Classification of Homogeneous Climatic Regions Under the Impact of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios Using L-Moments Technique in Iran

Gradual changes in global climate caused the repeated occurrence of droughts، floods and major sea storms. Iran is located at the dry belt of the world، including countries that their water resources، agriculture and vegetation are gradually destroying. In this study، the potential impact of climate change on variations of climatic homogeneous regions was investigated using climate change models and L-moments technique in Iran. For this purpose، the data of HadCM3 model that were resulted from GCM-runs based on the IPCC-SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 were acquired and analyzed for projection of daily Tmin، Tmax and precipitation for the projected period of 2010 to 2039. At the first، Homogeneity test was performed using Cluster Analysis (CA) measures for 40 stations of Iran in base data (1961-1990) and projected data (2039-2010) under two scenarios A2 and B2. Then Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on delineated homogeneous regions. Finally، homogeneity test was done using L-moments measures. The results illustrated that the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) was the best-fit distribution for many homogeneity regions. The results showed climate change affects the classifying of homogeneous regions in the country. At the final step، the possible classification of homogeneous climatic regions were identified for the coming period of 2039-2010 and under two different climate scenarios A2 and B2 homogeneous 2012 regions were determined based on the 1990-1961 base period.