Designing an Estimation Pattern for Reliability of Launch Vehicle Structure with Bayesian Networks

Failures identification of vital and sensitive products and their reliability estimation, before applying affects design improvement of them. On the other hand, because of lack of data, reliability estimation of some systems such as space products is hard and sometimes impossible. Bayesian networks method is a graphical model with high efficiency for reliability estimation of complex systems and it can also eliminate problem of data shortage. Accordingly, at this paper, first, fault tree related to structure of launch vehicle with liquid fuel has been designed and then mapped into Bayesian networks. Finally using expert decision of system and estimation of model conditional parameters with Monte Carol Markov Chain, reliability of launch vehicle structure has been estimated.