Scenario analysis of land use change of tourist destination(Case study: central part of Noshahr)

Extended abstract 1-Introduction Rural areas of central part of Noshahr have experienced extensive land use change especially agricultural lands (farms and gardens) in recent years (Ghadami etal، 2010) and are expected to continue in future. Because Noshahr is a tourist destination and many tourists have visited here since 1991، so as a result of building many accommodations such as second homes and villas and penetration of land speculation، land use change and environmental pollution have happened extensively (ghadami etal، 2010; Badri etal،2010). This problem has been intensified due to lack of regulatory laws and government support of agriculture sector. So، the future of these lands and their destructive consequences are uncertain. It needs to be applied more accurate tools and methods to understand land use system complexity، effective factors on land change، predict these lands'' future and achieving sustainable land use management. So، scenario analysis was applied. 2- Theoretical bases Scenario planning consists of two main parts: first، scenarios are developed through a systematic process of picturing and rehearsing future situations; second، strategic planning is based on the outcome of scenario development (Von der Gracht &Darkoe، 2010:47). Scenario analysis has become a commonly applied toolin environmental assessment for evaluating future environmental problems and assessing policies to resolve these (Patel، Kok & Rothman، 2007:551). A number of large scenario studies have been conducted at the global level aimed at unraveling the impacts of human activities on natural resources and climate (Verburg etal، 2006). The development and exploration of scenarios are valuable tools to study the potential human impacts on the environment and to generate future policy recommendations. 3- Discussion Land use change has been happening due to widespread tourism development growth. One of tourism activity which caused this problem is constructing second homes. Demand increase of second homes makes penetration of land speculation and increase of land price. In addition، many other factors such as lack of government support of agriculture sector، low income of this sector influence farmer''s attitude which persuaded him to sell his lands. In other words، many factors (24 variables) cause land use change. It was applied scenario analysis for surveying future of these lands، so that three scenarios were developed that all factors were used in three scenarios. Among scenarios، destruction scenario by score of 24/73822 is a dominant scenario in this region. 4- Conclusion The most important factor which caused destruction scenario is penetration of land speculation. Lack of government support of agriculture sector makes this problem severe so، farmer sells his lands. On the other hand، second homes and villas have been built here due to flows of many tourists. So it''s profitable for land and accommodation investors. The corruption، lack of organizations'' coordination which involved in land use management، inefficiency of management mechanism، the role of inheritance law and successive land share، inefficiency of cultivated land protection law، The role of real estate registration law، The role of municipality in unauthorized construction in urban places، The role of transfer property system based on preliminary agreement، The way of implementation of land use laws and other factors cause land use change and consequently destructive scenario. 5- Suggestions The following strategies are recommended for reducing critical and undesirable factors and preventing land use change: 5-1- Implementation of integrated land use management mechanism which can coordinate three main decision makers’ sectors; The executive، Legislature and The judiciary، efficiently and effectively by establishing zonal civil organization، 5-2- Land use laws amendment and provision of long term land use document for The Case، 5-3-Codification and implementation of strategic regional development plan with government emphasis in agriculture and tourism sector، and with cooperation of the community and private sector.