Assessment of Effective Factors on Supply and Demand of Iran's Pistachios Export (Vector Auto Regression Approach)

One of Iran’s major lucrative export products, offered by a limited number of countries in the world, yet having a large range of customers is pistachios. The study taking advantage of the statistics from 1980 to 2010 and with Vector Auto Regression approach (VAR), Impulse Response Analysis and forcast error variance decomposition, factors affecting Iran’s export supply and demand were analyzed. The results of co-integration model reveals the fact that each of the variables of average income of importing countries, the real exchange rate and domestic production of pistachios has a significant as well as positive relation in long-term while production in other countries in addition to the domestic price of the product has a significant and negative relation with supply and demand of the exporting product in long-term. The analysis of forecast error variance decomposition, additionally, manifests the most effect on the fluctuations of supply of pistachios export in Iran is due to the variable itself, while the most effective factor on fluctuations of the global demand of the export, is the variable of Iran’s exporting supply factor, after which the same is true for the exporting price in long-term.