asymmetric effects

One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Because exchange rate fluctuations affect the demand of the entire economy through imports; Export and demand of money and change in the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the supply side of an economy affect the cost of imported intermediate goods channel, so the result of these two effects on production depends on the initial economic conditions of the country.Exchange rate impulses are of particular importance due to their adverse effects on the performance of economic variables and economic stability, because they cause uncertainty in the relative price trend, growth in production costs, decrease in profits, increase in risk in production, disruption in decision-making processes and deprivation of the ability to plan and The motivation to invest in economic activities is reduced and due to the data communication in economic activities, production in all economic activities is subject to the same or different degrees of negative effects of the exchange rate.Exchange rate is considered a key variable in the economy of any country, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the important challenges in macroeconomics. Exchange rate fluctuation as a sign of instability and uncertainty affects all important economic variables.

In this regard, the main goal of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on the gross domestic product in the selected country of Iran.

For this purpose, in this research, seasonal time series data of Iran's economy during the period (2006-2020) and in the framework of econometric models have been analyzed using the quantile regression method.

Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through the exchange rate, it is therefore necessary for the government in economic planning to the conditions of recession and economic prosperity of the country. andconsider more monitoring of the money market and reducing the level of fluctuations and currency shocks caused by speculation in order to increase the country's stability and stability.Exchange rate fluctuations are effective on the country's production and demand growth and some other variables; In the way that today the discussion is about the optimal amount of fluctuations. Therefore, the choice of foreign exchange policies according to theeconomic conditions, in such a way as to lead to the establishment of a suitable exchange rate system, can not only be a way to achieve growth and development, but in turn, it also affects other macro factors will be.The distinction of this article is with the studies done in the estimation method and scope of the time and place period and in the conditions of economic stagnation and prosperity. As mentioned in the rest of the article, many studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of exchange rates on production in Iran, regardless of asymmetry.The asymmetric effects of currency shocks, in addition to creating instability and economic impulses, can simultaneously and intermittently affect society in other dimensions of society, such as decreasing trust and increasing corruption and bribery. In these two and a half decades, the economy has faced many monetary expansions and inflation and currency shocks.Governments are interested in identifying appropriate solutions to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the most important macro goals is production at the level of full employment and stability and economic growth. Given that the exchange rate and shocks from it areone of the most important factors affecting production, therefore, the empirical knowledge of economic officials on the relationship between currency shocks and production is of great importance in policy making.The importance of this becomes more apparent when the government or economic officials want to make the right decision in business periods and in accordance with exchange rate fluctuations.The results showed that value has a symmetrical effect on production. Currency values and the ratio of capital creation to gross domestic product in several different cases (quartiles) and deciles have a positive and significant effect on production, and it is possible to increase investment and decrease the value of the national currency in Iran.The effect of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP, the degree of openness of the economy, the consumer price index on production in different quantiles (quartiles) and deciles is not asymmetric on production, so that in different quantiles of production (recession and economic prosperity), the reaction of production to these variables, Although They are different in appearance, but there is no statistically significant difference. Therefore, economic policy makers can use currency policies to influence production regardless of the issue of asymmetry in different business periods (recession and prosperity).

Experimental findings showed that the consumer price index and the degree of openness of the economy had a negative and significant effect on production in different quantities. Therefore, economic policy makers can control inflation in order to increase production.
Experimental evidence showed that although the effects of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP and the degree of openness of the economy and the consumer price index and exchange rate on production were significant and their coefficients were slightlydifferent in different quantiles. But the tests of asymmetry of the coefficients of the variables It showed that the effects of all variables on production are not significantly different, in other words, the effects of the variables on production were symmetrical.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on GDP during periods of recessions and prosperity via examining the role of credit channels (bank lending). Using the non-linear Markov switching pattern _which has the ability to track structural changes_ the research variables were examined during the 1987 to 2021 period. Based on the results obtained through the Markov switching model tests, the value of the width from the center in the first regime was 0.109743, which is representative of the boom period. On the other hand, the value of the width from the center of the second regime is -0.129524, which can be considered as the recession period. The sum of the coefficients of the logarithm of the volume of liquidity has a negative effect on the logarithm of the GDP during the boom period, and a positive effect during the recession period. Moreover, the results obtained from the Wald test also confirmed the asymmetry of the effect of monetary policy on GDP in different economic regimes. The analysis of instantaneous reaction functions in the model with credit channel also shows the greater intensity of monetary policy effects compared to the model without credit channel. Additionally, at beginning of periods the effects of the shocks on the liquidity volume variable are significant in both cases. Subsequently, these effects tend to zero in the following periods and the effects of the shocks disappear.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks, it's uncertainty and economic sanctions on economic growth and inflation in Iran. For this purpose, annual data 1979-2019 and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach has been used. Furthermore, two models have been estimated. The first model the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks, it's uncertainty and economic sanctions on economic growth, the second model those variables on inflation are examined. The results of estimating the first model indicate that, positive oil price logarithm shock (LOIL_POS) has a positive effect and negative shock (LOIL_NEG) has a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, the effect of uncertainty on oil price, economic sanctions, labor, government spending and exchange rates on economic growth is negative and significant, and capital stock has a positive and significant effect on it. The results of second model, show that a LOIL_POS has a negative effect and a LOIL_NEG has a positive effect on inflation. In addition, economic sanctions, trade liberalization and government spending have a positive and significant effect on inflation. The effect of oil price uncertainty and the logarithm of GDP on inflation is negative and significant. Wald test show that the effects of oil price shocks on economic growth and inflation is asymmetric both in the short (at the 10% level) and long run.

