چرخه های تجاری

Balance of payments shocks can impact economies in varying degrees depending on their structural characteristics, often leading to the formation of business cycles. These cycles cause key macroeconomic variables, such as output, inflation, and exchange rates, to deviate from their long-term trends. The exchange rate policy and regime play a critical role in determining how these shocks propagate and generate business cycles. This research employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks—including oil exports, non-oil exports, and terms of trade shocks—on major macroeconomic variables in Iran under various exchange rate regimes (ERRs). Using welfare loss criteria and impulse-response functions, the findings indicate that a fixed real ERR results in the least welfare losses under different balance of payments shocks. Additionally, a managed floating ERR performs better than a floating ERR, whereas a fixed nominal ERR incurs the greatest welfare losses. The results also suggest that minimal central bank intervention minimizes the recessionary impact of negative shocks in the short run, although it leads to higher inflationary effects.

Military spending has an impact on government and public sector budgets and can also affect the business and economic cycles of countries. Therefore, according to the importance of the subject, present study investigated effects of the government's military expenditures on Iran's business cycles in the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in the 1978 to 2023 in the form of three scenarios. In first scenario, government expenditures were not separated and a standard model was estimated. In the second, government expenditures were separated into military and civilian, and in the third, a war shock was included in the model. Based on the results, the second model had a higher explanatory power for Iran's economy. According to the instantaneous response functions, the shock to government military expenditures has a negative effect on investment and wages and a positive effect on output, consumption, government expenditures, and employment. It was suggested to increase the deterrence by maintaining the current levels of the government's military expenditures, because the effects of increasing the military budget on economic variables are less than the shock of war. When there is a war, the ratio of military expenses to total government expenses will increase.

Business cycles are the periodical fluctuations of the overall economic activity that can happen in order to create stagnation or prosperity in the economy of countries. Policy makers and economic planners are always looking for determining and implementing the best anti-cyclical policies in order to avoid severe fluctuations in GDP and help to strengthen the level of stability and stability of the economy. The goal of the current research was to analyze the effect of Control of the movement of capital on Iran's business cycles during the period of 1999:1-2022:1. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lags model (ARDL) was used. The results indicated the anti-recession effect of Control of the movement of capital in the long term. Also, the variables of sound money and the legal integrity have had an anti-recession effect on business cycles in the long term. On the other hand, oil rent has had a stagnant effect in the long term. The error correction results also indicated that in each period 16.3% of short-term imbalances were adjusted and converged to their long-term trend.

In this research, first business and credit cycles are extracted with a non-linear approach and in the form of Markov switching method, then the feedback of economic cycles from each other in the form of a vector autoregression model with regime change (MS-VAR) is comprehensively analyzed and will be reviewed. The data of this research have been collected quarterly for the years 1379 to 1399 in the economy of Iran. The results of the research indicate the existence of a non-linear and asymmetric relationship during different regimes between the variables of economic growth rate, growth of banking facilities and bank defaults, and also the results of the model estimation indicate that the imposition of a positive shock on the default rate and the growth rate of banking facilities causes There is no reaction in the economic variables and only sudden changes in the economic growth result in the reaction of the default rate and growth rate of credit facilities. Examining the relationship between the cycles has shown the alignment of the business and credit cycles and the non-alignment of the business and credit default cycles.

The balance of payments shocks affects different economies and can lead to business cycles. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks, including the shocks of oil exports, non-oil exports, imports, net capital account, real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index, on total output and creation of business cycles. Therefore, in this study it will be tried to evaluate the effect of balance of payments shocks, and their importance, on creation of fluctuations in total production in Iranian economy. For this purpose, the structural vector auto-regressive method has been used during the seasonal period of 2001:02-2021:04. The results based on impulse response functions show that the shocks real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index have negative effect on output and lead to recession cycle in the economy. Also, the shocks of non-oil export, oil export, import and net capital account will be caused to boom cycle in the economy. Meanwhile, the exchange rate shock has had the most effect on output. Finally, the real exchange rate, oil export and real interest rate variables have had the most share in explanation of output variance, while the effect of import has been raised in the next.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear business cycle dynamics due to the presence of financial frictions in Iran's economy. For this purpose, a NARDL model is estimated by using seasonal data during 1991q4- 2021q3. Also, this study used of the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans as a measure of financial friction. The results of the Bounds test indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between the model variables. The results of the model estimation show that the GDP has an asymmetric behavior in the short and long term. Based on this, in the short and long term, there is a significant relationship between GDP and the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans and financial market conditions have a significant non-linear effect on the dynamics of business cycles. According to the results, the effects of financial friction shock on business cycles are asymmetric, and therefore the predictive efficiency of all linear models is questioned. Finally, this study shows that economic prosperity can reduce the ratio of non-performing loans to total paid facilities over time, and this most likely reflects the effect of prosperity on employment and business conditions, and as a result, the ability of borrowers to repay loans.

