risk

Background and Theoretical Foundations:

Risk management in maritime transport contracts is of significant importance due to the complex nature and specific conditions of these contracts. This research provides a comprehensive examination of the concept of risk management in maritime transport contracts, analyzing key factors, existing risks, and effective solutions in this field. Maritime transport, as a crucial component of global trade, faces various risks including natural factors such as storms, adverse weather conditions, and legal and operational issues. The paper explores theoretical concepts and legal tools related to risk management and emphasizes the importance of accurate identification and assessment of risks.

The paper employs descriptive and analytical research methods to investigate risk management in maritime transport contracts. The descriptive method focuses on identifying the features and legal and operational requirements, while the analytical method concentrates on analyzing complex relationships and causes of risks and identifying effective strategies. The combination of these methods provides a comprehensive and detailed picture of the current situation and a deeper analysis of risks.

The research identifies and assesses various risks in maritime transport contracts and proposes suitable solutions for mitigating these risks. A key section of the paper analyzes the legal requirements and solutions for risk management, including accurate risk identification, assessment of impacts, and implementation of effective strategies for controlling and financing risks. Additionally, the paper examines risk allocation mechanisms such as exemption clauses, limitation of liability, indemnity clauses, penalty clauses, and insurance, and analyzes their impact on risk management.

The research findings indicate that effective risk management in maritime transport contracts requires a comprehensive and systematic approach. This approach should include accurate identification of risks, proper assessment of their impacts, and implementation of suitable strategies for risk control and financing. The paper highlights that proper interaction and exchange of accurate information between contract parties and the establishment of clear and unambiguous terms are crucial factors in reducing risks and preventing disputes. Finally, it is recommended that the use of the scientific and practical methods presented can enhance risk management processes and contribute to reducing financial and legal losses.

According to the latest UN report, the global population in 2018 was 6.6 billion and the urban population 4.2 billion. By 2050, the global population will reach 7.9 billion and 68 percent of the population will live in urban areas (2020, Liquan et al). The rapid increase in urbanization is leading to the growth of informal settlements in high-risk areas such as landslides, increasing the risk among low-income populations. Although technical and social methods of earthquake risk management are known, in underdeveloped countries these measures are often difficult for complex social, economic, political, and institutional reasons (Smith et al. 2020). The growing trend of urbanization in underdeveloped countries and the housing crisis causes an increase in Halabiabad and the construction of housing without the necessary urban development standards (Valizadeh Kamran et al., 2013). Since informal settlement arises from a context larger than its location and also affects a larger environment, the solution to this problem requires policy and action not only at the small level, but also at the large level (Hakimi and Et al., 1397). Because informal settlements are of relatively poor quality and do not use earthquake-resistant designs, they are expected to be highly vulnerable to earthquakes. In addition, these settlements often occupy areas with a high seismic risk, which may cause landslides and fluids. Hence, hazard and vulnerability pose a significant seismic hazard (2008, et al Castillo).

This study is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and its purpose is applied. To collect data in this study, written documents, statistical data, visual documents and field studies have been used. Also, topographic maps were 1.25000, geological maps were 1.100000, urban maps were 1.000, digital elevation model (DEM) ten meters, main and secondary fault maps and land use maps were used in the research. In the present study, in order to explain the vulnerability situation caused by earthquake risk in informal settlements of Tabriz, a list of criteria was extracted based on the research background and according to the available data, 13 criteria were selected. In order to weight the indicators, the fuzzy model has been used and to rank the indicators and variables, the ELECTRE FUZZY model has been used. Finally, weighted parameters were put into a function to determine the vulnerability of informal settlements in Tabriz using GIS software. • Introduction of variables and indicators.In this study, in order to investigate the risk and risk of earthquake on the context of informal settlements in Tabriz, thirteen indicators have been used, which shows the flowchart Figure 2 of the indicators and research stages.

Data fuzzy:

Fuzzyization is done directly or using algorithms and logical expressions. In the present study, two methods, direct calculation and expert calculation, have been used to fuzzy numbers. In expert calculation, first the range of changes of each parameter is determined, then, according to previous researches, and finally, they are weighted manually, based on reality and according to experts. In order to create fuzzy sets, mathematical functions such as sigmoidal linear threshold, S-shaped, hyperolithic, etc. can be used. • ELECTRE FUZZY method.

