scenario planning

Peace education changes behavior and enables adults to avoid conflicts and violence and resolve them peacefully by focusing on indices such as knowledge, skills, and attitudes. University is an important organization that plays a significant role in education and creating sustainable values in society..

The research method was qualitative and according to the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. The measurement tools included authentic domestic and foreign articles, field studies and documents, and were based on the development of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. This Delphi Panel methodology consisted of 20 education and communication experts in educational sciences and humanities, and they were selected by the researchers using a judgmental method. The matrix of cross-impact analysis coefficients was used with the help of MICMAC software for structural analysis.

The research findings, including 94 primary codes or indices and 11 components indicated that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors had the highest effects on cultural intelligence, and thus four scenarios were developed, namely human dignity based on peace education, symbolic and unstable peace education, hegemony or the collapse of the education system, and peace education as the basis of global citizenship education.

Futures research can forecast the future of peace education with the greatest accuracy and the least uncertainty. The future forecast of peaceful education can reduce conflicts at schools, universities, and other educational institutions and lead society towards sustainable growth and development.

This study aims to develop scenario planning as a method for policy laboratories. The institutional structure of science and technology policy in Iran was selected as the case study, with in-depth, semi-structured interviews conducted with 20 experts and informants in Iranian science and technology policy. Schwartz’s eight-step scenario planning method was applied. Based on this, two key uncertainties—1) Structure (open/closed) and 2) Rules of Conduct (collaborative participation vs. contentious dispute)—were identified, leading to four scenarios: 1) Collaborative Policy Network, 2) Government System, 3) Obligation-Relief Approach, and 4) Island Structure. The outcomes of each scenario were evaluated, and the most desirable scenario, the Collaborative Policy Network, was selected. This study demonstrates that scenario planning, a widely used method in foresight studies, can also function as a policy laboratory by assessing the potential consequences of a policy. It is recommended that science and technology policymakers evaluate policy outcomes in a policy laboratory through methods like scenario planning before implementing them broadly and subjecting them to public trial and error.

Lack of identity involves employees of the organization with disorders such as; Low self-confidence, depression, anxiety, limited career advancement, low work concentration, etc. Therefore, the manuscript seeks identifying the key factors which play a role in the employees’ identitylessness and mapping possible scenarios for managing this crisis in military organizations. This is an applied research which has been carried by descriptive-causal method. The statistical population includes expert managers of HRM in one of the military organizations with at least a master's degree, which 25 people were selected by purposeful. Data were collected by two library-field methods. For this purpose, after carrying out library studies and determining the key factors affecting the identity crisis of employees, a questionnaire was prepared to evaluate the effectiveness and effectiveness of key factors to map possible scenarios in the crisis management of employee identitylessness. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using the content method as well as reliability by retest method at another time and correlation between the tests (0/73). The systematic review illustrated the effective factors in the crisis of identitylessness are classified into two general categories, individual and environmental. In addition, to simulate the collected data, four scenarios were selected and simulated. The results indicated the increase in the individual's success, positive changes in the economic situation, the decrease in the use of social media, and the emergence of good personality traits lead to an increase in the percentage of people's identity acquisition and, as a result, a decrease in the incidence of identity crisis and the management of identity crisis will be. At the end, solutions for managing the crisis of identity among the employees were presented.

Today, one of the factors that is considered in determining the level of development of a country's economy is the level of information and communication technology in that country. Information and communication technology plays a significant role in reducing industrial problems and increasing productivity and employment. As a developing country, the ICT industry in Iran is a nascent industry that faces many challenges. Currently, one of the main challenges of this industry is human resources. The ICT industry needs specialized human resources for growth and development, and the labor market of this industry is facing challenges such as the lack of specialized human resources, the migration of specialized personnel, and at the same time, the existence of a surplus of educated personnel. In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies.