Government expenditures as an important component of fiscal policy can play an important role in macroeconomic stabilization. Taking cyclical features and behaviors of various types of government expenditures into account, ameliorates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in confronting with economic shocks. This research tries to evaluate the cyclical features of different types of government expenditures and influential factors in Iran's economy by using Iran’s time series data from 1359 to 1398 and a two-stage autoregressive distributed lags model. Based upon the findings of this research, all types of government expenditures in Iran, behave procyclically. Government investment aggravates the fluctuation of fiscal cycles more than government consumption, and the procyclical effect of government investment in machinery is more than the procyclical effect of government investment in construction. In addition, the findings show that adding control variables, affects the logarithm coefficient of GDP in all models and therefore plays an important role in the cyclical behavior of various types of government expenditures. The government debt to GDP ratio and the government income to GDP ratio reduce cyclical fluctuations and the government size, inflation rate and elections intensify cyclical fluctuations.

The 2012 UN sanctions on Iran have forced the country into a long-lasting economic recession during the last decade, causing both demand and supply to be suppressed in a general equilibrium relationship. However, as the sanctions targeted trade, oil revenue, and budget deficit, the economy’s supply-side constraints are of first-order magnitude, causing a reduction in oil income and a rise in the government budget deficit. This study uses observations from manufacturing plants in Iran from 2003 to 2013 to quantify the share of production factors in explaining production deviation. We employ a general equilibrium model in the literature of business cycle accounting, which quantifies wedges in different markets. The UN sanctions (Jan. 2012) occurred during observations, allowing us to assess changes after the sanctions using the event study model. Besides, we simulate counterfactual experiments with each market’s wedge to obtain a share of each wedge in explaining production changes. Results show that productivity is the main explanatory factor of the production gap during the sanctions. Results for the other factors of production (i.e., labor, investment, and inputs) indicate that the input market contains the highest frictions after the sanctions; we do not find evidence that the labor and capital markets are affected in the years following sanctions. However, the rest of the results are not robust except for the productivity, which may be due to the lack of a more extended panel of data after the sanctions. The findings are consistent with the rest of the literature on Iran’s sanctions.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of banks' liquidity shock on their excess reserves and the business cycles in Iran's economy. In order to benefit from the functional tasks of the banking system in the real sector of the economy, it is necessary to control the liquidity in the hands of the bank. The liquidity management by the bank includes predicting liquidity needs and providing them at the lowest possible cost. The main reason for the liquidity risk is that most bank resources are provided from short-term deposits, while the bank facilities are used to invest in assets that have a relatively low degree of liquidity. Therefore, a main task of the bank should be creating a balance between short-term financial obligations and long-term investments. Maintaining insufficient amounts of liquidity exposes the bank to the risk of not being able to fulfill its obligations and pushes it toward bankruptcy. Also, maintaining large amounts of liquidity causes inefficient allocation of resources, reduction of the interest rate on deposits and, as a result, losing the market.

In order to analyze the results, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method was used in terms of the structure of the banking system in the period of 1989-2020 based on the frequency of the seasonal data. In the statistical analysis section, the impacts of the impulse from liquidity on the surplus bank reserves, business cycles, and a set of banking and macroeconomic variables were compared and evaluated. The current research model has five parts including household sectors, producers of intermediate goods and final goods, banking sector, government and central bank. The household sector maximizes the expected discounted utility function with respect to the inter-period budget constraint. Intermediary companies seek to minimize the production cost function, and the company producing the final product deals with pricing based on Rotenberg's price stickiness theory. In order to maximize the expected profit function, the banking sector makes its decisions to determine the optimal interest rates of deposits and facilities for both households and companies. It should be mentioned that regarding bank rates for deposits and facilities, although the range of interest rates for deposits and facilities is communicated to the banks, the banks act based on other variables. They have the option to consider the maximum expected profit function based on their requirements, such as the amount of the fixed balance in the customer's account of facility reception or the interest paid to depositors. Finally, the government and the central bank are face with an inter-period budget constraint.

