Higher Education Policy Analysis in the Fifth Development Plan Using System Dynamics

Public Policies usually develop and implement as a resolution for a Public Problem. Literature studies show that an understanding of Causal relations and Loops is a prerequisite for analysis of Public Policies. This concern has been responsed with System Dynamics by many Researchers across the world. System Dynamics is a useful method for public policy analysis with a capability for considering their Complex causal relations. To date، such analyses have not been applied due to the lack of Information، Difficulties in measurement of qualitative relations and so on. This Article is going to design a model for Analyzing Higher Education Policies in the fifth development plan using System Dynamics. The Research is an Explanatory Modeling Based on Expert Participation. The Results show that considering Time Delayes، Reenforcing and Balancing Loops is influencing to the effectiveness of Higher Education Policies: The lack of respection to time delayes in goal-seeking (balancing) loops will result in oscilation. So monitoring and appraising policies will be very difficult due to the difficulties in identification of changes in behavior of target groups after a policy implementation and cause and effect with different time scopes. Also، application of planning tools and more coordination between related organizations are essential for decreasing these delayes. Accordingly، behavior pattern of critical variables، time delayes and causal loops have been Identified on which some propositions have been presented for improvement of Higher Education Policies in the fifth development plan.