سیاست پولی

The level of investment by firms and the factors influencing it have always been a subject of interest for researchers. With the advancement of technology, the significance of intangible investment in this field has increased. Intangible investment shows less responsiveness to changes in firm valuation compared to tangible investment. It depreciates more quickly and has lower collateral value, leading to different behavioral patterns compared to tangible investment. This research aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on the intangible investment of listed companies in stock market of Iran through the monetary transmission channel. The Generalized Method of Moments approach has been used to analyze this issue for 50 companies during the period of 2011 to 2022. The results indicate that monetary policy has a positive and significant impact on companies' level of investment in intangible assets. Moreover, firm size, Tobin's Q ratio, cash flow, and the level of intangible investment have a positive and significant impact on intangible investment by firms in the examined period. Another finding is the significant and positive influence of changes in gross domestic product on the level of intangible investment by manufacturing firms.

 Studies and contributions of structural vector autoexplanatory models using Bayesian and classical techniques have provided evidence that shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the main drivers of economic volatility in US postwar data. However, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models attempt to explain the movement of consumption with production following a marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shock. Indeed, the decline in consumption after a positive MEI shock contradicts empirically identified business cycles. This issue is referred to as the consumption puzzle. In other words, consumption usually decreases after a positive investment shock in the model. Therefore, the usual DSGE models do not produce the observed co-movement between macroeconomic variables in response to the marginal efficiency of investment shock. From an empirical perspective, consumption, investment, working hours and production all move together. This lack of coordination of consumption in response to investment shocks is problematic as an importantsource of business cycles.A review of empirical studies indicates that investment shocks and consumption puzzle have received limited attention. In this regard, the main aim and innovation of the current study is to set up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and use the Bayesian approach for Iran in order to bridge this study gap as much as possible. The marginal efficiency of investment shock is a source of exogenous changes in the efficiency with which the final good can be converted into physical capital and thus into future capital input. This change may be due to technological factors specific to the production of investment goods. On the other hand, exogenous changes in efficiency can result from disturbances in the process of converting these investment goods into productive capital. In neoclassical models, after a positive MEI shock, households trading in financial markets increase their investment and reduce consumption. In fact, an intertemporal substitution effect occurs between the current consumption and investment, which creates a negative wealth effect and, therefore, creates the so-called consumption puzzle. The mechanism behind the puzzle was first described by Barrow and King (1984). The idea is that if an efficient equilibrium exists, the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure should equal the marginal product of labor. This condition implies that with exogenous shocks that only indirectly affect marginal production labor, as MEI shocks actually do, consumption and labor hours move in opposite directions. Therefore, although MEI shocks account for up to 60% of the variance in output and working hours, the argument that investment shocks are one of the most important drivers of macroeconomic fluctuations is challenging.

The core of current research model is derived from the studies of Rohe (2012) and by expanding it, the marginal efficiency of investment shock and the consumption puzzle have been modeled for Iran. To estimate the model parameters, the Bayesian method, and the Random Walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm were used. The data of the model’s observable variables include seasonal adjusted data, gross domestic production, private consumption, private investment, government expenditure, and inflation rate (gross) from 2004 to 2022, which underwent a de-trending procedure using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.

The marginal efficiency of investment shock leads to an increase in the rate of return on capital and investment. Consumption behavior is similar to investment behavior but with less volatility. Due to the increase in the demand side of the economy, inflation will increase and the real exchange rate will decrease. In response to the increase in the demand side, production, wage rates and employment increase. It should be noted that the contractionary monetary policy has led to a reduction in the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables, yet the dynamic of the variables has not changed.

 In justifying these results, the average mark-up equation of the economy can be used:Mup,t=MPNtWtPt  where, Mup,t  is the average mark-up, MPNt  is the marginal product of labor, Wt  is the nominal wage rate and Pt  is the price index in period t.The equilibrium conditions of the labor market can also be introduced as follows:1Mup,tMPNtNt=MRStCt , Nt  Despite nominal price stickiness, firms are not able to increase their prices in response to the increase in demand caused by the investment boom resulted from shocks. Therefore, the average mark-up of the economy decreases and effectively shifts the labor demand curve upwards. In this situation, consumption and working hours increase. In other words, in spite of inseparable preferences and in the conditions that the increase of working hours has a positive effect on the marginal utility of consumption (the complementarity of working hours and consumption), the co-movement of investment, production, working hours and consumption can be justified and the puzzle of consumption does not occur

