آینده نگاری

Today, the growth of urbanization, the increase in urban population, and the subsequent rise in population density in cities have led to a rise in natural and man-made accidents and crises, along with their associated vulnerabilities In the meantime, the science of foresight has, for more than seventy years, focused on preparing for crises and events that may cause surprises in the future. In this context, future research and planning based on data analysis form the foundation of crisis management. The present research was conducted to identify the key crises affecting the development of Oshan, Fasham, Meygoon city using a foresight approach. In this descriptive-analytical research, the environmental scanning technique was first used to identify potential crises affecting the development of Oshan, Fasham, Meygoon city. Subsequently, based on a questionnaire distributed among experts and elites, and within the framework of the matrix of mutual effects in the MicMac software environment, the direct and indirect impact of each crisis was measured. Finally, the key crises were identified based on their impact scores. The results of this research indicate that the immigration of native people, cultural conflicts caused by the arrival of different ethnic groups in the city, earthquakes, landslides, urban floods, mountain falls, avalanches, blocked roads, attacks by wild animals, fires, the collapse of unsafe and unsustainable buildings, mistrust toward the institutions responsible for the city, inconsistency and incompatibility between these institutions, and the lack of necessary training for dealing with events are among the potential crises affecting the development of Oshan, Fasham, Meygoon city. Among these, earthquakes, landslides, mountain falls, urban floods, and avalanches are identified as the key crises of the city.

Challenges of modern urban life such as; Competition between cities and urban areas, urban sustainability, the need to seize opportunities and avoid threats in social and cultural developments, mass demographic change and environmental and social problems lead to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of tools Variety has become desirable to build the future.The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the key factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach. Using existing studies in the field of urban development, six indicators were selected and classified. The statistical population of the study is the city of Tehran and its statistical sample is 30 experts and specialists in urban and regional planning. By studying library resources, all the factors affecting the development of Tehran were studied and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, research findings were completed and based on them, a questionnaire was developed and the survey process began with the help of software ( MicMac) and with the interaction analysis method, data analysis and research scenarios were presented. According to the results of 4 factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were recognized as the first influential factors of the system. According to the scores of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of metropolitan development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability and the drivers that cause the most uncertainty. In order to present the future scenarios of Tehran development, it was determined that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic situation and poverty were selected as the most influential and uncertainty variables.

The field of science and technology and universities have an important role as the main drivers of power in the set of elements of progress of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify the future of the institution of science in the Islamic Republic of Iran with emphasis on the civilization implications, which is based on identifying the drivers of the institution of science, uncertainties and scenarios.  The question of this research can be posed as follows: What are the future scenarios of the science institution of the Islamic Republic of Iran with emphasis on the civilization implications? The research method is based on the scenario method (GBN). In the findings section, key drivers have been identified and the two main uncertainties »focus on education and research versus activity in the system of innovation and governance« and »focus on the national arena versus internationalization« have been identified. Finally, the following four scenarios have been identified: »Focus on education and research at the national level«, »Focus on education and research at the international level«, »Focus on activity in the Ecosystem of innovation and governance at the national level« and »Focus on activity in Ecosystem of Innovation and Global Governance».

Due to its importance and its effectiveness in all aspects of a sovereignty, election studies have a great importance and long history. Elections are an epitome of the national and foreign interests of a nation. studying the phenomenon of the elections due to the complexity and challenges associated with them and the ambiguous space , and the uncertainty of the following uncertainty , will enable the rulers to take effective and effective actions . according to the extent of the phenomenon of elections and the need for comprehensive knowledge of it , the aim of this study is to identify the issues of presidential elections and consider the reciprocal effect of issues on each other to be exploited in the interests of the islamic republic of iran . in this study , after conducting library studies and investigating the results of the election phenomenon , 12 top variables were selected according to experts as superior variables , finally using the method of mutual influence analysis and Mic Mac software between variables and their direct and indirect interaction

New cities have been built with the approach of attracting the population of large cities overflowing in their immediate vicinity, which will face environmental issues in the future, as the process of attracting population continues. Air and noise pollution caused by pendulum migration and physical development has led to the growth of environmental issues in the new city of Parand. Accordingly, this study examines the effects of the physical development of the new city of Parand on the future environment of the city. The type of research is applied and the method of the study is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population is specialists and experts and the sample size using multi-stage sampling method is 60 people. The required data has been collected through library method and field study (questionnaire). Inferential statistical methods such as regression coefficients, T-test and hierarchical analysis model have been used to analyze the data. Findings show that part of the environmental issues of Parand is affected by the urban complex of Tehran. Another part is due to the formation and development of Parand city itself، such as air pollution caused by industrial activities in the southern part of the city، pollution caused by urban and industrial wastewater and municipal waste production near Imam Khomeini International Airport close to Tehran-Saveh road and finally the prevailing winds in the region (west to east). Findings show that the growth rate of migration - physical development - urban growth rate has direct effects on increasing environmental issues in the new city of Parand in indicators such as noise and air pollution (being located in the Tehran-Saveh belt and increasing pendulum migration from the new city Parand to Tehran and Karaj) and environmental pollution due to the physical development of this city (pollution due to physical development and construction growth).