هم انباشتگی

The educational system in some less developed and developing countries, including Iran, are expensive, inefficient, and weak, which in turn weakens the accomplishment of their educational system. In this view, this study was conducted with the aim of investigating the relationship between the costs of secondary education and school attendance in the provinces of Iran for the period 2006-2019. Long-term estimations using the panel pooled group mean test (Panel PMG) show that public expenditure on secondary education, household income, urbanization, public expenditure on health, and student-teacher ratio are statistically significant in explaining changes in school attendance. The coefficient of the main variable of the research, i.e. public education expenses, has a positive, significant, and trivial sign, which will reduce the quality of educational services provided in schools and, as a result, decrease the educational results. This result is not unexpected in Iran; because it is expected that more and higher public resources are needed to improve education measures. In general, the results showed that the state of the Ministry of Education's share of the government's general budget and GDP is not satisfactory, and with this state, it will not be possible to achieve educational justice. In order to fill the gap in providing quality education in Iran, there is a need for extensive interventions. Targeting secondary education by allocating more education budgets is important if the country is to expand access to secondary education, reduce dropouts and grade repetition, and increase enrollment rates. In addition, school officials must develop financial and administrative skills so that they receive, distribute, and use funds in more optimal ways.

This paper examines whether the gold coin futures prices in the Iran Mercantile Exchange can forecast accurately the gold coin spot prices at the maturity date. For this, it uses daily data of both futures and spot prices from Azar 1387 to Tir 1397. A cointegration analysis shows that in horizons shorter than 100 days, there is a significant one-to-one relation between these two prices which implies that the future prices contain some information about the spot prices at the maturity date. In addition, the future prices are compared with forecasts generated by the standard time series models to see which one is more accurate in forecasting the spot prices. The results show that in short horizons, the performance of the futures is better than the time series models, but this outperformance wanes as the horizon increases.

In recent decades, the relationship between economic growth and government spending has attracted the attention of many researchers to the point that it has led to many experimental studies in this field in developed and developing countries. The rising trend of government expenditure with high volatility in economic growth during the years after Islamic Revolution in Iran has created significant conditions that add to the need for a detailed study of this issue. This research is an attempt to study relation between the economic growth and government expenditure in Iran. In this regard, the empirical investigation of long-term and short-run relationships between the variables studied during the period 1969-2018 and using the nonlinear ARDL model in Iranian economy has been studied. The findings of this study showed that asymmetry was considered when examining the relationship between economic growth and government expenditures, so that the effect of negative and negative shocks of economic growth on government expenditures in the short and long run is asymmetrical. Results of the Granger's causality test showed that there is a one-way relationship from the side of economic growth to government expenditures, while this relationship is not in reversed. In other words, the results of this test confirm the Wagnerian approach and indicate that Keynesian law is not approved for the Iranian economy.

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the cost of fiscal policy reform, increasingly revealed the importance of discussion on "government debt sustainability" in the economic literature. Accordingly, this paper examines government debt sustainability in the form of a Fiscal Reaction Function (FRF). To do so, a fiscal reaction function has been estimated using a Johansen Juselius cointegration method in Iran for the period 1971-2014. The results showed that the government's reaction was sustainable to the three types of debt (i.e., debt to the central bank, debt to domestic banks and non-bank financial institutions, and foreign debt). However, the small regression coefficients indicate a weak sustainability. In other words, as the public debt/GDP ratio increases, government does not respond by improving the primary balance. This problem, due to the impact of public debt on long-run economic growth through various channels can be an alarm for decision and policy makers. Also, findings confirm that fiscal policy in Iran is pro-cyclical. Therefore, it is recommended that, with the aim of creating a sustainable framework for fiscal policy, "debt sustainability" and "Business cycles" be considered as main variables in the objective function of fiscal policies in Iran.
MethodologyThe issue of “fiscal sustainability” has taken on special importance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Although for fiscal sustainability is provided several definitions, almost all of these definitions are associated with fiscal policy. In a comprehensive definition, fiscal sustainability can be considered as a measure of fiscal dependence on the government's recent behaviors, compared to the last fiscal developments and changes in the macro-economic level. To empirically assess fiscal sustainability, the concept of “fiscal reaction function” can be used. Fiscal reaction functions usually specify, for annual data, the reaction of the primary balance/GDP ratio to changes in the one-period lagged public debt/GDP ratio, controlling for other influences. In other words, if the public debt/GDP ratio increases, government should respond by improving the primary balance, to arrest and even reverse the rise in the public debt/GDP ratio (Bohn, 1995, 2007). According to Burger, Stuart, Jooste and Cuevas (2011), the basic fiscal reaction function is in the following form:
Where:B/Y= Primary Balance/GDP
D/Y= Government Debt/GDP
=Output Gap
Government Debt/GDP is three types:Debt to the central bank/GDP (DCY)
Debt to domestic banks and non-bank financial institutions/GDP (DOY)
Foreign debt/GDP (DXY)
Results and discussionIn this section, we estimate fiscal reaction function using a Johansen Juselius cointegration method in Iran for the period 1971-2014. In the first step, the stationary of variables has been tested using the Ng-Perron and Lumsdaine and Papell tests. The results of stationary tests showed the four variables are non-stationary and only one variable is stationary. So the method of cointegration is a necessity. According to the results of unit root tests, fiscal reaction function has been estimated using a Johansen Juselius cointegration method. Johansen’s procedure builds cointegrated variables directly on maximum likelihood estimation instead of relying on OLS estimation. Finally, fiscal reaction function has been estimated as follows:Based on the estimated equation, it can be said that the government's reaction was sustainable to the three types of debt (debt to the central bank, debt to domestic banks and non-bank financial institutions and foreign debt). However, the small regression coefficients indicate a weak sustainability. Also, the positive coefficient of the output gap showed that fiscal policy in Iran is countercyclical.
ConclusionThe rapid build-up of government debt in an environment of financial instability and low growth has increased the need for an assessment of government debt sustainability. Accordingly, this paper examines government debt sustainability in the form of a fiscal reaction function (FRF). The results of the estimating Johansen Juselius cointegration method confirmed that fiscal policy was not sensitive to react to the accumulation of the government debt. Therefore, due to the impact of public debt on long-run economic growth through various channels, it is necessary that "debt sustainability" be considered as a main variable in the objective function of fiscal policies in Iran.

