The effects of Liberalization in Trade and Finance on Production Volatility in Iranian Economy

In recent decades, the policies of financial and trade liberalization have been considered in most of the world countries, and there are different experiences in this regard. Therefore, this study will review the effects of financial and trade liberalization on the production volatility in Iranian economy (with and without oil sector) by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the period of 1960 to 2007.The results show that in the model that includes oil sector, trade liberalization has positive and significant effect, but financial liberalization has negative and non-significant effect on production volatility. In the model without oil, financial and trade liberalization policies both have a positive and significant effect on production volatility. In addition, the long-term relationships between the variables are approved. The value of error correction coefficient is estimated to be -0.49, which shows the amount of adjustment toward equilibrium values in the long-run. The structural stability tests for the model's strength are acceptable for the period of study.