risk management

In the supply chain, factors such as political issues, demand fluctuations, technological changes, financial instability, and natural disasters lead to increased uncertainty and the emergence of various risks. One of the most important and complex stages of logistical support in organizations, particularly in military and law enforcement organizations, is the forecasting process. Due to its vital role in improving logistical functions, this process highlights the necessity of designing and establishing effective forecasting systems. This research examines the importance of forecasting and estimation in logistical functions and analyzes the requirements that must be followed when designing a forecasting system for the country’s 10-year horizon. The research method is a questionnaire survey evaluated by 120 participants. The case study of this research is the Amirabad Special Economic Zone (Mazandaran), from which all necessary information and data have been collected. This region plays a crucial role in trade and economic development in northern Iran, with various investments in logistics and transportation.

The construction project plays an important role in the economy and welfare of the people of every society. Every year, large budgets are spent on the implementation of construction projects in Iran. Risk management is the missing link in the studies and implementation of construction projects in Iran, which is either less paid or is not a priority. In this article, an attempt has been made to deal with the phenomenon of risk management of construction projects. First, the risk management of the construction project is done using the FMEA method, then modeling this phenomenon using the deep learning method is on the agenda. The database for deep learning modeling has been completed using the information of the first stage. The input and output parameters are also selected based on the number and type of available data. The research results show that the optimal structure of the deep learning method has been introduced by combining the CNN neural network and the MVO optimization algorithm, with a correlation coefficient above 90% and an error index below 0.5. The main discussion of this research is sensitivity analysis on the optimal model. This process has been done by using the relative and absolute derivative of the output with respect to each input based on different statistical categories according to the method of Lu et al. Finally, the most effective input parameter is introduced and the output sensitivity is determined.

The Railway transportation industry is one of the major indicators of the development of countries. On the other hand, the railway transportation sector has many risks and uncertainties that can be considered as a negative factor from the perspective of investors. The purpose of this study is to identify and manage the risk of the railway transportation sector, which has been used as an example of the listed Stock exchange companies of railway transport. The risks of the railway transportation sector, especially the systematic risk of rail stock companies, are estimated with the beta coefficient, and then the ranking of rail stocks will be done according to the systematic risk. Related stocks are priced according to systematic risk with the capital assets pricing model. After identifying the risks of this sector, for risk management, option valuation will be used using the binomial model. Finally, the sensitivity of the option price of railway shares is checked using Greek parameters. Due to the large volume of data and their non-normality, in order to predict the future price and the exercise price of stocks, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for option pricing. According to the outputs of the model and the examination of the movement path and price changes of rail stocks and option prices with the help of the binomial model in Python and DERIVAGEM software, as well as the estimation of the option price sensitivity by Greek parameters, relevant analyzes are expressed for different rail stocks.

Risk allocation is a strategic decision in project management. But the ‎examination of the practical experience of managing construction projects ‎shows that the process of allocating risks is generally based on the personal ‎judgments of employers, so increases the cost and time of the project. The ‎purpose of this article is to provide a quantitative model for selecting the ‎optimal allocation of project risks, in a way that provides a balanced model ‎agreed upon by all contractual parties. To design the proposed model, by ‎analyzing the behavior characteristics and expectations of the employer in ‎the process of risk allocation, three goals: 1) transferring the risk to the most ‎capable agent, 2) paying the lowest cost of risk management and 3) ‎achieving the lowest level of risk for the employer. has been introduced. ‎Then, by developing quantitative functions to measure these three goals, a ‎multi-criteria decision model is presented that can measure the degree of ‎achievement of the employer's goals in different patterns of risk allocation. ‎By receiving the judgment of the decision maker in the form of qualitative ‎criteria, the proposed model evaluates different risk allocation options and ‎achieves the most appropriate project risk allocation pattern in the form of a ‎Pareto optimal curve. The proposed model in a A case study has been ‎implemented and its results have been compared with some of the most ‎widely used risk allocation models. The results of this model show that ‎achieving a balanced pattern of risk allocation that satisfies the interests of ‎all parties in the project requires attention to the conflicting goals of the ‎employer. While focusing on transferring the maximum risk to the other ‎party, it will increase the project costs and eventually not achieve other time ‎and financial goals of the project.‎