Market power refers to the ability to affecting to the market. The firm has a pricing power in the monopoly market. One of the types of monopolies is the cartel. Two important features of behavior in form of the cartel are the impact on the amount of production and price. In terms of production, the cartel controls the production through coordination among the members, and in terms of impact on prices, it affects the price of the market by controlling production. In this study, to investigate the market power of OPEC, this issue will be discussed that whether OPEC acts as a cartel, or not? Therefore, to measure the market power of OPEC, The behavior and coordination of OPEC members’ production decisions are being studied. The research hypotheses are as follows, there is coordination in behavior and production decisions between the production of OPEC and the production of OPEC members, and total production of OPEC determines oil prices in the global oil markets. To prove the first hypothesis, used ARDL bounds testing approach of co-integration, and for the second hypothesis, used Toda-Yamamoto tests. The data used in this study includes the production of OPEC members, global oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI), in the period of 1994-2016, quarterly and monthly and 1980-2016, annual. The results indicates that there is no long-term relationship between the production of OPEC members and total production of OPEC, also causality from oil prices to OPEC production, also the direction of causality is from oil prices to OPEC production.

Wagner law is the first model of government expenditures in the public finance literature. In addition to testing the traditional version of Wagner's law, also the augmented version of this law, which is introduced by Murthy (1994) is examined in order to find a long-term relationship between government spending and economic development in Iran. The main objective of this study is to evaluate a short-term and long-term relationship between government expenditures (per capita) and GDP (per capita) using annual data for the Iranian economy during the period 1392-1357. Therefore, in this article, the validity of this relationship is checked by six different formulations of the Wagner Law (the desire to increase government spending by economic growth), and the causality between variables are considered with using boundary F-test and error correction model (ECM). Among the studied models, the Wagner law is executable in terms of income elasticity only in Peacock and Musgrave version and in generalized version. The results of the Bound Test indicate that long-term relationship between the variables exists in three versions of Wagner’s law. In addition, causality test with using an error correction model represents a one-way path from the income on government spending for short periods in five models. Overall, the results show that the Wagner law is confirmed in the third group of models for short-run in the Iranian economy.

The limitation of financial resources of the government in developing countries, caused these governments to consider the issue of "efficient allocation of expenditures" as a very high priorities in these countries. Accordingly, this paper examines the impact of public expenditure reallocations on economic growth in Iran. To do so, a long-run relationship between the variables has been estimated using cointegration method for the period 1980-2014. The results show that reallocation of government resources have a significant positive effect on economic growth, under the condition of raising the educational expenditure compensated by the reducing military and consumption expenditures. In addition, the findings of the paper show a reduction in consumption, military and health expenditures, in the favor of increasing government investment expenditure, have a significant and positive impact on the economic growth. Finally, the findings support a significant and positive impact of human capital and openness on economic growth.