Based on the obtained results, the momentum of liquidity induced by the banking system has led to an increase in their surplus reserves and the occurrence of business cycles and deviations in production. Also, the liquidity shock has led to an increase in the inflation rate and exchange rate in the economy. It is recommended to eliminate the effect of liquidity shocks of the banking system on the economy by using precautionary and unconventional policies. In order to improve the relationship between the Central Bank and the banks, managing the overdrafts of the banks from the Central Bank by guaranteeing the overdrafts and regular financing is an important and fundamental task in the agenda of the Central Bank. The intelligent monitoring of the facilities and transactions in the banking network by the Central Bank can correct the asset and capital structure of banks, improve the risk management system, transparency of financial reporting in banks, organize the non-banking activities of banks and their subsidiaries, and prevent the entry of resources into speculative activities. Also, selling the surplus assets of banks is considered as an important act to reform the functioning of the banking system.

The liquidity shock from the banking system has led to an increase in their excess reserves, the emergence of business cycles and fluctuations in production, and increased inflation rate and exchange rate in the economy. Based on the results, it is recommended to prevent liquidity shocks from the banking system by using conservative and unconventional policies. Since an important part of creating liquidity in the country's economy has been done by banks in the past years, controlling the creation of money and liquidity by banks can play an important role in reducing the growth of liquidity and inflation. Therefore, there is a need for structural reforms and the supervision of the banking system. According to the proposed economic theories and the results obtained from this study, if a change is made in the credit risk, liquidity of commercial banks in money creation, and therefore the profit margin of the banks, monetary policy may be able to directly influence the interest rate in the credit market. In this case, an asymmetry may arise. An increase in the policy-based interest rate always leads to an increase in the interest rate in the credit market because commercial banks have to compensate the costs of re-borrowing and have to earn at least a profit. But if the liquidity risk and credit risk of commercial banks increase due to increased uncertainty, or if the level of banks' requested interest increases, a reduction in the base rate may not be immediately accompanied by a reduction in the credit market rate.

The increasing integration of financial markets and recent financial crises has created a new wave of researchers' attention to the issue of spillover and contagion in financial markets, to be able to better choose risk hedging instruments whit predicting market trends. Policymakers and market participants are also increasingly paying attention to the spillover effects and how they behave during different periods of economic boom and busts. Therefore, the present study aims to estimate the spillover effects between foreign exchange and stock markets in the Iranian economy and seeks to study how the spillover between these two markets behaves in the business cycles of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, by studying the daily data of 1389-1399 in which the Iranian economy is facing two periods of economic boom and two periods of economic recession, the daily spillover of foreign exchange and stock markets has been estimated and analyzed based on dynamic spillover econometric approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). According to the results, in general, the spillover effect between two markets exists, but the spillover rate from the foreign exchange market to the stock market is higher than the spillover from the stock market to the foreign exchange market. Also, the spillover and, of course, the dependence of the two markets during the recession was time-varying and is more severe than during the boom. These results have important implications for policymakers and market participants and show that it is necessary to consider the relationship between the foreign exchange market and stock market according to the state of the business cycle of the economy in investment policies and decisions. Also, it is not optimal to adopt a fixed and predetermined approach, both for macro policies and for investment strategies, in these markets.

Iran's economy has suffered many economic fluctuations for many years. Therefore, stabilization studies about the country's economy must have a significant contribution. One of the ways of economic stabilization is taxation. Among the types of taxes, automatic stabilization taxes are especially considered. This research aims to measure the effects of taxes and take a look at automatic stabilizer taxes especially. Economic data from 1372:1 to 1397:4 was used to conduct the paper. The SVAR model has also been used to estimate the research model. The results showed that the best automatic stabilizer tax is the Income tax.

