ardebil province

Millet fodder plant is one of the important plants in Iran and the world, and due to its abundance of nutrients and its resistance to drought, it has a special advantage over other forages.The purpose of this research is to identify the areas prone to millet fodder cultivation in Ardabil province with multi-criteria methods and using the data of climatic elements and factors; Rainfall, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, altitude, slope and soil depth.AHP, ANP, DEMATEL, Shannon Antropy and WLC methods were used to determine the weights of criteria and options.By using the weighted linear combination method in the GIS environment, information layers were integrated and the final map of millet fodder cultivation was prepared.The results showed that about 25% are very suitable, 36% are suitable, 30% are slightly suitable and 4.05% are unsuitable for millet fodder cultivation in Ardabil province.The results of AHP, ANP, DEMATE models showed that rainfall and temperature criteria, and in the Shannon Antropy model, height and slope have the most influence during the growth period of millet fodder.The output classification of two WLC and Antropy Shanon models about options showed that millet fodder cultivation areas overlap in both methods and the northern and central regions of the province have suitable conditions for millet fodder cultivation.

The sorghum forage plant with the scientific name Sorghum bicolor Moench belongs to the cereal family. This fodder is one of the most likely crop plants to drought stress and it has been called the camel of the crop plants of the world. Sorghum is considered a short-day plant and its suitable day length is 10 to 12 hours. Sorghum is resistant to dehydration and consumes 35-40% less water than corn during its growth period. You can grow it in the tropics all year round very sensitive about the spring cold. Length of forage growth period of sorghum based on climatic influence, environmental, agronomic and genotype factors has suggested at least 90 to more than 150 days in three main phases: vegetative, inflorescence development and seed growth. Also, it has specified the stages of development of sorghum as follows: stage zero; greening, observation of stalk pods on the soil surface. Step 1; View the third leaf collar. Step 2; View the fifth leaf collar. Step 3: Transition from vegetative to reproductive. Step 4 – Exit the flag leaf vertices. Step 5, Cluster Cover. Stage 6; 50 percent pollination. Step 7; Soft paste. Step 8; Stiff paste. Stage 9: Physiological Proceedings. The results showed that sorghum is cultivated at latitude between 45° of the northern hemisphere to 45° in the southern hemisphere, and in Philippines the height of sorghum is 1500 meters and in East Africa between 90 and 1500 m in East Africa, in America 25 to 850 m and in Africa from 400 m to 2500 m and generally cultivated from zero to 1500 m above sea level. Considering the importance of protein in the human diet, it is necessary to increase the production of fodder plants that are the source of animal protein production. In this research, an attempt is made to prepare suitable areas for the cultivation of sorghum fodder plant, which is very important for livestock feeding in Ardabil province, using the methods and criteria of the study of agricultural climate zoning map of sorghum fodder cultivation in Ardabil province.

Ardabil province is located in north-west of Iran and its location is at latitude of 37° and 45 minutes to 39° 42 minutes in the northern hemisphere and in geographical length of 47° and 3 minutes to 48° and 55 minutes of eastern longitude. Its area is about 17953 square kilometers (about 1.09% of the country's area). In this study, the optimum climatic requirement of sorghum forage cultivation from available sources was determined. Then, according to the favorable climatic requirement, precipitation, temperature, 12 synoptic stations during the statistical period (1400-2000) were obtained from Ardabil Meteorological Department and soil elevation, slope and depth maps were prepared from the relevant organizations. Also, multi-criteria decision making models, Shannon entropy, ANP and WLC weighted combined method and ARC GIS software, Export Choice and Super Decision software have been used for research. Shannon entropy model: It was introduced in 1972 by Shannon and Weaver. Shannon's entropy method works by saying that the greater the dispersion in a given index, the more important the index is (Shannon, 1988).Analytic Network Process (ANP):Network analysis is one of the multi-criteria decision making techniques and the developed form of analytical hierarchy process. This method is used to solve problems in which criteria and options are not independent of each other. In this process, measurement of relative values and significance such as analytic hierarchy process is done by paired comparison.Weighted Linear Composition (WLC):Weighted linear combination method is the most common technique in multi-criteria evaluation analysis. The purpose of multi-criteria assessment is to select the best option (alternative) based on their ranking through the evaluation of the main multi-criteria. This method is based on the concept of weighted average. Direct analysis and decision making based on the relative importance of the study gives weights to the criteria. The weighted combination method can be implemented using the geographic information system and the overlapping capabilities of this system. It is practical to use this method in both raster and vector GIS formats. After the final value of each option is determined, the options with the highest value will be the most suitable option for the intended purpose.