Monetary policies financing is one of the important and practical tools in Islamic countries to improve financial conditions and increase the desired level of production of private companies, and monetary policies have a significant effect in controlling and predicting the cost of financing in line with the goal of increasing the economic power of the company. In this regard, the main goal of this research is the effectiveness of financing available to private production companies in Iran from monetary policies during the years 1390-1400. To achieve this goal, the variable of legal reserves of visual deposits is considered as an alternative variable of monetary policy in the Islamic banking system and the effect of this variable along with other macroeconomic variables such as real GDP growth, gross domestic fixed capital formation, Exchange rate fluctuations and monetary base on the facilities granted by the banking system in the above time period have been investigated. The estimation results of the model indicate the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the model variables and the legal reserve rate variable has a negative effect and the investment variables, GDP growth, monetary base and exchange rate fluctuations have a positive and significant effect on the amount of facilities granted by the banking system. have a country Therefore, the most important practical suggestion of this study is that the monetary and banking policy makers of the country have taken steps to increase the amount of banking facilities in the country by reducing the legal reserve rate and increasing the excess and free reserves of the banking system, and in this way the ground for improving Provide domestic production capacity within the framework of Islamic banking law.

Inflation has become one of Iran's permanent problems, and unlike many countries in the world, Iran has not been able to keep inflation at low levels. In this research, the factors affecting inflation between 2001 and 2021 were investigated using the quantitative regression approach to compare the intensity of the effects of variables at different levels of inflation. The results show that M2 growth has a positive and significant effect on inflation in all distributional quantiles, but this effect is ascending from the first to the second decile and then goes through a downward trend. The exchange rate coefficient, which was 0.120% in the first decade, reached 0.204% in the last decade and this shows that at low inflation levels, the exchange rate has less impact on inflation, but at higher levels of inflation, the intensity of the effect of the exchange rate on inflation also increases. In Iran's economy, the deficits that have led to the creation of liquidity beyond production have become a factor for excess demand and the formation of pressure to increase prices. In addition to the M2 growth, currency jumps have also played a significant role in Iran's inflation, and in the absence of currency jumps, the inflation rate experienced milder changes.

Governance of the Rial domain is one of the areas of governance that has received less attention from the country's economic policymakers in the past few decades. The purpose of Rial governance is for the government to use the capacities that the Rial payment system and the information available in bank transactions create for the administration of the country . therefore, the aim of the present study was to present a model for strengthening Rial governance with the aim of reducing capital outflow. This study was applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of its data collection method and was analyzed using a mixed research method (qualitative-quantitative). The present study was conducted in three steps including qualitative, interpretive structure modeling, and quantitative. The results of the qualitative section indicate that 8 overarching themes, 25 organizing themes, and 58 basic themes were identified. The overarching themes are monetary policies, exchange rate policies, creating and strengthening transparency in banking performance, strengthening supervision and control over banking operations, creating financial attractiveness for investment in the country, gaining the trust of foreign investors, good governance, and challenges. The results from the quantitative section also showed that the dimensions obtained have a significant impact on strengthening the governance of the rial with the aim of reducing capital outflows.

In this article, we have evaluated the capability of several New Keynesian models with behavioral characteristics in forecasting the effects of a monetary policy shock. We have considered the assumption of bounded rationality, taking into account agents' learning and finite horizon planning. The estimation of the models was conducted using the Bayesian approach within the framework of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. We used seasonal data from the Iranian economy covering the period 1988:2-2023:1. Our results indicate several important findings. Firstly, the New Keynesian model, which incorporates finite horizon planning, is more compatible with the data. Secondly, we found that in response to a monetary shock, finite horizon models exhibit less fluctuations and are more persistent compared to the Canonical New Keynesian model. This is due to the slow learning of agents from past experiences. As a result, the central bank reacts less aggressively to inflation and output fluctuations in finite horizon models compared to the Canonical New Keynesian model. Overall, our findings suggest that incorporating bounded rationality and finite horizon planning in New Keynesian models improves their ability to forecast the effects of monetary policy shocks in the Iranian economy.

