شوک پولی

From an empirical point of view, in the stock market, high risk should bring more returns is a false assumption, because the main cause of such contradictions is the possibility of investors' emotions. Also, changes in the way financial transactions are carried out and as a result of risk events have prompted monetary policy decision makers to analyze how their actions affect financial markets in this new environment. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the reaction of Tehran stock market index to monetary shock, risk aversion and investors' sentiments. For this purpose, the results were analyzed using the annual data of Iran during the period of 1401-1370 and using the autoregression with distribution interval and threshold regression models. The results show that the non-linear relationship between all independent and dependent variables is U-shaped, and according to the analysis of the short-term linear model, risk aversion, monetary shock, and investors' sentiments have an effect on the return of the stock market index. have a negative and significant effect. The long-term results showed that only the monetary shock will have a positive and significant effect on the performance of the Tehran stock market index.

In general, one of the channels that help accelerate the economic growth of countries is the growth of their industry sector. The importance and basic role of the industry sector and its contribution as the most important factor in stimulating economic growth in developed and developing countries is to such an extent that many experts believe that industrial development leads to the growth and development of other sectors. It leads to economy. The present research has been conducted on the asymmetric analysis of monetary shocks on the economic growth rate of the industrial sector in Iran with the SUR model. In this research, using seasonal time series data during the period 1365 to 1398 and using the nonlinear approach of Markov regime change, apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) and linear regression method, the effect of the mentioned shocks on growth Industrial production is reviewed. The results of the SUR technique showed that the reaction of the industries and mines sector and its sub-sectors to predicted and unanticipated monetary shocks is meaningless in normal economic conditions. Therefore, regardless of the fluctuations governing the economy, the transmission channels of monetary policy are weak in the entire sector of industries and mines and its sub-sectors.

Banking facilities distortions lead to suboptimal allocation of financial resources and impact various sectors of the economy. In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specifically a New Keynesian model, is designed for the Iranian economy, considering two scenarios: the presence and absence of banking facilities distortions. The model is calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation methods with the DYNARE software. The parameter values are calibrated to accurately reflect the main characteristics of the Iranian economy during the period of 1991-2021. The main objective is to examine the effects of major economic shocks on the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables under these two scenarios. The studied shocks include monetary shock, investment shock, wage mark-up shock, and government expenditure shock, which are considered as the sources of economic fluctuations in Iran. The simulation results of the effects of the monetary policy shock indicate that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions in the first scenario, the effectiveness of this shock increases, indicating an increased effectiveness of monetary policy in mitigating economic fluctuations. The results also show that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions, the economy tends to return to equilibrium faster after experiencing negative investment shocks or wage mark-up shocks, implying a reduction in the impact of these shocks. The simulation results of the effects of government expenditure shocks also demonstrate that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions, the effectiveness of this shock increases

The role of deep hapbit in countercyclical behavior of mark-up and its impact on the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks have already been studied, but its strength in the presence of Philips curve with price stickiness is not clear. The purpose of this study is to develop a New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) following Cristiano et al. (2005), to investigate the simultaneous effect of price stickiness and deep habits on monetary and fiscal shock transmission using Markov- switching stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model for the Iranian economy. The results of impulse-response functions show reducing markup for one period due to deep habits and then increasing markup and inflation after a period due to a stronger role of price stickiness. Moreover, although the negative effect of wealth due to government spending is compensated by deep habits consumption and thus makes consumption increase, it is weak in comparison to the strength of expected inflation, and therefore, inflation increases eventually. Overall, the results of this study indicate that deep habits cannot be a dominant factor in the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks, but according to the obtained impulse response functions, it can be the strong reason to delay increasing inflation. Also, deep habits consumption can be a good reason for increasing consumption and compensating of the negative effect of wealth due to fiscal shock.

In the present study, the aim is to investigate the effect of monetary and financial shocks on the real sector of Iran's economy under two different scenarios. For this purpose, in the framework of DSGE model, after optimizing and extracting the conditions of the first order, the linear-logarithmic shape of the equations has been obtained and the model has been simulated. The results indicate that the fluctuations of the variables under both simulated scenarios are consistent with the theoretical foundations of the economy, which shows the high accuracy of the model in fitting the Iranian economy. On the other hand, the instantaneous reaction functions of the variables show that the assumption of discussing the observance of bank resources and expenditures in the first scenario has significantly reduced the range of economic fluctuations (business cycles) and under this scenario the economy after facing shock. The outsiders are back in balance faster.