Shannon Entropy: In Shannon's entropy model, quantitative data collection is used by using questionnaires. In this model, five criteria: precipitation, temperature, elevation, slope and depth of soil were analyzed in seven stages. Data matrix formation was selected based on i option and j index. Then, the normalization of the data matrix numbers was done in order to perform other phases of Shannon's entropy model. The final ranking of the studied options for sorghum cultivation in Ardabil province was based on the studied criteria and after determining the importance factor of the indicators (WJ), the final prioritization of the options was formed by multiplication of the components of the group normalized decision matrix in the importance factor of indicators (WJ) Formation of priority coefficient matrix. Suitable options for sorghum cultivation compared to each index was formed. Finally, from the total row of priority coefficient of each option, the appropriate areas were formed for the Sorghum cultivation was estimated. The results showed that Bilehsavar and Parsabad regions with the degree of importance of 0.105 and 0.095 in terms of the studied criteria are in the appropriate condition for sorghum cultivation in Ardabil province. The results of data analysis based on the method WLC showed that the areas are suitable and very suitable for sorghum fodder cultivation in Ardabil province based on rainfall 49%, temperature 65%, altitude 52%, slope 44% and soil resistance 36%. The results of agricultural climate zoning of sorghum fodder cultivation in Ardabil province with WLC method in GIS environment showed that about 26% are very suitable, 34% are suitable, 35% are slightly suitable and 5% are unsuitable for sorghum fodder cultivation. Also, agricultural climate zoning with Shannon's entropy method showed that about 10% are very suitable, 19% are suitable, 59% are slightly suitable and 12% are unsuitable for sorghum cultivation in Ardabil province. Therefore, based on the methods studied at the level of Ardabil province, in case of water demand, tropical areas such as; Parsabad, Bileh Sowar, Dasht Givi and Ardabil are known to be suitable for sorghum cultivation.

Sainfoin fodder plant is one of the fodder legumes, which is considered among fodder plants in terms of producing good, high-quality and acceptable fodder and competing with alfalfa fodder. Cultivation of this plant is not only compatible with cold regions, it is also established and cultivated well in tropical regions. A study of the morphological stages and evolution of Sainfoin fodder yield in spring season in (first China) showed that Sainfoin fodder has many species in 9 growth periods and is considered one of the most important pasture and crop fodder plants, and the place of its cultivation is the Iranian-Turanian region. In recent years, the development of Sainfoin fodder cultivation has been promoted with the combination of alfalfa fodder, which was effective in increasing the weight of livestock. Also, in Saskatchewan, Canada, in order to provide safe food for livestock, evaluation of Sainfoin and alfalfa fodder cultivation was carried out using rainfall and temperature, and the results showed that temperature and rainfall play an effective role during the growth period from germination to harvest of these fodder plants. The main goal of this research is the zoning of Sainfoin fodder cultivation in Ardabil province using effective criteria during the Sainfoin growth period. The difference between the present research and the studies conducted in this field is that more criteria and new data were used, as well as the efficiency of four methods during the growth period of Sainfoin fodder.

