پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی

Understanding the relationship between institutions and economic performance, as well as how institutional quality differs across countries, has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Northern countries support economic progress due to having strong institutions. On the other hand, weak institutions in southern countries prevent their progress. Therefore, it is very important for policymakers to identify the factors affecting institutional quality and to understand how institutional quality affects economic growth in order to develop efficient economic policies. The main motivation of the present study is to understand the effect of improving institutional quality on Iran's economic growth through total factor productivity using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. In this regard, the data were aggregated into two regions (Iran and the rest of the world) and ten sectors based on the research objective. To achieve the main objective of the study, two scenarios were evaluated: 1) Increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in Iran (due to improving institutional quality); 2) Increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in other regions of the world (due to improving institutional quality). The results show that improving institutional quality through increasing the growth rate of production factor productivity in Iran leads to higher economic growth in Iran and its sub-sectors.

Today, preferential and free trade agreements play an effective role in expanding trade in goods and services at the international level and as common practice in business planning and facilitating trade. The purpose of this article is to examine the trade and welfare effects of Iranchr('39')s free trade agreement with Turkey, India and Pakistan. For this purpose, using the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model and version 10 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), three scenarios of concluding a free trade agreement with each of these countries were simulated. The results show that most of the welfare effects of the free trade agreement between Iran and Turkey are  2027 million Dollars, India is 1311 million Dollars and Pakistan is very small, about  38 million Dollars . On this basis, it was suggested that the Iranian government first enter into a free trade agreement with Turkey on mineral products, agriculture and services. And with India be centered on industrial, mineral, food and service products, and on rice and cereals by eliminating customs tariffs more restrictively and over time. Regarding Pakistan, it is necessary to identify the trade field between the two countries during trade negotiations and to provide the term for the success of the bilateral free trade agreement between the two countries by increasing bilateral trade exchanges.

The agricultural sector is very important in terms of its contribution to production and employment as well as food security; therefore, assessing the impacts of trade liberalization under the agricultural sub-sector is of particular importance. On this direct, in this study, the effects of importation tariff reduction under the agricultural sub-sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare and trade balance, based on the model of the World Trade Analysis project and version 10 of its database, in two scenarios (reduction 25% and 50% reduction of tariff rates) are analyzed. The results of this study display that the most negative impact on Iran's welfare is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union in the sub-sector of “corn, barley, millet and other cereals”. Moreover, the most positive impact on Iran's welfare is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union under the “wheat” sector. In addition, the most positive effect on the welfare of the Eurasian Economic Union is been related to the reduction of Iran's importation tariff rate from the Eurasian Economic Union under the “wheat” sector, Also, there is no significant negative impact on the welfare of the Eurasian Economic Union in different scenarios under the agricultural sector. In Iran, the most positive effect on trade balance changing is been related to the activity of vegetables and the most negative effect on trade balance changing is related to activity of wheat.

Preferential trade agreements with major trade partners can play an important role in maintaining and deepening of current trade. The decision to invest is one of the key decisions in the field of economics and business. Turkey is one of Iran's important trading partners. This can lead to an increase in investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey to Iran, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs for domestic investors. This is especially important in the case of Iran. The present study intends to examine the effects of the trade agreement between Iran and Turkey (that is one of Iran's most important trading partners) on the amount of investment in agriculture, industry, and services since 2011- 2025 in Iran, so a preferential trade scenario for Iran is simulated according to the agreement. Preferential trade agreement between Iran and Turkey will facilitate trade relations, and this can lead to increased investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs of domestic investors. The result of the agreement shows an increase in investment, and it is predicted that this investment will be made more in the production of industrial goods.

Reducing or eliminating tariff rates on imported and exported goods is one of the most important issues that can act as a stimulus between the production, employment and export sectors. Preferential trade agreement between Iran and Turkey will facilitate trade relations between the two countries in order to encourage domestic producers and increase their motivation Compared to other competitors to improve the quality of goods and increase production in various sectors to attract domestic and foreign markets. The present study intends to investigate the trade effects of the economic agreement between Iran and Turkey on the production, export and import of the agricultural and industrial sectors using a dynamic GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model for the period 2011-2025. As an application of the model, a preferential trade scenario for Iran is simulated in accordance with the agreement. The results of the agreement show that although the individual components of the agreement will reduce production in a few cases, in general, almost all sectors will increase production in 2025