isk analysis of new product development using Bayesian networks

Variability of competitive rules in the business world has been made the process of presenting new products to markets have considerable importance. Rapid growth of technology، increase in the risk of world markets and daily variation in the customers` needs have brought a lot of pressures to the product development teams. However، the process of new product development (NPD) is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project، the existent risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand، the Bayesian networks as a strong method in the decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted a lot of attentions in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper، the available risk factors in product development in one of the electric company has been identified firstly and then utilizing the Bayesian network، the relations among them have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in this process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes، the viewpoints of experts in this area has been used. The available risks in this process are divided to High (H)، Medium (M) and Low (L) groups and investigated in the AgenaRisk software. The results from software output show that the percentage of being high risk is 50. 7، Medium risk is 30. 2 percent and low risk is 18. 9 percent for developing the product. In addition، Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.