The ELECTRE method is one of the most widely used decision-making methods. The ELECTRE FUZZY method is used to consider its uncertainty and to complete the decision performance array. ELECTRE technique means the method of cleaning and selection in accordance with reality. One of the most important compensatory techniques, based on the concept of non-ranking, the answer of this method is based on a set of rankings. This method does not lead to non-ranking relationships, ie it does not necessarily lead to the classification of options but may eliminate options. In this model, all options are evaluated by non-rank comparisons and pairwise comparisons are based on the degree of agreement of the weights and the degree of difference ofthe weighted values.The calculation steps of the mentioned method are as follows:Formation of fuzzy decision matrix- Normalization of the decision matrix- Formation of a normal weighted matrix- Calculate the distance between both options- Build an agreement set and create an agreement matrix- Formation of Boolean matrix agrees- Build the opposite set and create the opposite matrix- Formation of opposite boolean matrix- Formation of the final matrix- Final ranking of options.

Investigating the situation of informal settlements in Tabriz in relation to the occurrence of a possible crisis will play a vital role in efficient management in the event of a crisis. Due to the large fault zone in the city of Tabriz, the informal settlements of this city are often at risk of earthquakes. In the study area, due to high population density, the use of low quality buildings, small parts, etc. during an earthquake, the effects of the disaster will be irreparable. Therefore, determining the vulnerability of informal settlements in Tabriz to earthquakes is of great importance. Which will play a vital role both in planning for resilience and in managing crisis and emergency housing. According to the findings of the present study, the fuzzy electrode method and its integration with GIS has the ability to integrate information with different structures. Therefore, in the present study, data analysis was performed using fuzzy electr model and GIS. The results of the fuzzy electrode method calculations indicate that the informal settlements located in region 3 will experience the lowest vulnerability with a rank of 1, while the informal settlements located in regions 1 and 10 with a rank of 5 will have the highest vulnerability. They will experience vulnerability to earthquake risk. Also, more than 34% of the area of informal settlements in Tabriz is exposed to very high vulnerability and more than 27% are exposed to high vulnerability and more than 25% are exposed to moderate vulnerability and only 12.69% of the texture of settlements Unofficially, the city of Tabriz is exposed to low vulnerability to earthquake risk. In terms of vulnerability spectrum, informal settlements in zones 1 and 10 are in the very high range, informal settlements in zones 7 in the wide range, settlements in zones 4 and 5 in the high to medium range, and informal settlements. Located in Zone 3, they are in the medium to low vulnerability range. Informal settlements located in areas 10 and 1, which are in a very high range of vulnerabilities, include neighborhoods (Yousefabad, Silab, Mola Zeinal, small spring, large spring, Loti Ibrahim, Ahmadabad, Beheshti, 40 meters, Ismail Baqal, Ghorbani, Idelu, Khalilabad). These neighborhoods have the highest population density and fine-grained texture, most of them do not have strong buildings and are built without proper planning, and in terms of the passage parameter, they have narrow and narrow passages. And have mostly spread in the area of North Tabriz fault. Therefore, increasing the values of parameters such as population density, building quality, distance from the fault, building density, etc. have caused informal settlements located in these neighborhoods to be in a very high range of vulnerabilities. In general, it can be concluded that if the construction is properly managed and the rules of 2800 earthquake regulations are strictly observed in the informal settlements of Tabriz, we will see a decrease in earthquake hazards.

Today global population growth has led to the rapid development of urbanization and the growth of informal settlements. These settlements are often developed in areas that are exposed to hazards such as earthquakes. Although technical models of earthquake management have been identified, but in third world countries due to social, economic and ... complexity, these measures are often associated with many problems (Smith et al. 2020: 67). Addressing vulnerability in informal settlements where severe natural disasters pose multiple risks to millions of people is critical. Understanding the effects of adjustment and adaptation strategies in the housing sector helps decision makers to choose options that improve the quality of life and reduce development and equality gaps in cities. Adaptation measures such as hazard mapping, development of early warning systems (EWS), preparedness plans and preventive risk strategies, especially in informal settlements, can support decision makers and stakeholders in reducing exposure and vulnerability to potential earthquakes. Kend (2018, Emma Purio et al) Catastrophic natural hazards, such as earthquakes, are serious threats to human life in informal settlements. Therefore, assessing the degree of probability and vulnerability in disaster management is necessary in order to manage the city and help decision makers to recognize the impact of various factors and understand the deficiencies in each area, appropriate guides are necessary. The critical condition of buildings and their zoning in terms of vulnerability should be included in government observations and risk reduction programs should be improved. The lack of distribution of suitable space inside the city and improper planning of urban development can be dangerous factors in the future (2020, Ratiranjan et al).

