The Major Asperities of the Alborz Tectonic Region and Finding the Maximum Probable Location of Future Large Eearthquake

In this study, we estimated a local seismic hazard map for the Alborz tectonic region located in north of Iran. The technique of mapping local recurrence time, TL, was used to map major asperities of the region and the asperities considered as the area with maximum hazard probability. The analysis was done on the epicenter of more than 5000 events recorded in 19 stations of the Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran (IGUT), during 1996-2008. Based on the idea that b-value is inversely related to applied stress, we calculated local b-values for each grid and areas with lowest b- and a-values, and as a result shortest TL were interpreted as asperities. Because the ruptures start from the asperities, the mentioned regions have considered as the region with the maximum seismic hazard. The rupture location of MW 6.3 Kojour-Firooz Abad earthquake compared to the recurrence time map and it resulted in the location of this event had showed anomalously short TL based on the background seismicity of region in a decade before it. We computed TL map based on the seismicity before and after Kojour-Firooz Abad earthquake and showed that this large event redistributed the applied stress in the Alborz region. Redistribution by large earthquake led to migration of the applied stress from west of region to east. Based on the microseismicity of the region after Kojour-Firouz Abad earthquake, there are three anomalies in TL map positioned in eastern Alborz. These anomalies are introduced as the regions with maximum seismic hazard for future large earthquake.