Indirect Estimation of Infant and Child Mortality Rates in Iran: Using 2006 and 2011 Census Data

Background and Infant mortality rate (IMR) is one of the most important indices and a human development index (HDI). This study was designed to estimate the IMR, under-five mortality rate (U5MR), life expectancy (LE) at birth in Iran and 31 provinces and to compare the results in five-year intervals using 2006 and 2011 census data. In a cross-sectional study we used Cole-Demeny West (CD West) model using indirect method to estimate the childhood mortality rates, life expectancy at birth, number of children ever born (CEB) and children surviving (CS) rat. The analyses were performed in QFive program of MORTPAK 4.3 software. IMR, U5MR, mortality rate in children aged 1- 4 and LE at birth for 2006 census were estimated to be 47.3, 14.5, 61.2 per 1000 live births and 64.4 years, respectively. Whereas, for 2011 census, they were calculated 21.9, 4.1, 25.9 per 1000 live births and 72.1 years, respectively. The maximum IMR and U5MR for 2011 were calculated in Sistan and Baloochestan (31.8, 38.8), Southern Khorasan (30.9, 37.7) and Semnan (29.9, 36.3) per 1000 live births. The minimum IMR and U5MR for 2011 were observed in Qom (13.5, 15.6), Mazandaran (13.8, 16) and Tehran (15.8, 18.4) per 1000 live births. The results indicate childhood mortality rates have declined dramatically during the five-year interval. In addition, ranking the provinces in terms of childhood mortality rates and LE can be used in detecting provinces poor in reproductive and child health and finally pave the way for adapting long- term health strategies.