The Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff in Watersheds (Case Study: Ajichay Watershed in East Azerbaijan Province, Iran)

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water resources، especially in arid regions such Iran. In recent years، frequent droughts have threatened the water resources in Iran. Because of the increasing demand for water، studying the impacts of climate change on water resources is necessary. In this study، the impacts of climate changes on run-off in Ajichay watershed، located in East Azerbaijn were considered. To predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM)، the LARS-WG tool for downscaling was used. By using LARS-WG، climate change in Ajichay watershed by applying HADCM3 model and three emission scenarios، A1B، A2 and B1 in 2055 horizon was investigated. The results show a rise in temperature and reduction in precipitation. In the other part of the research، for simulationofthe impacts of climate change on watershed run-off، Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was used. The results indicated that significant reduction in run-off. With regarding the results of this research، for adaptation with climate change، it is necessary to consider suitable management action in this watershed.