Design/ methodology/ approach:

 The research method is descriptive-analytical-exploratory, and the type is applied research. The method used is a combined method that includes two qualitative and quantitative parts. Mixed approaches are a type of research method in which two competing quantitative and qualitative approaches are placed next to each other. In other words, mixed research methods is a type of research method in which a researcher (or a team of researchers) combines the elements of quantitative and qualitative approaches with the aim of revealing the obstacles in research and a deep understanding of phenomena. In the current research, interviews and scenarios were used to identify the problem and provide practical solutions to improve the problem. Scenarios, as one of the future research methods, are used as a powerful tool to make decisions against uncertainties by different Actors. The purpose of scenario planning is to identify important future directions more quickly. Scenario planning also leads to identifying future issues and preparing managers' minds to face them. Scenario planning seeks to develop consistent stories about the future.

In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies. Seventeen interviews were conducted with ICT industry experts. Uncertainties were identified through interviews and were prioritized by using the AHP method. At the end, scenarios were described, and policies were suggested to improve each situation. The important finding of this research is the insight obtained from the scenarios. According to the uncertainties, 6 possible scenarios were identified. These scenarios show possible future spaces. In fact, in this article, we have tried to draw a time path towards the future by drawing future scenarios so that a better understanding of the system is created, and by identifying future alternative environments, it is possible to make optimal decisions in this space.

Limitations & Consequences: 

The time limitation and issues related to the collection of information and data, required for the research are among the most important limitations of the current research.

Practical Consequences: 

The problem of mismatch in the labor market is influenced by various factors such as social orientations, political and economic orientations, industry conditions and job characteristics, and the existence of different actors with different mental models, all of which make it a complicated problem. In this research, an attempt was made to create a deep insight and understanding of the dynamics of supply and demand of human resources in the information technology industry and provide policies to get out of the eddies hidden in it.

Innovation or value of the Article:

 In terms of subject dealing with the problem of the mismatch of the human labor market in the ICT industry and from the methodological point of view, the using scenario planning as a new method to study complex and dynamic phenomena are the innovations of the present article.

Today, achieving professional development of school principals is one of the most important goals of education in all developed countries and most developing countries.

The aim of this study was to provide Optimal scenarios for the professional development of primary school principals in 2025 Horizon northwestern provinces of the Iran.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on new methods of Future studies, analysis and exploration, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative models in the form of documentary and survey methods and in two stages of identifying key drivers using software Mic Mac is based on the method of Cross Impact Analysis and presenting the Optimal scenarios using the scenario Wizard software. The statistical population included professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational Administration in the northwestern provinces of the Iran. The sample size was 12 people which was continued by purposeful sampling and snowball sampling until data saturation.

the results of the application of cross - impact analysis method showed that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of principals. By preparing the basket of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations are defined for 15 factors.

With the formation of matrix 45*45 and with the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 11 strong scenarios, 29 plausible scenarios and 39 weak scenarios were extracted.

