Ranking of Effective Factors for Farmer Resilience increasing Against of Natural Hazards (With emphasis on drought) Study area: rural farmer in Ijrud province

Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. It is often referred to as a «creeping phenomenon» and its impacts vary from region to region. Drought can therefore be difficult for people to understand. Drought is often classified into three types: (1) Meteorological drought is a period of months to years with below-normal precipitation. It is often accompanied with above-normal temperatures، and precedes and causes other types of droughts. Meteorological drought is caused by persistent anomalies (e. g.، high pressure) in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns، which are often triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or other remote conditions. 4–6 Local feedbacks such as reduced evaporation and humidity associated with dry soils and high temperatures often enhance the atmospheric anomalies، (2) Agricultural drought is a period with dry soils that results from below-average precipitation، intense but less frequent rain events، or above-normal evaporation، all of which lead to reduced crop production and plant growth، and (3) Hydrological drought occurs when river stream flow and water storages in aquifers، lakes، or reservoirs fall below long-term mean levels. Hydrological drought develops more slowly because it involves stored water that is depleted but not replenished. A lack of precipitation often triggers agricultural and hydrological droughts، but other factors، including more intense but less frequent precipitation، poor water management، and erosion، can also cause or enhance these droughts. Drought is different than aridity، which is a permanent feature of climate in regions where low precipitation is the norm، as in a desert. So many factors are important in drought creating. Human factors، such as water demand and water management، can exacerbate the impact that drought has on a region. Because of the interplay between a natural drought event and various human factors، drought means different things to different people. In practice، drought is defined in a number of ways that reflect various perspectives and interests. Three commonly used definitions for drought are based on: agricultural، Meteorological and Hydrological indexes. Of all natural disasters، drought is the most gradual and hard to predict، also are among the most costly weather related events، in terms of economics and loss of life. Iran country، because of its position on drought belt extremely is exposed to drought and the damage of this creeper disaster. Main affect of this disaster are tangible in agricultural dimension and for this reason، after drought happening، the different reactions could be observable from farmers. Amount of Damages and lesions in economic، environmental and social aspect and also، farmer’s resistance in front of this disaster are appearance from variety way. Community and farmers Resilience are one of the main instruments for precaution of crisis creating in result of living in dangerous place. Desertification and leaving the farmlands by farmers are the common impacts of this disaster that happen because of weakness in drought management and Expresses low levels of resiliency and flexibly in different dimension. The recent drought in Iran and its damages are the alarm of farmer’s vulnerability in front of this phenomenon. Study Area: Ijrud County is one of the most hazard prone areas in Zanjan province about drought disaster. This County is a county in Zanjan Province in Iran. The capital of the county is Zarrinabad. At the 2006 census، its population was 35،661، in 9،029 families. The county is subdivided into two districts: the Central District and Halab District. The county has two cities: Zarrinabad and Halab. Agricultural production is one of the most important aspects of economic growth in Ijrud rural areas. In recent years، decreasing rainfall rate، weather warming، misuse of water resource and inappropriate irrigation systems are the main reason for drought event in this area and resiliency of farmer are so low in front of it. Rural Resistant and resiliency a mount are different and is depended to so many factors. For this study، we chose 20 rural of Golabar rural district that have 3176 farmer family and chose 388 farmers as sample community by Cochran formula. The main purpose of this study is ranking the effective factor in farmer resilience. This study has been made by using of descriptive- survey methodology and by data gathering of 388 farmers in Ijrud region، through of questionnaire. After community sample size determination، questionnaires design based on extracted indexes and complete by 388 farmers that were chose by Cochran model. After data entry، VIKOR model from multi-criteria decision-making techniques was used to analyze the data. Therefore، we have three stages for this process: - Determination of indexes and measurements of farmer’s resilience based on theorical literature and studies and in three dimensions (policies and governmental aid، economical –social capacities and local practices). - Determination of affections amount of each of these factors and indexes by using of statistical approaches. - And finally، ranking of important factor in farmers resilience in front of drought by using of MCDM techniques. Data gathered from case study area based on questionnaire method and had been analyzed by SPSS and MCDM techniques. 4. Result and Discussion T-test result indicates the low level average factors in local farmer’s resilience. This is especially obvious in governmental supports and strategies dimension. Also، the result of VIKOR technique indicate that based on farmers attitude، the insurance development، Warning System about drought disaster، damage assessment and Indigenous knowledge and using of it، are the most important factors for resilience increasing in farmers and in front of drought. In new pattern of risk and hazard management، in addition of emphasis on structural and non structural management before of hazard happening، recovery and returning of community and its people after disaster occurring will be important. Drought is one of these hazards that need to be managed in all of period: before، among and after occurring. We have tow category of definition about phenomena as like drought: Conceptual and operational definition. Conceptual definitions، formulated in general terms، help people understand the concept of drought. For example: Drought is a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops، resulting in loss of yield. Conceptual definitions may also be important in establishing drought policy. For example، Australian drought policy incorporates an understanding of normal climate variability into its definition of drought. The country provides financial assistance to farmers only under “exceptional drought circumstances،” when drought conditions are beyond those that could be considered part of normal risk management. Declarations of exceptional drought are based on science-driven assessments. Previously، when drought was less well defined from a policy standpoint and less well understood by farmers، some farmers in the semiarid Australian climate claimed drought assistance every few years. Operational definitions help define the onset، severity، and end of droughts. No single operational definition of drought works in all circumstances، and this is a big part of why policy makers، resource planners، and others have more trouble recognizing and planning for drought than they do for other natural disasters. In fact، most drought planners now rely on mathematic indices to decide when to start implementing water conservation or drought response measure. Identifying the factors of resilience increasing، is the main stage for natural hazard vulnerability reduction، especially in rural area that people life style is depend on environmental potential such as water، land and…. Based on the final result، the planning for resilience improvement need to having a long term strategies and local government offers، awareness about insurance benefits and capability for drought prediction are the most solution that could increase rural farmer resilience.