Project delivery systems, as the structure of the contract and the formation ‎of relations between the project ‎participants, create a framework for the ‎formation of contracts of different types of projects by allocating risk ‎‎among the project participants. Delivery systems can greatly affect the ‎time, financial, or quality goals of the ‎organization and are generally ‎classified into 5 categories: In house, Traditional, Design Build, Construct ‎‎management, and Public-Private Partnership (PPP). Each delivery system ‎has its own advantages and limitations, ‎which makes the choice between ‎them dependent on the project conditions and client's expectations. In this ‎article, ‎a new approach based on the allocation of contractual risks is ‎presented, with the help of which the employer can ‎choose the project ‎procurement system depending on the level of risk acceptable by the ‎employer. For this purpose, ‎by studying the records of risk allocation in ‎‎26 water projects in Iran, 14 main Contractual Risks have been ‎‎introduced, which are the basis of decision making for the project delivery ‎system. Based on his organizational ‎capacity in accepting a certain level ‎of 14 risks, the decision maker can select the appropriate delivery system ‎for ‎the project. Based on this approach, a multi-objective decision-making ‎model has been developed, which, by ‎receiving the project's risk profile, ‎quantitatively suggests the optimal structure and determines its level of ‎risks ‎exposure (in the form of an increase in the project's cost price). The ‎sensitivity analysis tool of this model also ‎guides the employer which ‎contractual tools or management capacities the employer should provide ‎in case of ‎using a specific contractual model.‎

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused numerous damages and challenges in the construction industry, in addition to taking a significant number of human lives and imposing heavy costs in the healthcare sector. These damages and challenges have undoubtedly resulted in extensive economic and social consequences for countries worldwide. Therefore, examining these challenges and providing appropriate solutions during times of crisis and widespread virus transmission is of utmost importance. In this research, a list of damages and challenges associated with COVID-19's spread on active construction projects was first compiled through library studies. Then, using a Likert-scale questionnaire, the opinions of project management experts in Kerman city were collected and analyzed in the SPSS software. The triangular fuzzy number comparison matrix was completed and the prioritization of indicators and sub-indicators was performed using the Super Decision software. Finally, the decision matrix was formed based on the multi-criteria TOPSIS fuzzy method using the criteria of "impact level," "importance degree," and "preventability of damage." The identified damages were ranked using the relevant questionnaire, and ultimately, risk management solutions were provided through appropriate responses. Based on the research findings, damages related to "financial challenges," "health challenges," "work and organizational challenges," and "time and scheduling challenges" had the most significant impact on active construction projects, respectively.

Green building is considered as an effective method for the interaction between the rapid development of construction, conservation of resources with the least impact on the environment, and the distribution of renewable and clean energy. While green building has such potential benefits, the risks associated with green buildings have been less evaluated. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify and rank the upcoming risks of the development and construction of green buildings in Iran, and to determine the importance of the four limitations of the project in the most effective identified risks and to prioritize the limitations in green building projects. In this research, 10 risks were identified including: economic, contractual, managerial, educational, legal, industry, functional, market, environmental and safety, by examining and evaluating the issue of the development and construction of green buildings in scientific and research sources. Then, by designing and compiling the questionnaire tool, the research objectives were evaluated in two stages. In the first step, the identified risks were ranked using the Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) method and the most effective risks were determined. During the second stage, with the aim of determining the importance of the four limitations of project management and the impact of the most effective risks on the four limitations, it was evaluated and determined by the Fuzzy Hierarchy Analysis (FAHP) method. The results of the first stage showed that the five economic, market, performance, industry and safety risks are the most effective risks for the development and construction of green buildings. The results of the second phase showed that the importance of quality limitation was the first priority, and after that, cost, time, and work area were placed in the next priorities.

Every year, a significant portion of the country's credits and financial resources are allocated to investment in civil and infrastructural projects. Risk management can prevent cost escalation and assist in completing projects within the designated time and budget. This study aims to identify factors contributing to the lack of implementation of risk management in small-scale civil projects in the city of Abadan. The research utilizes a descriptive method for data collection and employs exploratory factor analysis and TOPSIS analytical methods to identify and prioritize the factors. The results indicate that the influential factors in the lack of implementing risk management include four main elements (technical risk barriers, project management and leadership obstacles, construction risk barriers, financial risk barriers), among which the option of insufficient knowledge of the contractor has priority over other options.

Purpose and subject: Concrete is one of the most widely materials used in construction projects, whose technology is very broad and includes various specialties. On the other hand, the importance of construction projects in various areas of the national economy and industry of the country is undeniable, and since these types of projects are inherently risky, in the present research, the risks of not using advanced concrete in these projects are investigated and value engineering is used to reduce their effects. For this purpose, in the framework of the proposed method, first, the risks caused by not using advanced concrete in construction projects were extracted according to the opinion of experts and specialists in this field and confirmed using statistical methods. Then the relevant risks were prioritized and ranked using value engineering. The results showed that the three risks that have the highest priority are: customer dissatisfaction, reduced price and lack of resistance to earthquakes. At the end, suggestions were made to reduce these risks.

