A Statistical Analysis of the Number of Domestic Tourists Entering the Metropolitan of Mashhad On the basis of Time Series Model

Statistics are regarded as the most fundamental parameters of performance measurement of pilgrimage and tourism. Therefore, having access to the statistical data of the number of domestic and inbound tourists entering and also the expenses which should be paid to serve their pilgrimage and tourism a destination is of considerable significance. A paucity of statistical data about the number of tourists and related indexes will make some imbalances in the process of managing and offering services and facilities. The mentioned shortage will also make it impossible to prevent the probable crises. The statistical estimation of the number of pilgrims and tourists who enter the Metropolitan of Mashhad is an essential activity. Up to now, just a survey was conducted in 1986 which investigated the total number of pilgrims and tourists who entered Mashhad, and few researches have assessed the number and statistical indexes of pilgrims and tourists. So, the present article, based on a conceptual analysis, has appraised the existing document and conducted studies and surveys in the field of the statistical data on the number of tourists and pilgrims entering the big city of Mashhad. On the basis of time series model (ARFIMA& ARIMA), this article has estimated the number of pilgrims who entered Mashhad between 2000 and 2009 and also has anticipated the number of pilgrims who would enter Mashhad in the next five years. Based on the achieved results, the number of pilgrims who will enter the big city of Mashhad has been estimated 27,654,068 by 2016.