In this research, the nature of Iran's fiscal policy has been evaluated in business cycles in the period of 1999: Q2- 2021:Q1. For this purpose, the specified model of Hristov (2013) has been used, in which adjustments have been applied due to the dependence of Iran's economy on oil revenues, and the time series of disposable income and consumption of the private sector from the household budget data published by the Iranian Statistics Center. , has been extracted. Also, the VECMX approach has been used to calculate the momentum of expenditures, tax and oil revenues. The results showed that the government spending in periods of economic boom and recession have a positive and significant effect on the growth of private sector consumption, in other words, fiscal policy in Iran is Keynesian in nature. But the intensity of the effects of government expenditure impulses on the growth of private sector consumption e is greater in periods of prosperity than in periods of recession. Also, the number of interruptions in the impact of government expenditure impulses on the growth of private sector consumption is different in the period of prosperity and recession, and this amount is more in the period of recession. In addition, the evaluation of other fiscal policy variables shows that the impulses of tax revenues on the growth of private sector consumption were not significant in business cycles, and the impulses of oil revenues are also positive and significant with four interruptions only in the period of prosperity.

The economy of a country undergoes many fluctuations over time. Due to dependence on oil revenues, war, embargo and other economic and political tensions, Iran's economy has been fluctuating greatly and experiencing many periods of prosperity and recession in the last thirty years. One of the duties defined for governments in public finance is economic stabilization. Economic stabilization makes the path of economic growth smoother. The smoothing of the growth path also makes the economic environment more attractive for investment and production. Governments have different instrument for economic stabilization. These instruments affect the supply and demand system. One of the policies that affects the demand side of the economy is the financial policies. These policies are divided into two categories: discretionary and non-discretionary. Discretionary financial policies were criticized by economists such as Friedman. Critics state that discretionary policies do not have the appropriate speed to stabilize the economic fluctuations. Automatic stabilizers, however, are not discretionary policies and can respond appropriately to criticism. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of the automatic stabilization of financial policies, especially tax policies, on Iran's business cycles.

The data collection of this research was done through library work. The data were collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the National Statistics Center. The data were seasonal, ranging from the spring of 1993 to the autumn of 2018. The business cycle of Iran's economy was extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. According to the studies conducted, the ʎ of the extraction filter was 677. The unit root was calculated using the KPSS test. All the variables at this level were stationary. By estimating a SVAR model, we tried to check the dynamic relationships among the variables. The tools that were used in structural vector autoregressive models were impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition. The counterfactual analysis was based on historical decomposition.

The SVAR model was formulated with the impulse response functions for twenty periods. According to the results, the effect of the government expenditure shock on the business cycle is low, but it shows up positive. The effect of the indirect tax shock on the cycle of GDP is very small and negligible. The effect of the direct tax shock on the business cycle is estimated counter-cyclically and found to be of a low effect.The results of the variance decomposition show that, in the first period, more than 92% of the change in the business cycle is explained by itself, 5% by the government expenditure shock, 1% by the direct taxes shock, and very small amounts by the indirect taxes shock. After 20 periods, the contribution of the business cycle in explaining its own changes decreases by less than 5%. Most of this share is added to the share of the government expenditure shock, raising it to 9.27% to explain the changes in the business cycle. After twenty periods, direct and indirect taxes are only equal to 2 and 1%, respectively, and they serve as the cause of changes in the production cycle.Historical decomposition shows that in the period from 1993 to 2018, direct taxes had a small contribution to the business cycles of Iran's economy, but there were countercyclical effects on the business cycle different years. These effects can be seen during both boom and recession. Indirect taxes have had counter-cyclical effects only in a few years, which have only been anti-prosperity. Historical decomposition shows that government spending has been able to exert anti-cyclical effects in some cases, though negligible.