The interbank market in Iran started working in 2008 and has deepened in recent years with the entry of banks and financial institutions and the increase in the volume of transactions. On the other hand, with the publication of Islamic Treasury bills since 2015 by the General Treasury and the use of the political tool of open market operations with these bills, the monetary policy maker is trying to guide the market interest rate and achieve political goals. In this research, the causal relationship between the inter-bank market interest rate and the yield rate of 90-day treasury bills using monthly data for the period of 2015-2023 and weekly data for the period of 2021-2023 using linear and non-linear causality tests. has been The findings showed that according to the monthly data, there is an instantaneous causality relationship between the interbank rate and the yield rate of treasury bills, while there is no significant linear or non-linear Granger causality relationship between them. According to the weekly data, a weak linear causality relationship was observed from the interbank rate to the yield rate of 90-day treasury bills, so that this causality was not established in other lags of the model. Therefore, the result indicates that the monetary policy has not yet fully stepped in the direction of interest rate management to be effective in shaping the rest of the interest rates.

Considering the two characteristics of real estate, including consumption and capital characteristics, the total demand of the housing sector can be divided into consumer and investment demand. Different policies can have different effects on each component of housing demand. In this study, using the iran's seasonal data of 1380-1400 and the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, the effects of monetary and financial policy as well as the oil price shock on housing demand were investigated. The results show that investment demand can explain housing price fluctuations better than consumer demand. For example, while expansionary fiscal policy increases both types of consumption and investment demands; Contractionary financial policy causes a decrease in consumer demand and an increase in capital demand for housing. When the economy is booming, the housing market fluctuates. As the fluctuations in the housing market increase, the share of investment in housing increases, and this indicates that housing applicants tend to give more weight to the investment value than the value. Provide consumption that may cause the formation of a housing bubble. In the end, some reasonable policy proposals are presented in the field of price control.

Validity of a policy to achieve the goal of sustainability is an important issue. Stability of expectations through monetary policy is successful when financial policies do not make expectations unstable. The coordination between monetary and financial policies is done at two different levels, firstly in the short term and in accordance with the conventional performance of monetary and financial policies, and secondly regarding the long-term effects of macroeconomics, which can affect the coordination of unadjusted policies. In the short term, coordination is a policy to achieve financial goals, including price stability. The main focus should be placed on monetary policies and government debt management. In the long term, the issue of policy coordination is adjusted based on how to design the structure of monetary and financial policies, which leads to maintaining the path of economic growth in a balanced way; that is, it controls inflation and provides financial conditions for sustainable growth. This indicates that the financial deficit should be limited to such an extent that the capital market can operate without disturbing the allocation of resources in the economy and bringing the need for the central bank. Considering the continuous budget deficit, one of the most important economic challenges in Iran is the dependence of the government budget on oil, because the more the dependence of the government budget on oil revenues and its influence on oil impulses, the more fluctuations in the demand of the entire economy. The importance of the mentioned issue stems from the fact that increasing government spending has been one of the ways to achieve greater economic growth in recent decades, but this has caused governments to face the problem of continuous budget deficits. On the one hand, the government's income has serious limitations due to the weakness of the tax system and some economic structural problems. On the other hand, the adoption of incorrect financial policies and lack of proper planning along with population growth lead to an increase in demand for public goods such as education and health. This has led to the increasing growth of government expenditures. The limitation of the government's resources and incomes causes a budget deficit, making governments borrow from the central bank to cover this deficit. The monetary authorities' reaction to this issue can be effective in the stability of economic policies.

Monetary and financial policies have always been of interest to economists as tools to achieve macroeconomic goals. Of course, there have been fluctuations in focusing on the positive role of each of the economic policies in stabilizing economic fluctuations. The main goal of this research was to examine the relationship and coordination between monetary and financial policies in Iran's economy. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1989-2022 was used based on the frequency of the seasonal data. In order to model the interaction and relationship between monetary and financial policies in Iran, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was used.

Based on the results, the shock of monetary policies initially has a very decreasing effect on economic growth and consumption. From the fourth period onwards, however, the impact of monetary policy shocks on these two variables is positive. This can be due to the existence of unsupported monetary policies in the country and the resulting increase in inflation, which has a negative impact on consumption and economic growth. As a result of the monetary policy shock, the net investment increases sharply at first and reaches a maximum in the fourth period and then decreases with a downward trend. Therefore, due to the effects of inflation, monetary policies lead to the desire of households and companies to increase investment. In the case of government spending, the monetary policy shock increased the government spending sharply at first and, after six periods, it went through a relatively downward trend with a gentle trend. According to the results, financial policy shocks have first led to an increase in consumption and economic growth and finally to a decrease. As a result of the financial policy shock, the net investment decreases sharply until the sixth period and reaches zero. After that, it increases mildly. Also, in response to the financial policy shock, there is an increase in the inflation rate and the amount of money in response to the financial policy shock. This indicates the supremacy of financial policy over monetary policy in the country.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

