Investigating the Dynamic Reaction between the Uncertainty of Exchange Rate and Tehran Stock Price Index

The easy flow of capital in international markets has led to dynamic relationship between exchange rate and capital in two ways: where any change in the determining parameters of one affects the other. The present study attempts to investigate the relationship between the uncertainty of the exchange rate of the dollar to the rial and the stock price index of the Tehran stock market as well as the dynamic reaction of each in relation to the other. The findings showed the existent of least one long run equilibrium relationship between the uncertainty of the exchange rate and the uncertainty of the stock price index of the Tehran stock market. Thes results also showed that neither of the uncertainty lags between zero and ten affected the stock price index. Thus rejection of the hypothesis indicates that there exists no causality relationship from the exchange rate to uncertainty in the stock price index for most of the lag duratign. Therefore، there exists a one-way causality relationship from the uncertainty of the exchange rate to the uncertainty in the stock price index.