Residential investment is the main component of investment and has a crucial rule in output and employment. The residential investment is affected by macroeconomic shocks. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the pace at which housing investment has responded to different macroeconomics shocks in Ian in the 1978- 2017 period by using the BVAR method. Four macroeconomic shocks are introduced to the model i.e. exchange rate, monetary, fiscal, and oil income shocks. The Sims-Zha (Normal-Wishart) was recolonized the most appropriate prior function for our data set. The Impulse response functions reveal that one standard deviation positive shocks to exchange rate, interest rate, government expenditure, and oil income initially increased housing investment and then gradually returned to its steady-state value. Oil price and monetary shocks had the shortest and longest duration impact on residential investment.  The highest volatility in residential investment created by the fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and oil income shocks respectively. The results indicate that the policymaker should consider the difference in the amount and duration of the impacts of four macroeconomic shocks on residential investment in the policymaking.

IF the economy is exposed to Continuous and unexpected Expansionary Monetary Policy, the exchange rate will exceed its long-run value in the short run and returns to that level again in the long-run, This is a short- run phenomenon, Stem from a lack of uniform of Adjustment speed in commodity and asset markets. Considering the destructive and harmful effects of exchange rate overshooting in the economy. In this study, the causes of the formation and effective factors on exchange rate overshooting of Iran & Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries using annual time series data for mentioned countries according to published statistics of World Bank, IMF and Federal Reserve by pooled model in the period 1990-2016 were investigated. Among the factors affecting exchange rate overshooting, there are variables of balance of payment, fiscal policy (government expenditures), monetary shock and oil shock which are examined in detail. In order to estimate effect of oil shock in countries surveyed, using dummy variable, the oil exporting and importing countries are divided. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of variables of fiscal policy (government expenditure), monetary shock expectations, oil shock in oil importing countries and a negative and significant effect of oil shock in oil exporting countries and balance of payments. That means, more government expenses, balance of payments deficit, monetary shock expectations and oil shock in oil importing countries will make exchange rate to overshoot or money depreciation of the country's national currency. While, oil price shock in oil exporting countries decreases exchange rate overshooting or money appreciation of the country's national currency which sign of all coefficients are fully justified according to theoretical basis of the economy.

In Keynesian theory, fiscal policy is more efficient than monetary policy. While some other schools, such as monetarism, believe greater efficiency for monetary policies. The question of which of the monetary and financial policies in Iran's economy is more efficient is the central question that the present study seeks to answer. In this study, the impact of changes in money supply as monetary policy representative and changes in government spending as fiscal policy representative have been investigated on Iran's economy. The research has been done in the framework of a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using time series data during 1979-2013. The economy's general equilibrium contains 15 equations which have been extracted from behaviors optimization of households and firms besides government and Central Bank policy rules. Parameters estimation has been done by using Bayesian method and calibration. The results showed that the shock of increasing the volume of money increased production, investment, employment and inflation. Also, the shock of increasing government spending increased production, employment and inflation but reduced investment. Results indicate that the impact of government spending shock is more than the money supply shock. Also, durability of government spending shock is more than the same in money supply shock

Banking system, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomy, plays a vital role in general economic equilibrium and transition of economic shocks in the society. Because of that, it is of sensitive role in national economy. In addition to implementing dictated monetary policies of central banks, they as any economic business, pursue the goal of increasing their profitability. In this study, we use Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and take into account five economic sectors, namely households, entrepreneurs, mediator banks, distributors and government, to study the reaction of banks to emergence of monetary shocks. For this purpose, the authors seek to make use of long-term macroeconomic parameters. The results of our model show that, upon emergence of a positive shock on interest rate, due to the decrease of request for loan and the amount of lent money, the rate of loaning and as a result, the profit of banks is reduced, and in the case of a positive oil shock, the amount of market liquidity increases so the rate of loaning decreases and the scale of investment increases and finally, the households’ willingness to save is reduced. Therefore, the outcome of decrease of lending rate and decrease of deposits leads to a reduction in banks’ profitability.

Considering the importance of implementing monetary policy in any economy, its impact on the main economic variables, including production, is very crucial. This paper examines and analyzes the effects of positive and negative monetary shocks on production in Iran using the MS-DSGE model during the period of 1979-2004. The results of this study indicate that positive and negative monetary policies in the recession periods, as well as boom periods, have asymmetric effects on the growth of domestic production. The effect of positive and negative monetary shocks on production is higher during the recession than during the boom. Generally, the monetary shocks are more effective during the boom than the recession. Accordingly, it is suggested that to achieve the economic goals policymakers should implement their policies during the economic recessions.

There is a growing attention to models which contain a broader set of economic data. In recent decade, introduction of Factor Augmented VAR models through augmentation of traditional VAR models with unobservable “factors” has made a new route to econometric modeling. In spite of the growing number of international papers and researches which have used FAVAR approach to modeling policy shocks to various economies, there is little about Iranian economy. So the paper is an attempt to fill the gap in the literature using an FAVAR model to analyze transmission of oil and monetary shocks to Iranian economy. The model contains 35 major macroeconomic annual variables spanning from 1974 to 2014. The results show that “real sector” of Iranian economy responds positively to oil shocks up to 5 years. Also “nominal sector” of the economy responds positively to oil shocks but the responses are shorter, smaller and more volatile than “real sector” responses. Finally the model results show responses of “nominal sector” of Iranian economy to monetary shocks are positive which its duration varies between 2 and 4 years.

