A Realist Explanation of the International Conflict in Syria and Its Consequences for the Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

When the Tunisian Revolution triggered the domino of the collapse Arab leaders, it was not anticipated to reach to Syria creating a deep conflict with local, regional and transregional dimensions. However, when the protests speared to Syria, various players try to exploit it to their own advantage, and an all-out conflict began. Due to Syria's geopolitical location, regional powers such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and trans-regional powers like the US and Russia became involved in the crisis, competing with each other. Considering the nature of the relationship and interdependency between the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and that of Syria, the question arises as to what are the interests of regional and trans-regional powers in Syria and what will be the impact of their rivalry on Iran’s security? As an answer to the first question, it is argued that behavioural patterns formed by the anarchic structure of the international system has been the cause of the Syrian conflict, as attempts at pursuit of survival and power have led to the conflict of interests and a change in the balance of power. In order to evaluate the consequences of the fall of Assad, Barry Buzan’s concept of existential thereats has been used, as it is argued that such an event would have negative impacts on Iran’s strategic depth, and counts as an existential thereat to it. Using Patrick M. Morgan’s levels of analysis, Kenneth Waltz’s logic of limited number of powers, and the realist theory’s statism, the behaviors of four powerful players in the conflict (the US and Saudi Arabia as the opponents of the status quo and Russia and Iran as its advocates) are analysed.