According to empirical studies and the financial structure of the Iranian government, it was expected that the effects of stabilizing taxes on the production cycle would be insignificant. The tax ratio on GDP in Iran is about one third of the usual rate in the world. What matters was the way these taxes were effective; they affect the GDP in a pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical way. In this research, an attempt was made to investigate the role of taxes and the automatic stabilization of the government's financial policies in the economy of Iran. The results showed that, in terms of quantity, the government spending has a greater effect on stabilizing the economy (although this effect is small). However, in terms of counter recession effects, direct taxes can have a good stabilizing effect on the production cycle in the economy, although it is natural that the contribution of few tax revenues from the government's revenues in terms of quantity does not have a significant effect on the current economy of Iran. By increasing the share of tax revenues from the total revenues of the government, it is hoped that the counter recessionary effects of direct taxes will help stabilize (automatically) Iran's economy and reduce some of the economic fluctuations of the country's production. It is suggested that the government's financial policy should be made with special attention to direct taxes. By increasing the share of direct taxes, there will be fairer taxation as well as a relative improvement in fluctuations at the country's macroeconomic level.

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of Islamic financial instruments inthe occurrence of business cycles in the Iranian economy. In this regard, theemphasis has been on Islamic participation bonds offered by the Central Bank. Forthis purpose, statistical data from the period 1992-2020 and structural vectorautoregression model (SVAR) were used. The results of this study showed that theimpetus from the supply of participation bonds as a tool for monetary policy and anIslamic financial instrument has led to the fact that the amount of business cycles inthe Iranian economy is not moderated. In fact, the results showed that the variablesof budget deficit, exchange relationship and price were the most important variablesaffecting business cycles in the Iranian economy. The results showed thatparticipation bonds could not act as an anti-cyclical policy tool in the Iranianeconomy. Considering the results of how Islamic financial instruments affectbusiness cycles in the Iranian economy, it is necessary to recognize the impact ofgovernment budget deficit and its financing.

Investigating the volatility and irregular fluctuations of business cycles is one of the most important issues in macroeconomic policy making. in previous models that have been examined, the real growth rate of the economy is constant, while the shocks that affect the real growth rate the changes in this state, which creates the variance and the stability state of the economy. It was not fixed.In this study, using Markovian regime change in variance (MS-GARCH) models, the stability of fluctuations in different regimes governing the growth of Iran's real gross product with seasonal intervals for the years 1383:1-1399:4 has been investigated. the comparison between the models has been done using two features, RMSE and MAE.The results indicate that the stability coefficient of the regime with high volatility (unstable) is equal to the stability coefficient with mild volatility (stable), and since the probability of entering a stable regime is 2.5 times higher than the probability of entering an unstable regime, therefore, macroeconomic policy makers should pay more attention to the consequences of the policies adopted due to the costs of exiting the recession. Because the desire to enter the stages of recession is not only much higher, but the persistence to remain in recession periods is also 4 times more than in boom periods.

The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been studied. The estimation results show that the Iranian economy has three regimes, moderate growth and high economic growth, so that the moderate growth regime should use a fixed exchange rate regime، to increase economic growth by increasing stability and increasing investment. During the recession and in the range of -0.16 to 14% of inflation, the fixed system is suitable and in the rest of the floating-rate inflation rates it is suitable for economic growth by increasing the competitiveness of domestic products against foreign products that have been weakened due to inflation Estimated results for high growth period show that in the inflation range of 5 to 44%, the floating system has the best performance for economic growth due to increased competitiveness of domestic production against foreign products.

Regardless of different theoretical views regarding the impact of monetary policies on the economy, these policies are currently considered tools to influence variables and the structure of the economy. The main objectives of implementing such economic policies, similar to other policy instruments, are to control adverse economic fluctuations, establish relative stability in price levels, and maintain production within its optimal path. With such goals in mind, it is clear that following the detection of any adverse economic fluctuation, monetary instruments are one of the options available to policymakers to control such fluctuations.On the other hand, academic literature on monetary policies and the difference in adopting monetary instruments in response to business cycles disregard the distinction among countries (for instance based on their level of development etc.). The accepted advice in the economic literature is that countries should adopt counter-cyclical monetary policies. In other words, in times of economic prosperity, it is recommended that monetary authorities eliminate inflation by increasing interest rates and reducing interest rates in times of economic recession to stimulate production to return to its sustainable path. This recommendation is attributed to the study by Wexel (1907). Despite all the developments in the field of monetary theories in the last century, this recommendation has remained unchallenged and was part of Chicago's plan that emerged from the Great Depression of 1933. Keynesian IS and LM models support counter-cyclical monetary policies. However, Fisher (1977) and Phelps and Taylor (1977) (in the presence of rational expectation), along with Keynesians Woodford (2001) and Giannoni and Woodford (2002), opposed monetary policies as a cycle to stabilizean  active economy and recommend it.