The present study aims to apply a scenario-writing approach to forecast the future of professional ethics within Iran’s business ecosystem by the horizon of 2031. This research is applied in nature and combines documentary and survey methods, drawing upon new analytical and exploratory methods in futures studies. The target population includes managers of business enterprises and academic experts specializing in professional ethics and business. Initially, through library studies and an expert panel, the study identifies trends impacting professional ethics within Iran's business ecosystem by 2031. Subsequently, these trends undergo refinement through a two-stage Delphi method, followed by the identification of ten key factors using structural analysis. Finally, scenarios were generated to outline possible futures for professional ethics in Iran’s business landscape. For data analysis, SPSS, MICMAC, and Scenario Wizard software were utilized. The analysis yielded 2,857 combined scenarios, of which 15 were categorized as strong or likely, 19 as plausible, and 23 as weak. Among the probable scenarios, the findings indicated that most influential indicators on the future of professional ethics in Iran’s business ecosystem by 2031 are in a critical state. This study outlines four primary scenarios for the future of professional ethics in Iranian business: "Justice in Flux," "Local Management, Global Market," "Survival in the Dark Ages," and "National Engagement, Global Resistance." The results highlight that key factors, such as legal transparency, government oversight, international relations, and strengthening of local values, play a vital role in either enhancing or weakening professional ethics and organizational commitment. Aligning with similar studies, these findings emphasize the importance of transparent policies, international interactions, and cultural identity reinforcement, and recommend a balanced approach for managers and policymakers to improve ethical standards and business sustainability.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is driving profound changes in human life, significantly impacting areas such as employment, the economy, communication, warfare, privacy, security, ethics, and healthcare. Despite its current influence, the future evolution and impact of AI remain uncertain. Depicting future scenarios of emerging technologies is a common method for understanding and shaping desired outcomes, as well as preparing for potential future situations. These scenarios can be proposed by various sources, including media and science fiction. Science fiction films, in particular, have a long history of portraying the future of emerging technologies, especially AI. This paper aims to explore future scenarios of AI development.

To conduct this research, first, we reviewed the literature and reports related to the future of AI, which led to the identification of drivers shaping the future. Then, By gathering experts' opinions and conducting a content analysis of science-fiction films with an IMDb score higher than six, relevant to the future of AI, we identified three uncertainties underlying the future of AI. Following our content analysis protocol, we analyzed films and identified evidence of drivers in each film. Eventually, from the intersection of our uncertainties, nine scenarios were obtained, of which four scenarios were logically acceptable.

We found that uncertainties shaping the future of AI are social acceptance, singularity, and legality and regulation, with expert average scores of 4.40, 4.33, and 4.78, respectively. We selected them from the six drivers identified in the literature review, i.e., social acceptance, scope of AI development, singularity, cost-benefit of AI, legality and regulation, and government support. The scenario of AI dominating the world is a dystopian narrative of the future of human beings, where AI takes over power and pushes humans to the outskirts of the cities. In contrast to this scenario, in the utopia scenario, the synergy of humans and AI creates a utopia where humans and AI co-exist and thrive peacefully. The remaining scenarios’ features are located between dystopia and utopia.

Our findings indicate that ‘Utopia: Human and AI Synergy’ is the most optimistic scenario, while ‘AI Domination of the World’ represents the most pessimistic outlook for AI development. The results show that the advantages of AI development are significant for both governments and individuals, necessitating proportionate policies to realize these benefits. However, the potential risks and challenges of AI in the future highlight the need for regulations and restrictions to prevent uncontrolled development and applications of AI.

The current research aims at the possible scenarios of the sustainable supply chain in the dairy industry with a future research approach. The method of qualitative and applied research and in terms of data collection is a descriptive-survey research. The statistical population of the research includes 11 expert professors (academic experts), experts and specialists working in the country's dairy industries (industry experts), and independent customers and researchers (public stakeholders). The non-probability sampling method is purposeful (judgmental) and snowball. Effective factors and key uncertainties in the dairy industry were identified by the fuzzy Delphi method, then three compatible scenarios were identified with the help of Wizard Scenario software. According to the findings of the research, the factors influencing the driving forces and key uncertainties on the future of the sustainable supply chain in the dairy industry were identified, which include: foreign trade and communication regulations, the state of competition laws, attention to health and safety issues and standards, attention to Inventory maintenance for each product unit, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, inflation rate fluctuations, the cost of raw material production, the cost of spoilage of dairy products, and the motivation and willingness of private investors to invest in the dairy industry. The results of the research showed that after the possible states for each of the key uncertainties were identified with the help of the Wizard Scenario software, three compatible scenarios were obtained with the titles "prosperous", "realistic" and "incurable". . On the other hand, it was determined that the foreign exchange rate and inflation have the greatest impact on other factors and the future of the dairy industry.

