A study and prediction of annuel temperature in shiraz using ARIMA model

Temperature is one of the most predominant elements having remarkable effects on determining the role and dispersion of other elements.It is also a fundamental indicator of spread and climatic classification. Planning based on temperature trend can be used in various bio-environmental issues such as urban, rural and agricultural systems. In this study, spectral analysis technique and ARIMA model were used in a 55-year time period (1955-2005) to reveal the dominant cycles and temperature modeling in Shiraz respectively. The results show that the cycles of 2.5 and 4 years are predominant on temperature in Shiraz. With modeling the temperature in ARIMA models, ARIMA (1-1-3) was selected as the optimal model. The model predicted 0.20 C˚ increase in annual temperature in Shiraz.