The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Due to the considerable impact of industrial development on the country's economic development, this research attempts to evaluate the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on the value added of the industrial sector for the period of 1380:1 - 1400:4, using the NARDL method. The results of the estimation show that the effect of the exchange rate on the value added of the industrial sector is asymmetric, such that an increase in the exchange rate affects the value added of the industrial sector differently from a decrease in the exchange rate. The effect of the exchange rate in the long term is such that the positive changes in the exchange rate strengthen the value added of the industrial sector, and the decrease in the exchange rate does not affect it. Therefore, the economic policymaker should abandon exchange rate suppression as an inflation control policy and allow the exchange rate to be determined based on market forces.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear business cycle dynamics due to the presence of financial frictions in Iran's economy. For this purpose, a NARDL model is estimated by using seasonal data during 1991q4- 2021q3. Also, this study used of the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans as a measure of financial friction. The results of the Bounds test indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between the model variables. The results of the model estimation show that the GDP has an asymmetric behavior in the short and long term. Based on this, in the short and long term, there is a significant relationship between GDP and the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans and financial market conditions have a significant non-linear effect on the dynamics of business cycles. According to the results, the effects of financial friction shock on business cycles are asymmetric, and therefore the predictive efficiency of all linear models is questioned. Finally, this study shows that economic prosperity can reduce the ratio of non-performing loans to total paid facilities over time, and this most likely reflects the effect of prosperity on employment and business conditions, and as a result, the ability of borrowers to repay loans.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the asymmetric evaluation of the high-frequency valuation of the company listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange using the MS-EGARCH model. For this purpose, the 5-minute data of Tehran Stock Exchange was used in the period of 2021-2022. Based on the results of the research, it was determined that the variable trend of stock exchange returns in non-linear mode (separation of period length into high and low regimes) is preferable to linear mode, and when the volatility of stock trading is small, the average return of the stock market changes, but the variance of the return changes. The stock market has no significant effect. Also, the results show the asymmetric effects of the effect of stock trading on the changes in stock exchange returns in the boom regime, and the fluctuations of stock trading in the average and high variance regime, in the state of increasing and decreasing stock trading, will have a different effect on the changes in stock exchange returns, and generally its positive effect It is smaller than its negative effects. As a result, it is suggested that the policy makers in the implementation of policies related to the capital market should be proportional to the regime in which the capital market is located, different policies and even if the policies are the same, the intensity of their implementation should be proportional to the characteristics of that regime in each regime.

In general, one of the channels that help accelerate the economic growth of countries is the growth of their industry sector. The importance and basic role of the industry sector and its contribution as the most important factor in stimulating economic growth in developed and developing countries is to such an extent that many experts believe that industrial development leads to the growth and development of other sectors. It leads to economy. The present research has been conducted on the asymmetric analysis of monetary shocks on the economic growth rate of the industrial sector in Iran with the SUR model. In this research, using seasonal time series data during the period 1365 to 1398 and using the nonlinear approach of Markov regime change, apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) and linear regression method, the effect of the mentioned shocks on growth Industrial production is reviewed. The results of the SUR technique showed that the reaction of the industries and mines sector and its sub-sectors to predicted and unanticipated monetary shocks is meaningless in normal economic conditions. Therefore, regardless of the fluctuations governing the economy, the transmission channels of monetary policy are weak in the entire sector of industries and mines and its sub-sectors.