According to the growing trend of the LNG markets in recent years, Iran can play an important role in the global LNG markets due to its significant reserves of Natural Gas, geopolitics and access to international waters. In this study, first global LNG markets and its future are studied. Then, the effective factors and driving forces on the future of LNG in Iran are determined by various studies. By using the Cross Impact Method (CIM) with the help of MICMAC software, the driving forces are analyzed, and the important driving forces in the future of LNG in Iran are determined. Finally, using ScenarioWizard, scenarios for the future of LNG in Iran are developed.
As a result, this study concludes the future of LNG in Iran, using the "Back to the boom", "An opening to hope", "Ambiguous fate" and "Decline neighborhood" scenarios. Finally, considering the above scenarios, the importance of LNG industry, and Iran's conditions in this area, recommendations will be provided in this regard.

Fintech and its entrepreneurial opportunities have the ability to play an effective role in the development of the financial industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a correct and effective policy in this area to identify its probable future. This study is exploratory in terms of purpose and practical in terms of orientation. Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data. 28 drivers were extracted by reviewing the background and interviewing experts. In order to screen the propellants, expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method were used. Then the propellants screened were ranked through the priority assessment questionnaire and the developed COPRAS technique. The two drivers of the development of smart contracts in the financial industry and the tendency of financial institutions towards open innovation had the highest priority and were used to write research scenarios. Based on these two drivers, 4 scenarios of the era of pristine opportunities, the era of conservative managers, the era of dilapidated infrastructure and the ice age were developed. Then, using the MABAC technique, the scenario of the age of dilapidated infrastructures was selected as the possible scenario of the research. Research proposals were proposed based on priority drivers and possible scenarios. Government support, providing sufficient funds in order to create the necessary infrastructure for the development of smart contracts by banks or establishing a cooperative relationship between banks and financial institutions, fair legislation, development of regtechs, creating compatibility between current systems with new technologies were the most important practical proposals of the study.

Following the expansion of business boundaries and the increase of uncertainties, business management under disruption such as the outbreak of epidemics has been considered. In this study, the effective factors on business improvement under epidemic conditions have been investigated using the combined method of scenario planning and interaction effects analysis. The provision of beauty services in the field of healthcare has also been selected as a case study. This study is practical in terms of purpose, and the number of 15 experts who were selected purposefully is included in the sample of the current research. In the first stage, by conducting semi-structured interviews, the components of the research were analyzed and coded using MaxQDA software, and then they were classified from the four perspectives of innovation, flexibility, the resilience of the supply chain, and the integration of demand chain management. In the next step, by compiling the mutual effects analysis questionnaire and performing the analysis with Scenario Wizard software, the research scenarios were compiled and identified in the form of five strong scenarios and 783 weak scenarios. After examining the scenarios, the extracted scenarios are grouped based on the affinity and similarity of the identified scenarios. The key findings show that favorable conditions are more effective in the scenarios that by strengthening the favorable conditions in the healthcare systems, in case of epidemics, we can expect the business improvement process.

During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, technological advancements have posed new challenges for businesses. Traditional methods of operation often rely on historical evidence and past indicators, making them susceptible to discontinuous changes. Consequently, managing and understanding uncertainties has led to the growing importance of future-oriented approaches in designing business models. However, no comprehensive study has been conducted on suitable foresight methods for designing business models in startups. Given the unique characteristics of startups, such as age, growth, and resource constraints, the methods that commonly employed by medium and large enterprises may not be applicable to them. Therefore, there is a need for independent research in this area. The main question of this research is: "What are the most important foresight methods that are considered in the analysis or design of the business model in startups?". Based on this question, a quantitative approach using the scientometric method and a qualitative approach using the questionnaire method were used. Based on scientometric studies, it was revealed that the trend of using forecasting methods in designing and developing business models is growing. Summarizing the obtained results shows that the "scenario" method is the most important appropriate foresight method in the design of a futuristic business model.