Ardabil province is located in the northwest of Iran, between latitude 37 degrees 45 minutes to 39 degrees 42 minutes and longitude 47 degrees 3 minutes to 48 degrees 55 minutes (Figure 1). This province with an area equal to 17953 square kilometers, the minimum and maximum altitude of the province is 32 meters in Parsabad and 4811 meters in Sablan, respectively. In this research, the data of precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature during the statistical period (1990 to 2020) and altitude, land slope and soil depth were used, as well as ARC GIS and Export Choice software for data analysis and analysis process methods. Hierarchy (AHP), TOPSIS model, Shannon entropy and weighted linear combination (WLC) method were used for weighting and zoning. Hierarchical analysis process method The first step in the hierarchical analysis process is to determine the importance coefficient of the criteria, sub-criteria and options in Sainfoin fodder cultivation. Export Choice software was used to analyze the criteria in the hierarchical process. After determining the relative weight of the criteria, the inconsistency coefficient is calculated. If this coefficient is less than or equal to 0.1, the consistency in the judgments is acceptable. Topsis method The TOPSIS multi-criteria analysis process is as follows. Formation of data matrix: It is calculated based on m criteria and n options. Shannon entropy method The main idea of this method is that the greater the dispersion in the values of an index, the more important that index is. The steps of this method are as follows. Forming the data matrix: First, a two-dimensional matrix of options and indicators is formed, and the value of each indicator in each option is estimated using official statistics and field studies. And the closer the value of dj is to zero, it indicates of Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method This method is the most common technique in multi-criteria analysis based on the concept of weighted average, where the final value of each specific option and the options that have the highest weight will be the target. Equation (12) is used to evaluate each option or Ai: where Xij represents the i-th option in relation to the j-th criterion and Wj is the standardized weight of the j-th criterion, so that the sum of Wj is equal to one. The relative importance weight of each criterion is displayed. By determining the maximum value of Ai, the most priority option is selected. In addition to combining all parameters or layers, the WLC method also considers the importance of each parameter based on the weight given to that parameter. Table (2) shows the optimal climatic requirement of spruce fodder cultivation.

In this research, to locate Sainfoin fodder cultivation from the studied methods and also from the criteria; Precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, altitude, slope and soil depth were used. The results showed that in all methods; Precipitation has the most important effect during the growth period of Sainfoin; Therefore, precipitation is the most limiting criterion in the cultivation of Sainfoin fodder in Ardabil province. The results of the weight criteria with AHP, TOPSIS, and Shannon's Antropy methods showed that precipitation, average temperature and minimum temperature with the highest weight are respectively the most important influencing parameters in Sainfoin fodder cultivation. Also, the results of combining the criteria with the WLC method in the GIS environment showed that the lands of Ardabil province have very suitable (29%), suitable (40%), slightly suitable (26%) and unsuitable (5%) for growing Sainfoin fodder(Fig,5). The results of the weighted value by AHP method showed that precipitation with a weighted criterion of 0.143, maximum temperature of 0.126 and average temperature of 0.089 among the studied parameters have the greatest effect on the growth stages of Sainfoin Finally, with the use of TOPSIS methods, about 5% and Shannon's entropy about 12% of the area of the province is very suitable for cultivating Sainfoin fodder; Therefore, compared to the studied methods in this research, the results showed that the weighted linear combination (WLC) method is the most suitable method for the zoning of Sainfoin in Ardabil province compared to the current situation. Therefore, the suitable areas for growing spruce fodder are located in the north and center of Ardabil province, which is due to the suitable climatic and topographical conditions. Therefore, the suitable areas

Temperature is one of the fundamental elements of the climate of an area, whose transformation can transform the climate structure of any place, for this reason, the study of the temperature trend in different temporal and spatial rules occupies a large part of climatology researches. Most of what is referred to as global warming or climate change includes mostly warming changes and the upward trend of the three components (average, minimum and maximum) of air temperature. Currently, climate threshold phenomena are in the center of researchers' attention because the risk of increasing the frequency, duration and sensitivity of climate thresholds has increased due to the increase of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. The LARS-WG model is a model that downscales the output of GCM models.Researches that focus on the temperature parameter; It is increasing day by day, among them is the research related to the increase in frequency, intensity, recorded global warm periods and the continuity of heat waves, which was done by Perkins et al. (2012). Yu et al. (2019), in their study investigated the temperature changes in the world and the results showed that the temperature anomaly is higher in the oceans and southern latitudes compared to the land and northern latitudes. Hu and Huang (2020) investigated the high temperature anomaly and its relationship with the general circulation of the atmosphere, and the results of their research showed that the highest temperature anomaly occurred in the Arabian Peninsula. Rohbakhsh Sigaroudi et al. (2017) investigated the anomaly of the average minimum and maximum temperature of the warm period of Iran in the period (1951-2010) and concluded that the western half of the country had the largest decrease in the average minimum and maximum temperature. Karmi-Mirazizi et al. (2018) investigated the synoptic patterns that lead to temperature anomalies and thermal changes in the western and northwestern regions during the statistical period (1989-2018). Rababi Sabzevari et al. (1401), in the west and northwest of Iran, analyzed the synoptic patterns that lead to temperature anomalies for 1989 to 2018, and the results indicate the existence of the mid-latitude meridional current as the main cause of temperature anomalies.