This study goes beyond the the prevailing use of averaged data to investigate the hidden evidence of asymmetry due to the effect of monthly exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's quarterly GDP during the period 1380:1-1397-4. For this purpose, the regression model of Mixed Data with different asymmetric frequency (MIDAS model) is use, which allows time series variables with different frequencies (eg daily, weekly and monthly) to be put together in a regression.The results showed that the Mixed Data with different frequency Approach compared to the same frequency model of these changes is statistically stronger and provides a better fit, and also the Exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects on Iran's GDP, And depending on the number of optimal lags and the sources of changes, production gives different responses to different positive and negative shocks, So that Iran's gdp In response to the negative fluctuations of the exchange rate showing a stronger immediate reaction and more lasting effects. ue to the existence of asymmetric effects of currency shocks on production, it is suggested that policy makers should not consider the absolute value of the effects of positive and negative currency policies to be the same in regulating currency policies in order to advance macroeconomic goals.

The present study intends to use the Mixed Data Sampling model (MIDAS) to investigate the effect of exchange rate changes on the variable of real production in Iran during the period 1397:1  to1380:4  that Provides implement a flexibility model whit  high descriptive power, including variables of varying frequency (eg daily, weekly and monthly) together in a regression.The results of this study show that the MIDAS model is statistically strong in identifying the asymmetric dynamic effects of the independent variable with higher freuency (exchange rate changes) on the dependent variable with lower frequency (GDP) compared to the same frequency model of these variables and shows asymmetry better.Also, based on the obtained results, the intensity of the impact of the momentum and the persistence of each momentum are different, so that the negative momentum of the exchange rate has more intense and lasting effects on Iran's GDP.

In recent decades, the high rate of inflation has been one of the concerns of Iran's economy, and one of the main causes of inflation has been the imbalance of banks. The level of non-current claims of banks has been increasing due to the economic recession, credit facilities and the lack of optimal allocation of facilities, and therefore it has unbalanced the balance sheets of banks, hence the examination of economic factors affecting the bank default rate is of special importance. has In this research, the economic factors affecting bank defaults have been identified and their asymmetric effects on the bank default rate have been analyzed using a non-linear approach using the Markov switching method during the quarterly period of 2019 to 2019. The results of this research indicate the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the bank default rate during high and low default periods. The economic growth rate has a negative effect on the default rate in the medium and high default regimes, but it has a positive effect on the default rate in the low default period, the increase in the inflation rate in the low and high default periods leads to a decrease in non-current claims, but the inflation rate in the medium default period It does not have a significant effect on the default rate, the exchange rate has a significant effect on the default rate only in the medium and high default periods, and it does not have a significant effect in the low default period, the unemployment rate has a positive effect on the default rate in the low default period, but it has an effect in the high default period. has a negative effect, the facility growth rate has a negative effect on the default rate in the low default period, but has a positive effect in the medium and high default period, the world oil price has a negative and significant effect on the default rate only in the low default period, but in the medium and high default period, The global price of oil has no significant effect on the default rate, the interest rate of bank facilities has had a negative and significant effect on the default rate only during the period of high default.

The relationship between financial development and income inequality is one of the topics that has been the focus of researchers and economic policymakers since the 1990s; hence extensive empirical studies attempt to determine the type of effect of financial development on income inequality in the world. In Iran, in recent decades, studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality within the framework of the inverted U hypothesis and linear relationships between these indicators. In the present study, the asymmetric and non-linear effects of financial development on income inequality for the period 2013-2016 have been investigated. The current research method is organized in the category of applied research, and for this purpose, the NARDL model has been used; the use of this approach is the distinguishing feature of the present study compared to other studies conducted in Iran. The results show that financial development has a negative relationship with income inequality in Iran, and this relationship is consistent with the inequality reduction hypothesis. Also, the existence of long-term asymmetric effects has been confirmed in the model, so increasing and decreasing the financial development of income inequality in the long term bears different statistical effects.

The undesirable impacts of climate change affect not only the environment, but all sectors of the society and the economy around the world. Technological advances are one of the factors that can reduce pollutants emissions relative to the amount of economic production. The index of economic complexity is one of the indicators that show the level of knowledge and skills required in the production of goods and is a measure of economic development. In this study, the nonlinear relationship between economic complexity index and carbon dioxide emissions has been investigated using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model during 1971-2018. The results of the model indicate that by an increase in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions decrease about 2 percent, and by a decrease in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions increase about 12 and 1 percent in the long and short term, respectively. It is noteworthy that due to the low level of economic complexity in Iran, this index has a smaller coefficient than other variables. Also, the results show that the effect of positive and negative shocks of GDP on carbon dioxide emissions in the long term in Iran is symmetric, while the effect of positive and negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is asymmetric. It should be noted, the effect of the negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the positive shocks.