During two last decades, Iranians have faced with a wide and substantial increase in housing prices, especially in great metropolitans such as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Shiraz. This easily could be imputed to a high inflation which significantly impeded the access to housing for low and medium income families. This study uses a structural model to recognize the influential factors of such a rise in housing prices and to show whether there is any price bubble in market. The model consists of both supply and demand side determinants to explain the price changes across Iranian provinces over 1375-1390, in a panel data context. In particular, we use a longer and larger database which also includes more number of influential factors. Some specific features of data such as non-stationarity and cointegration have been also taken into account. Our results show that, in contrast to the common thought, there is no price bubble in the Iranian housing sector. That is, the structural model could well explain the rapid increase in Iranian house prices during the last decade. In particular, we find that the expansionary monetary policies of the government, the land price for urban uses, along with the increase of the real demand for housing are the main reasons of the past inflation in the sector. On the average, one percent increase in the urban land price or liquidity, ceteris paribus, leads to, respectively, 0.375 and 0.5 percent increase in house prices.

The real exchange rate equilibrium path reflects at each moment the value of the real exchange rate which is compatible with full employment of productive factors and equilibrium in balance of payments. The real exchange rate is viewed as a key indicator of external competitiveness. So, its misalignments may be rather costly. Both overvalued and undervalued currencies have their negative implications. In this article, the real exchange rate equilibrium relationships in US dollar are investigated according to Johansen Cointegration technique using the Behaviorally Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) during 1338-1391 with its fundamentals including net foreign assets, openness, terms of trade andproductivity. The results correspond to the theory and are in agreement with previous studies such as Clark and Macdonald (1998). The error correction term is -0.51 and significant. Since 1991, the real effective exchange rate has been less than the equilibrium real exchange rate, which shows depreciation. Specifically, the gap has been increasing drastically since the 1980s. Naturally, this has led to export reduction and import expansion. However, the positive point is that since 1991, this two rates have drawn much close together; in some years, the real rate has been even upper than the equilibrium.

Understanding the nature of the causal relationship among economic variables is crucial for the economic policy-makers and planners. So, this study investigates Granger causality between producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for the economy of Iran. From a policy-making point of view, the findings of the study may inform economic policy-makers in pursuing effective anti-inflationary policies. To this end, monthly data are used over the period 1990- 2011. The results of the cointegration test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables. According to Hsiao test, there is bi-directional causality between consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) in both short-run and long-run. Toda and Yamamoto test also indicate the bi-directional causal relationship between the variables. However, it seems that causality from PPI to CPI is stronger than that from CPI to PPI, supporting the Cushing and McGarvey (1990) hypothesis.

GDP growth and unemployment rate are both important factors that characterize economies. Okun (1962) examined data about GDP and unemployment rate and found that there was a negative relationship between these two variables. After that, economists reexamined this relationship and presented it in different forms such as difference version, gap version and production function form. Because of much debate that is done in recent years regarding the labour market, in this study with the aim of presenting scientific analysis of current conditions in Iranian economy, we used pesaran et al (2001) approach to estimate long-run and short-runOkun coefficients in an ARDL model and the data is for the period of 1974-2011. We found that there is long run relationship between variables in three models that we used. The results show that to reduse the unemployment rate to less than %10, GDP growth rate must be over %10. These results points to deterioration of current economic conditions. At the end, Analysis of Granger causality showed that there are unidirectional causality relationships in all three forms of Okun’s law.

Government financial sustainability refers to government flows of revenues and expenditures. According to the monetary theory of the price-level (MTPL) and financial theory of the price-level (FTPL), it can be stated that causes of increase in price level are government financial debt and monetary provision of debt. The purpose of this study is to investigate the financial sustainability of the government deficit. In order to investigate this relationship and because of dynamics of the model, dynamic cointegration models and dynamic ordinary least square models (DOLS) are applied. For this purpose, we used data from the annual period 1971 -2013. Empirical results for the variables indicate that variables for government’s expenditures and government’s revenues are first order cointegrated which suggest that there exists a long run relationship between the variables. For this purpose, three kinds of government revenues including tax revenues, taxes, and oil revenues, and tax incomes, oil and seigniorage are regressed over costs which result in weak financial sustainability, strong financial sustainability and inconsistency in government financial sustainability, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended that in order to maintain financial sustainability, governments invest oil revenues, to the extent possible, in capital assets and by reforming their cost structures attempt to balance their income and cost flows. Also, since government financial debt and debt financing through seigniorage are two important reasons for inflation, governments should be more disciplined in their financial structure.

This paper aims to investigate the interaction effects among market concentration, profitability, research and development (R&D), and advertising in Iran’s manufacturing sector. For this purpose, the quarterly data on Iran’s manufacturing sector was gathered in ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) codes, then the interaction effects of structure, conduct and performance was analyzed for industrial groups by Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) over the period 1996-2007. The results show that innovation and R&D are related to concentration, profitability and advertising within industries in the long-run. On the other hand, concentration and profitability explain 50% of variations in innovation and R&D; however, profitability, as a performance indicator, has the most effect on R&D activities in long run. Therefore, our finding is in line with Chicago-U.C.L.A theory.