The Imam Khomeini's Relief Foundation is a non-governmental organization, a quasi-governmental organization that was founded with the slogan of supporting the deprived and oppressed and empowering them. Considering the importance of solving the many economic, cultural and social problems of the deprived classes of the society and predicting the programs needed to empower and meet the needs of the deprived classes in the province, the mentioned organization is facing scenarios in the considered horizon that this research with a strategic foresight approach seeks to draw scenarios are highly believable. The type of research is applied which uses descriptive-analytical and case-contextual methods and with survey research methods, scientific documents and interviews and secondary data analysis method using various techniques such as "Delphi", "Expert Panel" and "Scenario". The statistical population of the research includes academic experts in the field of futures studies and foresight and experimental experts familiar with the studied organization. To select the statistical sample, the method of "criterion-based sampling" was used with the help of the Snowball sampling. By identifying the key factors and driving forces involved in the issue, the most key uncertainties were identified and four plausible scenarios were drawn, and at the end of the research, Proactive strategic options and hyper-active strategic options was presented.

Urban areas have long been considered as recipients of various forms of shock and crisis. Urban vulnerability to risks and crises is a function of human behavior and indicates the degree of readiness or lack of readiness of socio-economic and physical systems in urban areas. The purpose of this research is to provide a model based on scenario planning for the development of large scale commercial centers. Mal) regarding the role of urban crisis management in Semnan. This research is a combination of documentary and survey methods. In terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analysis and discovery, which is done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. And it is practical in terms of purpose. After selecting the sample, using independent variables (economic developments, social developments and physical developments) and developing hypermals as dependent variables, with the help of operations research method and using Lingo software version and Scenario Wizard was used to test hypotheses. Due to only a few factors, the location of retail centers are in a weak situation in terms of urban crisis management, and most of the social dimensions and economic benefits have been taken into account in their creation. Using a scenario planning approach automatically changes the crisis management situation It changes the city from reactive to proactive. Further, the results showed that scenario planning provides us with the best case, the most probable case, and the worst case where we can influence the future in order to have a positive result (aggressive strategy). Thus, for the development of hypermalls based on the second structure of the Stockholm model, the location of commercial centers, which are hypermalls here, is determined based on the physical, economic and social developments related to the crisis management of Semnan city, in different areas of the city. This scenario received the highest impact score among all research scenarios with an impact score of 6. The generality of the model level and avoiding irrelevant details are among the positive points that make this model applicable in the study area.

Since, the digital business industry has been able to experience great growth in recent years due to the growth of Internet access and the acceleration of digital transformation in business, and also due to the newness of a large percentage of companies in this industry, the competition among them are very high and the cost of changing the brand for customers is low, as a result, focusing on branding and examining the customer brand co-creation approach in this industry is of particular importance. This approach is an organic perspective of the brand that is replacing the traditional perspective that considers brand management only under the management and control of the company. The customer brand co-creation behavior emphasizes that the brand is formed and developed in collaboration with stakeholders and it is a set of voluntary, active actions based on customer interaction, which is based on the relationship between the brand and the customer and in line with the value creation for the brand and its growth. This approach can be very effective for digital and online businesses where the cost of switching brands for customers is low. Consequently, it is necessary to investigate the critical success factors (CSFs) of customer brand co-creation behavior. The aim of this paper is to identify the CSFs of customer brand co-creation behavior, model them and determine the most important CSFs through scenario analysis.

This paper is a mixed research including two phases. In the qualitative phase, the CSFs were identified through semi-structured interviews which conducted with 30 experts of academic and industrial in the fields of marketing and branding that data collected are analyzed using thematic analysis approach. The selection of experts has been done in a judicious and purposeful manner, and the snowball method was also used to find suitable experts for interview. In the quantitative phase, CSFs are modeled by fuzzy cognitive mapping approach. The request data is also collected using a researcher-made questionnaire which distributed among experts. This modeling leads to a relative understanding of the relationships between CSFs and helps in determining the sequence of factors and also improves performance. Finally, scenario planning is used in the form of forward and backward scenarios for better analysis of the model3.