In Iran, monetary and financial policies are always implemented by policymakers with the aim of creating economic growth and stability. But, unfortunately, there is always the issue of deviation from the goals and the undesirable and negative welfare and economic effects of applying such policies. It seems that most of these issues are due to paying attention to monetary and financial goals separately rather than dealing with the interactions of those policies and, most importantly, recognizing the goal of preparing executive programs for these two areas. On the other hand, the dominance of financial policy and lack of attention to monetary and financial policy interactions have limited the power of the central bank to use monetary instruments to control inflation. It is necessary to study the interaction of monetary and financial policies, both from the point of view of economic considerations and with regard to the requirements of revising the implementation of those policies in terms of the negative effects on the economy caused by the implementation of wrong policies in the economy of Iran. According to the results, it is suggested to control the inflation rate and money growth in the country with the financial discipline of the government and the reduction of financing the government expenses from the area of money creation. In the end, non-violation of the announced policies by the policy makers will be the most important factor in reducing the financial indiscipline of the government.

The Central Bank, as the organ in charge of monetary policies, implements those policies that achieve the selected final goals. In order to achieve these goals, central banks usually use a mechanism. In the first step, the operational tool is selected, and, in the second step, this tool has an effect on a variable called the intermediate goal. Then, through its changes, the final goals are achieved. Depending on the economic conditions and environmental characteristics, the selected tools of the central bank can have different degrees of effectiveness in achieving the macroeconomic goals. Since the monetary policy used in Iran's economy is based on the prohibition of usury and the non-use of interest rates, the question to arise is how the restriction of zero interest rate (prohibition of usury) is applied in the Islamic economic system. Although we know that the theory of zero interest rate, which is discussed in conventional economics, has structural (theoretical and practical) differences with the concept of prohibition of usury, it can  have implications for the Islamic economy and our country. In this regard, the issue of compensation for currency depreciation has always been the focus of Islamic economic researchers. For example, compensation for the depreciation of money up to the inflation is accepted according to the fatwa of the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economic effects of the zero real interest rate policy on the variables of Iran’s macroeconomics and analyze its consequences. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of zero real interest rate monetary policy on macroeconomic variables.

In this research, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) including the banking system has been designed, in which the central bank determines the policy interest rate in the market by using the open market operation tools and implements its monetary policy. In the conventional structure of DSGE models, it is necessary to determine the parts of the model at first. In this study, the described parts are household, banking system, producer of final goods and services, government and the central bank as the determiner of interest rates. The study also uses the seasonal data of the period 2009-2021 with the Bayesian method.

The findings of this research show that, based on the defined monetary policy rule, the interest rate reacts to changes in the inflation rate and production. According to the findings, the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the shock of one percentage increase in the nominal interest rate is as expected. With the increase in the interest rate, household consumption decreases. Based on the optimal path of the investment expenses, the investment costs and, consequently, the amount of the capital decrease. As the marginal cost items decrease, the total production level decreases too. Therefore, based on zero real interest rate, the direction and path of change of important macroeconomic variables in the policy is in line with expectations. The effects of the zero real interest rate policy show themselves better when compared to those of the non-zero real interest rate policy. The rule based on zero real interest rate is less able to control economic fluctuations because, in the case where the monetary policy maker actively reacts to economic fluctuations (non-zero real interest rate policy), its response to the inflation rate is not point-for-point. So, it can control economic fluctuations by changing the real interest rate.In the case where the interest rate reacts exactly point-for-point to the inflation rate, because the real interest rate does not change, there is no noticeable change in the path of macroeconomic variables; therefore, in the face of economic shocks, stable equilibrium will not be established. In fact, the zero real interest rate, meaning the equality of the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate, violates Taylor's principle in monetary policy. According to Taylor's principle, the policy based on the interest rate rule can lead to a sufficient response to the variables, thus reestablishing the balance if the sensitivity of the interest rate to the inflation rate is greater than point-for-point. If this sensitivity is equal to one, it cannot bring the stable equilibrium conditions for the economy.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

As it was said, in the current situation of the country, the implemented interest rate indicates the passive state of the monetary policy. In other words, it shows that it cannot bring a stable balance in response to economic shocks. In the current research, it has been tried to simulate the effects of implementing the policy of zero real interest rate and analyze its effects on macroeconomic variables, considering the theories about compensation for currency depreciation and the recent fatwa of the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as some theories based on the zero real interest rate in the conventional economy. The results of this simulation show that the mentioned policy cannot guarantee the establishment of equilibrium in the economy after the occurrence of a shock. This is because, like the current monetary policy of the central bank, this policy violates Taylor's principle. Therefore, in line with the mentioned fatwa on compensating the depreciation of the currency up to the inflation rate and in order to correct this policy rule, some variables can be considered to achieve a stable balance. These variables are such as the population growth rate, economic uncertainties, political subsidies, etc., which can be the subject of future research.

