Foresighting Based on Cognitive Map

The paper's aim is to present a foresight framework based on cognitive approaches and Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). The proposed framework includes three phases of pre-foresight, main-foresight and post-foresight. One of the main strengths of this framework is its ability to present the evolutional trend of expert's cognition on future which begins from data gathering, mapping their imagination, analyzing and summarizing them to achieve knowledge and understandings of the future and ends by forming the wisdom about it. This trend helps to identify probable futures and determine preferable one. Moreover, focus on FCM in this framework clarifies the role of variables and their sequence which facilitates planning for the controllable variables to achieve preferable future. Finally the components of proposed framework are evaluated based on the frameworks reviewed and success factors of foresight frameworks.