The method of this research is descriptive-analytical and its purpose is applied. The data used in the research are: statistical block, geological map, topographic map of 1.25000, digital elevation points of ten meters, fault map of the area, land use map of the studied area and field studies. Also with the aim of determining the vulnerability of informal settlements in Tabriz due to earthquake risk indicators (width of passage, quality of buildings, material, number of floors, distance from public open space, distance from urban facilities, distance from medical centers Population density, building density, distance from the fault, geological type, plot area, land use) were selected as the final criteria according to the possibility of data access. Also, in order to analyze the data, GIS ARC software and WASPAS model, which is one of the newest and most efficient ranking methods, have been used.WASPAS technique: The Vaspas technique was announced by Zavadskas in 2012 (Zavadskas, 2012). This method is one of the relatively new methods of multi-criteria decision making with very high accuracy, which is actually derived from two models (total weight model) and (weight multiplication model) (Zavadskas, 2012). The calculation steps of the mentioned method are as follows:Forming a decision array according to the current situation. Calibrate and deregulate the decision array. Calculate the weight of each criterion using one of the weighting methods such as Shannon entropy, AHP or ANP Estimation of veriəns values of standardized criteria. Calculate the relative veriəns of the samples and determine the values of the eigenvectors.Perform the final ranking.

In order to form a matrix (options and criteria) in the WASPAS technique, the options must be specified. Therefore, the areas where the informal settlements of Tabriz are located were considered as WASPAS model options. (Option 1 includes informal settlements in Zone 1, option 2 includes informal settlements in Zone 3, option 3 includes informal settlements in Zone 4, option 4 includes informal settlements in Zone 5, option 5 includes informal settlements Located in Area 7, Option 6 includes informal settlements located in Area 10). In the next step, the values of each criterion for each option were determined. Finally, based on the mentioned relations for WASPAS technique, calculations were performed in MATLAB software environment, the results of the mentioned model are presented in Table 2.The weights assigned to each of the criteria are normalized and are presented in Table 2. According to the table above, informal settlements in District 10 are ranked first in terms of vulnerability, and settlements in District 5 are ranked 6th. Therefore, according to the results of the table above, the most vulnerable informal settlements belong to District 10. In the next step, the changes in the weights measured according to the research technique were analyzed on each of the research indicators. Therefore, all research indicators were extracted in terms of vulnerability and maps related to each of the parameters were produced (Figure 2).

Analyzing the situation of informal settlements in Tabriz in the face of a possible crisis will play an important role in proper management during a crisis. Due to the fact that there is a large fault area in the city of Tabriz. Therefore, its informal settlements are always at risk of earthquakes. substandard materials, etc. in the event of an earthquake, the effects of the disaster will be irreparable. As a result, determining the vulnerability of informal settlements in Tabriz to earthquakes is of great importance. Which will play a very important role both in terms of planning for resilience and in terms of crisis management and providing emergency accommodation. The findings of the present study indicate that the WASPAS model and its integration with GIS can integrate layers with different structures. Accordingly, in this study, data analysis was performed using WASPAS and GIS techniques. The results of the WASPAS technique indicate that informal settlements in District 5 will have the lowest vulnerability in the event of an earthquake with a rank of 1, but informal settlements in District 10 with a rank of 6 will have the highest vulnerability. Also, more than 57% of the area of informal settlements in Tabriz is exposed to very high vulnerability and 11.05% is exposed to high vulnerability and 03.27% is exposed to moderate vulnerability and only 4.01% of the informal settlements in Tabriz They are at low vulnerability. Also in terms of vulnerability spectrum of informal settlements located in zones 10 and 1 in the very high range, informal settlements located in zone 7 in the high to medium range, then informal settlements located in zone 3 in the medium range And informal settlements in zone 4 are in the medium to low range and informal settlements in zone 5 are in the low to medium range of vulnerabilities. Due to the location of the study area in the zone with high earthquake risk, to deal with any hazards caused by these hazards, construction must be done in accordance with the 2800 earthquake regulations. Also, the use of durable materials such as steel frame or reinforced concrete will reduce the risks of earthquakes.