Economical growth and development require having vast and efficient financial markets, which from an economical perspective, are divided into two parts: money and capital markets. The exchange market is the main principle of a capital market. In investigating the function and efficiency of the exchange market, the price index of the stock shows the status of the stock market. In general, the factors affecting the stock price index of companies could be divided into two categories: macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. This research zeroes in on the macroeconomic factors that affect the stock price index. The present study will, first, introduce the variables that affect the stock price index, and then, examines any nonlinear relationship between the exchange rate and Tehran Stock Exchange Index from 1991 to 2020 in Iran. In this regard, information was collected from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) and economic reports of the Central Bank of Iran and Hansen’s Threshold Regression Technique (1996 and 2003) was utilized. The results of the Threshold Model show a nonlinear and significant relationship between the exchange rate and Tehran Stock Exchange Index, in such a way that the threshold exchange rate is estimated at 12068.071 Tomans. It means, therefore, when the exchange rate drops under the estimated threshold, this variable (because the foreign currency will also be attractive for investors in such a situation) will have a more positive and significant effect, compared to when the exchange rate is over the estimated threshold.

The current study uses TVP-FAVAR models to investigate the effect of monetary and financial shocks on inflation, with a focus on the intermediary role of banks, from 1370-1 to 2018-4. Main variables influencing inflation are considered to be money volume, current expenditures, construction expenditures, taxes, and the bank intermediation index. The rate of return variable of the speculative sector is considered as an unobservable and hidden variable. The findings show that not only the bank intermediation index, but also the variables of liquidity, construction expenses, and current expenses, have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and that each standard deviation of change in these variables between one and three years has an effect on the country's inflation stability and permanence. Based on the model's findings, policies such as floating the bank interest rate and credit indexing can be implemented, as can supply-side policies such as increasing the level of work culture, increasing human resource productivity, and changing the labor market's composition. The annual anchoring of government spending in four-year periods, as well as the adoption of policies that reduce the uncertainty of inflation, can be effective in adjusting the inflation rate for the ratio of budget deficit or government debt to GDP.

With the emergence of private digital currencies and the decreasing use of cash, the discussion about the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) among central banks has gained momentum. Considering the interest of central banks worldwide in CBDC, we endeavored to analyze other countries' initiatives in introducing CBDC through a comparative analysis method, aiming to examine its impact on monetary policies, improving central bank supervision, and financial stability. For this purpose, we considered the most probable design of CBDC that central banks are inclined to adopt. The results indicate that the issuance of CBDC, with the condition of appropriate design and necessary actions by the central bank, not only does not lead to the disintermediation of banks but can also contribute to its improvement. Monetary policy is reinforced with the presence of CBDC, expanding the space for monetary policies through the introduction of new tools such as helicopter money, smart contracts, and the implementation of negative interest rates. In general, central bank digital currency, due to its financial inclusion and the new source of data it provides to the central bank, contributes to financial stability and the improvement of the central bank.

One of the most important challenges of societies in the last few decades is the destructive and repeated human activities to destroy the environment. The ecological footprint is the latest index measuring the extent of individuals’ influence and engagement in addressing the issue of climate change as well as their negative impact on the environment. The economic policies adopted by societies have a significant effect on the process of ecological footprint. Monetary and Fiscal Policies are among the most important policies that, in addition to affecting the productive and economic activities of society, also affect the environment. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary and Fiscal policies on the ecological footprint in Iran during the period from 1980 to 2021 and using the structural vector autoregression method. “Liquidity and the government’s final consumption expenditures have been employed as monetary and fiscal policy tools, while economic growth, urbanization, and foreign direct investment have been utilized as control variables.” The results of this research show that foreign direct investment and urbanization have a negative and significant impact on the ecological footprint. Also, economic growth, monetary policy, Fiscal policy and the dependent variable itself have a positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint and lead to an increase in the ecological footprint during the mentioned time period. On the other hand, fiscal policy impulses in the long term have resulted in a rise in environmental degradation in Iran. The results of variance analysis in the 10th period show that monetary policy explains 6.70% and Fiscal policy 24.06% of changes in the dependent variable.