In recent decades, environmental risks and hazards are more visible. These damages caused by a combination of factors such as population growth, economic growth, energy, and industrial activities. This study discusses long-run equilibrium relationship, short-term dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption, economic growth and the environment (carbon dioxide emissions) in Iran, by using time series data during 1971-2009, through Co integration test. Co integration test demonstrates that a long-run relationship exists among the three variables. It is obvious that carbon dioxide emissions will be increased by positive shock of energy consumption and economic growth, by a one percent increase in energy consumption and economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions will increase 55 and 43 percent respectively. The result of this study is important because of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from energy use and economic development matters. In other words, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the government should reduce the amount of Petroleum products in energy consumption, and it also improves the efficiency of using energy.

Recent developments in the econometric theory lead to presenting estimators which are appropriate for the small samples and time series with the convergence relation. Compared with other cointegration vector estimators, DOLS method used in small samples and prevents the creation of simultaneity bias. It has normal distribution and can include variable with different cointigration order in the estimation process. This paper reviews the characteristics of a panel dynamic ordinary least squares method employs it in the form of an econometric model of the effects of gray economy (corruption is proxy for gray economy) on the human development index in the 9 developing countries over the period 2002 to 2013. The results show that the impact of corruption index and inflation on the human development index is negative in the studied countries.

Defense expenses account for one of the considerable and important public expenditures in most countries which play an important role in maintaining the internal and external security and economic stability and growth directly or indirectly. Undoubtedly, when the security of a country is threatened, more defense expenses are justified and economic and social investments decrease, resulting in lower economic growth. The study of impact of defense expenses on economic growth in Iran is important and necessary for two reasons: Iran's strategic position in the Middle East and the high defense expenses in government budget. For this purpose, Iran’s defense expensesduring 1959-2010are estimated by an augmented Solow model (proposed by Knight, Loayza and Villanueva). Findings show, using co-integration Johanson's and Granger Causality of Toda and Yamamoto Test model, there is a positive impact of defense expenses on economic growth in the long run and bidirectional causality between variables. Thus, although it is inevitable to allocate some portion of the annual public budget for defense expenses, its over-use will have negative impacts on the economic growth, causing stagflation in country.

Governments can increase revenue or decrease spending or use both of these ways to control budget deficit. Sometimes it has been seen that revenue increas(or spending cuts)has affected the other variable and nullified the policy chosen for controlling the budget deficit. Therefore the causal relationship between revenues and spending should be measured before any budget policy-making and then according to causality direction the appropriate policy should be chosen. In this research we investigate Granger causal relationship between government spending and government revenue in 77 developing Countries which are divided in two groups: OPEC Members and Non OPEC Ones. Co-integratin approach and error correction model (ECM) has been used for determining the causality direction between these two variables in developing Countries. The results of Granger causality test show that in Non OPEC Members Countries there is uni directional relationship between these two variables and government spending affects the government revenue.

Due to importance of energy factor in agricultural sector and considering the increasing energy price in recent years, analysis of energy demand is very important. In this paper in order to analyse agricultural energy demand, OLS, FMOLS and Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach has been used and results of these methods have been compared. Data on energy price index, energy consumption and agricultural value added for priod 1355-1388 were used. Results showed that long run and short run price elasticity of energy consumtion are between -0.3 to -0.327 and -0.09 to -0.102 respectively. Also income elasticity of energy consumption estimated egual to 0.7. Results of OLS estimation of Log-Log model, Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach are very similar. Because of price inelasticity of energy consumption especially in the shortrun, price policies are not likely to reduce energy consumtion considerably. Price policies can be more effective in the longrun, but this is subject to improvemeats in the energy consumption technology.

Subsidized energy carriers’ prices has lead to increasing demand for them specially in transport sector. Due to enforcement of targeting subsidies plan، price of energy carriers and also gasoil price will increase. Economic analysis of this increase need to modeling energy consumption reaction to price changes. In this paper gasoil demand function has been estimated for Iranian road transport subsector. For modeling the gasoil demand function Engle-Granger، Johansen and ARDL cointegration approaches and structural time series modeling (STSM) has been used. Results showed that gasoil demand is price inelastic. Price and Income elasticities of gasoil demand has been estimated -0. 5 and 0. 93 respectively. Estimated elasticities throught different techniques are not very different. Besides STSM results showed that gasoil underlying demand trend isn’t stochastic and estimated elasticities by STSM are lower than cointegration approaches. Because gasoil demand is price inelastic، in order to reducing gasoil demand، relying on price policies would not be effective.