عواید نفتی

In order to adopt the appropriate fiscal policy, one should know the correct relationship between the revenues and expenses of the government. The main goal of this study is to offer appropriate policy recommendations to reduce the budget deficit and resolve the imbalance between the government's revenues and expenses. In this research, the dynamic relationship and mutual effects between government revenues and government expenditures have been tested using the vector error correction (VEC) model. The results confirm the Tax-and-Spend Hypothesis for Iran. The political consequence of this hypothesis for Iran is that higher tax revenues lead to higher expenditures, which can cause an increase in the inflation rate and financial illusion in addition to the government's failure to resolve the budget deficit. Therefore, the government's efforts should be accompanied by appropriate reforms in public spending to enable productive investments and, as a result, sustainable economic growth. With increasing economic growth in the long term, it will be possible to increase tax revenues in order to compensate for the budget deficit.

In this study, budget sustainability in Iran is investigated. This study takes into account the important issue and concept of establishing intergenerational justice in the exploitation of oil resources. In this study, with the study of literature on the issue of intergenerational justice in utilizing natural resources and its relation to budget sustainability, Iran's budget sustainability was measured and predicted using budget information in the two periods of 1395-1385 and 1395-1495. . By reviewing theoretical literature and in the research model, the relationship between generating justice among generations in using natural resources and establishing sustainability of the budget will be examined. In the period under study, the non-resource primary balance to non-oil GDP (NRPB ) has always been negative , which means that the government has never been able to balances its costs without relying on oil revenues. At the second time section, the same indicator (as one of the symbols of budget instability) will be negative. Therefore, the Iranian government's budget has not been sustained during the studied period and will not be sustainable as the current trend continues. With the sustainability of the budget, the budget indicators will improve, meaning in its simplest sense, at the end of the oil reserves, the state can balance its budget without relying on oil revenues and even save significant amounts of oil revenues and add to its foreign exchange reserves. There is also an intergenerational right to use oil revenues will be reserved.

“Financial system” enforces long and stable restrictions through assigning numerical limitations on the fundamental indices of budget. After such restrictions are formed, the determined quantities are not changeable during the relevant time period and such determined quantities would be the guideline for the execution of financial policies. By being dependent on oil revenues in an unbalanced manner, Iran’s public finance has evolved in a way that it has made the country’s economy dependent in nature. The government’s budget has provided grounds for growth in prices and inflation through its dependence on oil revenues which is the main source of finance for public expenditures. On the other hand, with an increase in imports resulted from improvements in the oil sector and in order to neutralize the inflationary pressures and financing the Rial revenues of government’s budget, the country’s dependence on foreign sources has been intensified. In this study, by analyzing the resources and public consumption of the budget and the international transition, it has been suggested that in order to overcome the main structural problem of the budget (i.e. dependence on oil), three steps must be taken. First, transferring the minimum amount of resources coming from oil export to the government’s budget. Second, reforming the tax revenue system by expanding tax bases and eliminating exemptions. Third, increasing the productivity of current expenditures by establishing performance-based budgeting, executing it within a mid-term framework of governmental expenditures and transferring the capital asset projects and executing them within a public-private participation system.