The informal economy plays a significant role in economies, influencing their overall performance and stability. Reducing the negative effects of the informal economy requires a balanced combination of policies. Monetary policy, along with its transmission channels, directly and indirectly, have positive or negative consequences on the activities of both formal and informal economies. In this study, it is investigated the effect of various monetary policy tools, including interest rates, bank credit ratio, and exchange rate changes, on the size of the informal economy in Iran. An asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze the relationship between these variables during the period of 2017-2018. The results indicate the negative effect of the monetary policy credit channel on the informal economy. Additionally, the exchange rate channel shows a positive effect, while the interest rate channel has a negative effect on the informal economy, and these coefficients are asymmetric. The coefficients of inflation rate and the ratio of liquidity to GDP also show a positive effect. Therefore, policymakers can utilize monetary policies to control the informal economy by implementing measures such as increasing the granting of bank credits, controlling inflation, and managing the exchange rate.

Production growth is the most important goal in all world economies. The main goal of all macroeconomic policies in different countries is to maintain and increase production as much as possible in the first step. Different policies are implemented in different countries. Among these policies, a main category is monetary policies. The purpose of this article is to estimate the effects of monetary policy (within the framework of liquidity regulation and interest rate control), government control (in the monetary sector) and sanctions on Iran's GDP. In this study, data from the years 1357 to 1399 were used. Monetary policy, government control and sanctions were considered as independent variables and production as a dependent variable. The method of data analysis is econometrics, autoregressive with distributed lags (ARDL). EViews software was used to estimate the model. The findings of the research show that the embargo had a negative effect on the GDP. The monetary policy of increasing the applied liquidity has had a positive effect on production, and the monetary policy within the framework of interest rate or bank interest has not had a significant effect on production. Also, government control policy has had a positive effect on production.

The aim of this article was forming a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for Iran's economy in terms of the specific characteristics of the country's economy. After the experimental analysis of the model, the calibration of the model parameters was done; This means that the parameters of the model were tried to be set in such a way that the highest match between the real statistics and the simulations made by the model is achieved. For this purpose, information from previous studies or some special features of statistics were used to calibrate the parameters, and in some cases, the desired parameters were calibrated using the statistics of Iran's economy. In the next step, the presented model was simulated using Diner program. The results provided by the Diner program include a summary of the moments of the simulated variables and the instantaneous reaction functions of these variables equal to the shocks included in the model. In this study, the model was simulated in three different cases. In the first case, the policy reaction functions were not included in the central bank's decision-making, and in the next two cases, the reaction functions were included in the model, according to which the central bank is one of the two scenarios. Inflation control (through monetary base control) and exchange rate control (through intervention in the currency market) are taken as monetary policy. The obtained results indicate a high similarity between the model values and the real statistics values. Then, the behavior of the reaction functions of the variables in response to the exogenous shocks of the model (oil income shock and technology shock) was investigated.

This study uses the Panel VAR methodology to examine the impact of globalization on the effectiveness of monetary policies in a subset of Islamic countries. For this purpose, first, changes in real per capita gross production and changes in inflation rate were estimated using Hadrick-Prescott filter during the period of 2000-2019. In order to investigate the effect of globalization on production changes and inflation rate changes, auto-regression panel data pattern was used. Then, using the shock response test, the impact of globalization on the efficiency of monetary policies in the economy of selected Islamic countries was analyzed. The findings reveal that globalization, in conjunction with enhanced liquidity, induces shifts in GDP, thereby diminishing the potency of monetary policy. Shocks stemming from the interactive variable of globalization and interest rates drive fluctuations in GDP, underscoring the diminished efficacy of monetary policy due to interest rates. Over the long term, alterations in the inflation rate exhibit no discernible response to shocks from the interactive variables of financial globalization, liquidity volume, and globalization combined with interest rates. Consequently, in the extended term, monetary policy wielded through interest rates mitigates inflationary shifts, underscoring the efficacy of the interest rate channel. Therefore, Islamic countries can strengthen the mobility and transfer of foreign capitals to the country by increasing the domestic interest rate, which with the entry of foreign capitals will strengthen the domestic production capacities, followed by an increase in exports and an increase in foreign investment, and in this way will lead to By strengthening the supply side of the domestic economy, controlling and reducing inflation is achieved.