A SUGGESTED METHOD TO ESTIMATE INTERNAL MIGRATION, ACCORDING TO FORMAL DATA

The purpose of this study is to assess the precision level of internal migration estimation based on existing formal data in databases which the government has access to and can manage these data. Also some solutions are proposed in order to precise estimation of internal migrations in an integrated way and aggregate provincial and city level. This study was conducted on migrants who migrated into some parts of Yazd province between 2006 and 2011. The sample size was 878 people from among 335 households which were selected using snowball sampling method. The main reasons for migration were (1) search for a better job and (2) searching for a job. The gender distribution of the migrants was equal. The main migration incentive among men was associated with job and career and it was marriage among women. Half of the migrants just migrated in order to follow their family, and no migration motivation was seen among them. According to information derived from the migrants, precision level of Ministry of Education portal in recording information related to migrant children is %93; but the kindergartens are only poorly covered (%16.3). Total coverage of these two institutions for children under 18, has been computed as %55.2. The health system portals are %38.6 reliable in initial coverage and %28.2 reliable in the sense of regular visit records for tracking and recording the migration cases. It is predicted that recording reliability can be improved to %60.4 by more efficiently organizing the regular visit records. Generally, this rate is expected to reach higher than 90 percent through establishment of regular visit to the family doctor. From among employed people, %39 have the occupations which can be recorded and tracked, like government posts. We can expect formal databases to cover more than %73 of over 18 people through combining the insurance data with occupational data. In total, the city to city movements can be estimated by estimated reliability of %80 using databases held by the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Education, the Social Security Insurance Department, and Government Personnel Portal together.