The Outlook of the Estimation of Energy in Use for the Heating and Cooling of the Human settlements in the Future Climate (Case Study: Northwestern States of Iran)

The aim of this study is simulation of energy request in the future decades for the section of heating and cooling houses by calculating the degree-day index. Therefore, eight stations in the northwest of Iran have been chosen and analyzed that includes (Tabriz, Ardabil, Orumia, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Sanandaj, Ghazvin and Zanjan). Since the northern areas are the coldest regions in the country and require more heating energy than other regions, this issue has caused more recognition of these regions for energy request in the heating part and the possible changes of cooling energy request in future decades which could be an influential help for energy planners and supplanting risk management with crisis management. So, to reach this aim, for recognizing the impact of climate change in the future decades and simulation of degree-day values HADCM3 GCM and A1 scenarios have been used. Since daily data in each station had been required for this study, LARS-WG model has been used for downscaling of temporal and local maximum and minimum temperature. This study concentrates on two time scales that include past period timescale (1961-1990) and future period timescale (2011-2100). The results of air temperature simulation have shown an increase of 1.42ºCg rate in air temperature in the northwest of Iran for the long average term (2011-2100) in comparison to 1961-1990. The most increase of air temperature for Ardabil (2.85ºCg) and the least of this in Zanjan (0.44ºCg) will be predicted. The results of this simulations show a decrease of total heating energy requirement in rate of 2502 degree-day calories and an increase of cooling energy requirement in rate of 825 degree-day calories for the average of 90 (2011-2100) years in the future. Therefore, by the expansion of warm seasons and the limitation of cold seasons in the year, the energy consumption for ventilation and cooling will be continued and most of this energy consumption for cooling sections will be related to regions such as Tabriz and Orumia.