Ardabil province is located in the northwest of the Iranian plateau with an area of 17,953 square kilometers and has the coordinates of 37 degrees 7 minutes to 39 degrees 43 minutes north latitude and 47 degrees 19 minutes to 48 degrees 55 minutes east longitude. In this research, in order to achieve the goal of the research, the long-term statistics of the minimum, maximum and daily temperature averages of the selected synoptic stations of Ardabil province (Ardabil, Pars Abad and Meshginshahr) were analyzed. For this purpose, first, the different intensities of the temperature anomalies of the stations were calculated based on the data of 1980-2020 using the Z index. Then, to generate the data of each station under the conditions of climate change, after the preparation and quality control of the data, the variables of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and sunny hours were entered into the LARS-WG model on a daily basis and following the evaluation of the ability of the LARS-WG model in simulating the data observed in these stations, the data of the future period (2021-2021) of these stations was produced, and the ability of the LARS-WG model in simulating the data observed in the synoptic stations of Ardabil province was evaluated. This process is divided into three stages, which include spatial analysis, model validation, and generation of synthetic weather data. The model used is CanESM2 under RCP scenarios. The daily minimum, maximum and average temperature data of synoptic stations during the past statistical period (from 1980, 1985 and 1995 to 2020, respectively) were used to evaluate temperature changes and anomalies in the coming decades (2021-2100) And the frequency of each of the temperature anomaly intensity ranges of the three studied variables was counted and their percentage was calculated. Temperature anomalies were calculated using Z index.

The comparative graphs between minimum and maximum temperature observation data values and their values produced by LARS-WG model for selected stations of Ardabil province confirm the existence of a small difference between these two data and show the high efficiency of this model in simulating Creating the studied variables and producing synthetic air data. The evaluation of the frequency of anomalies of the three components of temperature in this province under three RCP scenarios showed that in the hot months of the coming period, warm anomalies are predominant (more than 50%) and normal conditions are second (30 percent) and cold anomalies have the lowest percentage.The predicted frequency of temperature anomalies using the CanESM2 model fine-tuning under the average scenario (RCP4.5) is higher than the optimistic scenario (RCP2.6) and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) is higher than the average scenario. The difference between the estimates of the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios and the maximum difference between the two hot and cold anomalies reaches its maximum in August. The highest and the lowest percentage of average warm anomaly frequency belong to Pars-Abad and Meshkin-Shahr, respectively. The highest percentage of cold anomaly was calculated in Ardabil and the lowest in Pars-Abad.The order of the different intensities of the temperature anomalies of the three studied components in Ardabil province under the RCP4.5 scenario, from the highest to the lowest percentage, is: normal conditions (31%), moderate heat (29.4%), weak heat (21.4 percent), very hot (6.5 percent), slightly cold (6.1 percent), moderately cold (4.2 percent), very cold, extremely hot and extremely cold (about 1.5 percent)). It can be observed that among the types of temperature anomaly intensities, there is a predominance of moderate heat and weak heat, and extremely hot and extremely cold anomalies are rare and include about 1%. In the other two scenarios, the percentage of warm anomaly prevails over normal conditions and cold anomaly.In the RCP2.6 scenario, the warm anomaly has the highest frequency in August and the lowest frequency in October, and the cold anomaly has the lowest frequency in August and the highest frequency in September. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the warm anomaly is more frequent in August and July and the cold anomaly is more frequent in May and June.

To develop genetically modified organisms in different societies it is necessary to evaluate the public views about genetically modified organisms. So in this research public attitude towards genetically modified organisms and biosafety was evaluated in Ardebil Province in April 2009. This research was done using questionnaires containing 39 questions on the 250 people of Ardebil. According to the results only a few participants didn’t know anything about genetically modified organisms. Most of people agreed with the producing and consuming of these organisms and they believed this is necessary to use them in agriculture. Near to 92% of people agreed with the producing of transgenic plants and 72% agreed with transgenic animals. The knowledge of participants in biosafety was more than our estimate. Close to 85% of people were not familiar with regulatory procedures of prereleasing and pre-commercialization of genetically modified organisms. According to these results, we conclude that public perception of Ardebil about genetically modified organisms were positive recommend that with increasing the knowledge of people about these organisms the acceptance will be further improved.