Iran's economy In the last decade have faced persistent and high inflation, political risks, uncertainty, lack of transparency and economic sanctions that makes imbalances in financial markets and hampered economic growth. On the other hand economic studies show that sound and efficient financial systems, which direct capital to use it most efficiently, are beneficial to economic growth. Therefore, the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth has created considerable debate among development economists. However, there is little consensus on the impact of financial development on economic growth as well as its linear or non-linear impact. Therefore, this study, considering the indicators of the market based financial development, to investigate the nonlinear and asymmetric effect of financial market development on economic growth with the Markov-Swichning approach. The study period is 1980-2018. In order to investigate the asymmetric effects of market-based financial development, new indicators presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced by the study by Svirydzenka (2016) were used. The results of the study showed that market-oriented of financial development have a significant effect on economic growth only in the first regime or in other words, the recession regime. Therefore, in the context of recession and volatile economic growth, the focus of government policies on the market sector and financial development has played a very effective role and can reduce and improve the inflammation in the process of economic growth. Also, the values of the obtained coefficients showed that increasing the access of financial markets has a much greater effect than increasing the depth of the financial market in improving the process of economic growth.

Income distribution is one of the economic variables in the field of macroeconomics whose improvement is always a concern of governments. Income distribution shows the share of each member of the society in national income. The most important results of an increase in income inequality are increased rents and corruption, reduced entrepreneurial rate in the society and increased size of government. Also, the existence of a large traditional sector with low potential for modernization and a low and volatile level of economic growth rate is another characteristics of economies with high inequality in income distribution. All economies are somehow faced with macroeconomic shocks, but the dependence of oil-exporting countries on foreign exchange earnings from oil sales has made changes in oil revenues, which is a major cause of economic fluctuations in these countries. In Iran, exports and government budgets depend heavily on oil revenues, so that any move to the global oil market severely affects the government budgets and the structure of the economy. Thus, the prominent role of oil revenues in the structure of the government budgets and the social security programs has distinguished the Iranian economy from other economies. Studies show that countries with a high share of natural resource exports experience two to three times more fluctuations in their foreign trade than other countries. Oil wealth harms the poor by creating economic fluctuations in the countries that export this product through two channels that include creating economic shocks and destabilizing government revenues, and increasing income inequality. Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of shocks and uncertainty of oil revenues and sanctions on the income distribution in the Iranian economy.
In this study, in order to investigate the impacts of oil market shocks (good and bad news) and sanctions as well as the effects of uncertainty in the income distribution inequality, the index of VARMAX GARCH-in-Mean Asymmetric BEKK model has been used for the period of 1991: 1 to 2019: 1.
The results showed that positive shocks to the oil revenues led to improved revenue distribution in the short term. One of the strengths of the present study is to consider the effects of the structural failure of the variance of variables in the studied model, which has led to an increase in the accuracy of estimating the model coefficients. The significance of the structural failure coefficients (across the origin) in the equations of variance indicates that, in terms of structural failure (variance) in the model, the amount of turbulence in all the variables increased, so in the period when production variance had structural failure compared to the period when there was no structural failure, there was less relative stability in the economic growth. In addition, the results of estimating the research model confirm the existence of asymmetric effects of shocks (good and bad news) on the turbulence of all the variables, so that the intensity of these asymmetric effects in the turbulence of oil revenues, economic growth and inflation was relatively higher. These variables are highly sensitive to the arrival of bad news, and this type of news is an important factor for the instability of the variables studied in this period. According to the estimation of the GARCH sector coefficients, the turbulence of all the variables is transmitted to the turbulence of the income distribution inequality index, and the instability in each of these sectors leads to its transfer to the income distribution index. Also, the significance of the estimated coefficients in the GARCH sector confirmed the transfer of the sanctions turbulent overflow to all the sectors, including income distribution, which confirms the effective role of sanctions in creating instability in Iran's macroeconomy. Therefore, if the sanctions continue, the establishment of relative stability will face a serious challenge.
Despite the view of many economic thinkers that one of the main causes of poverty and income inequality is lack of capital, and money accumulation, the experience of many oil-exporting countries, including Iran, with regard to oil revenues shows the opposite. Many studies have shown that, despite the abundance of oil resources and high government revenues from oil revenues in countries with oil reserves, including Iran, income inequality is exacerbated. This is due to their lack of attention to tax revenues, over-dependence on oil revenues, lack of strong links between oil-related industries and other economic sectors, the lack of proper influence of this sector on employment, and the orientation of public spending towards the wealthy classes,. In contrast, studies in developed countries indicate that reducing inequality and improving income distribution by increasing transfer costs and targeted subsidies from sources of increased energy revenue have led to improved health and education indicators.