Theme analysis shows that in total, there are 71 conceptual codes in the form of 19 semantic themes for the CSFs of customer brand co-creation behavior in three levels of “organizational readiness”, “community support and governance” and “customer willingness and interaction”. The results obtained from scenario analysis illustrate that “strategic attitude towards co-creation”, “expert knowledge in the field of co-creation”, and “preparedness of managers” are the most important influential factors. Furthermore, “brand loyalty”, “brand trust” and “customer identification with the brand” are as the most influencing factors. Forward-facing and backward-facing scenarios and also their overlap indicate the importance of "strategic attitude of co-creation" and "managers' readiness". Therefore, companies need to pay special attention to these two factors.

The results of the research emphasize the need for a long-term perspective in co-creation behavior, attracting managers based on the necessary competencies for brand co-creation and in-service training. In the formation of a strategic attitude in the organization towards the customer brand co-creation approach, it is suggested that managers of companies understand this approach with details, know its possible advantages and disadvantages, examine the challenges of this direction, and formulate a comprehensive plan to achieve long-term objectives in the field of customer communication and also partnership strengthen with customers.Managers' readiness is considered as one of the most important CSFs in the formation of customer brand co-creation behavior. It is suggested that the companies consider benefits of the partnership with customers and this approach in the path of brand growth and development and specialized contents prepare about the advantages and disadvantages of using brand co-creation for managers which increase their knowledge and make more informed decisions in this field. The most important action is to attract capable managers according to the personality traits and skills necessary for co-creation. In-service trainings and promotion path based on merit will also be complementary steps for this issue.Since there is no research has in the field of competencies required for managers in order to co-create the brand and the role of managers' preparation in this process is high, it is suggested to implement a research in this field. Furthermore, due to the limitations of empirical research, using the causal relationships and hypotheses raised among customer brand co-creation behavior and other variables of branding and marketing is suggested that the validity of these relationships in different businesses should be investigated.

This research has been done with the aim of developing Iran's banking scenarios with an emphasis on big data. The current research is practical in terms of orientation and exploratory in terms of the goal. It is also mixed in terms of its philosophical, pragmatic and methodological foundations. To carry out the research in the first stage, 20 key drivers of the research were extracted through literature review and interviews with banking and technology experts. After screening with the fuzzy Delphi method, 8 factors were removed and the rest were evaluated with the Marcus decision making technique. The findings of the research show that the two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. According to the findings of the research, considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

Financial innovations has been challenged the banking sector and can improve it. They cover a variety of financial businesses such as online lending, asset management platforms, trading management, mobile payment platforms, etc. All these services generate a large amount of data every day (Hasan et al, 2020: 1). Analyzing this volume of data is difficult, giving rise to the concept of "big data" (Munawar et al, 2020: 2). Big data as one of the important fields of future technology has attracted the attention of various industries (Raguseo & Vitari, 2018: 5206). In general, big data refers to a large volume of structured or unstructured data that is generated and stored at a high speed (Dicuonzo et al, 2019: 41). Big data has found its position in the banking industry; Because of the useful data they have stored in recent years (Rakhman et al, 2019: 1632). Recent applications of big data in banking have been for improving customer relationship management, marketing, optimizing strategic management and human resources (Parmar, 2018: 33; Hassani et al, 2018: 2). Therefore, it can be said that nowadays big data plays a major role in providing financial and banking services, and the realization of its potential benefits in banking is more from technical aspects and affects the organizational structure of banking and mobilizes a large number of different actors (Diniz et al, 2018: 151- 152). With changes in customer expectations and increased competition, the banking industry is no longer able to ignore technological innovations in the banking sector. Due to the numerous applications and benefits of big data in various industries, including the banking industry, and it's becoming more widespread in the future, this technology is becoming a prominent research topic (Phan & Tran, 2022: 6.)

