Forecasting Hydrological Changes in Urmia Lake's Water Level with the Approach to Different Scenarios of Global warming in the Future Decade

Qualitative and quantitative degradation of water resources is one of the major challenges in the way of sustainable development. Features and phenomena in the earth’s surface have been changed over time; the lakes as one of these features and due to having a closed environment are not considered as an exception. Due to climatic changes such as reduced rainfall, increased temperature and also uncontrolled use of surface water resources in watershed areas, distinguished changes are exposed. Monitoring such changes should be considered as an important issue in the national and regional development and natural resource management. Currently, monitoring the coastal areas and extraction of water at different intervals is regarded as an infrastructural research interest due to the significance of coastal zone management and dynamic nature of such sensitive ecological environments. Due to the ever increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions, climate warming is expected to be more intensive during the next century. This warming would very much influence natural processes as well as human activities. In general, it is supposed that in low latitudes, like in Iran (25 and 40° N latitude and 44 and 63.5° east longitude), climate change would have some negative influences on the whole society. For example, higher temperatures will increase the energy demand for cooling, reduce the precipitation rate and degrade the water resources.