Agriculture sector energy demand analyzing and modeling

In this paper، the energy consumption structure of the Iran''s agriculture sector has been analyzed and modeled by using an integrated analytical methodology. According to ISIC (International Standard for Industry Classification)، agriculture sector (as well as its related energy consumption) has been classified into 10 main sub-sectors as following: farming and horticulture، water pumping، poultry breeding، animal husbandry، floriculture، greenhouse farming، mushroom farming، fishery and aquaculture، forestry and rangeland، and others. As the sub-sectors are not similar، and the formulations and analysis of the energy consumption structures are different، an analytical approach was used in order for alignment and developing the energy demand model. Considering features and flexibility of LEAP software، the modeling was done by using this software. The results show that the total energy demand of this sector، which was 45 MBOE in 2010، will change to an amount between 44 and 61 MBOE. The average energy demand growth rate of the agriculture sector in reference، high economic growth rate، low economic growth rate، energy policy-making with the reference economic growth rate، energy policy-making with low economic growth rate and energy policy-making with high economic growth rate scenarios were annually 0. 65%، 0. 56%، 0. 83%، -0. 19%، -0. 22% and -0. 09%، respectively.