What are the plausible scenarios for banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data?

Many studies conducted in the field of banking and big data deal with the role of big data in improving the performance of the banking industry (for instance: Shakya & Smys, 2021; Gonsalves & Jadhav, 2020; Hung et al, 2020; Parmar, 2018). Also, another part of the studies conducted with a future research approach in the banking sector without focusing on innovative financial technologies and specifically big data (for instance: Baumgartner & Peter, 2022; Eskandari et al,2020). The focus on innovative banking and financial technologies with a Futures Studies approach has been weak (for instance: Maja & Letaba, 2022; Murinde et al, 2022; Hajiheydari et al, 2021; Broby, 2021; Harris & Wonglimpiyarat, 2019). And the role of big data in the Futures Studies of the banking industry has been seen to be very limited due to the relatively large amount of data available in banks and its effect on performance and gaining a competitive advantage (for instance: Valero et al, 2020). Therefore, despite the studies conducted in the field of banking and big data, some of these researches have paid attention to the present time, and the researches conducted in the future of the banking industry have also been without focusing on the role of big data. Now, the most important theoretical gap in research is the lack of studies on the future of banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data.

The current research is pragmatism due to the use of qualitative and quantitative methods from the perspective of philosophical foundations. It is also exploratory in terms of purpose due to the identification of drivers and practical in terms of direction due to the application of the results in the analysis of the future of banking in Iran. In the current research, two methods of literature review and interviews with experts are used to identify drivers, both of which are qualitative methods. According to Popper, the interview tool is based on the expert dimension. The literature review is evidence-based and uses articles and scientific texts to identify factors. Fuzzy Delphi, which is semi-quantitative and evidence-based, is used to screen and determine key drivers that require great accuracy. Then, to determine the key uncertainties, the MARCOS technique is used based on the importance and uncertainty indicators of the Global Business Network (GBN) approach, which is a quantitative and evidence-based technique. Finally, interviews with focus groups are used to write the scenario, which is a qualitative method based on the expert dimension. The theoretical community of the research includes academic experts and managers of the banking sector and are aware of new banking and financial technologies (Fintechs) and specifically big data. The selection of the participants is based on their knowledge and nobility of the research topic and the importance of their presence in the research, and finally 15 people were selected by purposeful sampling using the snowball method. Experts have at least 10 years of relevant work experience and a master's degree.

This research has clarified the situation of this area by identifying the shaping factors and drivers of the future of banking in Iran. Two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. Considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

Universities and higher education institutions have moved towards diversifying their sources of income due to the reduction of government budgets, economic pressures, the intensity of competition and the decrease in demand for postgraduate education and international financial crises. For this reason, the current research sought to identify the drivers and future scenarios of the revenue sources of universities in Iran. The current research is applied in terms of orientation and its philosophical foundations were pragmatism. Due to the use of qualitative and quantitative techniques, the research methodology had a mixed nature. In this research, the three methods of fuzzy Delphi, Marcos and root definitions are used for data analysis. The tools of data collection in this research are questionnaires and interviews. The theoretical population of the research was managers and income generation consultants of Iran's public universities, and sampling was done in a judgmental manner based on the Knowledge of experts. The sample size in this research is equal to 10 people, which is an ideal number for expert-oriented and judgmental techniques. At first, through literature review and interviews with experts, 25 drivers were extracted. In the following, these drivers were screened by distribution of expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method. Nine drivers with a defuzzy number higher than 0.7 were selected for final prioritization. The screened drivers were evaluated using the Marcos method and considering the three indicators of experts' expertise, importance and certainty. The two drivers of foreign sanctions and restrictions and the nature of the relationship between universities and industries and businesses in the society had the most uncertainty and importance and were chosen for scenario planning. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios were developed with the titles dynamic university, dependent university, resilient university and isolated university. A dynamic university represents the most favorable situation and an isolated university represents the worst situation. At the end, research suggestions were presented based on negative dialectic and Schopenhauerian approaches, considering the worst scenario, that is, the isolated university scenario, and the two final drivers.