Since investment in any field is associated with risk and uncertainty, this article seeks to identify and prioritize investment risks in the industry. Assessing the amount of investment risk in these projects is one of the key issues in the field of investment in industries with advanced technology. What is obvious is that there is a big difference between the business environments and administrative systems of different countries; Therefore, the effective criteria for investment in different countries are not the same. Today, risk management is a suitable solution to deal with risks that may occur in a project. In risk response analysis, risks are often assumed to be interdependent, in fact, risks in a project mutually influence each other, and independent risk rarely exists. In addition, the implementation of the management of various projects, including construction projects, has many ambiguous cases. The purpose of project risk management is to plan, organize, direct and control the activities and processes of a project. in such a way that the positive effects (opportunities) are maximized and the negative effects (threats) are minimized. A systematic process of planning to identify, analyze, respond and monitor project risk. This management includes processes, tools and techniques that help the project manager to maximize the probability of positive event results and minimize the probability of negative event results. By using the complete process of project risk management, it can be claimed that it is the project manager who is the master of the uncertain conditions of the project, not that the conditions and events make the management captive. The purpose of preparing this article was to examine the risks in investment projects and provide solutions to control or reduce them.

Recognizing the nature of risks effective on oil projects is an important issue in the risk management of companies such as Iranian Oil Pipeline and Telecommunication Company. This study aims at identifying risks and extracting the structure of relationships between critical risks of Yazd-Naein oil pipeline construction project using Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) to help the pillars of the project. To do this, using different techniques, first the critical risks of the project are identified and prioritized and then using ISM, the reciprocal relationships between risks and their effectiveness on each other are recognized. This study has made attempt to make a more realistic comprehension for confrontation with non-security caused by the risks of Yazd-Naein oil pipeline construction project using ISM. The results showed that sanctions risk on project has to be concentrated by risk management since it has the highest effect on other risks and the least affectability from them. Also, since the opinion of experts have been used in this study, in the case of using in similar projects, it is expected that the implementation of the mentioned structure may positively and significantly influence the achievement of project goals such as cost, time, project scope, quality and sanitation, security and environment.

Risk management is one of the most important aspects of the project. Risk management includes various areas such as planning, identifying, evaluating and controlling risk. In construction projects, due to the fact that the process of project implementation is known before the start, first the project risks are identified so that in case of encountering them during implementation, principled and efficient measures are taken. In research and development projects; Risk management is used to improve project implementation process, cost management, increase project profitability and is effective as a scientific and effective tool to reduce risk and loss. One of the most common methods of risk identification is to use the Delphi method and consult experts and the project team. This study identifies the risks of the design phase of the research and development project of rapid cable structure design, for this purpose 313 risks identified in eight groups of general executive risks: structural, mechanical, geotechnical and foundation, then three proposed designs were developed according to the evaluation of the severity of the effect and the probability of risks, and eight designs were obtained. According to the results obtained from the risks, these eight designs with eight criteria of fast construction, portability, These two methods are among the oldest methods of multi-criteria selection. In the scoring method, the score is at the disposal of experts, but in the method of sorting designs, they are placed in order. Finally, the selected designs were determined according to the effective parameter of span length.

By examining the conditions of construction projects and costs related to occupational health and safety incidents, it is determined that occupational hazards and the management of safety and health risks are one of the most important missions and responsibilities of the project management system. Therefore, this study aims to Occupational health and safety risk assessment was carried out in one of the shopping center construction projects in Tehran.This research is a descriptive-analytical study with a direct observation approach. The sample in this research was all project employees in the number of 80 samples, which were purposefully sampled and selected.The data were analyzed using the risk management form by the FMEA method.

With the increasing urbanization and expansion of cities, the implementation of development plans and proper implementation of urban projects that meet all aspects of urban life and the needs of citizens, is an inevitable necessity. In urban projects, as in other construction projects, the success and satisfaction of all stakeholders is the most important thing in project management. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the development projects of Karaj and provide solutions for their better and more appropriate implementation. Therefore, a researcher-made questionnaire was prepared based on the components extracted from previous studies and distributed among civil engineering experts in Karaj Municipality. The data were used using one of the new decision-making methods based on the mental characteristics of decision-makers. Risk management criteria have been analyzed. The results of the study showed that among the risk factors in urban development projects, the factor of financial and economic resources as the most effective and the factor of rules and regulations as the weakest factor in the success of construction projects from the perspective of risk-averse managers. Using Friedman test, among the 10 areas of the American Project Management Standard, cost management with a coefficient of 8.24, time management with a coefficient of 8.15 and integration management with 7.75 were recognized as the highest areas of knowledge. Finally, by identifying and ranking the risk factors, a model with detailed solutions for the success of urban development projects is presented.