Note that this emphatic policy recommendation does not consider any specific classification among countries. However, there is evidence that countries have adopted monetary instruments differently in response to similar business cycles, depending on their level of development (or other economic indicators). In other words, there are a number of empirical studies indicating that in the presence of business cycles, developed countries have implemented counter-cyclical (or often cycle-independent) monetary policies, while developing ones have adopted this approach and implemented pro-cyclical monetary policies.In this regard, the present study investigates the cyclical situation of monetary and fiscal policies in Iran. To achieve this goal, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with three variables has been estimated using data derived from 1352 to 1396.

The results of the study show that correlation coefficient between fiscal and monetary structural movements are very low and approximated to zero. T test show that none of these coefficients had any statistical difference with zero. These findings show that proxies(equipments) for fiscal and monetary policy in Iran are changing independent of business cycles.

The results from model estimation confirm that monetary and fiscal policies in Iran demonstrate a behavior independent of the cycles.The results also show that these policies, despite the independent nature of the cycle, have the potential for economic stabilization.

One of the goals of government intervention in the economy, which is done by tax instruments, is to create economic stability. Now the question arises whether taxes have been used as a tool for economic stabilization? For this purpose, the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The interesting results of this study are that, unlike empirical studies conducted in some other countries, direct taxes have not had a significant effect on reducing fluctuations in economic cycles. Also, the effect of indirect taxes on economic cycles is faster than direct taxes. The policy proposal of this research is to use more of the country's tax capacity to better perform the government's stabilizing task in the economy, especially the reform of tax bases.

The present study examines the determinants of non-performing loans from the public sector with emphasis on fluctuations in asset markets in the period 1397: 4-1384: 1. For this purpose, in order to extract the exchange rate and stock index fluctuations, the Daubechies discrete wavelet transform model has been used. Finally, the Markov switching model has been used to investigate the effect of research variables on non-performing loans from the public sectors. The growth of the oil sector in the country has a negative and significant effect in the high regime and a positive and significant effect in the low regime. Improvement and growth of the service and industrial sectors in all levels and regimes of non-performing loans from the public sector has a negative and significant impact. Also, increasing the size of the government has a positive and significant effect if the non-performing loans from the public sector be in a high level and regime. In the case of sanctions, short-term exchange rate fluctuations, which are mainly due to exchange rate increases, can reduce non-performing loans from the public sector. Exchange rate fluctuations in the conditions of sanctions, if they continue, regardless of the regime and the level of non-performing loans from the public sector, will cause a significant increase in non-performing loans. Also, short-term stock index fluctuations reduce non-performing loans from the public sector in all regimes. the medium-term fluctuations of the stock index, it also reduces non-performing loans from the public sector when the non-performing loans are in the low level. If exchange rate fluctuations are not due to external factors such as sanctions in all periods of fluctuations and all levels of non-performing loans from the public sector, it can increases non-performing loans.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship and effects of financial cycles on economic growth cycles by using uncertainty in the model. One of the appropriate techniques in the model is the Bayesian Model Averaging.This study consider the strong affecting factors of the financial cycles on the economic growth cycles in Iran during period 2009 to 2018. The studied variables are GDP, Total Index of Tehran Stock Exchange, Average Cost per Square Meter, Govermental and nongovernmental Current Credit, oil Revenues and Government current payments.First, the cycles are extracted by using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter.Then, the relationship between financial cycles and economic growth cycles is investigated using the Granger causality test. The results show bilateral causal relationship between the Variables Exception of current credit with economic growth cycles.Finally, estimation of eight regressions and Bayesian model averaging of the coefficients show that all five explanatory variables have been identified as the most important factors on the economic growth cycles in Iran.Also,we determine the variables of the Stock Exchange Index,current credit and current payments have the positive effect on the economic growth cycles, and the variables of the housing and oil revenues cycles have the negative effect on the economic growth cycles index. The results of this study can be used by macroeconomic planners from a policy viewpoint.