variables can still be observed in all time horizons. While regarding the trade balance, this net relationship with oil price was not observed.In general, based on the partial wavelet coherence results, it can be shown that fiscal policy and economic growth are the main channels of oil price fluctuations transmission in this period, which are in line with the studies of Hossein et al. (2008) and El Anshasi (2008) who showed that Fiscal policies are the main propagation mechanism that transmits the oil price shocks to the economy.Therefore, the reduction of oil price correlation by removing the effects of fiscal policy and business cycles shows the importance of the channel of fiscal policy and GDP in the transmission of oil price fluctuations. Therefore, it is recommended that the policymakers who adjust various economic stabilization schemes for greater stability, while paying attention to the main channels of oil financial resources flowing into the economy, should consider different frequency bands as well.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the different effects of monetary and financial policies on employment in different periods of recession and economic prosperity. By using the non-linear Markov switching model, which has a great ability to apply structural changes and the possibility of transition and prediction from one regime to another, the research variables were examined during the years 1978 to 2021. Based on the model of optimal model selection, two models (MSAIH) and (MSAI) with the number of four breaks and two optimal regimes among the different states of the Markov switching model were considered as optimal models to investigate the effects of monetary policy and financial policy on the employment variable. The results of the Markov Switching State Model (MSAIH) test showed that the sum of the coefficients of the logarithm of the volume of liquidity in the period of boom and recession has a positive effect on the logarithm of employment. Also, the estimation results of the Markov Switching State Model (MSAI) show that the logarithm of government expenditures and the logarithm of taxes have different effects (positive and negative) on the logarithm of employment in different regimes of recession and prosperity. The results of the transition probability matrix also showed that if we are in a prosperous situation, we will remain in the same situation in the next year with a probability of ninety-five percent and we will move to a period of recession with a probability of five percent.

The present study examines the quantitative effects of uncertainty regarding government expenditure policy (current and construction expenditures) on Iran's economic activity. Uncertainty is a situation where future events or their probability of occurrence are not predicted. In the real world, the economy is full of uncertainty of economic factors, which leads to risk and danger in the decision-making space of economic factors and affects their behavior. In this article, we intend to use the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), which are known as impulse models; Uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as; Measure the impact of oil prices and financial crises on economic activities such as production and employment. The data of the study was collected from the Central Bank website and the model was estimated using Eviuse software for the years 1365-1399. The findings showed that an impulse from the oil price area causes a 5% increase in production and a 1% increase in employment, also an impulse from the financial crisis area causes a 3% decrease in production and a 12% decrease in employment, respectively. The impulse from the area of uncertainty of current and construction expenses, causes a decrease in order; 12 percent is produced and 7 and 5 percent is employed.

Goods smuggling as a branch of the informal economy has destructive effects on social and economic development in developing countries. The most significant negative impact of smuggling on the economy is the decline in economic growth. Also, goods smuggling increases unemployment due to unequal competition with legal and official activities. Therefore, investigating the determinants of goods smuggling is very vital. The performance of policymakers through monetary and fiscal policies is one of the factors that can play a considerable role in controlling or expanding smuggling: while the issue has been examined in experimental studies less than other issues. Therefore, this research seeks to investigate the impact of monetary and financial policies on goods smuggling from 1998 to 2021 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and Seasonal data. The results of the research showed that in the short term, the coincidence of expansionary monetary and financial policies leads to an increase in smugglingIn the long run, expansionary fiscal policy causes to increase in smuggling, but expansionary monetary policy lead to a reduction in smuggling. Increasing exchange rate, political and economic risks also increase smuggling in the short run and the long run, increasing of exchange rate and economic risk lead to an increase in smuggling, but increasing of political risk leads to a decrease in smuggling. Therefore, it is suggested that considering the direct impact of monetary and financial policies on smuggling, they should follow the central bank's independence in providing policy packages and correct targeting.

The purpose of this article was to measure the impact of the impulse caused by the uncertainty of monetary, financial and currency policies on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1991-2022 was used based on the frequency of seasonally adjusted information. The uncertainty index of economic policies in this study was caused by monetary, financial and currency policy. In line with the modeling goal of this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method was used. In this study, the impulse of economic uncertainty in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government was included in the model. The results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of monetary policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables such as investment, employment, Government expenditures, tax revenues and consumption expenditures of the private sector showed a negative reaction. In the second part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of financial policy uncertainty indicate that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, government expenditure and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables including Employment, taxes and consumption showed a negative reaction. Finally, in the third part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of currency policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have a positive reaction to this impulse. But other variables such as investment, employment, government spending, tax and consumption showed a negative reaction.In this study, the shock of economic uncertainty through monetary, financial and currency policy has been included in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government in the model. The results obtained from this study indicated that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending and taxes have decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty, but the nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate have decreased in response to Economic uncertainty shocks have increased. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables.

In order to adopt the appropriate fiscal policy, one should know the correct relationship between the revenues and expenses of the government. The main goal of this study is to offer appropriate policy recommendations to reduce the budget deficit and resolve the imbalance between the government's revenues and expenses. In this research, the dynamic relationship and mutual effects between government revenues and government expenditures have been tested using the vector error correction (VEC) model. The results confirm the Tax-and-Spend Hypothesis for Iran. The political consequence of this hypothesis for Iran is that higher tax revenues lead to higher expenditures, which can cause an increase in the inflation rate and financial illusion in addition to the government's failure to resolve the budget deficit. Therefore, the government's efforts should be accompanied by appropriate reforms in public spending to enable productive investments and, as a result, sustainable economic growth. With increasing economic growth in the long term, it will be possible to increase tax revenues in order to compensate for the budget deficit.