مدل تصحیح خطای برداری

The main goal of this article is to investigate the impact of bank facilities on business cycles in the agricultural sector of Iran's economy. The statistical population in this research consists of the added value of the agricultural sector at constant prices of 2013, the working force, fixed capital and the facilities granted by banks to this sector, in the period of 1978-2018, which are extracted annually from the Central Bank and It has been analyzed using Eviews software. First, by using Hodrick-Prescott filter, business cycles are extracted separately, and then the model is estimated by vector error correction method. The adjustment coefficient related to the estimated equilibrium relationship in the agricultural sector is estimated as -0.44, which means that in each period, 44% of the imbalances in one period are adjusted in the next period. What is clear is that expansionary monetary policies in the form of banking facilities in Iran's economy are disciplined policies rather than active and diagnosis-based policies.

The effect of exchange rate change on prices, which is known as exchange rate pass-through in economic literature, has been one of the important factors of inflationary pressures in Iran's economy. In order to estimate the degree of exchange rate pass-through, a vector error correction model for Iran's macroeconomics with two long run structural relationships including the long run price relationship and the long run real production relationship. Considering that during the recent decades, Iran's economy has mainly witnessed the multiple exchange rate system, the estimation of the exchange rate pass-through based solely on the unofficial exchange rate and without considering the preferential rates cannot be relied upon. For this reason, the estimated model includes three exchange rates (the unofficial exchange rate, and tow preferential exchange rate (Nima and Mobadele) to exchange rate pass-through can be estimated separately for each rate. The results indicate that the degree of exchange rate pass-through for the preferential exchange rates (Mobadele and Nima) in the long run (six years) is equal to 8/9% and 8/4% and in the case of fixing preferential rates, the degree of exchange rate pass-through will decrease from 2/46% to 6/30%. The results also indicate that although the fixing of preferential exchange rates leads to a decrease in the degree of exchange rate pass-through during the stabilization period, but it will increase in the same proportion during the adjustment period of the preferential exchange rates.

This paper investigates the relative contributions of nominal exchange rates and relative price adjustments toward PPP in a VECM framework in Iran. In conducting empirical tests, annual time series data were used covering the period of 1357 to 1401. The cointegration test indicates the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and relative price. Also, the adjustment speed coefficient of the real exchange rate resulting from the difference in the adjustment speeds of the variables of the VECM model is around -0/2. This value indicates the slow adjustment process in such a way that it is expected that 80% of the current period's deviation from purchasing power parity will remain for the next year. On the other hand, the evidence from impulse response functions shows that relative price shocks lead to much longer real exchange rate deviations than nominal exchange rate shocks. Also, the nominal exchange rate in response to the relative price impulse is slowly on its long-term equilibrium path; While the relative price reacts to the impulse of the nominal exchange rate, it is placed on the path of its long-term equilibrium at a faster rate. In general, it can be said that to establish purchasing power parity, the relative price will play a more important role than the nominal exchange rate. Thus, Iranian policymakers must pay attention to price stabilization and the reduction of high inflation rates through appropriate macroeconomic policy.

In order to adopt the appropriate fiscal policy, one should know the correct relationship between the revenues and expenses of the government. The main goal of this study is to offer appropriate policy recommendations to reduce the budget deficit and resolve the imbalance between the government's revenues and expenses. In this research, the dynamic relationship and mutual effects between government revenues and government expenditures have been tested using the vector error correction (VEC) model. The results confirm the Tax-and-Spend Hypothesis for Iran. The political consequence of this hypothesis for Iran is that higher tax revenues lead to higher expenditures, which can cause an increase in the inflation rate and financial illusion in addition to the government's failure to resolve the budget deficit. Therefore, the government's efforts should be accompanied by appropriate reforms in public spending to enable productive investments and, as a result, sustainable economic growth. With increasing economic growth in the long term, it will be possible to increase tax revenues in order to compensate for the budget deficit.

The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.

Given the special and sensitive role of banks in the economic system of the country, any shock, disruption and inefficiency in the economic system has a direct impact on the activity of banks and financial institutions and phenomena such as high inflation or economic shocks and fluctuations such as sharp fluctuations in other markets, gold, and currency, will, directly and indirectly, affect the operating costs and cost of money, and ultimately the profitability of banks, In addition, due to the financial dependence of the manufacturing sectors on this important economic entity, any inefficiency or crisis in the banking system can lead to many problems in different sectors of the economy. This study has used Johansson-Joselius coefficient and vector error correction (VECM) and Q21397-Q11389 seasonal data to investigate the effect of some important financial performance indicators on Mellat Bank profitability. The results of this study show that variables of non-current facilities ratio to total facilities, debt-to-asset ratio and long-term deposit to total assets ratio and ROA have a negative relationship in the long run but between capital adequacy ratio, net operating income to total asset ratio and Facility on total deposits ratio and ROA There is a positive and significant relationship in the long run.

In order to implement inflation targeting policy, it is crucial for monetary policy makers to know how prices (CPI's components) respond to monetary policy shocks. In fact, due to market imperfections and price stickiness, monetary shocks could bring about real effects. In this paper, we use VAR framework and prices stickiness test to examine the impulse response functions of CPI's components to one standard error in liquidity (M2) by using seasonal data over the time period 1369-1390 (1990-2011). Our empirical findings show that 1) Monetary shocks have a lagged effect on disaggregated prices and most prices respond to a monetary shock with a considerable delay, and 2) There is a substantial difference among CPI's components response to monetary base shocks. Therefore, our findings imply the existence of price stickiness, but the intensity of stickiness in CPI's components is different. On the other hand, the difference in the market structure of production of goods and services can explain the difference in their price responses to monetary shocks.