The basis of competition in knowledge-based companies is based on knowledge, and the company that can manage this category correctly and choose the right strategy for it will be the final winner of the competition. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to formulate possible scenarios and, as a result, appropriate strategies, by forecasting factors and components affecting knowledge management strategies in knowledge-based companies. This research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it is survey type and exploratory. The statistical population of this research was made up of 97 managers and experts in 46 knowledge-based companies located in Shiraz Chemical Industries Technology Town and which according to the type and stages of the research, 13-person, 6-person and 6-person teams were selected in a judgmental manner. In the first stage, 7 factors of organizational culture strategy, technology strategy, organizational strategy, structure strategy, organizational resources, knowledge management and environment were identified . Then, 20 Component were identified in the form of these factors and by reusing the subject literature. Then, using the Delphi method, the identified components were approved by a team of 13 experts. In the second stage, in order to determine the mutual effects, factors and components were included in 2 separate questionnaires and a team of 6 experts completed them. One of these questionnaires was developed for use in MICMAC analysis and the other for use in Scenario Wizard software. The results of the scenario wizard software presented 4 acceptable (strong) scenarios, among which 3 optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios were analyzed and the results of the corresponding scenarios were presented in 7 factors.

Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service disruption, as well as the recovery speed, are just a few of the many dimensions along which to quantify the effect of an epidemic on society's fabric. Scenarios tell future stories that are likely to occur in the form of stories and provide alternative narratives about situations related to the future development of epidemics. Scenario writing is one of the best and most powerful tools for recognizing and examining the future of science, which can be used to identify and examine future environmental changes and uncertainties In terms of practical purpose, the present research has been done in terms of exploratory method at exploratory level and based on futures research and scenario approach. And reduction policies using effective indicators in the social resilience of Iran's metropolises with the sample case of Ahvaz metropolis with a future approach, provides research on the prevalence of epidemics. Propulsion forces are identified by a specific Delphi method, and then these factors are prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, and the most critical determinants are used, and Micmac software is used to write possible scenarios. According to the research findings, among these factors, inflation is the most key factor in the social resilience of the metropolis in the face of infectious diseases. Have been calculated.

Disruption in the supply chain is an event that disrupts the normal flow of goods and services in the production process, and this issue can have negative consequences on the performance of the operation, financial and market areas of businesses. Managing these risks, that is, making the supply chain resilient, is one of the current and future challenges of organizations. The food industry is one of the industries that both in terms of the extent of the regional and global market, has the aspect of export and foreign exchange and employment creation, and in terms of the scope of food consumption in the country, it is considered important and valuable as necessary and relatively necessary goods for ensuring food security. This study is aimed at identifying the most important factors affecting the resilience of the supply chain of Kale company in a 10-year horizon (as one of the active companies in the country's food industry) and to discover the future scenarios, the   company is facing in the field of supply chain resilience. The research in terms of goal is exploratory, in terms of audience is applied and in terms of time is cross- sectional. The data collected through semi- structured interviews and questionnaire. In this research we used the new futuristic knowledge of   exploratory structural   analysis methods. The data was collected through a semi-structured interviews and questionnaire.   We also used structural analysis to analyze data with the help of Mic Mac   software, and for scenario analysis and its compilation, Scenario Vizard software was used. The research results show, the 6 key strategic factors that are influential on the resilience of the supply chain of Kale Dairy Company are: economic, environmental, technological, social, political and internal organizational. The results of Scenario Wizard also showed 211 scenarios with weak probability of occurrence, 7 plausible scenarios and 2 scenarios with strong probability to occur. Finally, several strategies are also provided.