Environmental hazards are the result of improper human activity and exploitation of the environment. Identification and analysis of these hazards in field of geography could we studied from two different point of views.. Kharrazi Highway is an important highway in Tehran, the construction of which began three decades ago and is now in use. This highway is one of the routes whose identification of hazards according to the geomorphological features of the surrounding environment, is one of the main objectives of this study.This research is based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and scenario writing model as well as statistical forecasting method. In these methods, EXCEL and ARC GIS soft wares have been used to predict the damages and to select the appropriate location for the construction of the road network, respectively. This regarding to environmental factors and geomorphology when selecting and constructing this communication highway can provide a probability high percentage of environmental hazards. In this study, the amount of risk and hazard was measured and it was found that according to the effective parameters, Base on the effective parameters and amount of risk and hazard measurement of study, the eastern part is in a high-risk area. in terms of human statistics, in 7years the death toll has increased from 19 to 509 person, which indicates an increase risk rate for future periods.

Construction projects involve many groups with different goals, which each of them is exposed to many risks. In practice, different project stakeholders have different understandings of project risks. Each of which identifies and analyzes project risks without relying on a common methodology. For this reason, in most construction projects, discussing project risks and decision-making based on risk is a common problem that causes differences between project parties. Therefore, risk management in construction projects is a fundamental challenge. This research has been formed to improve the project risk management process with emphasis on construction projects; and use library resources, has investigated and compared the risk sub-processes in the models presented after 1990. By identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different models, a new method of risk management has been proposed. The proposed method consists of a combination of the PMBOK standard and the SHAMPU model and supports sub-processes that have received less attention in models, such as project definition, decision-making based on benefit/cost and Implementation Management. The addition of these sub-processes has been due to the specific nature of construction projects. These sub-processes can assess risks in more detail than existing models, and effectively help the project stakeholders to achieve a common understanding of risks in identifying and analyzing project risks.

Iranian companies have been led to seek opportunities arise from existing restrictions in domestic markets and potential opportunities in international markets. Despite their initial attractiveness, overseas projects involve high levels of opportunities, challenges, and risks, making successful completion of these projects challenging for contractors, clients, and investors. On the other hand, by using management tools that identify, evaluate, and plan for timely and appropriate response to risks, technical, financial and temporal losses can be reduced and profitability can be increased simultaneously. Problems faced by Iranian companies in overseas projects are almost identical and a comprehensive list of potential risks and challenges can be assembled using the prior projects’ experiences and experts’ opinions. Although the probability of occurrence and impact of the aforementioned risks are different in each project, it is possible to measure the impact of these risks, and to predict the substantial risks with the factor of relative importance. Because procurement management is one of the most challenging parts of international projects, In this research, at first, it is tried to identify the influential factors in overseas projects by collecting the views of selected experts of statistical population, researching two case studies, and implementing Delphi rules. Secondly, based on the type of the impact they had on the procurement area, risks were prioritized and categorized according to project phases. Finally, a general scheme is proposed for implementing risk management in procurement department of international projects

Lack of government resources and severe need for infrastructure development facilities, governments need to attract the private sector in the country's infrastructure projects, BOT can be considered a reliable way to attract private capital, our country has also used this method in recent years. For all its benefits to the BOT system, there is plenty of experience with BOT projects around the world that has failed or at least failed to achieve its intended purpose; They warn us in choosing this method. The aim of this study was to investigate and rank the risks inside and outside the project in BOT projects using library studies and combining it with field surveys. The continuation of identified risks is analyzed and prioritized using expert opinion collection. For this purpose, a questionnaire was used and to analyze the results and data obtained from the field survey, SPSS24 software was used as the most powerful statistical analysis software and to deduce the results. From the field survey, Heider test was performed on the accuracy of the answers, the validity and reliability of the answers. In order to check the normality of the data, skewness coefficient and elongation coefficient, in order to optimize the variables, one-sample t-test, etc. were used.

As projects grow and develop and become more complex, new tools are needed to help manage projects. One of these tools is risk management, because in an unstable and uncertain environment, one can expect Out-of-schedule and unexpected events at any time. Experts' knowledge is often used to assess the risk of projects, but humans always use words and phrases in their conversations that have no clear boundaries. Fuzzy logic is used to deal with such ambiguous words and phrases. Fuzzy set theory is a method that has proven effective in managing uncertainties similar to those mentioned in construction projects. A fuzzy expert system is an expert or knowledge-based system that uses a set of fuzzy membership functions and rules to reason data instead of binary logic. For systems with high uncertainty where sufficient and accurate information is not available, the fuzzy approximation reasoning approach is proposed. Fuzzy system input can be inaccurate information and system processing is done using approximate reasoning. In this study, the risks in construction projects were investigated by obtaining the opinions of experts in the fields of clients, consultants and contractors. By providing steps, we have tried to identify risks, evaluate them, and control high-priority risks using fuzzy logic and expert systems.