In order to implement inflation targeting policy, it is crucial for monetary policy makers to know how prices (CPI's components) respond to monetary policy shocks. In fact, due to market imperfections and price stickiness, monetary shocks could bring about real effects. In this paper, we use VAR framework and prices stickiness test to examine the impulse response functions of CPI's components to one standard error in liquidity (M2) by using seasonal data over the time period 1369-1390 (1990-2011). Our empirical findings show that 1) Monetary shocks have a lagged effect on disaggregated prices and most prices respond to a monetary shock with a considerable delay, and 2) There is a substantial difference among CPI's components response to monetary base shocks. Therefore, our findings imply the existence of price stickiness, but the intensity of stickiness in CPI's components is different. On the other hand, the difference in the market structure of production of goods and services can explain the difference in their price responses to monetary shocks.

In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.

This study examines the impact of monetary shocks to the housing economy, it pays
In this regard, the long run structural vector model (SVAR) based on data from years 91-1376 seasonally used.
The results show that instantaneous response functions, shock to the money supply significantly increases the housing market variables except the variable "facilities housing sector" is.
Variables, residential investment, land price index and housing price index, based on responses of the research findings have fairly similar to a monetary policy shock.
Entered into an interest rate shock increase housing costs and reduce short-term investments and long-term residential land price index and the increase of these two variables. , And its effect on the variables and run the facilities for housing rent index was positive and significant effect on interest rates, but there are no facilities for housing.
The analysis of variance showed a significant share of the money supply, the amount of variance in the housing market, with the exception of the variable "facilities granted to the housing sector," explains a small portion of the interest rate, the amount of variance explained in the housing market.

The goal of this paper is to analyze the effects of oil and money on operation of macro variables of Iranian economy in short and long-run. A macro model has been designed to show three long-run relationships that contains output, real money balance and purchasing power parity in a vector error correction model with exogenous variables. This model has been estimated based on seasonal data during 1367 to 1387. The results confirm three long-run relationships said in Iranian economy. The responses of macroeconomic variables to oil and monetary shocks analyzed based on estimated model and impulse response functions.

Money and its effects on and from real variables are the key issues in macroeconomics. Many studies have been accomplished for investigating the interaction between money and real sectors. The over-parameterization is the vital problem in Vector Autoregression Models. This problem is appeared more seriously in the cases of data restriction and lack of adequate observations (such as IRAN) and deviate the predictions. Thus we should look for a way for decreasing the number of parameters and restricting the model. The Bayesian approach is a good way for this purpose. This article addresses the effects of monetary shocks on the key variables of macro economy such as GDP and price general level. According to the tests carried out, the SSVS prior is more suitable in BVAR model. By calculating the posterior function we compute the Impulse Response Function. According to IRFs a monetary shock tends to the increase of GDP and price level. But the response of price level is relatively more rapid and more persistent. Hence, however using an expansionary monetary policy tends to the increase of GDP in short-run, but its inflationary cost causes a continuous and long-run increasing of price level.

In this paper، a small scale Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Model is utilized to analyze the effects of monetary shocks on price level and economic activities in the Iranian housing sector. To analyze the «price level»، four price indices of the housing sector were used and also six indices to estimate the «economic activities» in this sector were determined. The results show that shocks from liquidity and high powered money will have wave-like effects on the housing sector in Iran. The waves have an approximate duration of 5 years which is confirmed by observations of the housing sector in Iran. Also the results show that the effects of the liquidity shocks have more durable effects on the sector in comparison with the high powered money shocks.

Achieving price stability is known as one of the tasks and objectives of policy makers especially in central banks. In order to implement inflation targeting policy, the information relating to the response of prices to monetary policy shocks is essential for monetary policy makers. Most studies analyze the response of aggregate price level like CPI or consumption deflator to monetary shocks. Moreover, a limited number of studies that examine the effect of monetary shocks on disaggregate prices use vector auto regression models for the analysis. The results of these studies show that some disaggregated prices increase slightly in response to a contractionary monetary shocks. This finding which is inconsistent with the standard theory is known as the "price puzzle" in literature. In this paper we use a factor Augmented VAR framework to examine the impulse response function of 12 categories of CPI to one standard error in money base growth rate in Iran. Our two main findings are: 1) monetary shocks have a lagged effect on disaggregated prices and most prices response to a monetary shock with a considerable delay. 2) There is a substantial difference amongst 12 CPI sub-categories in response to an increase in monetary base growth rate. However, the impulse response functions of disaggregated prices are not statistically significant based on bootstrap confidence interval. Contrary to existing studies based on standard VAR model, by using FAVAR approach, we also find that price responses don’t display a price puzzle in the case of Iran.