econometric model

In this study, the direct and indirect effects of transportation sector investment on the creation of value-added and jobs in the economy were studied. For this purpose, after estimating the relationships using ARDL method for the period of 1959-2014, the short-run, long-run, and error correction models estimated. In long-run estimation, the production elasticity of transportation sector relative to the capital is more than twice as large as non-transport sectors. According to these results, and the finding that 1 percent increase in the total value-added leads to 0.3 percent growth in the job creation in the economy, the effect of transport sector investment on the creation of total value-added and jobs reviewed. The results of the shock scenario simulation in the transport sector investment showed that one percentage increase in this variable generated an average of 0.235% growth in the economic value-added and a 0.07% increase in the number of created jobs during the simulated period. According to the nearly 10% share of transportation on the total value-added, this shows a significant effect. Therefore, given the significant effects of transportation in the economy, this sector has the relative ability to develop direct and indirect employment from the channel of production boost.

In this study، to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran، a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model، government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010، so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option)، it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option)، it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option)، private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally، if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option)، oil revenues will increase، as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.

In this paper, a relatively small scale Structural Macro-econometric Model is constructed to study the effect of changes in the US dollar value and the price of oil on trade balance and economic growth of Iran. The model contains 24 long run and short run behavioral equations, 11 connecting equations and 27 definitional equations and identities. Within The methodology of co-integration, all the parameters of the equations in the model are estimated using ARDL technique and time series data for the period 1936 to 2012. The appropriateness of the constructed model is assessed by the related statistical tests and dynamic simulations. The simulation results indicate that when the oil price increase in the world market is due to a US dollar depreciation against other currencies, on one hand, Iran’s dollar revenue increases but on the other hand, imports also increases. Fallowing a jump in the world’s oil prices, yet the general domestic price level tends to increase due to the imported inflation. In all, simulation results show that the increase in dollar revenue due to the depreciation of dollar and hence the increase in oil prices, do not reduce the growth rate of the Iranian economy. Thus, even if it is perceived that an increase in income of the oil exporting countries due to an increase in oil prices will reduce their economic growth rate, the results of this study show that when this income increase is achieved through the depreciation of dollar, the economic growth of the Iranian economy will not decrease.

In this study، we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on major macroeconomic variables of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose، we used a short scale structural macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that the negative effects of a graduate increase in exchange rate is less than the same effects in a sudden increase in exchange rate. In the first scenario (sudden increase in exchange rate)، inflation rate، economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %21. 6، %4. 7 and %8. 6 respectively in the first year after shock. In the second Scenario (graduate increase in exchange rate)، inflation rate، economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %17. 2، %4. 99 and %7. 4 respectively in the first year after shock.

This paper evaluates the interacted effects of the fiscal and monetary policies on the nominal and real macro-variables of the Iranian economy. Our analysis is thus based on the optimal control theory by which the optimal path of the control variables including monetary and fiscal tools are determined over the period 1963-2006. We also use a macro-econometric model in form of a simultaneous equation system to investigate interaction between both real and money (nominal) sectors. Due to the importance of the foreign sector in the country economic development، several scenarios have been conducted particularly on imports. The empirical results indicate that a focus simultaneously on both monetary and fiscal policies should cause an optimal control of the objective variables to reach approximately their appropriate values. This would be happened as a result of a productive relationship between the government and the central bank.

The purpose of this study is to explain the effect of interbank financial relation development as a convergence and integration approach in banking system of Iran by which we will be able to evaluate targeting credit allocation and profitability of banks. In other words, we evaluate this view that by more complication of economic relation which is the result of interdependency of various markets, in addition to strengthening the competitiveness and financial interbank relationship; strengthen banking efficiency in optimizing credit allocation and profit increase. Accordingly, an econometric model will be established in which, by using cross-section data of the Iranian in 2008-2011, the effectiveness of interbank financial relation and other factors development on credit allocation and banking profitability will be studied. The results of this study show the most important factors affecting banking profitability and credit allocation improvement in new banking system of the country.

This paper presents the main deficirncies of monetary policy in Iran. Financial repression is used by monetary authorities. Therefore official interest rate could not be the main channel to affect the real sector. Also the monetary condition Index and the other well know monetary rules are not used to evaluate monetary conditions. Moreover monetary policy instruments are traditional ones and recent development of monetary instruments are disregarded. Fiscal policy leads monetary policy because of oil revenuees. In case of decrease in oil revenues, budget deficit is monetized. By the help of a found the monetary policy in Iran does not take into account the economic condition in particular, inflation and GDP gaps.