Awareness of the structure and potential of different sectors in the Iranian economy is one of the important and effective factors for success in development planning. Service section is one of the most important section in a country’s economy that it operates as a development (growth) motor of other sections and its share is constantly increasing in the gross domestic product and development. Hence the effective factors on its added value has always been of interest to economists and politicians. On the other hand, investigating the direction and extent of the impact of liquidity changes on macroeconomic variables is always important to formulate and adopt appropriate macroeconomic policies. In this study, considering the share of service section in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the Iran’s economy as well as liquidity volume mutations in the recent decade, we examine and analyze the direction and extent of the impact of value added of the service section from changes in the volume of liquidity by using time-series data on an annual basis during the period 1360 to 1395 dynamically. In this regard, the self-return model with Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and the threshold test approach has been used. The research outcomes confirm the existence of a long-term Cointegration between the variables of the model. Furthermore, the results show that liquidity volume changes’ shocks have a greater impact on the value added of the service sector in the long term. According to other research results, the effect of bank credit interest rate on value added of services sector is positive and significant and the attraction of value added of service sector is more than short-term and long-term interest rate of bank credits compared to changes in liquidity volume

According to the specific characteristics of the economic sectors and sub-sectors of each sector, it is likely that these sectors and their sub-sectors show different response to a monetary shock. The present study has been conducted on how the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks affect the growth rate of the industrial sector in terms of symmetry or asymmetry of effects in business and credit cycles. In this study, the effect of the mentioned shocks on the growth rate of the industry is investigated in three models separately (Model in conventional conditions and without economic fluctuations, model with business cycles and model with credit cycles), Using seasonal time series data from 1988 to 2019 and the nonlinear approach of Markov Switching, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the linear regression method. Based on the results of the SUR technique, in normal economic conditions, the industry and mining sector and its sub-sectors do not react significantly to the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks.  Using the regime switching probabilities and business and credit cycles derived from Markov methods MSMAH (2,5,0) and MSM (2) -AR (4), the linear regression results show the asymmetric effect of anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks in both business and credit cycles. In a way that, in the state of the business  cycles, unanticipated shocks are more effective in expansionary than in recession and in the state of the credit cycles, these shocks have a stronger effect on stimulating production in the conditions of credit slowdowns.

Oil as the main source of energy and engine of economic growth, is an essential input in the production process, that its consumption has increased significantly along with the modernization of the economy. The subject of the present study is the asymmetric analysis of oil price in Iran. In this regard, the effect of oil price on economic growth in two models, considering oil revenue and without it, has been estimated using the nonlinear autoregression distributed lag method (NARDL). The results of the study for the period 2018-2000 indicate that the effect of oil price on economic growth, containing oil revenue was asymmetric but without oil revenue was symmetric.

Poverty is one of the most important social problems that have been always affected the lives of many people, so eliminating this problem is always among the goals of social development. Despite the many efforts that have been made throughout history to eliminate this phenomenon, it has existed for many years and among different countries and continues despite economic growth among underdeveloped or developing countries. In the economics literatures, several factors are effective in creating and spreading poverty, one of which can be considered the exchange rate, which is considered as a key and important economic variable in policy-making. In recent years, the real exchange rate has fluctuated in recent years, and it is important to know its effects on economic policy- making. So, one cannot overlook the significant impact of the exchange rate on poverty. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to try to find out what the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate will be on poverty. 

The research variables include poverty index, the real exchange rate and government support. To study the subject, have been used the latest data of the Iran during the period of 1985 to 2018. In this research, a dynamic panel threshold model is investigated to distinguish the asymmetric effects of real exchange rates on poverty. This approach combines time series models with threshold modeling approaches. In this paper, using NARDL, an attempt is made to investigate the positive and negative asymmetric effects of exchange rates on poverty in the Iranian economy using a nonlinear model. 

The results show that long term exchange rate impacts on poverty in Iran. In the short run, with a period of delay, exchange rate fluctuations increase poverty in Iran, and real exchange rate declines have no effect on poverty reduction. Also government assistance to the poor and low- income groups in the long and short run has not reduced poverty in the country. 

The results show that in both the short and long term, only an increase in the exchange rate will have a devastating effect on poverty and its impact is greater in the long term than in the short term. And in the short and long term, the depreciation of the real exchange rate has no effect on the reduction of poverty, so governments must implement policies that do not cause sharp fluctuations in the real exchange rate, especially in the event of an increase. The possibility of monetary and fiscal policies should be determined in such a way as to minimize exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, although the exchange rate is not a choice for policymakers, if faced with these conditions, the negative effects of an increase in the exchange rate can be mitigated by government support for the poor through transfer payments and indirect payments to vulnerable groups.